6月底至7月上旬，受以伊停火影响，能化品种集体回调，聚酯链商品价格走势略有分化，中上游PX及 PTA走弱，下游短纤走势相对偏强。截至7月上旬，PTA主力合约价格在4700元/吨附近震荡运行，华东 地区现货价格约4835元/吨，现货加工费压缩至300元/吨附近。 需求方面，5月中旬抢出口带来的需求利好持续性有限，终端订单增量跟进不足，5月下旬织造端新订单 进入负增长阶段，延续至7月初。预计7月多数织厂订单量增速放缓，采购心态谨慎，多以刚需补货为 主，聚酯端产销难言乐观。今年上半年聚酯产能利用率尚可，年内尚未出现大规模减产行为，基本维持 在87%~91%之间运行。展望7月，目前长丝利润回归至盈亏平衡附近，主动减产动力不足。 总体来说，7—8月PX供需偏紧，延续去库状态，依旧为聚酯产业链偏强的环节，为PTA带来了有力的 成本支撑。7月预计PTA供应继续回升，聚酯需求承压，PTA基本面转向宽松。（作者单位：创元期 货） 产业链利润方面，6月内聚酯链利润变动有限，中上游利润修复挤压聚酯端利润。6月中下旬至7月，聚 酯端利润被动修复。同时，PTA端利润预期偏弱，现货加工费下降，截至7月初，PTA现货加工费由6月 的395 ...

能源化工期权策略早报概要：能源类：原油、LPG；聚烯烃类期权：聚丙烯、聚氯乙烯、塑料、苯乙烯；聚酯类期 权：对二甲苯、PTA、短纤、瓶片；碱化工类：烧碱、纯碱；其他能源化工类：橡胶等。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （%） | (万手) | | (万手) | | | 原油 | SC2508 | 520 | 4 | 0.85 | 12.89 | -2.29 | 2.45 | -0.00 | | 液化气 | PG2508 | 4,192 | 14 | 0.34 | 4.24 | -0.85 | 5.19 | -0.05 | | 甲醇 | MA2509 | 2,393 | 28 | 1.18 | 81.79 | 19.48 | 71.13 | 1.70 | | 乙二醇 | EG2509 | 4,308 | 33 ...

原油产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年7月11日 宙 扬 Z0020680 | 原油价格及价差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品中 | 7月11日 | 7月10日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 車位 | | Brent | 68.64 | 70.19 | -1.55 | -2.21% | | | WTI | 66.81 | 66.57 | 0.24 | 0.36% | 美元/桶 | | SC | 512.80 | 520.30 | -7.50 | -1.44% | 元/相 | | Brent M1-M3 | 1.87 | 2.14 | -0.27 | -12.62% | | | WTI M1-M3 | 2.43 | 2.33 | 0.10 | 4.29% | 美元/桶 | | SC MI-M3 | 15.90 | 16.90 | -1.00 | -5.92% | 元/桶 | | Brent-WTI | 1.83 | 2.07 | -0.24 | -11.59% | | | EFS | 1.78 | 1 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 7 月 11 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 周四油价下跌，其中 WTI 8 月合约收盘下跌 1.81 美元至 66.57 美 | 震荡 | | | 元/桶，跌幅 2.65%。布伦特 9 月合约收盘下跌 1.55 美元至 68.64 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 2.21%。SC2508 以 512.8 元/桶收盘，下跌 7.5 元/ | | | | 桶，跌幅为 1.44%。OPEC 下调了 2025 年至 2029 年期间所有年份 | | | | 的石油需求增长预测。该报告预计，从现在到 2050 年，全球石油 | | | | 1.23 10 需求将增长约 19%，达到 亿桶/日。OPEC+在讨论从 月份 | | | | 开始暂停进一步增产，市场或将 OPEC+讨论停止增产解读为"市 | | | | 场无法消化更多供应"的信号；一旦需求高峰期结束，可能会存 | | | | 在供应过剩的风险。当前来看，油价震荡运行为主，需进一步关 | | | | 注美国关税政策对需求的影响， ...

| | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/7/11 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/7/9 | 2025/7/10 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | SC | INE原油(元/桶) | 519.7 | 522.5 | 2. 80 | 成交情况: PTA:华东市场PTA价格4746元/吨,跌2元/吨。聚酯工 | | | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 941.3 | 944.9 | 3. 65 | 厂官宣继续减产,PTA需求利空继续发酵,日内PTA基 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1.2492 | 1. 2489 | -0. 0004 | 差继续走弱,加之国际油价对PTA成本提振效果一般, 日内PTA现货微幅下跌。 | | | CFR中国PX | 850 | 852 | 2 | | | PX | | | | | | | | PX-石脑油价差 | 264 | 254 | - ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current geopolitical risks in the crude oil market are still uncertain. Although OPEC has increased production slightly more than expected, the current fundamentals remain in a tight - balance. Crude oil is in a long - short game between strong reality and weak expectations. It is recommended that investors control risks and adopt a wait - and - see approach [2] - Methanol is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. With the improvement of domestic commodity sentiment, the upward and downward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [3] - The supply and demand of domestic urea are acceptable, and the price has support at the bottom, but the upside is also restricted by high supply. The current valuation is neutral to low, and it is more advisable to pay attention to short - long opportunities on dips [5] - For rubber, it is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the second half of the year. Adopt a long - term bullish mindset, build positions opportunistically, and use a neutral - to - bullish short - term strategy [8][12] - PVC is expected to have strong supply and weak demand. The main logic of the market is inventory reduction and weakening. It will be under pressure in the future [14] - The price of styrene is expected to fluctuate following the cost side [17] - The price of polyethylene is expected to remain volatile [19] - The price of polypropylene is expected to be bearish in July [20] - For PX, after the end of the maintenance season, the load remains high. It is expected to continue to reduce inventory in the third quarter. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil [23] - For PTA, the supply is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, and the demand side is slightly under pressure. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [24] - For ethylene glycol, the fundamentals are weak, and pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rallies [25] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures fell $1.42, or 2.08%, to $66.87; Brent main crude oil futures fell $1.30, or 1.85%, to $68.88; INE main crude oil futures rose 2.80 yuan, or 0.54%, to 522.5 yuan [1] - **Data**: Singapore ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventory decreased by 0.37 million barrels to 12.00 million barrels, a 2.97% decrease; diesel inventory decreased by 0.15 million barrels to 9.74 million barrels, a 1.51% decrease; fuel oil inventory increased by 1.33 million barrels to 24.71 million barrels, a 5.68% increase; total refined oil inventory increased by 0.81 million barrels to 46.46 million barrels, a 1.78% increase [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 10, the 09 contract rose 26 yuan/ton to 2398 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 15 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 8 [3] - **Supply**: Domestic operating rate continued to decline by 3.89%, coal - to - methanol profit increased slightly, and overseas plant operating rate returned to medium - high levels [3] - **Demand**: Port MTO load decreased slightly, traditional demand operating rates varied, and it is currently the off - season. Downstream profit levels are generally low, and methanol valuation is still high [3] - **Inventory**: Both port and enterprise inventories increased during the off - season [3] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 10, the 09 contract rose 7 yuan/ton to 1777 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 53 [5] - **Supply**: Domestic operating rate increased slightly, with a daily output of 19.6 tons, and the overall corporate profit is at a medium - low level [5] - **Demand**: The operating rate of compound fertilizers has bottomed out and rebounded, and exports are still ongoing. Future demand is concentrated in compound fertilizers and exports [5] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: Due to the bullish expectations in the real estate market, most industrial products rose, and NR and RU rose significantly [8] - **Long - Short Views**: Bulls believe that factors in Southeast Asia may lead to rubber production cuts, and rubber usually rises in the second half of the year. Bears think that the macro - economic outlook has deteriorated, demand is in the off - season, and the production cut may be less than expected [8] - **Industry Situation**: As of July 10, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 64.54%, up 0.81 percentage points from last week and 5.59 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 72.55%, up 2.51 percentage points from last week and down 6.36 percentage points from the same period last year. Tire enterprises' shipment rhythm has slowed down, and inventory is under pressure [9] - **Inventory**: As of June 29, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 129.3 tons, a 0.6% increase; the total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 78.9 tons, a 1.2% increase; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 50.5 tons, a 0.3% decrease. As of July 7, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 50.52 (- 0.14) tons [10] - **Spot Prices**: Thai standard mixed rubber was 14150 (+ 300) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1735 (+ 30) dollars, STR20 mixed was 1740 (+ 30) dollars, Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 9100 (+ 50) yuan, and North China butadiene was 11200 (0) yuan [11] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 77 yuan to 5040 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4860 (+ 70) yuan/ton, the basis was - 180 (- 7) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 103 (- 8) yuan/ton [14] - **Cost**: The price of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2250 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 620 (- 10) yuan/ton, ethylene was 820 (0) dollars/ton, and the cost remained flat. The spot price of caustic soda was 820 (+ 10) yuan/ton [14] - **Supply**: The overall PVC operating rate was 77.4%, a 0.7% decrease; among them, the calcium carbide method was 80.8%, a 0.2% decrease; the ethylene method was 68.5%, a 1.9% decrease [14] - **Demand**: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.9%, a 0.1% increase [14] - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 38.6 tons (- 0.9), and social inventory was 59.2 tons (+ 1.7) [14] Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot prices remained unchanged, while futures prices rose, and the basis weakened [17] - **Cost**: The operating rate of pure benzene increased, and the supply was relatively abundant [17] - **Supply**: The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation increased, and the operating rate of styrene continued to rise. Port inventory increased [17] - **Demand**: In the off - season, the overall operating rate of the three S products decreased [17] Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose. The spot price remained unchanged, and the PE valuation has limited downward space [19] - **Supply**: The upstream operating rate was 77.82%, a 0.34% increase. Production enterprise inventory increased by 5.47 tons to 49.31 tons, and trader inventory decreased by 0.09 tons to 6.05 tons [19] - **Demand**: In the off - season, the demand for agricultural films was weak, and the overall operating rate fluctuated downward [19] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose [20] - **Supply**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate is expected to gradually recover, increasing the supply of propylene [20] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate decreased seasonally. In the off - season, both supply and demand are weak, and the price is expected to be bearish in July [20] PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 58 yuan to 6782 yuan, and PX CFR rose 2 dollars to 852 dollars. The basis was 240 yuan (- 45), and the 9 - 1 spread was 64 yuan (- 10) [22] - **Supply**: The operating rate in China was 81%, a 2.8% decrease; the Asian operating rate was 74.1%, a 1.1% increase. Some domestic plants reduced production, while some overseas plants restarted or increased loads [22] - **Demand**: The PTA operating rate was 79.7%, a 1.5% increase [22] - **Inventory**: In late May, the inventory was 434.6 tons, a 16.5 - ton decrease from the previous month [23] - **Valuation**: PXN was 261 dollars (+ 9), and the naphtha crack spread was 84 dollars (+ 11) [23] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 24 yuan to 4742 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 15 yuan to 4735 yuan. The basis was 7 yuan (- 29), and the 9 - 1 spread was 12 yuan (- 16) [24] - **Supply**: The PTA operating rate was 79.7%, a 1.5% increase. Some plants increased production, and a plant in Taiwan, China restarted [24] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate was 88.9%, a 1.3% decrease. Some plants restarted or underwent maintenance [24] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 213.5 tons, a 1.9 - ton increase [24] - **Valuation**: The spot processing fee of PTA decreased by 24 yuan to 128 yuan, and the futures processing fee decreased by 14 yuan to 293 yuan [24] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 42 yuan to 4325 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 27 yuan to 4374 yuan. The basis was 70 (- 1), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 33 yuan (- 4) [25] - **Supply**: The EG operating rate was 68.1%, a 1.5% increase; among them, the syngas - based method was 73.1%, a 3.8% increase; the ethylene - based method was 64.2%, a 0.6% decrease. Some domestic and overseas plants restarted [25] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate was 88.9%, a 1.3% decrease. Some plants restarted or underwent maintenance [25] - **Inventory**: The import forecast was 9.6 tons, and the East China port outbound volume on July 9 was 1.24 tons. Port inventory increased by 3.5 tons to 58 tons [25] - **Valuation**: The profit of naphtha - based production was - 644 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production was - 704 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production was 951 yuan [25]

责任自负。本报告仅向特定客户推送,未经国贸期货授权许可,任何引用、转载以 传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权,我司将视情况追究法 险,入市需谨慎。 | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 2025/7/10 | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈胜 | 从业资格号: | | | | | | F3066728 | | 指标 | 2025/7/8 | 2025/7/9 | 变动值 | | | PTA现货价格 | 4800 | 4750 | (50. 00) | | | MEG内盘价格 | 4360 | 4347 | (13.00) | 现货资讯: | | | | | | 短纤:涤纶短纤涨8至6528。现货市场:涤纶短 | | PTA收盘价 | 4710 | 4718 | 8.00 | 纤生产企业价格下调,贸易商价格偏弱整理,下 | | MEG收盘价 | 4267 | 4283 | 16. 00 | 游需求不振,市场成交匮之。1.56dtex*38mm半 | | | | | | 光本白(1.4D)涤纶 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 髪酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/7/10 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | | 指标 | 2025/7/8 | 2025/7/9 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 510. 7 | 519.7 | 9.00 | 成交情况: PTA: PTA行情下跌,下游聚酯工厂进一步减产,PTA预 | | | | | | | 期供应增加,市场心态支撑不足,日内现货成交基差 | | SC | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 998. 7 | 941.3 | -57. 40 | 大幅度走弱。 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 2691 | 1. 2492 | -0. 0199 | | | PX | CFR中国PX | 847 | 850 | 3 | | | | PX-石脑油价差 | 270 | 264 | -7 ...

| L2601收盘价 | 7254 | 7225 | 29 | 0.40% | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L2509 收盘价 PP2601 收盘价 | 7278 7034 | 7245 7006 | 33 28 | 0.46% 0.40% | | | PP2509 收盘价 | 7078 | 7045 | 33 | 0.47% | | | L2509-2601 | 24 | 20 | 4 | 20.00% | | | PP2509-2601 | 44 | 39 | 5 | 12.82% | 元/吨 | | 华东PP拉丝现货 | 7100 | 7090 | 10 | 0.14% | | | 华北LDPE膜料现货 | 7170 | 7170 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华北 塑料基差 | -110 | -80 | -30 | 37.50% | | | 华东 pp基差 | 30 | 50 | -20 | -40.00% | | | PE PP非标价格 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华东LD ...

能源化工日报 2025-07-10 我们认为当前地缘风险仍有不确定性，虽然 OPEC 略超预期增产，但我们认为当前基本面仍处 于紧平衡，整体原油处于强现实与弱预期的多空博弈当中，建议投资者把握风控，观望处理。 甲醇 2025/07/10 甲醇 原油 2025/07/10 原油早评 能源化工组 行情方面：WTI 主力原油期货收涨 0.11 美元，涨幅 0.16%，报 68.29 美元；布伦特主力原油期 货收涨 0.15 美元，涨幅 0.21%，报 70.18 美元；INE 主力原油期货收涨 9.00 元，涨幅 1.76%， 报 519.7 元。 数据方面：美国 EIA 周度数据出炉，美国原油商业库存累库 7.07 百万桶至 426.02 百万桶， 环比累库 1.69%；SPR 补库 0.24 百万桶至 403.00 百万桶，环比补库 0.06%；汽油库存去库 2.66 百万桶至 229.47 百万桶，环比去库 1.15%；柴油库存去库 0.83 百万桶至 102.80 百万桶，环 比去库 0.80%；燃料油库存去库 0.45 百万桶至 21.83 百万桶，环比去库 2.03%；航空煤油库 存去库 0.91 百万 ...