1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The Asian PTA market is affected by the sharp fluctuations in crude oil and the tightening of PX supply. The price increase of naphtha is much higher than that of PX, and the profit is significantly shrunk. The supply - side risks are significantly intensified, and the polyester may face production decline risks in April due to shortages of PX and MEG. The MEG market is also in chaos due to the tense Middle - East situation, with Northeast Asian refineries facing supply shortages and domestic MEG prices rising due to raw material reduction [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - INE crude oil price dropped from 763.5 yuan/barrel on March 30, 2026, to 740.6 yuan/barrel on March 31, 2026, a decrease of 22.90 yuan/barrel. PTA - SC increased from 1219.6 yuan/ton to 1302.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 82.42 yuan/ton. PTA/SC ratio increased from 1.2198 to 1.2419, an increase of 0.0221. CFR China PX decreased from 1276 to 1252, a decrease of 24. PX - naphtha spread decreased from 133 to 46, a decrease of 88 [2] - PTA main contract futures price decreased from 6768 yuan/ton to 6684 yuan/ton, a decrease of 84.0 yuan/ton. PTA spot price decreased from 6810 yuan/ton to 6690 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120.0 yuan/ton. Spot processing fee decreased from 141.6 yuan/ton to 99.8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41.8 yuan/ton. Disk processing fee increased from 99.6 yuan/ton to 143.8 yuan/ton, an increase of 44.2 yuan/ton. The main contract basis remained unchanged at (59). PTA warehouse receipt quantity remained unchanged at 159653 [2] - MEG main contract futures price decreased from 5359 yuan/ton to 5218 yuan/ton, a decrease of 141.0 yuan/ton. MEG - naphtha decreased from (474.27) yuan/ton to (474.46) yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.2 yuan/ton. MEG domestic price decreased from 5443 yuan/ton to 5339 yuan/ton, a decrease of 104.0 yuan/ton. The main contract basis remained unchanged at 5 [2] 3.2 Industrial Chain Start - up Situation - PX start - up rate decreased from 83.53% to 80.57%, a decrease of 2.96%. PTA start - up rate decreased from 80.01% to 79.31%, a decrease of 0.70%. MEG start - up rate increased from 52.27% to 53.80%, an increase of 1.53%. Polyester load decreased from 84.87% to 84.69%, a decrease of 0.18% [2] 3.3 Product Situation - For polyester filament, POY150D/48F increased from 9245 yuan/ton to 9295 yuan/ton, an increase of 50.0 yuan/ton. POY cash flow increased from 349 yuan/ton to 536 yuan/ton, an increase of 187.0 yuan/ton. FDY150D/96F increased from 9435 yuan/ton to 9495 yuan/ton, an increase of 60.0 yuan/ton. FDY cash flow increased from 39 yuan/ton to 236 yuan/ton, an increase of 197.0 yuan/ton. DTY150D/48F remained unchanged at 10465 yuan/ton. DTY cash flow increased from 369 yuan/ton to 506 yuan/ton, an increase of 137.0 yuan/ton. Filament sales rate decreased from 27% to 20%, a decrease of 7% [2] - For polyester staple fiber, 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber decreased from 8460 yuan/ton to 8320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan/ton. Polyester staple fiber cash flow decreased from (86) yuan/ton to (89) yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.0 yuan/ton. Staple fiber sales rate decreased from 38% to 37%, a decrease of 1% [2] - For polyester chips, semi - bright chips decreased from 7870 yuan/ton to 7680 yuan/ton, a decrease of 190.0 yuan/ton. Chip cash flow decreased from (126) yuan/ton to (179) yuan/ton, a decrease of 53.0 yuan/ton. Chip sales rate decreased from 42% to 31%, a decrease of 11% [2] 3.4 Device Maintenance - A 600,000 - ton/year unit of an 1.8 - million - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Shaanxi has restarted and produced normally recently. The second 600,000 - ton/year unit is planned to be shut down for maintenance on April 15, with an expected duration of about 20 days [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current geopolitical news is volatile, causing significant price fluctuations in oil, but the overall trend is upward. Attention should be paid to the rhythm [1][2]. - High - and low - sulfur fuel oils are supported by the cost of crude oil and a tightening supply, and are expected to remain at high levels. However, the risk of a short - term sharp decline in oil prices after the conflict ends should be noted [2]. - With the increase in domestic temperature, the demand for asphalt is gradually recovering. It is expected that asphalt prices will be strong, but it is necessary to be wary of the short - term sharp decline in oil prices after the conflict ends [2][3]. - The polyester industry chain fluctuates with the cost side. The market is waiting for further developments in the situation. Attention should be paid to the Middle East situation and equipment changes [3]. - Natural rubber and butadiene rubber show different trends. The price of natural rubber is supported by alternative procurement, and the inventory is gradually increasing. Butadiene rubber fluctuates strongly under geopolitical influence [3][5]. - The inventory of methanol is starting to decline, but the supply recovery of Iranian equipment may suppress price increases. The Iranian situation is unclear, which may cause large - scale fluctuations in the market [5]. - The supply of polyolefins is expected to remain low, and the demand is gradually being released. However, the short - term geopolitical risk has compressed the profit space of downstream products, and subsequent demand growth may be hindered [5][6]. - PVC exports will supplement domestic demand. The overall short - selling pressure remains strong, and attention should be paid to the fulfillment of export orders and the Middle East situation [6]. Summary by Directory Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, WTI May contract closed down $1.50 to $101.38 per barrel, a 1.46% decline; Brent May contract closed up $5.57 to $118.35 per barrel, a 4.94% increase; SC2605 closed at 693.9 yuan per barrel, down 55.4 yuan per barrel, a 7.39% decline. Geopolitical news is volatile, and the overall price center is rising. The API data shows that for the week ending March 27, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 1.026 billion barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 3.21 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 1.04 million barrels [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2605 closed down 3.79% at 4446 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2605 closed down 4.11% at 5159 yuan per ton. Geopolitical conflicts have limited direct impact on low - sulfur fuel oil supply, but factors such as the increase in overseas diesel cracking and freight rates have affected the supply. It is expected to remain at a high level, but the risk of a short - term sharp decline in oil prices after the conflict ends should be noted [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2606 closed down 1.53% at 4512 yuan per ton. With the increase in temperature, demand is gradually recovering. It is expected that the overall demand will increase in April, and prices are expected to be strong, but the risk of a short - term sharp decline in oil prices after the conflict ends should be noted [2][3]. - **Polyester**: TA605 closed at 6684 yuan per ton, down 1.24%; EG2605 closed at 5218 yuan per ton, down 2.63%. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak. The industrial chain has different situations, and it fluctuates with the cost side. Attention should be paid to the Middle East situation and equipment changes [3]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main rubber contract RU2605 fell 195 yuan per ton to 16345 yuan per ton; NR fell 240 yuan per ton to 13605 yuan per ton; BR fell 375 yuan per ton to 17350 yuan per ton. The production of natural rubber in Thailand in 2025 increased by 0.6% to 4.84 million tons. The overseas production area is in a low - yield period, and domestic production areas are gradually starting to harvest. The price is supported by alternative procurement, and the inventory is gradually increasing. Butadiene rubber fluctuates strongly [3][5]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the spot price in Taicang was 3365 yuan per ton. The MTO arrival volume is at a low level, and the inventory is starting to decline. The supply recovery of Iranian equipment may suppress price increases, and the Iranian situation is unclear [5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 9000 - 9300 yuan per ton. The supply is expected to remain low, and the demand is gradually being released. However, the short - term geopolitical risk has compressed the profit space of downstream products, and subsequent demand growth may be hindered [5][6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Tuesday, the prices in East, North, and South China markets decreased. PVC exports will supplement domestic demand, and the overall short - selling pressure remains strong. Attention should be paid to the fulfillment of export orders and the Middle East situation [6]. Market News - Iran's President Pezeshkiyan reiterated Tehran's willingness to end the war, but on certain conditions. Even if the conflict ends quickly, it will take weeks or months to restore the global energy transportation system [8]. - OPEC's crude oil production in March dropped to the lowest level since the peak of the COVID - 19 pandemic in June 2020. The API data shows that for the week ending March 27, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 1.026 billion barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 3.21 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 1.04 million barrels. The U.S. has lifted sanctions on Russian crude oil and promised to release strategic reserves, but these measures can only make up for the supply gap in a limited time [8]. Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report provides price trend charts of multiple main contracts, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - grade rubber, and others, covering the time range from 2022 to 2026 [10][13][16][19][22][24][26]. - **Main Contract Basis**: The report presents basis trend charts of multiple main contracts, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, 20 - grade rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [27][31][33]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report shows spread trend charts of multiple inter - period contracts, including fuel oil, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [36][38][42][44][46][48]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The report provides spread and ratio trend charts of multiple inter - variety contracts, such as crude oil internal and external spreads, B - W spreads of crude oil, high - and low - sulfur fuel oil spreads, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - grade rubber spread [51][54][56][58]. - **Production Profits**: The report shows production profit and processing fee trend charts of multiple products, including LLDPE, PP, PTA, and ethylene - based ethylene glycol [60][61]. Team Member Introduction - **Deputy Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute**: Zhong Meiyan, with over a decade of experience in futures derivatives market research, has won multiple awards and has rich experience in serving enterprises and providing risk management and investment strategies [65]. - **Director of Energy and Chemical Research**: Du Bingqin, with in - depth research on the energy industry chain, has won multiple awards and is often interviewed by the media [66]. - **Natural Rubber/Polyester Analyst**: Di Yilin, who has won multiple awards, is mainly engaged in the research of natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, p - xylene, PTA, MEG, bottle chips and other futures varieties, and is good at data analysis [67]. - **Methanol/Propylene/Pure Benzene PE/PP/PVC Analyst**: Peng Haibo, with years of experience in energy - chemical spot - futures trading, has passed the CFA Level 3 exam and combines financial theory with industrial operations [68].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PTA/PX/MEG: Bullish [1][6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second quarter, the supply - demand situation of the polyester industry chain will gradually shift from expectation to reality, with a relatively strong fundamental outlook. Geopolitical disturbances have a significant impact on unilateral prices, and the valuation center of oil - based chemicals will rise significantly compared to the first quarter [4][47]. - Assuming crude oil remains at $100 per barrel, if PX supply becomes further tight, its price may rise to 11,000 yuan/ton, PTA valuation may reach 7,500 yuan/ton, and MEG may rise to 6,000 yuan/ton. If geopolitical tensions ease and crude oil falls to $80 per barrel, the lower - bound valuation of PX is about 8,400 yuan/ton, PTA is 5,800 yuan/ton, and MEG is about 4,500 yuan/ton [4][47]. - In the second quarter, it is relatively safer to layout long positions in PTA, PX, and MEG in the spot - futures and calendar spreads. One can consider selling PTA near - month put options below 5,700 - 5,800 yuan/ton on price pullbacks [4][47]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 26Q1 Market Review - From January to February 2026, PTA and PX prices rose slightly as crude oil prices rebounded moderately. Seasonal inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival limited their upside. After the conflict between the US, Iran, and Israel in late February, the soft - blockade of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted the transportation of crude oil and naphtha, leading to a significant increase in the valuation center of PTA and PX. However, due to more direct losses in near - term crude oil and naphtha, and PTA still in the inventory accumulation phase, the price increases of crude oil and naphtha were higher than those of downstream PTA and PX [12]. - MEG's supply situation reversed significantly during the geopolitical conflict. The supply losses came from three aspects: domestic ethylene - based plants reducing production, a loss of imports from the Middle East, and overseas demand for MEG from China's East - China ports. As a result, the MEG basis strengthened during the price increase [13]. PX: Supply - demand Expected to be Tight, Be Wary of Further Decline in Load - From January to February 2026, the total supply of PX increased by 8.8% year - on - year. After the geopolitical conflict, some PX plants at home and abroad announced defensive production cuts. Currently, the comprehensive load of Asian PX is 72.7%, a nearly 11% decline from the beginning of the month [18]. - In the second quarter, the supply - side risks of PX are still rising. There are pending planned maintenance of PX plants at home and abroad, and if the geopolitical situation persists, Asian refineries may further reduce PX plant loads due to raw material shortages. PXN valuation may have a chance to recover [20][23]. PTA: High Inventory Pressure to be Alleviated, Focus on Supply - side Changes - From January to February 2026, the domestic PTA output increased by 3.9% year - on - year. After the Spring Festival, the high operating rate of PTA plants is not sustainable. Some plants have plans to reduce loads or conduct maintenance in the second quarter. The high inventory of PTA is the main factor suppressing its price, and the reduction of inventory depends on the reduction of supply - side loads [26][30]. MEG: Import Losses and Domestic Production Cuts Amplify De - stocking in the Second Quarter - From January to February 2026, the domestic MEG supply was at a high level in recent years. After the geopolitical conflict, MEG supply decreased rapidly due to import losses and domestic production cuts. In the second quarter, if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, the supply gap will deepen. MEG is expected to enter a rapid de - stocking phase, and its social inventory may drop from a high to a low level [31][39]. Polyester: Inventory Pressure is Not High, Focus on Terminal Order Receipt - From January to February 2026, the domestic polyester output increased by 2.3% year - on - year. After the Spring Festival, the inventory level of polyester was effectively controlled. Currently, the inventory pressure is controllable, and the key is to track terminal orders and downstream weaving replenishment willingness. The terminal demand in the first quarter was strong, and if the geopolitical disturbance persists, overseas orders may flow back to China [41][45]. Summary and Outlook - In the second quarter, the supply - side risks of PX are still rising, and PXN valuation may recover. PTA may enter a de - stocking phase as its plant load decreases. MEG's supply - demand pattern has completely reversed, and its social inventory may drop significantly. The supply - demand of the polyester industry chain will gradually materialize, and the fundamentals may be strong. The valuation center of oil - based chemicals will rise. Appropriate investment strategies are recommended [46][47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical disturbances remain the main theme, and the export competitiveness of polyester products may increase [2] - In the first two months of 2026, textile and clothing exports performed well, with cumulative export value reaching $50.446 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.6% [123] - Due to the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, the high cost is transmitted from top to bottom, and the demand at the polyester end fails to follow up, leading to a decline in polyester start - up. Controlling inventory and reducing load may become the main theme [123] - In the first three months of 2026, the average PX operating load in Asia was 80.28%, up 3.35 percentage points year - on - year; in China, it was 89.15%, up 4.08 percentage points year - on - year. Domestic PX supply may shrink [123] - In the first three months of 2026, the average PTA operating load was 77.98%, down 0.8 percentage points year - on - year. The downstream polyester end may have weak - then - strong procurement [124] - In the first three months of 2026, the average operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 73.10%, up 0.05 percentage points year - on - year. The coal - based ethylene glycol operating load increased significantly. Ethylene glycol inventory may change from accumulation to depletion [124] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 PX&PTA&MEG Price - The prices of various varieties in the polyester industry chain have changed significantly. For example, from December 31, 2025, to March 26, 2026, the price of Brent crude oil increased by $41.0 per barrel, and the price of PTA increased by 34.6% [4][7] - The price difference between domestic and foreign ethylene glycol has also changed. From December 31, 2025, to March 26, 2026, the ethylene glycol price difference between Europe and China increased by 77.7% [10] 3.2 PX&PTA&MEG Supply Situation - In 2026, many PX plants in Asia entered the maintenance season, including those in China, South Korea, Japan, etc., which may lead to a reduction in PX supply [18] - In the first three months of 2026, the average PTA operating load was 77.98%, down 0.8 percentage points year - on - year. Some PTA plants had load adjustments or maintenance [24][27] - In the first three months of 2026, the average operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 73.10%, with a slight increase year - on - year. The coal - based ethylene glycol operating load increased by 5.68 percentage points year - on - year [42] 3.3 PX&PTA&MEG Import and Export Situation - In February 2026, the PX import volume in mainland China was about 955,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.6% and a year - on - year increase of 39.3% [22] - In February 2026, the PTA export volume was 205,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 46.3%. The cumulative export volume from January to February decreased by 7.7% year - on - year [33] - In February 2026, the ethylene glycol import volume was 653,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.3% and a year - on - year increase of 10.1%. The cumulative import volume from January to February increased by 5.8% year - on - year [48] 3.4 PX&PTA&MEG Inventory Situation - PTA total inventory increased. As of March 23, 2026, the ethylene glycol port inventory in the main East China ports was about 1.039 million tons, an increase of 314,000 tons compared with January 5 [54] 3.5 Polyester Demand Situation - Domestic polyester - related data showed that the polyester load decreased slightly, and the inventory days and cash flow of some products changed significantly [57] - The recovery of polyester demand was slow, and the prices of downstream polyester yarns increased significantly, but the sales of downstream products were not smooth, and the inventory of filament and staple fiber increased [58][61] - The terminal digestion ability of the weaving industry was weak, but textile and clothing exports in the first two months of 2026 were strong, with a cumulative export value of $50.446 billion, a year - on - year increase of 17.6% [64][77] 3.6 PX&PTA&MEG Position Situation - As of March 27, 2026, the PTA total position was 1,751,051 lots, with a year - on - year increase of 50,332 lots; the MEG total position was 471,118 lots, with a year - on - year increase of 34,381 lots; the PX total position was 411,005 lots, with a year - on - year increase of 153,598 lots [101]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ☆☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Styrene: ★★☆ (Two stars, indicating a clear bullish trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - Propylene: ★★☆ (Two stars, indicating a clear bullish trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - PVC: ★★☆ (Two stars, indicating a clear bullish trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★☆ (Two stars, indicating a clear bullish trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market is significantly influenced by geopolitical factors, especially the situation in the Middle East, which affects the prices of oil and chemical products [2][3][5] - Different chemical products have different supply - demand situations, and their prices are affected by factors such as production capacity, inventory, and downstream demand [2][3][5] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuated below the 5 - day moving average. The circulation volume in the northern mainstream propylene market increased temporarily, and downstream enterprises' resistance to receiving goods remained unchanged, with a cautious trading atmosphere [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures showed a relatively strong consolidation. For polyethylene, the cost was supported by the Middle East geopolitical conflict, and the supply side provided support. The demand side was in the spring plowing season, but the downstream's acceptance of high prices was limited. For polypropylene, the upstream refineries' ex - factory prices remained high, the middlemen actively sold goods, but the high - price transaction pressure was prominent, and the downstream's enthusiasm and willingness to start work were weak [2] Polyester - Affected by the situation between the US and Iran, oil prices were strong, and PX and PTA prices fluctuated. The overall single - side trend was dominated by energy and closely related to the Middle East situation. PTA was dragged down by inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand [3] - Ethylene glycol's load decreased slightly, the port inventory increased, and the downstream recovery was slow. There was an expectation of tight supply due to the un - recovered external supply of Middle East energy chemical products [3] - Short fiber's load increased weekly, the downstream weaving's load increase slowed down, and new orders were not negotiated smoothly. The market was mainly affected by the Middle East situation and followed the raw material fluctuations [3] - Bottle chip's efficiency was good, the load increased significantly last week, the price was under pressure, and the monthly spread continued to weaken. The load decreased slightly in the new period [3] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The pure benzene futures contract rose significantly. The domestic pure benzene's starting load decreased, downstream consumption increased, and the port inventory continued to decrease. The import volume was expected to decrease, and the East China port was expected to continue destocking [5] - The styrene futures contract rose significantly. The sharp rise in the pure benzene price provided strong support from the cost side. The production of styrene might increase slightly, the inventory might continue to decline, and the demand side was expected to weaken slowly [5] Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol futures rose strongly. The import volume decreased, the MTO start - up rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions increased, and the East China port continued to destock. The domestic methanol plant's start - up increased, the profit of inland olefin enterprises continued to rise, and the downstream plant's start - up load increased. The supply - demand situation was expected to be strong [6] - The urea futures continued to consolidate at a high level. The domestic output decreased slightly, the agricultural fertilizer demand declined, the start - up of industrial compound fertilizer and melamine plants increased, and the urea production enterprises continued to destock. The urea market was expected to fluctuate within a range [6] Chlor - alkali Industry - PVC showed a weak and fluctuating trend. The overall supply increased slightly, the downstream procurement was poor, the inventory in sample warehouses in East and South China increased, and the downstream start - up rate increased seasonally but was still at a relatively low level compared with history. The export was expected to improve from March to April [7] - Caustic soda fluctuated weakly. The liquid caustic soda inventory increased, the chlor - alkali profit continued to rise, the industry's capacity utilization rate increased, the high - strength caustic soda had good support from export orders, and the downstream alumina production was stable, but the downstream traders' enthusiasm for purchasing decreased [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash fluctuated. The industry inventory increased, the maintenance increased this week, the start - up and weekly production decreased, the rigid demand for float glass was stable, the photovoltaic glass had a serious oversupply, and there was a trend of cold repair and production reduction, which was expected to drag down the demand for soda ash [8] - Glass fluctuated. The industry continued to destock, but the intensity slowed down, the inventory pressure in the middle and upper reaches was large, and the downstream was mainly for rigid demand replenishment. The production capacity fluctuated slightly, and the glass futures price was expected to fluctuate widely within a range [8]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The Asian PTA market is affected by the sharp fluctuations in crude oil and the tightening supply of PX. The price increase of naphtha is much higher than that of PX, and the profit is significantly shrunk. The polyester industry is restricted from further increasing production and may even temporarily reduce production due to supply - chain chaos and raw - material bottlenecks. If Middle - East exports cannot recover in the near future, the Asian polyester industry chain will face a serious production decline risk due to the shortage of PX and MEG in April. The Middle - East situation is tense, and the market is in chaos. Northeast Asian refineries are facing crude - oil supply shortages and have to reduce their loads, and the domestic ethylene glycol market is affected by raw - material shortages [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Market Data - INE crude oil rose from 733.1 yuan/barrel on March 26, 2026, to 740.8 yuan/barrel on March 27, 2026, an increase of 7.7 yuan/barrel. PTA - SC increased from 1450.5 yuan/ton to 1492.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 42.04 yuan/ton. PTA/SC increased from 1.2723 to 1.2772, an increase of 0.0050. CFR China PX increased from 1233 to 1263, an increase of 30. PX - naphtha spread decreased from 235 to 120, a decrease of 115 [2] - PTA's main futures price increased from 6778 yuan/ton to 6876 yuan/ton, an increase of 98 yuan/ton. PTA's spot price increased from 6570 to 6735, an increase of 165 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee increased from 141.9 yuan/ton to 167.4 yuan/ton, an increase of 25.5 yuan/ton. The disk processing fee decreased from 349.9 yuan/ton to 283.4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 66.5 yuan/ton [2] - MEG's main futures price increased from 5058 yuan/ton to 5279 yuan/ton, an increase of 221 yuan/ton. MEG - naphtha increased from - 338.37 yuan/ton to - 323.56 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.8 yuan/ton. MEG's domestic price increased from 4982 to 5134, an increase of 152 yuan/ton [2] Industry Chain and Production - PX, PTA, and MEG's operating rates remained unchanged at 83.53%, 80.01%, and 52.27% respectively. The polyester load decreased from 85.41% to 84.87%, a decrease of 0.54% [2] - POY150D/48F decreased from 9050 to 9025, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton. POY cash flow decreased from 514 to 297, a decrease of 217 yuan/ton. FDY150D/96F decreased from 9330 to 9295, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton. FDY cash flow decreased from 294 to 67, a decrease of 227 yuan/ton. DTY150D/48F remained unchanged at 10390. DTY cash flow decreased from 654 to 462, a decrease of 192 yuan/ton. The long - filament sales rate remained unchanged at 19% [2] - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber remained unchanged at 8245. Polyester staple fiber cash flow decreased from 59 to - 133, a decrease of 192 yuan/ton. The short - fiber sales rate decreased from 55% to 51%, a decrease of 4% [2] - Semi - bright chips increased from 7550 to 7620, an increase of 70 yuan/ton. Chip cash flow decreased from - 86 to - 208, a decrease of 122 yuan/ton. The chip sales rate increased from 30% to 67%, an increase of 37% [2] Device Maintenance - A 2.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China that stopped for maintenance around February 10 has returned to normal. A 3.6 - million - ton PTA device in East China that was operating at 50% capacity has returned to normal. A 1.25 - million - ton PTA device in South China that was under maintenance in mid - January has returned to normal [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The expected easing of geopolitical tensions has led to a decline in the crude oil market, weakening the cost support for PTA. With sufficient PTA spot supply, the PTA market has also declined [2]. - The Asian PTA market is affected by the sharp fluctuations in crude oil and the tightening of PX supply. The price increase of naphtha is much higher than that of PX, resulting in a significant contraction of profits. The supply - side risks have significantly increased, and the polyester may face production cuts due to supply shortages [2]. - The Middle East situation is tense, and the market is in chaos. Northeast Asian refineries are facing crude oil supply shortages, leading to a large - scale reduction and shutdown of naphtha cracking units. The domestic ethylene glycol market is affected by raw material shortages and overseas price increases [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Data - **INE Crude Oil**: The price decreased from 739.1 yuan/barrel on March 24, 2026, to 723.9 yuan/barrel on March 25, 2026, a decrease of 15.20 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA - SC**: The value increased from 1322.9 yuan/ton on March 24 to 1331.3 yuan/ton on March 25, an increase of 8.46 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA/SC (Ratio)**: It increased from 1.2463 on March 24 to 1.2531 on March 25, an increase of 0.0068 [2]. - **CFR China PX**: The price decreased from 1227 to 1208, a decrease of 19 [2]. - **PX - Naphtha Spread**: It increased from 38 to 120, an increase of 82 [2]. - **PTA**: The main futures price decreased from 6694 yuan/ton to 6592 yuan/ton, a decrease of 102.0 yuan/ton; the spot price decreased from 6725 to 6470, a decrease of 255.0 yuan/ton; the spot processing fee decreased from 233.6 yuan/ton to 205.4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28.2 yuan/ton; the disk processing fee decreased from 307.6 yuan/ton to 307.4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.2 yuan/ton; the main basis increased from (75) to (68), an increase of 7.0; the number of PTA warehouse receipts increased from 147973 to 148915, an increase of 942 [2]. - **MEG**: The main futures price decreased from 5119 yuan/ton to 5036 yuan/ton, a decrease of 83.0 yuan/ton; MEG - naphtha decreased from (397.69) to (425.88), a decrease of 28.2; MEG domestic price decreased from 5223 to 4946, a decrease of 277.0; the main basis decreased from - 50 to - 60, a decrease of - 10.0 [2]. - **Industrial Chain Operating Rates**: PX operating rate remained at 83.53%; PTA operating rate remained at 80.01%; MEG operating rate increased from 51.87% to 52.27%, an increase of 0.40%; polyester load decreased from 85.44% to 85.41%, a decrease of - 0.03% [2]. - **Polyester Filament**: POY150D/48F remained at 9075; POY cash flow increased from 325 to 636, an increase of 311.0; FDY150D/96F remained at 9330; FDY cash flow increased from 80 to 391, an increase of 311.0; DTY150D/48F remained at 10455; DTY cash flow increased from 505 to 816, an increase of 311.0; filament sales increased from 13% to 30%, an increase of 17% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple decreased from 8400 to 8060, a decrease of 340; staple fiber cash flow decreased from 0 to (29), a decrease of - 29.0; staple fiber sales increased from 57% to 78%, an increase of 21% [2]. - **Polyester Chips**: Semi - bright chips decreased from 7590 to 7410, a decrease of 180.0; chip cash flow increased from (260) to (129), an increase of 131.0; chip sales decreased from 33% to 26%, a decrease of - 7% [2]. Device Maintenance - A 2.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China, which was shut down for maintenance around February 10, has returned to normal. A 3.6 - million - ton PTA device in East China, which was operating at 50% capacity, has also returned to normal. A 1.25 - million - ton PTA device in South China, which was under maintenance in mid - January, has returned to normal [2].

1. Report Investment Ratings - Urea: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Polypropylene: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - PX: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Propylene: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] 2. Core Views - The chemical market is significantly affected by the Middle East situation, especially the oil price fluctuations [2][3][4][5][6][7] - Different chemical products have different supply - demand situations and price trends, and the market sentiment is complex [2][3][4][5][6][7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Olefins - Polyolefins - The main contracts of olefin futures closed down. International oil price decline dragged down market sentiment, and downstream观望 increased [2] - For polyethylene, domestic production reduction devices increased, but cost support weakened due to the easing of the Middle East situation [2] - For polypropylene, high - price transactions faced pressure, and downstream enterprises' profit was squeezed, with weak order - taking and low willingness to start work [2] 3.2 Polyester - Affected by the US - Iran situation, PX and PTA prices declined, and the industry's efficiency decreased. The load of both decreased, and the downstream consumption followed up slowly [3] - The load of ethylene glycol decreased, and the price and monthly spread declined due to the expected decline in oil prices [3] - The load of short - fiber decreased slightly, and the downstream weaving load increase slowed down, mainly digesting raw materials [3] - The efficiency of bottle chips improved, the weekly load increased significantly, but the price was under pressure, and the monthly spread continued to weaken [3] 3.3 Pure Benzene - Styrene - The Middle East situation cooled slightly, and the geopolitical risk premium was withdrawn. The domestic pure benzene start - up load decreased, and the inventory decreased [4] - The main contract of styrene futures closed down, but the overall situation was relatively strong and volatile [4] 3.4 Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol market adjusted due to the expected geopolitical easing. The import volume decreased, and the inventory in the East China port continued to decline [5] - The spot price of Shandong urea was stable with a slight increase. The domestic device start - up decreased slightly, and the inventory of urea production enterprises continued to decline [5] 3.5 Chlor - alkali - PVC prices fell from high levels due to the expected easing of the geopolitical situation. The supply decreased, and the inventory decreased significantly [6] - Caustic soda fluctuated weakly. The inventory continued to decline, and the export inquiry was good [6] 3.6 Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash fluctuated within the day. The industry inventory continued to decline but still faced pressure. The supply continued to expand [7] - Glass fluctuated weakly within the day. The industry continued to destock, but the intensity slowed down. The inventory pressure of the middle and upper reaches was relatively large [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Rubber Industry - The market sentiment has eased with the expectation of a cease - fire and peace talks between the US and Iran, leading to a halt in the decline and a rebound in rubber prices. However, as the domestic rubber - producing areas are fully tapped, supply pressure will gradually dominate the market, and rubber prices are expected to remain under pressure. Attention should be paid to the subsequent development of the US - Iran conflict [2][4]. Urea Industry - The urea futures market is volatile, and the spot price has risen slightly. The current situation of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to change in the short term, and the spot market deviates from the futures. The supply remains in a loose pattern, and demand is generally cautious. Policy factors suppress prices, and the short - term rise in futures driven by emotions cannot be transmitted to the spot market. The urea market is highly volatile in the short term due to the expected escalation of the Middle East conflict [5]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - For caustic soda, the supply has further decreased this week, the profit has increased significantly, and the export expectation is high. Although the downstream demand has improved, the overall supply - demand pattern is still weak. The price has been affected by the Middle East conflict and has fluctuated sharply, and it has fallen recently as the market sentiment has ebbed. For PVC, the futures price has weakened, and the spot price has retreated from a high level. The ethylene - based PVC has a rising trend driven by cost, while the calcium - carbide - based PVC has insufficient upward momentum. The overall market price is likely to be difficult to fall, but regional trends and raw material prices should be carefully observed [6]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - For glass, the spot price is stable, the supply has shrunk, and the demand is weak. The inventory has decreased slightly, and the market is expected to be a game between supply - demand fundamentals and cost support, with a weak and volatile trend. For soda ash, the supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand continues. The weekly output has shown a declining trend due to equipment maintenance, and the downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. The market is also expected to be volatile and weak [7]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - For pure benzene, some Asian refineries' operations are affected, and the supply is expected to decline. The downstream product prices are rising, and the supply - demand expectation has improved. However, the short - term trend is dragged down by falling oil prices, and it may fluctuate with oil prices. For styrene, the overall supply is expected to remain stable, and the supply - demand situation is still tight. The profit has been continuously compressed due to the sharp rise in raw material ethylene prices, and the absolute price also fluctuates with oil prices [8]. Methanol Industry - The methanol market is highly volatile due to geopolitical conflicts. The supply side shows an increase in domestic production and a possible decrease in imports. The demand side has a warming expectation for MTO demand in ports. Currently, the decrease in imports dominates the market, but the sustainability of demand and policy risks should be noted [9]. LPG Industry - No specific core view is provided in the report, but price and inventory data show that LPG prices have fallen, and the inventory of refineries and ports has increased. The upstream refinery operating rate has decreased, and the downstream PDH operating rate has increased [10]. Crude Oil Industry - The current conflict in the Middle East has entered the fourth week, and the focus is on the control of the Strait of Hormuz and energy supply chain security. The market sentiment has eased, but there are doubts about the negotiation and cease - fire. The oil price is expected to maintain a wide - range shock, mainly supported by geopolitics and suppressed by policies. Short - term attention should be paid to the actual通航 recovery of the Strait of Hormuz and the progress of negotiations [11]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, the supply is expected to decrease further, and the downstream polyester has a cost - transmission problem, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand. The short - term trend is dragged down by falling oil prices. For PTA, there is an inventory - accumulation expectation, and the absolute price fluctuates with the cost side. For ethylene glycol, the cost support is strong, the supply has decreased significantly, and the price has the momentum to rise. For short - fiber, the supply - demand situation has weakened, and it mainly fluctuates with raw materials. For bottle - chips, the supply is expected to be tight, and the processing fee of the main contract is expected to be strong [13]. Polyolefin Industry - Affected by the expectation of possible negotiations between the US and Iran, the polyolefin futures market has fallen significantly, and the basis has strengthened passively. The current fundamentals are based on the logic of "strong cost and reduced supply", but the downstream demand is limited. The unilateral price fluctuates greatly, and long - positions can be reduced [14]. 3. Summary by Directory Rubber Industry - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The prices of various rubber products have shown different degrees of changes, such as the increase in the price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex and the decrease in the price of natural rubber blocks in Xishuangbanna. The basis of some products has also changed [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spreads between different contracts have changed, such as the change in the 9 - 1 spread and the 1 - 5 spread [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of rubber in different countries and regions in different months has changed, and the operating rates of tire enterprises and the production and export volume of tires have also fluctuated. The inventory of rubber in bonded areas and warehouses has also shown different trends [2]. Urea Industry - **Futures Closing Prices**: The closing prices of urea futures contracts have fallen, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [5]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The prices of some upstream raw materials have changed slightly, such as the increase in the price of动力煤 in Yijinhuoluo Banner [5]. - **Spot Market Prices**: The spot prices of urea in different regions have shown different trends, with some prices rising slightly [5]. - **Supply - Demand Overview**: The daily production of domestic urea has decreased, the inventory of enterprises and ports has decreased, and the order days of production enterprises have increased [5]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda products in the spot and futures markets have changed, with some prices rising and some falling [6]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The overseas quotes and export profits of PVC and caustic soda have increased [6]. - **Supply - Side Data**: The operating rates of the caustic soda and PVC industries have decreased, and the profits of different production methods have changed [6]. - **Demand - Side Data**: The operating rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC have changed [6]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventories of caustic soda and PVC in factories and society have decreased [6]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - **Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of glass and soda ash products have changed, with some prices falling and some spreads changing [7]. - **Supply - Side Data**: The daily melting volume of glass has decreased, and the weekly production of soda ash has increased slightly [7]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventories of glass and soda ash in factories have decreased, and the inventory days of glass factories' soda ash have increased [7]. - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year changes in real - estate data such as new construction area, sales area, and construction area have shown different trends [7]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of upstream products such as crude oil, naphtha, and ethylene have changed, and the spreads between pure benzene and related products have also changed [8]. - **Benzene - Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of benzene - styrene products in the spot and futures markets have changed [8]. - **Downstream Cash Flows**: The cash flows of downstream products of pure benzene and styrene have changed [8]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in ports have changed, and the operating rates of related industries in the产业链 have also changed [8]. Methanol Industry - **Methanol Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of methanol futures contracts and spot prices have changed, with some prices falling and some spreads narrowing [9]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventories of methanol in enterprises and ports have decreased [9]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rates of upstream and downstream industries of methanol have changed, with the operating rate of upstream domestic enterprises increasing and the operating rate of some downstream industries also changing [9]. LPG Industry - **LPG Prices and Spreads**: The prices of LPG futures contracts have fallen, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [10]. - **LPG Outer - Market Prices**: The outer - market prices of LPG have increased [10]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventories of LPG in refineries and ports have increased, and the operating rates of upstream and downstream industries have changed [10]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of crude oil products such as Brent, WTI, and SC have changed, and the spreads between different contracts and different crude oil varieties have also changed [11]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of refined oil products and the spreads between different contracts have changed [11]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of refined oil products have changed [11]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: The prices and cash flows of downstream polyester products have changed, with some prices falling and some cash flows improving [13]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of PX products have changed, and the supply - demand situation is expected to be weak [13]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of PTA products have changed, and there is an inventory - accumulation expectation [13]. - **MEG - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of MEG products have changed, and the supply has decreased significantly [13]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of different industries in the polyester industry chain have changed [13]. Polyolefin Industry - **Futures Closing Prices**: The closing prices of LLDPE and PP futures contracts have fallen [14]. - **Spot Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices of polyolefin products have changed, and the spreads between different products and contracts have also changed [14]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rates of upstream and downstream industries of PE and PP have changed [14]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventories of PE and PP in enterprises and society have decreased [14].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The Asian PTA market is affected by the dual impacts of sharp fluctuations in crude oil and tightening PX supply. The price increase of naphtha is much higher than that of PX, and the profit is significantly compressed. The supply - side risks have significantly increased, and the polyester industry may face production decline risks due to shortages of PX and MEG. The market is in a state of chaos with downstream resistance to high prices [2] - The MEG market is also affected by the tense Middle - East situation. Northeast Asian refineries face crude oil supply shortages, leading to large - scale production cuts and shutdowns of naphtha cracking units. The domestic MEG price has risen due to reduced raw materials and overseas price increases [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price increased from 773.6 yuan/barrel on March 20, 2026, to 834.6 yuan/barrel on March 23, 2026, with a change of 61 yuan/barrel [2] - **PTA**: PTA - SC increased from 1028.2 yuan/ton to 1068.9 yuan/ton; PTA/SC decreased from 1.1829 to 1.1762; PTA主力期价 rose from 6650 yuan/ton to 7134 yuan/ton; PTA现货价格 increased to 7005 yuan/ton; 现货加工费 increased from 184 yuan/ton to 273.6 yuan/ton; 盘面加工费 increased from 299 yuan/ton to 347.6 yuan/ton; 主力基差 changed from - 74 to - 73; PTA仓单数量 increased from 143452 to 146188 [2] - **PX**: CFR中国PX increased from 1221 to 1302; PX - 石脑油价差 increased from 81 to 162 [2] - **MEG**: MEG主力期价 increased from 5353 yuan/ton to 5574 yuan/ton; MEG - 石脑油 changed from - 425.81 yuan/ton to - 426 yuan/ton; MEG内盘 increased from 5108 to 5478; 主力基差 changed from - 80 to - 50 [2] 2. Industry Chain Start - up Situation - **PX开工率**: Remained at 80.34% [2] - **PTA开工率**: Increased from 76.69% to 79.51% [2] - **MEG开工率**: Decreased from 52.16% to 51.87% [2] - **聚酯负荷**: Decreased from 85.83% to 85.44% [2] 3. Product Price and Cash - Flow - **涤纶长丝**: POY150D/48F decreased from 9105 to 9040; POY现金流 decreased from 539 to - 34; FDY150D/96F decreased from 9445 to 9265; FDY现金流 decreased from 379 to - 309; DTY150D/48F decreased from 10580 to 10455; DTY现金流 decreased from 814 to 181; 长丝产销 increased from 12% to 54% [2] - **涤纶短纤**: 1.4D直纺涤短 increased from 8300 to 8505; 涤短现金流 decreased from 84 to - 219; 短纤产销 increased from 59% to 61% [2] - **聚酯切片**: 半光切片 increased from 7320 to 7700; 切片现金流 decreased from - 346 to - 474; 切片产销 increased from 37% to 40% [2] 4. Device Maintenance - An East - China 2.5 - million - ton PTA device that was shut down for maintenance around February 10 has returned to normal. An East - China 3.6 - million - ton PTA device that was operating at 50% capacity has returned to normal. A South - China 1.25 - million - ton PTA device that was under maintenance in mid - January has returned to normal [2]