1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on polyester is "oscillating", expected to be mainly on the strong side, and the trading strategy for the unilateral position is to wait and see [4] 2. Core View of the Report - PX supply is tight and polyester exports may increase. The PX market price rebounds due to multiple factors, but production is limited by high gasoline profit margins and low benzene prices. Polyester downstream load remains at about 90%, and the inventory of polyester factories is optimistic. The PTA port inventory is accumulating, the PTA basis is weak, and the profit is at a low level. The PTA price is at a neutral - low position, and the macro - policy has a neutral impact. Overall, there is no obvious driving force, and it is expected to be mainly on the strong side [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: PX market price rebounds. Although some planned maintenance has ended and production capacity is gradually recovering, PX output is still limited. Gasoline profit surge and low benzene price lead to reduced raw material input in aromatic hydrocarbon devices and lower load of reforming and STDP devices, restricting PX supply. PTA device maintenance increases slightly [4] - **Demand**: Polyester downstream load maintains at about 90%, the inventory of polyester factories is optimistic, and the downstream weaving performance is good recently [4] - **Inventory**: PTA port inventory accumulates 160,000 tons this week, and the market is continuously accumulating inventory [4] - **Basis**: PTA basis continues to be weak, and PTA profit remains at a low level [4] - **Profit**: The spread between PX and naphtha reaches $250, and the PTA processing fee remains at a low level of about 200 [4] - **Valuation**: PTA price is at a neutral - low position. With the decline of reforming device profit, the absolute PTA price rebounds under the tight PX situation [4] - **Macro - policy**: Geopolitical events such as the attack in the Black Sea port have a neutral impact [4] - **Investment view**: Oscillating, expected to be mainly on the strong side; trading strategy: unilateral position, wait and see [4] 3.2 Oil Product Fundamentals Overview - **Crude oil**: On November 12, OPEC changed its estimate of the global oil market from deficit to surplus due to higher - than - expected US production and increased OPEC supply. The OPEC + alliance may pause further production increases in Q1 2026. Geopolitical events such as the so - called "drug - busting" action of the US against Venezuela also affect the market [8] - **Gasoline**: US gasoline inventory is continuously decreasing. Gasoline cracking profit strengthens, increasing blending demand. The North American refinery start - up rate drops to 86.6%, crude oil inventory decreases by 6.9 million barrels, and imports also decline significantly. The low US gasoline inventory supports the aromatic hydrocarbon market, and high - octane aromatic hydrocarbon prices are strong. European refineries face challenges, and Ebob gasoline prices rise [25] 3.3 Aromatic Hydrocarbon Fundamentals Overview - **Supply contraction**: PX supply contracts, waiting for the annual contract negotiation results. Asian naphtha price strengthens but cracking profit is under pressure. South Korea reduces reforming device load due to declining aromatic hydrocarbon profit. Some Southeast Asian devices are under maintenance, promoting the expansion of Asian gasoline profit [44] - **Arbitrage space**: The cross - regional arbitrage space for aromatic hydrocarbons is opened, and physical goods circulation is in progress. The US - Asia spread of mixed xylene is about $257, theoretically supporting arbitrage imports [49] - **Profit situation**: Selective disproportionation profit declines, and reforming device maintenance increases. Pure benzene price rebounds slightly but still suppresses disproportionation profit. Gasoline reforming and aromatic hydrocarbon reforming profits both recover [45][55] - **PX situation**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The PX market price rebounds, but production is limited. China's PTA production is close to a historical high, supporting PX consumption [55] 3.4 Polyester Fundamentals Overview - **Ethylene glycol**: East China ethylene glycol port inventory increases significantly. With new device commissioning, supply pressure increases. Coal - based ethylene glycol profit recovers. Sino - US trade negotiation progress is expected to boost textile and clothing export demand [78] - **Polyester**: Polyester maintains a high load, and weaving load is optimistic. Export demand may boost the market. Under the background of tight PX supply and stable polyester start - up, polyester exports are expected to increase due to favorable overseas export policies and improved Sino - US trade relations [65][88]