Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Since Q4, PX downstream demand has improved with certain support. With positive news such as the China-US tariff meeting and anti-involution, PX has maintained a strong pattern. Since late December, the cost side has continuously risen, and PX has seen a significant increase. Although the efficiency was good before the Spring Festival and the long - term outlook is positive, there is a lack of further support from the supply - demand side. The strong absolute price trend is mainly due to the strong support of crude oil. In the short term, after the Spring Festival, the main contract switches to 2605, with a strong expectation during the maintenance season. However, driven by high efficiency, domestic and foreign supply has returned, and the production enthusiasm remains strong, alleviating the previous expectation of supply shortage. [5] - For pure benzene, overall, affected by the successive implementation of new production capacities, domestic production has significantly increased. Coupled with the oversupply in the overseas market, the overall supply - demand situation still exerts a negative impact on the pure benzene price. In February, downstream enterprises gradually went on holiday, and the market was dull. The high inventory and high import volume at the port are difficult to quickly reduce, and inventory may continue to accumulate from March. In the short term, after the Spring Festival, logistics and transportation return to normal, downstream factories have restocking expectations, and refineries' bullish sentiment remains. With the continuation of styrene profit after the Spring Festival, the new consumption still supports the demand side of pure benzene, and there is still an expectation of the approaching peak season in the short term. [6] - Since November 2025, the supply - demand structure of styrene has improved. With domestic factories successively shutting down for maintenance and reducing loads, styrene output has decreased, port inventory at high levels has decreased, and prices have stopped falling and stabilized. Since late December, the continuous rise in aromatics prices, along with the improvement of the macro - market sentiment in 2026 and the rebound of crude oil prices under geopolitical influence, have further alleviated the market's bearish sentiment. Driven by the upward movement of the external market, the spot and futures prices of styrene have increased significantly. In the short term, before the Spring Festival, styrene remained relatively weak due to the inventory accumulation of upstream pure benzene and the expectation of downstream terminal shutdown during the Spring Festival. In the first week after the Spring Festival, the situation at the styrene port was better than expected, but the recovery of the demand side may need a buffer. On the other hand, during the Spring Festival, the geopolitical influence between the US and Iran intensified, the cost - side oil price increased, and styrene followed the upward movement and then oscillated and gave back. In the short term, it is still mainly affected by the cost side and geopolitics. The supply - demand side of styrene is still stronger than that of the upstream. In the medium and short term, attention should be paid to inventory pressure and the recovery of the demand side. [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs PX Price - The settlement price of Sinopec's PX in February was 7,385 yuan/ton, and the listed price was 7,650 yuan/ton, with a slight increase. Aromatic prices traded the cost - side increase brought by the US - Iran geopolitical conflict in the short term after the Spring Festival, and the spot and futures prices fluctuated at high levels. [5] Production and Devices - There were no changes in PX devices during the week, and the maintenance plans for the first and second quarters were gradually announced. The PX load was stable during the week. This week, the PX output was 771,300 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0%. The average domestic PX capacity utilization rate was 93.25%, with a month - on - month increase of 0%. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of Asian PX was 82.51%, with a month - on - month increase of 0%. The production enthusiasm of PX factories remained good, and the domestic and overseas operations were still at a high level. [5] Supply and Demand - This week, the domestic PTA output was 1.4152 million tons, an increase of 5,500 tons compared with last week and an increase of 54,100 tons compared with the same period last year. During the cycle, the previously shut - down new - material devices restarted, and another device restarted after a short - term shutdown this week. The overall domestic output increased slightly during this cycle. [5] Spread - The report presents the trends of PX - N spread, PX - MX spread, crude oil - naphtha spread, and BZ - N spread over the years. [18] Pure Benzene Price - The futures price of pure benzene has fluctuated significantly recently. After reaching a relatively high level at the end of January driven by the cost side, it oscillated following the oil price. [6] Supply and Demand - In January, the national pure benzene output was 1.9464 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.42%. Overall, the demand side of pure benzene improved, and the supply - demand balance sheet showed a slight inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival, with a slight actual inventory accumulation at the port. As of this week, the total commercial inventory of the Chinese pure benzene port samples was 320,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons compared with the previous inventory of 313,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.24%. Compared with the inventory of 155,000 tons in the same period last year, the inventory increased by 165,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 106.45%. [6] Devices - The report shows the trends of the ethylene international market, Chinese pure benzene load, pure benzene cost - profit situation, and Chinese ethylene production - demand situation. [31] Styrene Price - Recently, the main contract of styrene has continued to oscillate. In early February, it回调 following the cost side and the macro - commodity market, and then increased during the Spring Festival under the influence of cost - side geopolitics. The current mainstream price in East China is 7,740 yuan/ton, an increase from before. [7] Production and Devices - The overall output of Chinese styrene factories was 372,400 tons, an increase of 5,300 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 1.44%; the factory capacity utilization rate was 74.24%, a month - on - month increase of 1.04%. There were no new plans for starting or shutting down styrene devices this week. Most of the current shutdowns for maintenance are routine maintenance. [7] Inventory and Profit - As of February 24, 2026, the total inventory of the Jiangsu styrene port samples was 158,100 tons, an increase of 61,900 tons compared with the previous period, an increase of 64.35%. The commercial inventory was 87,200 tons, an increase of 33,200 tons compared with the previous period, an increase of 61.48%. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, inventory accumulated during the festival. After the Spring Festival, the delivery of styrene to downstream enterprises is relatively large, and the arrival and warehousing may decrease. With the recovery and improvement of downstream output, the expectation of picking up goods has increased, and there is an expectation of a slight inventory reduction at the Jiangsu styrene port at the end of the month. The average profit of non - integrated styrene devices in China in this cycle was 419 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton compared with the previous cycle, a month - on - month decrease of 14.34%. On February 26, the daily profit of non - integrated styrene devices in China was 516 yuan/ton, an increase of 44 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day, a month - on - month increase of 9.27%; theoretically, the cash - flow cost of domestic non - integrated styrene devices was 6,924 yuan/ton, and the cash - flow profit was 816 yuan/ton. [7] Downstream - The consumption of the main downstream products of styrene (EPS, PS, ABS) in China was 252,100 tons, a decrease of 8,300 tons compared with last week, a month - on - month decrease of 3.19% (statistics up to the last week before the Spring Festival). After the Spring Festival, except for the decrease in the output of PS, the output of other products such as EPS, PS, and UPR increased, and the overall demand for styrene increased. [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the text 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, the TA has turned to inventory accumulation, with its processing fees and PXN compressed. Considering the improved cash - flow in downstream sectors, limited further increase in PX supply, and no obvious increase in TA device load, the valuation is becoming reasonable. One can focus on phased positive spreads and long - position opportunities [1] - For MEG, after the EG valuation is compressed again, the reduction in supply increases. Although short - term inventory accumulation continues, the certainty of future inventory reduction is increasing. During the production cycle, the overall elasticity is limited, and one can focus on short - term put - selling opportunities [2] - For polyester staple fiber, the downstream seasonality is expected to continue to weaken, and it has entered the pre - holiday load - reduction stage. The absolute inventory pressure is not large, with medium - low valuation and weak driving force, and the overall contradiction is limited. One should pay attention to the situation of warehouse receipts [2] - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the strategy is to wait and see [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Market Data**: From February 12 to February 26, 2026, the price of PTA spot, PX, and other related products changed. For example, the PTA spot price fluctuated, and the PX - naphtha spread changed. The daily average transaction basis of PTA spot was 2605(-57). The Yisheng New Material's 3.6 - million - ton device restarted [1] - **Industry Situation**: Some TA devices in the plate were under maintenance, the start - up rate decreased month - on - month, the polyester load continued to decline, the inventory continued to accumulate, the basis was basically stable, and the spot processing fee improved month - on - month. The domestic restart of PX continued, the overseas load was stable, the PXN spread widened month - on - month, the disproportionation and isomerization benefits were stable, and the aromatics spread between the US and Asia improved month - on - month [1] MEG - **Market Data**: From February 12 to February 26, 2026, the prices of MEG in different forms (such as coal - based MEG, MEG in ports, etc.) changed. The basis of MEG spot was around 05(-94). The 300,000 - ton device of Shanxi Wonen restarted [2] - **Industry Situation**: The domestic oil - based production was stable, while the coal - based production restarted, and the overall start - up rate increased slightly. The arrival at ports was stable, and the port inventory continued to be obvious at the beginning of next week. The holiday arrival forecast was neutral, the basis strengthened slightly, and the coal - based production efficiency shrank [2] Polyester Staple Fiber - **Market Data**: The spot price was around 6660, and the market basis was around 04 - 120. From February 1 to February 6, 2026, the prices of relevant products such as polyester staple fiber and pure polyester yarn changed [2] - **Industry Situation**: The pre - holiday maintenance of the plate - end devices continued, the start - up rate further decreased to 68.3%, the sales were weak, the inventory increased month - on - month, and the spot processing fee was stable month - on - month. On the demand side, the start - up rate of the polyester yarn end continued to decline, the raw material inventory and finished - product inventory were stable, and the efficiency was stable month - on - month [2] Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber - **Market Data**: From February 1 to February 26, 2026, the prices of various types of natural rubber (such as US - dollar - denominated Thai mixed rubber, Thai standard rubber, etc.) changed. The daily and weekly changes of relevant spreads (such as the spread between mixed rubber and RU main contract) were also provided [3] - **Industry Situation**: The main contradiction is not clearly stated in the text, and the strategy is to wait and see [3] Styrene - **Market Data**: From February 12 to February 26, 2026, the prices of styrene - related products (such as ethylene, pure benzene, etc.) changed. The daily changes of the prices of ABS, EPS, PS, and their production profits were also provided [5] - **Industry Situation**: The production profits of PS, EPS, and ABS changed, and the start - up rates of EPS, ABS, and PS also showed different trends [5]

Group 1: Chemical Industry Overview - The chemical sector has shown strong performance since 2026, with increasing transaction volumes and institutional investment, particularly in the aromatics and polyester supply chains, indicating a potential bottoming out of the industry [2][17] - The industry is expected to enter a new upward cycle driven by policy support and tightening supply [2][17] Group 2: Ethylene Glycol Market - Ethylene glycol production capacity is set to increase with new projects coming online, leading to heightened supply pressure in the market [2][17] - As of February 12, 2026, the average operating rate for the ethylene glycol industry was 62.55%, which is an increase of 2.14 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024, despite being lower than 2025 [2][17] - Ethylene glycol's cumulative production reached 2.3751 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.37%, marking a recent high for the same period [2][17] Group 3: Inventory and Supply Dynamics - Social inventory of ethylene glycol rose to 2.0186 million tons by February 12, 2026, a 10.84% increase from early January, exceeding market expectations [3][18] - The upstream production sector is experiencing inventory pressure due to logistics disruptions post-Spring Festival, leading to limited inventory transfer to downstream sectors [4][18] Group 4: Cost and Price Trends - International crude oil prices have shown an upward trend, which has increased production costs for ethylene glycol, although this has not yet fully reflected in market prices due to the high inventory situation [6][20] - The market is expected to maintain a balance between high inventory pressure and cost support, with short-term price increases likely to be constrained [6][20] Group 5: PTA Market Outlook - The PTA market is currently experiencing a seasonal downturn in demand, but a longer-term view suggests a tightening supply situation due to a lack of new capacity additions [6][23] - The domestic PTA industry is projected to see a significant increase in demand due to ongoing polyester capacity expansions, with a total of 516,000 tons planned for 2026 [6][23] Group 6: PX Market Dynamics - The PX supply side is characterized by stable existing capacity with no major new installations expected in the near term, leading to a tightening supply outlook [12][27] - As of February 13, 2026, the domestic PX production was 758,100 tons, with a utilization rate of 91.65%, indicating a slight increase in production [12][27] Group 7: Bottle Chip Market - The domestic bottle chip capacity is expected to expand significantly, with nearly 900,000 tons added from 2023 to 2025, and an additional 70,000 tons planned for 2026 [11][25] - Recent months have seen a notable increase in processing fees for bottle chips, reflecting a recovery in profitability as the market stabilizes [11][24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bullish investment view on the PTA market, with a long - only trading strategy for the single - side trade [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PTA market is mainly driven by the supply side and is expected to be strong. The PX maintains fundamental resilience during the high - level correction. The domestic PTA production in January is expected to reach a record high, and existing devices will operate at full capacity to meet the growing demand of polyester. Although the domestic polyester demand has declined, the impact on PTA is limited, and the PTA consumption remains high, with the processing fee expanding rapidly. The PTA port inventory has decreased by 50,000 tons, and the negative feedback from downstream polyester factories has weakened the basis. The PTA and PX profits have expanded significantly. The PTA price has rebounded significantly, and the overseas PX device has increased its load due to the profit expansion. The geopolitical risk is a factor that requires attention [3]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Bullish. PX maintains fundamental resilience during the high - level correction. The domestic PTA production in January is expected to reach a record high, and there is no plan to reduce production during the Spring Festival. With no new PTA capacity throughout the year, existing devices will operate at full capacity to match the growing polyester demand. The PX - mixed xylene spread is maintained at around $150, and the PX - naphtha spread has dropped to $335. The PTA processing fee has rebounded to 400 yuan [3]. - **Demand**: Bearish. The domestic polyester demand has declined, and the production reduction of polyester factories has a certain negative feedback on PTA, but the impact is limited. The PTA consumption remains high, and the processing fee has expanded rapidly [3]. - **Inventory**: Neutral. The PTA port inventory has decreased by 50,000 tons, and the negative feedback from downstream polyester factories has weakened the basis [3]. - **Basis and Profit**: Bullish. The PTA profit has expanded significantly, and PX maintains high profits. The PX - naphtha spread has reached $335, and the PTA processing fee has expanded to around 400 yuan [3]. - **Valuation and Macro - policy**: Neutral. The PTA price has rebounded significantly, and the price has returned above 5200 yuan. The reforming device profit has rebounded, and the overseas PX device has increased its load due to the profit expansion. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East may affect the market, but the current impact on the PTA market is relatively neutral [3]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: Bullish. Driven by the supply side, the market is expected to be strong [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Long - only for single - side trade. Geopolitical risks need to be noted [3]. 3.2 Oil Product Fundamental Overview - **Crude Oil**: The situation in Iran is tense, and the crude oil price has risen strongly [5]. - **Gasoline**: The US gasoline is waiting for inventory building. The refinery is operating at a very high load, and the gasoline cracking profit is weakening. The global aromatics and gasoline blending component market is dominated by geopolitical risks. The European gasoline price has risen sharply, and the current premium structure has expanded. However, the upward movement of the aromatic hydrocarbon price lacks fundamental support and is mainly driven by geopolitical premiums and energy cost transmission. If the situation in the Middle East eases or refineries restart on a large scale, the market may face correction pressure [9][15][31]. 3.3 Aromatic Hydrocarbon Fundamental Overview - **Aromatic Hydrocarbons in General**: The Asian aromatic hydrocarbon and gasoline blending market shows a structural trend under the influence of geopolitical risks and regional supply - demand differentiation. The overseas mixed xylene market shows a differentiated trend, and the price is mainly driven by energy costs, local supply disturbances, and gasoline blending demand expectations rather than the improvement of the aromatic hydrocarbon chain fundamentals. If the situation in the Middle East eases or the European supply recovers, the price may correct, but the market may strengthen further as the Q2 gasoline blending season approaches [47][53]. - **PX**: It is the core of the polyester industry price fluctuation. After the listing of PX futures, its pricing is closely linked to the futures. PX maintains fundamental resilience during the high - level correction. The downstream PTA industry remains strong, providing a solid demand foundation for PX. The PX supply is still tight, and the profit structure is still healthy [52][67]. - **PTA**: The domestic PTA capacity is large, and the processing range has long been maintained below 500 yuan. With the launch of new devices and new capacities, the option - based income enhancement plan is increasingly widely used in the market [52][58]. - **Short - fiber and Bottle - chip**: They are in the capacity launch cycle. Since the domestic downstream demand is relatively stable, the overseas demand has become an important variable. With the implementation of the "Belt and Road" initiative, the industry has found new export opportunities and sales growth points in countries along the route [52][58]. - **Mixed Xylene**: The price has continued to rise, mainly supported by the strong crude oil price and the short - term tight regional supply. As multiple devices are gradually restarted in late January, the supply will gradually recover, and the market may turn to a stable and weak trend. Without new geopolitical or device disturbances, the upward price space is limited [54][59]. 3.4 Polyester Fundamental Overview - **Ethylene Glycol**: It has returned to a weak state, waiting for cost expectations. Overseas ethylene glycol prices have rebounded after a long - term slump. The reduction of ethylene glycol exports in the Middle East has boosted market confidence. A 1.8 - million - ton ethylene glycol plant in Jiangsu is operating at about 80% capacity, and due to profit considerations, the plant plans to switch a 900,000 - ton EG production line to produce polyethylene in mid - February, and the duration of the conversion is to be determined [75][81]. - **Gasoline**: The Asian gasoline profit is strong, waiting for domestic gasoline exports [82]. - **Polyester**: The profits of the upstream industrial chain have expanded. The PX - naphtha spread and the PTA processing fee have increased, and the cash flows of polyester products such as bottle - chips, DTY, POY, and FDY have also changed accordingly [100].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the aromatics market, particularly in PTA and pure benzene prices, indicates a strong upward trend in the chemical sector, driven by multiple factors including cost support, supply disruptions, and positive market sentiment [1][3][4]. Group 1: Price Trends - As of January 26, PTA futures approached 5500 yuan/ton, marking a new high, while pure benzene prices rose to 7543 yuan/ton, up 4.26% from the beginning of the month [1]. - The price of pure benzene has significantly increased, with a benchmark price of 5960 yuan/ton, up 13.12% from 5268.67 yuan/ton at the start of January [3]. - Benzene and styrene prices have also shown strong performance, with styrene futures rising from 7124 yuan/ton to 7708 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.19% [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The increase in prices across the aromatics industry is attributed to strong cost support, supply disruptions, and favorable market sentiment [3]. - Domestic and international supply disruptions have been noted, with major PX producers in Asia reducing operating rates to 60-85%, and some PX facilities in China undergoing maintenance [3]. - Market sentiment has been bolstered by price increases from Sinopec and a reduction in port inventories, with pure benzene stocks in East China decreasing by 8.33% [3]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The chemical sector is stabilizing at the bottom, with the aromatics industry gaining significant attention due to its strong fundamentals [4]. - China is projected to contribute nearly 90% of the global new pure benzene capacity from 2020 to 2025, highlighting its dominance in the aromatics market [5]. - Major companies like Rongsheng Petrochemical are expected to benefit from the current price uptrend due to their integrated refining capabilities and large-scale production [5][6]. Group 4: Long-term Prospects - The long-term outlook for the aromatics sector remains positive, with a projected annual growth rate of nearly 13% in pure benzene consumption from 2019 to 2024 [6]. - The supply-demand relationship is expected to improve, with no new PTA capacity anticipated in 2025 and new PX and styrene capacities being released later in the year [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PX market is strong, leading the rise of chemical products. With the inflow of large - scale funds into the chemical sector, polyester leads the entire chemical sector under the "cycle reversal" narrative. The supply - side drive is expected to be mainly strong, and the unilateral trading strategy is to be bullish [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: PX market strength drives chemical product prices up, with significant capital inflow into the chemical sector. Domestic PTA production continues to grow, and existing PTA plants maintain high loads. PTA processing fees have rebounded to 500 yuan, and the PX - naphtha spread remains above 350 dollars [4]. - **Demand**: Domestic polyester demand has declined. Although polyester factory production cuts have a certain negative feedback on PTA, the impact is limited, and PTA consumption remains high with rapidly expanding processing fees [4]. - **Inventory**: PTA port inventory has decreased by 50,000 tons, and the negative feedback from downstream polyester factories has weakened the basis [4]. - **Basis**: PTA profits have expanded significantly, and PX maintains high profits [4]. - **Profit**: The PX - naphtha spread reaches 350 dollars, and PTA processing fees have expanded to around 500 yuan [4]. - **Valuation**: PTA prices have significantly rebounded to above 5,300 yuan. The profit of reforming units has recovered, and overseas PX plants have increased their loads due to profit expansion [4]. - **Macro - policy**: Neutral, mainly related to international diplomatic events without direct impact on the market [4]. - **Investment view**: Bullish, mainly driven by the supply side [4]. - **Trading strategy**: Unilateral: Bullish. Risk focus: Geopolitical risks [4] 3.2 Part Two: Oil Product Fundamentals Overview - **Global situation**: The global aromatic hydrocarbon market is strengthening due to geopolitical risks in Iran. RBOB gasoline prices are rising, and the spread between high - octane components and reformate has narrowed, indicating that blending demand has not increased synchronously. US refinery operating rates have risen to 95%, and supply remains high. Ebob gasoline prices have risen due to Middle East tensions, and some refineries may restart soon. Overall, market sentiment is dominated by geopolitical premiums, and the fundamentals have not tightened substantially [31]. - **US gasoline situation**: US gasoline is gradually building inventories. Refineries are operating at high loads, and gasoline cracking profits are weakening [9][15] 3.3 Part Three: Aromatic Hydrocarbon Fundamentals Overview - **Supply situation**: Crude oil prices have rebounded due to geopolitical risks, driving up naphtha prices. Although refining profits are still negative, reformate supply remains tight. Domestic refinery operating rates are low, and independent refineries partially fill the gap. Some key units are under maintenance or postponed restart, and Zhejiang Petrochemical plans to shut down a reforming unit in January, suppressing aromatic hydrocarbon output. Asian reformate markets remain firm under the dual support of "strong blending demand + limited aromatic hydrocarbon supply" but are constrained by weak refining profits and structural surplus expectations [44]. - **PX situation**: PX is the core of polyester industry price fluctuations. After the listing of PX futures, its pricing is closely linked to futures [56][64]. - **PTA situation**: Due to large domestic PTA production capacity, the PTA processing range has long been maintained below 500 yuan. With the launch of new plants and capacities, the option - based income - enhancement scheme is increasingly used in the market [56][64]. - **Short - fiber and bottle - chip situation**: Short - fiber and bottle - chip are in the capacity launch cycle. Since domestic downstream demand is relatively stable, overseas demand has become an important variable. With the implementation of the "Belt and Road" initiative, the industry has found new export opportunities and sales growth points in countries along the route [56][64]. - **Mixed xylene situation**: Overseas mixed xylene prices are rising due to energy price rebounds and geopolitical risks. North American mixed xylene markets lack spot transactions, indicating weak demand. European markets are in a tight state, and PX is still the main application direction. Asian mixed xylene prices have risen slightly, and the PX - mixed xylene spread remains at a high level of 150 dollars. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is mainly from the PX industry. In the short term, mixed xylene prices may remain strong [57][65]. - **Aromatic hydrocarbon blending spread situation**: Aromatic hydrocarbon blending spreads have shrunk [66]. - **Reform profit situation**: PX market strength drives the rise of chemical products, and funds flow into the chemical sector. Domestic PTA production continues to grow, and PX - naphtha spreads continue to expand, prompting refineries to focus on aromatic hydrocarbon extraction. Domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, and domestic demand has declined, with limited negative feedback from polyester factory production cuts [74] 3.4 Part Four: Polyester Fundamentals Overview - **Ethylene glycol situation**: Overseas ethylene glycol prices have rebounded after a long - term slump. Reduced ethylene glycol exports from the Middle East have boosted market confidence. A 1.8 - million - ton ethylene glycol plant in Jiangsu is operating at about 80% capacity, and one of its 900,000 - ton EG production lines plans to switch to polyethylene production in mid - February. Supply contraction has opened up room for price increases [86]. - **Gasoline situation**: Asian gasoline profits are strong, and the market is waiting for domestic gasoline exports [87]. - **Polyester situation**: Funds are flowing into the chemical sector, and polyester leads the chemical industry. Upstream industrial chain profits are expanding [93][100]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand of pure benzene has marginally improved, and the futures market is expected to remain strong in the short term, but due to the long upper shadow line of the closing K - line, there is a risk of correction. The short - term trend of styrene is strong, but also with a long upper shadow line at the close, and it is necessary to be cautious of a correction. Overall, a cautious bullish view is maintained. Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes due to frequent macro news [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - The 300,000 - ton/year styrene plant of Tangshan Xuyang had a malfunction and stopped production. The inventory is mainly for contract delivery, and there is no external quotation for now [1] - From January 10th to 16th, the operating rate of petroleum benzene decreased by 0.12% to 74.26% compared with the previous period, and the operating rate of hydrogenated benzene decreased by 4.07% to 57.59% [1] - From January 10th to 16th, the weighted operating rate of the downstream of pure benzene increased by 2.14% to 74.50% [1] - As of January 19th, the inventory of pure benzene at East China ports was 297,000 tons, a decrease of 8.33% compared with last week [1] - From January 9th to 15th, the profit of petroleum benzene was 369 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26 yuan/ton compared with the previous period [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - The National Development and Reform Commission will study, formulate and introduce an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030 [2] - Multiple departments such as the Ministry of Finance will implement a loan interest subsidy policy for small and medium - sized enterprises, set up a 500 - billion - yuan special guarantee plan quota for private investment to be implemented over two years, and extend the implementation period of the fiscal interest subsidy policy for personal consumption loans to the end of 2026. In 2026, the fiscal department will strongly support the stability of employment, enterprises, the market and expectations [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - The supply - demand of pure benzene has marginally improved, and the futures market is expected to remain strong in the short term, but due to the long upper shadow line of the closing K - line, there is a risk of correction [3] - The short - term trend of styrene is strong, but also with a long upper shadow line at the close, and it is necessary to be cautious of a correction. It has just broken through the 60 - day moving average on the weekly K - line and then pulled back. The trend near the pressure level should be continuously monitored, and an overall cautious bullish view is maintained. Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes due to frequent macro news [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The pure benzene market is in a state of strong supply and weak demand, with significant upward pressure and should be treated weakly [3] - The styrene market is in a seasonal demand slump in the first quarter of next year, and the industry is advised to participate in hedging appropriately [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - As of December 29, the total commercial inventory of pure benzene at ports in Jiangsu was 300,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.89% and a year - on - year increase of 56.09%. From December 22 to December 28, the estimated arrival was about 39,500 tons and the提货 was about 12,500 tons. During the period, the inventory in 3 warehouses increased and 4 remained stable [1] - As of January 5, 2026, the total inventory of styrene at ports in Jiangsu was 132,300 tons, a decrease of 4.68% from the previous period. The commercial inventory was 77,300 tons, a decrease of 7.20% from the previous period. According to past industry rules, there is a high possibility of seasonal inventory accumulation from January to March [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - OPEC+ agreed to suspend production increases in the first quarter, and the meeting did not discuss the issue of Venezuela. Trump stated that the US needs to fully acquire Venezuela's oil and other resources and threatened a second strike if Venezuela does not comply [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - Pure benzene showed a slight intraday fluctuation, with significant upward pressure and a state of strong supply and weak demand, and should be treated weakly [3] - Styrene also showed a slight fluctuation. Pay attention to the pressure around the 40 - day moving average on the weekly line. It is in a seasonal demand slump in the first quarter of next year, and the industry is advised to participate in hedging appropriately [3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - PX has maintained a strong pattern since the fourth quarter due to improved downstream demand, positive news such as Sino - US tariff talks, and India's relaxation of BIS certification. It is expected to remain in a tight supply - demand situation until the maintenance season from March to May 2026 [3]. - The pure benzene market is in a long - term supply - demand imbalance. New domestic production capacity has led to oversupply, putting downward pressure on prices. Although there is some support from the strong external aromatic hydrocarbon prices and raw material rebounds, the oversupply situation is expected to continue until the maintenance season [4]. - The styrene market has shown a decline overall. Although there have been short - term rebounds, the fundamental supply - demand situation is weak. In the short term, the market is trading on the strength of aromatic hydrocarbon prices and export news. In the medium term, there may be an opportunity for improvement in the supply - demand pattern in the second quarter if upstream production contracts and port inventories are further reduced [6]. 3. Summary by Directory PX Market - **Cost**: International oil prices have rebounded, leading to a continuous increase in PX's external market price. As of December 24, Asian PX closed at $901/ton, up $92.17/ton from the end of the third quarter. The spread between PX and naphtha reached $360.75/ton, up $143.67/ton from the end of the third quarter. Sinopec raised its December PX listing price to 7,000 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply**: This week's PX output was 748,200 tons, with a weekly average domestic PX capacity utilization rate of 89.21%, both unchanged from the previous week. Some PX plants are under maintenance, but overall, the production enthusiasm of PX plants remains high, and there are no changes in the operation of plants [3]. - **Demand**: The weekly average capacity utilization rate of downstream PTA was 73.81%, unchanged from the previous week and 8.41% lower than the same period last year. There were no new adjustments to domestic plants this week [3]. Pure Benzene Market - **Spot and Futures**: The pure benzene market has been in a long - term supply - demand imbalance. With high port inventories and expectations of further inventory accumulation, the far - month futures prices have been under pressure. The futures prices have declined from a high of 6,439 yuan/ton in late July to a low of 5,353 yuan/ton in mid - November and then stabilized at a low level [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: In November, the national pure benzene output was 1.908 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.03%. The capacity utilization rate in November was 76.48%. The import volume in November was 459,600 tons, remaining at a high level. Overall, supply exceeds demand, and many downstream styrene plants are under maintenance [4]. - **Inventory**: As of December 22, 2025, the total commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports was 273,000 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons from the previous period, a 5% increase [4]. - **Profit**: Terminal demand is insufficient. Among the five major downstream products of pure benzene, styrene, adipic acid, and phenol are still in a loss - making state, but the profit of pure benzene itself has recovered, and the profits of caprolactam and aniline have further increased, while the loss of disproportionation devices has increased [4]. Styrene Market - **Spot and Futures Performance**: The main styrene contract has rebounded since mid - month, mainly due to the increase in raw material and external market prices. The current mainstream price in East China is 6,590 yuan/ton, remaining stable. There has been a slight increase in port inventories, with stable rigid demand and an unexpected decrease in supply [5]. - **Industrial Chain Profit**: From December 11 - 17, 2025, the average profit of non - integrated styrene plants in China was - 131 yuan/ton, a decrease of 73 yuan/ton from the previous period, a 127.60% decrease. On December 24, the daily profit of non - integrated styrene plants in China was - 177 yuan/ton, a decrease in losses compared to the previous working day [5]. - **Industrial Chain Operation**: From December 12 - 18, 2025, the total output of styrene plants in China was 346,800 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons from the previous period, a 2.36% increase. The capacity utilization rate was 69.13%, an increase of 1.02%. Some plants such as Sinochem Quanzhou, Tianjin Bohua, and Northeast Baolai are under maintenance [5]. - **Downstream**: The consumption of ABS, PS, and EPS during the period was 261,800 tons, a decrease of 10,600 tons from the previous week, a 3.89% decrease. The operation rates of the three major downstream plants have all declined, and the overall profitability of the industry is not expected to be good [5]. - **Inventory**: As of December 22, 2025, the total inventory of styrene in Jiangsu port samples was 139,300 tons, an increase of 4,600 tons from the previous period, a 3.41% increase. The commercial inventory was 84,550 tons, an increase of 2,250 tons from the previous period, a 2.73% increase [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the report is "oscillating", indicating that there is no obvious driving force, and it is expected to be mainly on the strong side [4]. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The gasoline cracking profit has declined, and the gasoline blending performance has weakened. The economics of the PX industry chain is significantly differentiated. The PX - naphtha spread has widened to $252, reflecting raw material cost pressure, while the by - product benzene price has dropped sharply, weakening the overall profit of the combined aromatics unit. The PTA supply is slightly tightened, and the polyester industry's operating rate remains stable, with the overall load above 90%. Although domestic demand is seasonally weak, the polyester factory's inventory is at a medium - low level, and the cancellation of India's BIS certification is expected to drive export growth [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The gasoline cracking profit has declined, and the PX - naphtha spread has widened to $252, reflecting raw material cost pressure. The by - product benzene price has dropped sharply, weakening the overall profit of the combined aromatics unit [4]. - **Demand**: The PTA supply is slightly tightened, and the polyester industry's operating rate remains stable above 90%. Although domestic demand is seasonally weak, the polyester factory's inventory is at a medium - low level, and the cancellation of India's BIS certification is expected to drive export growth [4]. - **Inventory**: The PTA port inventory has increased by 0.17 tons this week, and the market is slightly accumulating inventory [4]. - **Base - spread**: The PTA base - spread has continued to strengthen, and the PTA profit remains at a low level [4]. - **Profit**: The PX - naphtha spread is $252, and the PTA processing fee remains at a low level of around 200 [4]. - **Valuation**: The PTA price is at a medium - low level, the reformer unit profit has declined, and the load of overseas PX units is affected [4]. - **Macro - policy**: There is no significant impact on the market, and it is considered neutral [4]. - **Investment View**: There is no obvious driving force, and it is expected to be mainly on the strong side [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to geopolitical risks [4]. Part Two: Oil Product Fundamental Overview - **Interest Rate Expectation**: On December 4th, a Reuters survey showed that 82% of economists (89 out of 108) believed that the Fed would cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the December interest rate decision to support the cooling labor market, which was consistent with the nearly 85% probability of interest rate cuts in the interest rate futures market [8]. - **Personnel Arrangement Speculation**: Trump's staff and allies are discussing a personnel arrangement. If Trump appoints Hassett as the next Fed chairman, the current Treasury Secretary Bessent may also serve as the director of the White House National Economic Council, but the arrangement has not been finalized [8]. - **Gasoline Market**: US gasoline inventory is accumulating, and demand is seasonally weakening. Although the US holiday travel demand has increased, energy prices are generally falling, and the RBOB gasoline price has also declined. The EIA data shows that the unexpected increase in US crude oil and gasoline inventories has further suppressed prices. The market's optimistic sentiment about the Russia - Ukraine peace negotiation has increased the expectation of Russian crude oil returning to the market, also putting pressure on oil prices. OPEC+ maintains its production - cut stance and has no short - term plan to increase production [23]. Part Three: Aromatic Hydrocarbon Fundamental Overview - **Aromatic Hydrocarbon Market in Asia**: The refined oil market in Asia has a structural shortage. The naphtha price has fallen due to weak petrochemical demand and the competition of low - price LPG. The gasoline and reformate markets are strong. The Asian reformate has a premium of $81/ton over naphtha, and refineries generally prioritize internal supply for gasoline blending rather than external sales for chemical use. The short - term reformate market will remain tight [42]. - **Mixed Xylene Market**: The overseas mixed xylene market is under pressure, and the price has significantly declined. The RBOB gasoline price has dropped, and the arbitrage window between the US and Asia has closed. The decline in mixed xylene is limited by PX demand support. The supply of mixed xylene is restricted by the maintenance of multiple key aromatic hydrocarbon and cracking units [47]. - **PX Market**: The PX price is stable at a high level, and the structural contradiction is intensifying. The domestic PTA demand is strong, especially after India cancelled the BIS certification for PTA imports. The PX - naphtha spread has widened to $252, and the PX - benzene spread has only slightly increased to $210, weakening the overall profit of the combined aromatics unit. Some PX production units are shut down or under maintenance, and the PX supply growth is limited [55]. Part Four: Polyester Fundamental Overview - **Ethylene Glycol Market**: The ethylene glycol price in East China is difficult to be effectively supported due to the continuous decline in coal prices. The new device production has increased the market supply pressure, and the return of coal - based ethylene glycol devices has also put pressure on the market. However, the increase in polyester export inquiries is expected to boost the demand for textile and clothing exports [78]. - **Polyester Market**: The polyester industry maintains a high load, but the demand is seasonally weakening. Export demand has become a supporting force. The cancellation of India's BIS certification is expected to drive export growth, and the PTA consumption is close to the historical high set in May [4][55].