Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, the live hog futures rose strongly, with the 2509 contract reaching 14,300 yuan/ton, a 2.95% increase. The short - term hog price is expected to fluctuate and strengthen, the 2509 contract is trading on the logic of repairing the discount; in the medium - term, there is still an expectation of an increase in hog supply in the second half of the year; in the long - term, the hog production capacity will continue to be realized this year if excluding the impact of diseases [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Content 1. Reasons for the Rise - The diarrhea of piglets in some areas around the Spring Festival this year affected the mid - year hog supply [4] - Under policy guidance, group enterprises basically completed the phased weight reduction by mid - to late June, and the weight pressure was partially released [4] - At the end of the month and the beginning of the next month, the regular slaughter rhythm of large - scale farms slowed down, and today's hog price increase expanded. As of June 30, the daily hog slaughter volume decreased by 25.8% compared with June 27, and on July 1, it decreased by 19.3% compared with June 27 [4] 2. Market Conditions - Today's national average hog price is 15.33 yuan/kg, up 0.23 yuan/kg from the previous day. Zhuochuang expects tomorrow's hog price to be stable with a slight upward trend, and the hog price in Henan to remain stable at 15 - 15.8 yuan/kg [4] 3. Future Outlook - Short - term: The support of the national average price of 14 yuan/kg is effective, the price difference between fat and lean pigs has widened, the short - term slaughter volume has decreased, and the short - term hog price will fluctuate and strengthen. The 2509 contract is trading on the logic of repairing the discount [4] - Medium - term: The number of new - born piglets from February to April increased month - on - month, and the decline in the current slaughter weight is limited, so there is still an expectation of an increase in hog supply in the second half of the year [4] - Long - term: The inventory of breeding sows is still higher than the normal level, and the production efficiency has increased year - on - year. If excluding the impact of diseases, the hog production capacity will continue to be realized this year [4] 4. Trading Strategies - Long - term: Short at high levels; Medium - term: Trade within a range; Short - term: The price is strengthening and testing the upper pressure. Do not blindly chase the rise. The 2509 contract has broken through the first pressure level of 14,000 - 14,100 and is testing the second pressure level of 14,400 - 14,600. The 2511 contract should focus on the pressure effect at 13,600 - 13,800 [5]