1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The market sentiment is currently low, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is weak. On the demand side, the slaughtering enterprise's operating rate is continuously recovering, and the frozen product storage capacity has increased significantly. Although there was a short - term boost in demand before the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, it is difficult to change the terminal consumption trend, and the off - season demand limits the room for future slaughter recovery. Overall, the short - term price - support sentiment has temporarily stopped the decline of the spot price, but the pattern of loose supply and demand continues, and it is expected that the hog price will mainly show a weak and volatile trend. Technically, during the contract - changing period, the current main 2605 contract continued to bottom out, closing down 2.88% with a minimum of 9605 yuan/ton, and the 2607 contract fell 2.75%, showing weak price performance. Attention should be paid to the impact of state reserves, secondary fattening, epidemics, and capital fluctuations on the market [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Disk - The closing price of the main hog futures contract is 9610 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 160 yuan/ton; the main contract's open interest is 187,212 lots, an increase of 52 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 525 lots, an increase of 525 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 60,942 lots, an increase of 2,820 lots [3] Spot Price - The hog price in Zhumadian, Henan is 9500 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Siping, Jilin it is 9300 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Yunfu, Guangdong it is 10000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton; the main hog basis is - 110 yuan/ton, an increase of 160 yuan/ton [3] Upstream Situation - The national hog inventory is 42,9670,000 heads, a decrease of 7130,000 heads; the national breeding sow inventory is 3,9610,000 heads, a decrease of 290,000 heads [3] Industry Situation - The year - on - year CPI is 1.3%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points; the average spot price of soybean meal is 3262 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26.86 yuan/ton; the average spot price of corn is 2448.14 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.66 yuan/ton; the Dalian Commodity Exchange's hog feed cost index is 939.52, a decrease of 3.96; the monthly output of feed is 28.73 million tons, a decrease of 340,000 tons; the price of binary breeding sows is 1424 yuan/head, unchanged; the breeding profit of purchased piglets is - 189.87 yuan/head, a decrease of 48.39 yuan/head; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised hogs is - 344.24 yuan/head, a decrease of 46.56 yuan/head; the monthly import volume of pork is 50,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons; the average price of white - striped chicken in the main production areas is 13.7 yuan/kg, unchanged [3] Downstream Situation - The cumulative catering revenue in February is 102.64 billion yuan, an increase of 45.26 billion yuan; the number of hogs slaughtered by national designated slaughtering enterprises is 31.77 million heads, a decrease of 12.27 million heads [3] Industry News - According to the sample data of key breeding enterprises from Shanghai Ganglian, on April 1, 2026, the daily hog slaughter volume of key breeding enterprises nationwide was 293,405 heads, an increase of 1.11% from the previous day. According to Mysteel data, the planned hog slaughter volume of breeding enterprises in key provinces in April 2026 was 14.4126 million heads, a 4.24% increase compared with the actual slaughter volume in March [3]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Corn: Interval trading [1] - Live pigs: Short - sell in the short - term [1] - Eggs: Interval trading [3] Group 2: Core Views - For corn, in the short - to - medium term, rising temperatures and increased wheat supply may pressure spot prices to correct; in the long - term, the pricing logic is substitution and planting cost, with policy orientation being the key focus [1] - For live pigs, in the short - term, the supply - strong and demand - weak situation persists, and pig prices may remain low; in the medium - term, supply pressure will ease from April - June; in the long - term, the supply reduction before October is limited [3] - For eggs, in the short - term, egg prices fall after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival; in the medium - term, supply pressure is postponed; in the long - term, the increasing scale of egg - laying chicken farming may limit price increases [3] Group 3: Summary by Variety Corn - **Market Review**: On Tuesday, the corn futures fluctuated weakly, with the 2605 contract down 0.25% to 2351 yuan/ton [1] - **Important Information**: Deep - processing enterprise purchase prices, port prices decreased slightly; northern port inventory accumulated, and Guangdong port inventory was affected by imports; corn futures warehouse receipts decreased; wheat - corn price spread widened; 800,000 tons of minimum - purchase - price wheat will be auctioned [1] - **Market Logic**: Short - to - medium - term price pressure from temperature and wheat supply; long - term pricing based on substitution and cost [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Medium - term wide - range trading, short - term correction. Pay attention to the support at 2320 - 2340 for the 2605 contract [1] Live Pigs - **Market Review**: The live pig futures declined across the board, with the 2605 contract down 2.3% to 9770 yuan/ton [1] - **Important Information**: Pig prices were stable, sow inventory decreased year - on - year,仔猪 numbers had different trends, average slaughter weight increased, fat - lean price spread was flat, and 7 - kg piglet price was stable [1][3] - **Market Logic**: Short - term supply - strong and demand - weak, medium - term supply pressure eases, long - term supply reduction is limited [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Bottom - range trading. Lower the support and pressure levels for each contract [3] Eggs - **Market Review**: The egg futures showed near - weak and far - strong trends, with the 2605 contract down 0.32% to 3440 yuan/500KG [3] - **Important Information**: Egg prices declined, production and circulation inventories changed, old hen prices and age were stable, and in - laying hen inventory increased [3] - **Market Logic**: Short - term price drop after the festival, medium - term supply pressure postponement, long - term price increase limitation [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Observe or short - term trading. Pay attention to the support and pressure levels of the 2605 contract [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is significantly affected by the geopolitical situation, especially the conflict between the US and Iran, which has a broad impact on various commodity futures markets [1][8][9][10]. - Different commodity markets show diverse trends and characteristics, with some markets being influenced by supply - demand relationships, while others are more affected by geopolitical events and policy factors. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: The international gold price denominated in London gold rose 3.51% to $4668 per ounce, and the international silver price rose 7.10% to $75.01 per ounce [1]. - **Fundamentals**: There are signs of easing in the US - Iran conflict, but the conflict is not over [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for a pull - back to buy gold; for silver, suggest gradually taking profits on previous short positions [1]. Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices oscillated strongly [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The authenticity of the news that the Iranian president wants to end the war under security guarantees is to be verified. The supply of copper ore and scrap copper remains tight, and the spot of flat - water copper in East and South China is traded at a discount of 60 yuan and a premium of 50 yuan respectively [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Suggest waiting and seeing [1]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract increased by 0.61% to 24,875 yuan per ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 245 yuan per ton, with the LME price at $3475 per ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Aluminum smelters maintain high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate increased slightly [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: The attack on core aluminum plants in the Middle East leads to expectations of supply contraction, and it is expected that aluminum prices will oscillate strongly. Suggest buying on dips [1]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the main alumina contract decreased by 3.88% to 2827 yuan per ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 118 yuan per ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The operating capacity of alumina is relatively stable, and aluminum smelters maintain high - load production [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Affected by the release of new production capacity in Guangxi, the pattern of oversupply is further deepened. It is expected that alumina prices will oscillate weakly. Suggest waiting and seeing, and focus on the implementation of Guinea's mining policy [1]. Zinc and Lead - **Market Performance**: On March 31, the main contracts of zinc and lead closed at 23,480 yuan per ton and 16,500 yuan per ton respectively, with changes of - 60 yuan and + 5 yuan compared to the previous trading day. The domestic 0 - 3 month spreads were - 23,480 yuan per ton and - 16,500 yuan per ton, and the overseas 0 - 3 month spreads were - 0.68 and 68.8 dollars per ton respectively. The seven - place zinc inventory on March 30 was 248,200 tons, a decrease of 1300 tons compared to March 26, and the five - place lead inventory on March 30 was 57,500 tons, a decrease of 300 tons compared to March 26 [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The lead ingot inventory is accelerating its depletion, and the lead price shows a stop - falling signal. However, the import window is open, and the lead battery enters the traditional off - season in April. With the co - existence of the resumption of production of secondary lead and new overhauls, it is expected that the lead price will continue to oscillate narrowly. In the zinc market, the disturbance at the mine end intensifies, the import processing fee drops to a negative value, the domestic smelters have strong demand for ore, and the social inventory continues to deplete to below 250,000 tons. The tower and export orders support consumption, but there is still uncertainty in the macro - sentiment [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: For lead, pay attention to the implementation of smelter overhauls. If the inventory depletion continues, try to buy on dips. For zinc, the fundamentals improve, but the macro - risk is large. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 8355 yuan per ton, a decrease of 125 yuan per ton compared to the previous trading day, with a closing price decrease of 1.47%, the position decreased by 18,817 lots to 201,800 lots (- 8.53%), and the trading volume decreased by 11,006 lots to 172,049 lots (- 6.01%). The variety's precipitated funds decreased by 171 million to 3.037 billion, and the warehouse receipt volume today was 22,313 lots (+ 24) [2]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the number of weekly industrial silicon furnaces in operation is flat compared to the previous period. With the year - on - year decline in electricity prices in the southwest region, enterprises' willingness to resume production increases, and there is an expectation of increased production in the future. On the demand side, the polysilicon industry resumed work in March, and the monthly production capacity is gradually released, with the expected monthly output approaching 90,000 tons; the output of the organic silicon industry is stable, and the price trend is stable. The price of aluminum alloy decreased slightly, but the industry's start - up rate increased to 59.5%, reaching a new high this year [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to whether subsequent measures such as coordinated market control and joint price stabilization will be introduced after last week's meeting. The organic silicon industry will hold a meeting in Jinan on April 2 to discuss production cuts and price increases. In the short term, although the market pays attention to the support level increase brought by energy costs, the high - level hedging pressure is obvious. It is expected that the market will maintain an oscillating pattern in the range of 8100 - 8900 [2]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: LC2605 closed at 157,200 yuan per ton (- 14,420), with a closing price decrease of 8.40% [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday, a large amount of funds flowed out, and the market was under pressure to fall. The expectation of the continuation of the US - Iran war weakened, and the concern about the shortage of diesel supply in Australia affecting lithium ore mining is expected to ease. The export ban in Zimbabwe has no progress, and its supply disturbance will gradually be reflected in mid - to late April. However, the expectation of the strengthening of the preference for new - energy vehicles and energy - storage consumption due to oil price fluctuations remains unchanged, and the trend of the weekly demand recovery at the power end is clear. The spot price of SMM Australian spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is $2360 per ton, an increase of $25 per ton compared to the previous day, and the SMM electric carbon price is 163,000 (- 1500) yuan per ton. On the supply side, the weekly output is 24,814 tons, a month - on - month increase of 628 tons, due to the recovery of the spodumene production line. SMM expects the lithium carbonate production in March to be 106,390 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.7% compared to January. On the demand side, the production schedule of lithium iron phosphate in March is 430,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.3% compared to January; the production schedule of ternary materials in March is 84,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.1% compared to January. In terms of inventory, the short - term weekly inventory shows a slight accumulation. The export ban of lithium ore in Zimbabwe has no progress, and it is expected that the supply gap of at least one month will be gradually reflected in mid - to late April. It is necessary to continuously pay attention to the policy progress in Zimbabwe. The sample inventory is 99,489 tons, an increase of 616 tons in inventory, among which the smelting link has an inventory increase of 724 tons, the downstream link has an inventory increase of 552 tons, and the trader link has an inventory decrease of 660 tons. The total inventory days are 27.9 (+ 0.2) days. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 11,318 (- 19,746) lots. Pay attention to the growth rate slope of new warehouse receipts after centralized cancellation. The funds precipitated in the market are 30.1 (- 3.78) billion yuan [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: With supply disturbances and a clear trend of demand recovery, it is expected to oscillate widely. Buy on dips at the lower edge of the range and be cautious about chasing high [2]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 35,200 yuan per ton, a decrease of 1350 yuan per ton compared to the previous trading day, with a closing price decrease of 3.69%, the position decreased by 128 lots to 34,456 lots (- 0.37%), and the trading volume decreased by 5768 lots to 10,763 lots (- 34.89%). The variety's precipitated funds decreased by 16 million to 1.758 billion, and the warehouse receipt volume today was 11,030 lots (+ 10) [2]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the weekly polysilicon output is flat compared to the previous period, and the month - on - month increase in industry inventory has significantly narrowed. The production schedule in April is basically flat compared to the previous month. On the demand side, the prices of downstream photovoltaic - related products still continue to decline, but the decline rate is gradually slowing down. The expected production schedule of components in April is reduced by 7.26GW month - on - month. From January to February 2026, the newly - installed domestic photovoltaic capacity decreased by 17.71% year - on - year, with an average monthly installed capacity of 16GW, showing a stable performance. The export data of battery cells and components in February decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year trends were divergent. The component exports to Europe increased slightly year - on - year [2][3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The spot price of polysilicon has been continuously declining this week, and the market sentiment is weak. The current market still needs to fully digest the negative factors such as the weakening of the spot market. Coupled with the relatively high volatility of the variety, it is recommended to focus on tracking the actual downstream procurement situation and the transaction order price in the short term, and mainly wait and see in operation [3]. Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin prices oscillated strongly [3]. - **Fundamentals**: There is news that the Iranian president wants to end the war under security guarantees, but the authenticity of the news is to be verified. The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the spot is still traded at a high premium. The domestic warehouse receipts are decreasing rapidly every day, and the London structure is 375 dollars contango [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Suggest waiting and seeing [3]. Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 rebar contract closed at 3124 yuan per ton, a decrease of 20 yuan per ton compared to the previous day's night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The building material inventory in the Gangyin caliber decreased by 0.3% to 6.63 million tons month - on - month, and was basically flat last week. The rebar out - bound volume in Hangzhou on the weekend was 68,000 tons, compared with 76,000 tons last week; the inventory was 1.548 million tons, compared with 1.522 million tons last week and 1.127 million tons in the same period last year. The building material demand has marginally improved but is still slightly weaker year - on - year. Fortunately, the supply has decreased year - on - year, and the contradiction is limited. The plate demand has marginally stabilized, and the direct and indirect exports remain at a relatively high level. The inventory depletion speed is at a neutral level in the same period of history. The steel mill profit is poor, and the production increase space is limited. The steel spot price is a bit weak in following the rise, and the futures discount has narrowed [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Mainly wait and see. Hold the short position of rebar 2605 cautiously or choose the opportunity to exit. The reference range for RB05 is 3100 - 3160 [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 iron ore contract closed at 815 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.5 yuan per ton compared to the previous day's night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The iron ore arrival volume increased by 1.237 million tons to 22.802 million tons month - on - month, and the shipment volume decreased by 6.72 million tons to 24.724 million tons month - on - month. The iron ore supply - demand margin remains stable. The molten iron output in the Steel Union caliber increased by 30,000 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 3% year - on - year. The coking plant proposed a price increase, but it has not been implemented yet. The steel mill profit is poor, and the subsequent blast furnace production increase slope is limited. The supply side conforms to the seasonal law. The furnace charge inventory of steel mills is slightly high, and the inventory days remain above the historical average level. Although the total port inventory has increased by about 24 million tons to 170 million tons year - on - year, the proportion of mainstream iron ore inventory in ports is low, and there is a certain structural contradiction. The iron ore maintains a forward - discount structure but is significantly lower year - on - year, and the valuation is slightly high [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Mainly wait and see. The reference range for I05 is 800 - 830 [4]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 coking coal contract closed at 1147.5 yuan per ton, a decrease of 43.5 yuan per ton compared to the previous day's night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The molten iron output in the Steel Union caliber increased by 30,000 tons to 22.82 million tons month - on - month, a decrease of 3% year - on - year. The coke proposed a price increase, but it has not been implemented yet. The steel mill profit is poor, and the subsequent blast furnace production increase slope may be gentle. The port customs clearance at the supply end maintains a high level, and the inventory in each link is differentiated. The port and mine - mouth inventories are high, while the inventories in other links are low, and the overall inventory level is neutral. The 05 contract futures have a premium over the spot, and the forward - premium structure is maintained, with the futures valuation being high [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Mainly wait and see. Hold the short position of coking coal 2605 cautiously. The reference range for JM05 is 1120 - 1170 [4]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: The overnight CBOT soybeans rose because the US soybean planting area intention was slightly lower than the market expectation [6]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, it is loose in the near - term, and there is an expectation of increased production capacity for new US soybean crops in the far - term. On the demand side, the US soybean crushing is strong, and the exports conform to the seasonality. In general, the expectation of global supply - demand looseness remains unchanged [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: US soybeans are expected to oscillate, and the looseness suppresses the price. Pay attention to the production in the producing areas and crude oil; in China, it also follows the cost side. Pay attention to the macro - crude oil and the arrival volume [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: The corn futures price declined, and the corn spot price decreased in the Northeast and slightly increased in the North China [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Currently, the grain - selling progress exceeds 80%, but the progress is slow. The mentality in the producing areas, especially in North China, has loosened, and the enthusiasm for selling grain has increased. The policy wheat auction volume has increased, and both the transaction rate and the premium have declined. Coupled with the good growth of new - season wheat seedlings, the wheat price has weakened. After the spot price rose to a high level, the expectation of policy regulation has increased, and the spot price is expected to adjust weakly. Pay attention to the auction situation of the minimum - purchase - price wheat and the changes in the purchase - and - sale rhythm [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Since the transaction rate and premium of the wheat auction have both declined, the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. White Sugar - **Market Performance**: The Zhengzhou sugar 0

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View On March 31, 2026, the A - share market and various futures markets showed different trends. The A - share market had a collective callback, and futures markets such as coke, coal, and others had their own price movements influenced by factors like supply - demand relationships, international policies, and market sentiment [1]. 3. Summary by Category A. Stock Index Futures - On March 31, A - share market indices fell. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.80% to 3891.86 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.81% to 13478.06 points, and the ChiNext Index declined 2.70% to 3184.95 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2006.1 billion yuan, an increase of 78.3 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index was weak on March 31, closing at 4450.05, a decrease of 41.90 from the previous day [2]. B. Coke and Coking Coal - On March 31, the coke weighted index trended weakly, closing at 1737.4, a decrease of 54.0 from the previous day. The coking coal weighted index also trended weakly, closing at 1203.2 yuan, a decrease of 72.7 from the previous day [2][3]. - Coking profit is average, daily production slightly increases, coke inventory slightly rises, and traders' purchasing willingness improves slightly. The supply of carbon elements is sufficient, downstream molten iron slightly increases, and steel profit slightly improves. The coking coal futures price has a large premium over Mongolian coal, and Mongolian coal customs clearance data remains high. Mongolian coal customs clearance volume is 1230 vehicles. Coal mine production has returned to a high - level, weekly production slightly decreases, spot auction transactions are good this week, transaction prices mainly rise, terminal inventory significantly increases, and there is some restocking action. The total coking coal inventory slightly increases, and production - end inventory slightly decreases [4]. C. Zhengzhou Sugar - Due to the failure of the futures price to break through and stabilize at the 16 - cent technical level, it was pressured by technical selling, and the US sugar oscillated and declined on Monday. Affected by the decline of US sugar and the reduction of spot quotes, the short - sellers pressured the Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract to oscillate and decline on Tuesday. Due to the large short - term decline, affected by the technical aspect, the Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract oscillated and adjusted slightly higher at night. In the 2026/27 season starting in April, Brazil's sugar export volume may decrease by 14.2% as sugar mills tend to use more sugarcane to produce ethanol due to high energy prices. Brazil's sugar production in the 2026/27 season will drop from 43.5 million tons in the previous season to 40.3 million tons [4]. D. Rubber - Affected by the decline of synthetic rubber, Shanghai rubber oscillated and declined on Tuesday. At night, supported by bargain - hunting buying, Shanghai rubber oscillated and rose. In the first two months of 2026, Thailand's exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) totaled 450,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15%. From January to February, Thailand's exports of mixed rubber were 297,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. In total, Thailand's exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first two months were 747,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.4% [4]. E. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on March 31, the CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1172.25 cents per bushel, a gain of 1.17%. The US Department of Agriculture's planting intention report shows that the US soybean planting area in 2026 is expected to be 84.7 million acres, higher than last year's 81.215 million acres but lower than analysts' forecast of 85.549 million acres. Brazil's soybean exports in March are estimated to be 15.86 million tons, slightly lower than the previous forecast, and the short - term export rhythm is stable. Domestically, on March 31, the soybean meal main M2605 contract closed at 2915 yuan per ton, a decline of 0.75%. China has relaxed the weed quarantine standards for Brazilian soybeans, and the customs clearance speed has accelerated. Brazilian soybeans will arrive in large quantities from April to May, and the domestic soybean supply will become more abundant, and the soybean meal inventory is expected to stop falling and rise. It is recommended to focus on the weather in South American main production areas, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the rhythm of soybean arrivals, and customs clearance efficiency [6]. F. Live Pigs - On March 31, the live pig main contract LH2605 closed at 9770 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.35%. The inventory of breeding sows remains at a high level, higher than the reasonable regulation target. Coupled with the improvement of production efficiency, the supply of suitable - weight standard pigs continues to increase, and the slaughter volume remains high. The capacity reduction is insufficient, and the supply side remains loose. The demand side has insufficient carrying capacity and cannot effectively support the live pig price. Although some slaughtering enterprises carry out frozen product segmentation and warehousing operations, and there is a small amount of secondary fattening, such demand is limited, and it is difficult to reverse the current market pattern of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to focus on the progress of breeding sow reduction, the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises, and the recovery of terminal consumption [6]. G. Palm Oil - On March 31, affected by Indonesia's B50 biodiesel plan, the palm oil futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange once broke through the 10,000 - yuan mark. However, the subsequent upward momentum was insufficient, and the market oscillated and declined with a reduction in positions. By the afternoon close, the palm oil main contract P2605 K - line closed as a negative line with long upper and lower shadows. The highest price on the day was 10082, the lowest price was 9808, and the closing price was 9866, a decrease of 0.64% from the previous trading day. According to the independent inspection agency AmSpec in Malaysia, Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 31 were 1,607,065 tons, a 56.7% increase from the 1,025,449 tons exported in the same period last month [6]. H. Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai copper main 2605 contract oscillated in a narrow range, closing at 95340 yuan per ton. The opening price was 96100 yuan per ton, the highest was 96240 yuan per ton, the lowest was 95150 yuan per ton, the trading volume was 96,900 lots, and the positions slightly declined. In the spot market, the average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 copper was 95350 yuan per ton, a decrease of 30 yuan from the previous day, with a premium of 120 - 160 yuan per ton. The price differences in East China, South China, and Central China were all within 50 yuan, and the market transactions were stable. Fundamentally, on the supply side, smelting has production cuts, and the scrap copper policy is liberalized; on the demand side, the "Golden March" peak season is gradually realized, and the power grid, new energy, and other fields support the demand. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is decreasing at a low level, and the global inventory is still tight. It is necessary to pay attention to the evolution of the geopolitical situation and the progress of domestic inventory reduction [6]. I. Cotton - On Tuesday night, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 15510 yuan per ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 15 lots compared with the previous trading day, and downstream textile enterprises purchased as needed and were cautious about price adjustments. The US Department of Agriculture will release the 2026 US cotton planting intention forecast on Tuesday. The current industry average forecast is 9.229 million acres, with a forecast range of 9 - 9.635 million acres. Last year's actual planting area was 9.283 million acres, the US Agricultural Outlook Forum predicted 9.4 million acres, and the US NCC predicted 8.99 million acres [6][7]. J. Iron Ore - On March 31, the iron ore 2605 main contract oscillated and closed down, with a decline of 0.8% and a closing price of 808 yuan. The iron ore shipments in this period declined, the arrival volume continued to increase month - on - month, the port inventory decreased, steel mills maintained the resumption trend, and the molten iron output continued to rise. The short - term iron ore price is in an oscillating trend [8]. K. Asphalt - On March 31, the asphalt 2606 main contract oscillated and declined, with a decline of 1.53% and a closing price of 4512 yuan. The refinery operating rate is at a low level, the supply is tight, the terminal demand starts slowly, the refinery shipments continue to decline month - on - month, and it is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The short - term asphalt price may follow the oil price [8]. L. Logs - The log 2605 main contract opened at 826 on Tuesday, with a minimum of 820, a maximum of 829, and a closing price of 820.5, with a daily reduction of 360 lots. On March 31, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 790 yuan per cubic meter, an increase of 10 yuan per cubic meter from the previous day. The spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan per cubic meter, the same as the previous day. As of March 27, the domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.89 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.69%, hitting a one - month low. It is necessary to pay attention to the spot price, import data, shipping costs, inventory changes, and the support of the macro - expected market sentiment on the price [8][9]. M. Steel - On March 31, rb2605 closed at 3121 yuan per ton, and hc2605 closed at 3294 yuan per ton. In March, as enterprises accelerated the resumption of work and production after the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of the manufacturing industry both rebounded and entered the expansion range. Although the business activity index of the construction industry rose to 49.3% in March, it was still in the contraction range. The number of newly started projects this year decreased year - on - year, and the industry demand recovered slowly. From the perspective of the steel market fundamentals, the supply and demand have gradually recovered since March, but it still faces high inventory pressure. Merchants mainly continue to reduce inventory, and the short - term steel price may oscillate [9]. N. Alumina - On March 31, ao2605 closed at 2827 yuan per ton. Affected by the uncertainty of Guinea's ore policy and the increase in shipping costs due to the Middle East situation, the price of imported ore still has room to rise. Coupled with the increase in caustic soda prices due to geopolitical conflicts, the cost support of alumina continues to move up. In addition, some domestic production cuts and new production capacities have not yet been fully released, and the short - term supply pressure is not large. However, since there are many new production capacities to be put into operation at home and abroad in the medium and long term, the upward pressure on alumina is still large [9]. O. Shanghai Aluminum - On March 31, al2605 closed at 24875 yuan per ton. The downstream demand is picking up, and the inflection point of social inventory is approaching. In addition, the potential risk of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will gradually be transmitted to the electrolytic aluminum production in the Middle East. Coupled with the concerns about aluminum plant production cuts caused by the soaring natural gas prices in Europe, the global supply stability is facing challenges. It is worth noting that the extent of the production capacity damage of Bahrain Aluminum and UAE Aluminum due to the weekend incident remains to be evaluated, while Qatar Aluminum has clearly terminated the production capacity reduction plan, injecting a certain degree of stability into the market. Overall, there is still support at the bottom of electrolytic aluminum [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of the pig industry is abundant, the market sentiment is low, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening entry is weak. Although the demand has a short - term boost before the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, it is still in the off - season, which restricts the subsequent slaughter recovery space. The price of live pigs is expected to show a weak and volatile trend. The current main 2605 contract has reduced positions and fallen, and the far - month 2607 contract has fallen more than 3%, continuing the downward trend. Attention should be paid to the impact of state reserves, secondary fattening, and capital fluctuations on the market [3] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Disk - The closing price of the main futures contract for live pigs is 9770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 235 yuan; the main contract position is 187160 lots, a decrease of 2159 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 0 lots, a decrease of 441 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions is - 63762 lots, an increase of 2362 lots [3] 2. Spot Price - The spot price of live pigs in Henan Zhumadian is 9500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; in Jilin Siping is 9300 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; in Guangdong Yunfu is 10200 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan. The main basis of live pigs is - 270 yuan/ton, an increase of 135 yuan [3] 3. Upstream Situation - The national live pig inventory is 429670,000 heads, a decrease of 7130,000 heads; the national breeding sow inventory is 39610,000 heads, a decrease of 290,000 heads [3] 4. Industry Situation - The year - on - year CPI is 1.3%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points; the average spot price of soybean meal is 3288.86 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.43 yuan; the average spot price of corn is 2448.8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.06 yuan; the DCE pig feed cost index is 943.48, a decrease of 0.23; the monthly output of feed is 28730,000 tons, a decrease of 340,000 tons; the price of binary breeding sows is 1424 yuan/head, unchanged; the breeding profit of purchased piglets is - 189.87 yuan/head, a decrease of 48.39 yuan; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised live pigs is - 344.24 yuan/head, a decrease of 46.56 yuan; the monthly import volume of pork is 50000 tons, a decrease of 20000 tons; the average price of white - striped chickens in the main producing areas is 13.7 yuan/kg, unchanged [3] 5. Downstream Situation - The cumulative catering revenue in February is 102.64 billion yuan, an increase of 45.26 billion yuan; the slaughter volume of national designated live pig slaughtering enterprises is 31.77 million heads, a decrease of 12.27 million heads [3] 6. Industry News - On March 31, the daily slaughter volume of key provincial sample slaughtering enterprises was 140514 heads, a month - on - month increase of 1.71%. The overall breeding side actively sold, and the supply was abundant. The market sentiment was low, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening entry was weak. The slaughtering enterprise's operating rate continued to recover, and the frozen product storage capacity increased significantly [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Interval trading [2] - Pig: Short - term short [2] - Egg: Interval trading [5] 2. Core Views - For corn, in the short - to - medium term, rising temperatures and increased wheat supply may pressure spot prices to correct. In the long term, the pricing logic of substitution and planting cost remains, with a focus on policy guidance [2]. - For pigs, in the short term, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand persists in March, and pig prices may remain low. In the medium term, supply pressure will ease from April - June. In the long term, supply pressure exists until August, and the expected high of far - month contracts has shifted down [5]. - For eggs, in the short term, egg prices stop rising and fall after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival. In the medium term, supply pressure is postponed, limiting the upside of egg prices in the third quarter. In the long term, the continuous expansion of egg - laying hen farming may extend the price bottom cycle [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Corn Market Review - Overnight, the corn futures fluctuated weakly. As of the night - session close, the main 2605 contract fell 0.47% to 2,346 yuan/ton [2]. Important Information - Deep - processing enterprise purchase prices in the Northeast and North China decreased slightly. The average purchase price in the Northeast was 2,251 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from last Friday, and in North China, it was 2,429 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton [2]. - Prices at north - south ports decreased slightly. The purchase price at Jinzhou Port was 2,330 - 2,350 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and at Shekou Port, the transaction price was 2,490 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [2]. - As of March 27, the total corn inventory at four northern ports was about 2.54 million tons, and the inventory at Guangdong Port was 550,000 tons. Feed enterprises mainly consumed inventory due to increased arrivals of imported grains [2]. - On March 30, the number of corn futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1,000 lots to 58,377 lots [2]. - On March 30, the wheat - corn price difference in Shandong was 140 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day [2]. - The National Grain Trading Center will auction 800,000 tons of minimum - purchase - price wheat on April 1, the same amount as the previous week [2]. Market Logic - Short - to - medium term: Rising temperatures and increased wheat supply may pressure spot prices to correct. Long - term: The pricing logic of substitution and planting cost remains, with a focus on policy guidance [2]. Trading Strategy - Maintain a wide - range trading idea in the medium term and expect a short - term correction. The 2605 contract has a valid resistance at 2,400. After breaking the first support at 2,350 - 2,370 on Monday, pay attention to the second support at 2,310 - 2,330. Consider appropriate profit - taking for previous short positions near the second support [2]. Pig Market Review - The pig futures fluctuated downward yesterday. The main 2605 contract rose 0.65% to 10,005 yuan/ton [2]. Important Information - Pig prices were mainly stable. On March 30, the national average pig price was 9.41 yuan/kg, and it is expected to remain stable on the morning of March 31 [2]. - As of the end of December, the number of fertile sows was 39.61 million, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%, 101.6% of the normal level [2]. - From January to September 2025, the number of new - born piglets increased month - on - month (only decreased in July), corresponding to an increasing trend in pig slaughter until March this year. From October to December 2025, the number of new - born piglets decreased for three consecutive months, by 1%, 0.8%, and 1.2% respectively, corresponding to a relief in supply pressure from April. In January 2026, the number of new - born piglets increased 1% month - on - month [2]. - As of March 26, the average slaughter weight of pigs was 126.43 kg, an increase of 0.53 kg from the previous week [2]. - On March 30, the price difference between fat and standard pigs was 0.28 yuan/jin, narrowing by 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day [5]. - As of March 30, the number of pig futures warehouse receipts decreased by 42 lots to 441 lots [5]. - On March 30, the daily market price of 7 - kg piglets was 234.72 yuan/head, the same as last Friday [5]. - As of March 26, the pork frozen - product storage rate was 21.24%, an increase of 0.26% from the previous week [5]. Market Logic - Short - term: The pattern of strong supply and weak demand persists in March, with weight pressure remaining. Under policy guidance, the expectation of weight reduction by farmers is increasing, and pig prices may remain low. Pay attention to the sentiment of second - fattening and frozen - product storage [5]. - Medium - term: The continuous month - on - month decline in new - born piglets in the fourth quarter of 2025 means supply pressure will ease from April - June. Pay attention to the impact of diseases [5]. - Long - term: Supply pressure exists until August. However, the decline in the number of fertile sows at the end of 2025 was less than expected, and the expected high of far - month contracts has shifted down [5]. Trading Strategy - Maintain a bottom - range trading idea. Near - month contracts continue to test support levels. As piglet prices continue to fall, the expectation of far - month contracts continues to shift down. For the 2605 contract, support is at 9,500 - 9,800, and resistance is at 10,000 - 10,300; for the 2607 contract, support is at 10,800 - 11,000, and if the support is effectively broken, the downside space may open, with resistance at 11,500 - 11,600; for the 2609 contract, support is at 12,000 - 12,200, and if the support is effectively broken, the downside space may open, with resistance at 12,700 - 12,900; for the 2611 contract, resistance is at 13,000 - 13,100, support is at 12,500, and if the support is effectively broken, the downside space may open; for the 2701 contract, resistance is at 13,500 - 13,650, and support is at 12,800 - 13,000 [5]. Egg Market Review - Yesterday, the egg futures showed a pattern of near - term weakness and far - term strength. The main 2605 contract fell 1.54% to 3,453 yuan/500KG [5]. Important Information - Egg prices mainly weakened. The average price in the main production areas was 3.39 yuan/jin, down 0.04 yuan/jin from the previous day, and in the main sales areas, it was 3.52 yuan/jin. On March 30, the price of pink eggs in Guantao, Hebei was 3.04 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous day [5]. - On March 30, the average inventory in the production link was 1.09 days, an increase of 0.07 days from last Friday, and in the circulation link, it was 1.21 days, an increase of 0.07 days [5]. - On March 30, the average price of old hens was 5.12 yuan/jin, the same as before. As of March 26, the weekly culling age of old hens was 505 days, the same as the previous week [5]. - According to Zhuochuang Information, the number of laying hens in February was about 1.35 billion, a month - on - month increase of 0.6% and a year - on - year increase of 3.37%. The theoretical estimated number of laying hens in March is 1.342 billion [5]. Market Logic - Short - term: After the Tomb - Sweeping Festival inventory replenishment, inventory begins to rise, and egg prices stop rising and fall [5]. - Medium - term: The continuous increase in culling age and month - on - month increase in chick replenishment postpone egg supply pressure, which may limit the upside of egg prices in the third quarter [5]. - Long - term: The continuous expansion of egg - laying hen farming may extend the price bottom cycle and limit the upside driven by culling [5]. Trading Strategy - It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading. For the 2605 contract, resistance is at 3,500 - 3,530, support is at 3,350 - 3,400. Pay attention to the culling rhythm and inventory level [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Oilseeds**: The release of the US biodiesel policy and the firmness of Brazilian premiums support the cost of soybean imports in China. However, the increase in reserve releases has cooled the bullish sentiment for soybeans. For example, the 05 contract of soybeans is expected to be weak in the short - term, while the 09 contract of soybeans and soybean meal can be considered for long - position layout [3][5][12]. - **Oils**: The continuous tension in the Middle East situation, the implementation of the US biodiesel policy, and the restart of Indonesia's B50 policy have driven up the prices of oils. Palm oil can be treated with a cautious bullish attitude, and soybean oil and rapeseed oil may continue to fluctuate widely [3][4]. - **Feed**: The supply of feed grains such as corn and corn starch is under pressure in the short - term, but the low channel inventory limits the decline space. The price of rapeseed meal may continue to fluctuate and bottom out, waiting for a stable upward opportunity [6][7]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The short - term supply - demand pattern of pigs is difficult to change fundamentally, and the far - month futures contracts of pigs may have a larger premium. The supply pressure of eggs has been alleviated to some extent, and the far - month peak - season contracts have a large premium over the current off - season spot [8][9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Analysis - **Oilseeds**: The 05 contract of soybeans is expected to be weak due to increased reserve releases. The 09 contract of soybeans and soybean meal can be considered for long - position layout due to cost - end support [12]. - **Oils**: Palm oil is expected to be bullish, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil may fluctuate widely. The 05 contract of palm oil can be treated with a cautious bullish attitude, and the 09 contract of soybean oil can be considered for long - position after stabilization [12]. - **Protein**: The 09 contract of soybean meal is expected to be stable, and the 05 contract of rapeseed meal may continue to fluctuate and adjust [12]. - **Energy and By - products**: Corn and corn starch may adjust in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see or look for long - position opportunities at low prices [12]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The 05 contract of pigs and eggs may continue to search for the bottom, and it is recommended to wait and see [12]. 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - **Inter - month Arbitrage**: For most varieties, it is recommended to wait and see. For the 5 - 9 spread of corn, it is recommended to short at high prices, and for the 5 - 7 spread of pigs, it is recommended to hold the reverse arbitrage [13][14]. - **Inter - commodity Arbitrage**: For most inter - commodity spreads, it is recommended to wait and see. For the 05 soybean oil - palm oil, 05 rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and 05 rapeseed oil - palm oil spreads, it is recommended to wait and see. For the 05 soybean oil - meal ratio and 05 rapeseed oil - meal ratio, it is recommended to take a bullish approach [14]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties, which can be used as a reference for spot - futures operations [15]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: It includes the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping periods, which helps to understand the cost - end situation of oils and oilseeds [17][18]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the inventory and operating rates of various oils and oilseeds, such as the inventory of soybeans, soybean meal, rapeseed, rapeseed meal, palm oil, peanuts, and peanut oil, as well as the operating rates of related processing plants [19][20]. 3.2.2 Feed - **Daily Data**: It provides the import cost data of corn from different countries and months, which is helpful for analyzing the cost of feed grains [20]. - **Weekly Data**: It includes the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and sales progress of corn and corn starch, which can reflect the supply - demand situation of the feed market [21]. 3.2.3 Livestock and Poultry - **Daily Data**: It shows the spot prices and price changes of pigs and eggs in different regions, which can reflect the short - term market situation [21][22]. - **Weekly Data**: It provides the key data of pigs and eggs, such as the price, cost, profit, slaughter volume, and inventory of pigs, as well as the supply, demand, and profit data of eggs [23][24]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts The report provides a series of charts to track the fundamentals of the livestock and poultry, oils and oilseeds, and feed sectors, including the price, inventory, production, and consumption data of various varieties, which helps to visually understand the market situation [25][26][28]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils The report provides the option - related data of feed, livestock, and oils, such as the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal, historical volatility, option trading volume, and open interest, which can be used as a reference for option trading [96][98][100]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils The report provides the warehouse receipt data of various varieties, including rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, pigs, and eggs, which can reflect the supply - demand situation in the physical market [106][108][110].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026 Q1, the domestic live pig market showed a trend of "rising first and then falling, and continuously hitting bottom". The futures price rebounded before the Spring Festival due to the boost of curing and holiday demand, but fell after the Spring Festival due to weak consumption demand and weakened secondary fattening sentiment [1][2] - Looking forward to Q2 2026, the oversupply pressure in the live pig market is still being released. The pig price is likely to continue to bottom out in the low - level range in the short term, and there may be a phased trend market in the second half of the year. Attention should be paid to the breeding strategies of farmers in the off - season [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 2: Market Review - In 2026 Q1, the domestic live pig futures and spot markets showed a trend of "rising first and then falling, and continuously hitting bottom", and the industry fell into deep losses [2] - From the beginning of the year to before the Spring Festival: The peak season was not prosperous, and the destocking of breeding sows was less than expected. The spot price briefly soared to about 13.18 yuan/kg in January, but the futures market declined due to the less - than - expected destocking of breeding sows [2] - After the Spring Festival: The demand was dismal, and the industry fell into deep losses. The supply was abundant, and the demand entered the traditional off - season. The narrowing of the white - hair price difference and the slow sales of white - striped pork further suppressed the pig price [3] Chapter 3: Key Points of Concern 3.1 Supply - side Concerns - **Breeding sows**: The current live pig slaughter is mainly determined by the breeding sow inventory in April - May 2025, which was still at a high level. The destocking of breeding sows has been slow, but may accelerate due to serious losses in pig breeding. The proportion of binary and ternary breeding sows has remained relatively stable, and the overall breeding capacity has been increasing [6] - **Production efficiency**: The current PSY and MSY of live pig production are at historical highs, which has significantly enhanced the actual supply capacity of commercial pigs. The release of "invisible production capacity" has led to continuous pressure on pig prices and deepened industry losses [8] - **Live pig slaughter volume**: From the beginning of the year to around the Spring Festival, the domestic live pig slaughter showed the characteristics of "high - level operation of total volume, slow - then - fast slaughter rhythm, and high proportion of large pigs". The slaughter pressure increased rapidly after the Spring Festival. In March, the planned slaughter volume of group pig enterprises increased significantly compared with that in February [10] - **Average slaughter weight of live pigs**: The average slaughter weight of live pigs in early January was relatively low, and did not decrease significantly before the Spring Festival as in previous years. After the Spring Festival, the problem of large pigs was prominent, and the average slaughter weight continued to rise, reaching a high level in the same period in the past five years [12] 3.2 Demand - side Concerns - **Slaughter enterprises**: The overall slaughter volume of live pigs in 2026 was relatively high. In January, the slaughter volume increased by 15.4% compared with the same period last year, but the data of sample enterprises showed different trends [17] - **Terminal fresh sales situation**: The fresh sales rate in the terminal live pig market has dropped significantly due to increased slaughter volume and slow sales of white - striped pork. The demand is in the traditional off - season, and the fresh sales market will continue to fluctuate at a low level under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand [19] Chapter 4: Cost Valuation and Supply - Demand Outlook 4.1 Breeding Profit - The live pig breeding industry is in a state of deep losses, with self - breeding and self - raising suffering more severe losses. The loss per pig in self - breeding and self - raising has expanded to - 344.24 yuan, and the loss in purchasing piglets for fattening is in the range of - 141.48 yuan to - 199.25 yuan [21] - The secondary fattening behavior in the live pig market has shown a "rational slowdown" feature, with low utilization rate of fattening pens and narrowing or inverted spread between standard and fat pigs [23][24] 4.2 Feed Cost - The feed cost of live pig breeding is rising due to the increasing prices of corn and soybean meal, which has further exacerbated the industry's losses [26] 4.3 Summary and Supply - Demand Outlook - In Q1, the pig price showed a unilateral accelerating downward trend, and the industry has fallen into deep cash - flow losses. Although the destocking of breeding sows is currently less than expected, it may accelerate in the future [28] - In the short term, the oversupply pressure in the live pig market will still be released, and the pig price is likely to continue to bottom out at a low level. In the supply side, as the industry enters a deep - loss stage, the sow production capacity will shrink, and the marginal supply pressure may decrease [29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Pig**: The supply pressure remains high, and the futures price faces resistance in rebounding. In the short - term, the pig price will continue to fluctuate at the bottom. In the medium - to - long - term, the pig price will face resistance in the first half of the year, and there may be a low - level recovery in the second half, but the price increase depends on the extent of capacity reduction [4][51]. - **Egg**: The demand for stocking is slowing down, and the futures price faces resistance in rebounding. In the short - term, the spot price is strong, but the increase is limited. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply pressure is difficult to relieve quickly, and the market should not be overly optimistic [5][80]. - **Corn**: The grain supply is gradually becoming more abundant, and the futures price is under pressure at high levels. In the short - term, the price is under pressure to fluctuate at high levels. In the medium - to - long - term, the price increase is limited, and there is a risk of a phased correction [6][112]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Pig 3.1.1 Period and Spot Ends - As of March 27, the national spot price was 9.38 yuan/kg, down 0.49 yuan/kg from last week; the Henan pig price was 9.48 yuan/kg, down 0.52 yuan/kg from last week; the main pig futures contract 2605 closed at 9965 yuan/ton, down 255 yuan/ton from last week; the basis of the 05 contract was - 485 yuan/ton, down 265 yuan/ton from last week. The national pig price continued to decline this week, and the futures price followed the spot price down, with a late - week rebound under the influence of position limits. The spot price stopped falling and rebounded over the weekend [4][51]. 3.1.2 Supply End - In December 2025, the number of fertile sows was 39.61 million, still 3.11 million away from the normal reserve target of 36.5 million. With the increase in fattening losses and the decline in piglet profits, and the policy requirements, the industry capacity reduction will accelerate. The supply pressure in the first half of 2026 is still high, and the supply will decrease marginally after July. The proportion of large - pig sales increased, and the average weight of pig sales increased slightly and was at a high level in the same period. The planned sales volume of key provincial enterprises in March increased month - on - month, and the sales pressure in April is still high [4][51]. 3.1.3 Demand End - The weekly slaughter rate and slaughter volume continued to rise. The low price increased the slaughter volume, but the terminal fresh - sales demand was weak, the fresh - sales rate of slaughterhouses decreased, and the frozen - product storage ratio increased. Consumption is in the off - season, and attention should be paid to the Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking and the frozen - product storage of slaughterhouses [4][51]. 3.1.4 Cost End - The prices of piglets and binary fertile sows fell significantly, the losses of self - breeding and self - fattening and purchasing piglets for fattening increased, and the cost of self - breeding and self - fattening 5 - month - old fattening pigs increased. The national pig - grain ratio fell below 5:1, and policy measures such as state reserve purchases may be taken, but the current supply is still relatively loose [4][51]. 3.1.5 Weekly Summary - Although the short - term supply reduction by farmers provides some support, the sales pressure in April is still high, and the pig price is under pressure. In the medium - to - long - term, the pig price will face resistance in the first half of the year and may recover in the second half, but the price increase depends on the capacity reduction [4][51]. 3.1.6 Strategy Suggestion - For the 05 and 07 contracts, short at high levels; for the 09, 11, and 01 contracts, be cautious about bottom - fishing, and breeding enterprises can hedge at profitable levels [4][51]. 3.2 Egg 3.2.1 Period and Spot Ends - As of March 27, the average price in the main egg - producing areas was 3.39 yuan/jin, up 0.12 yuan/jin from last Friday; the average price in the main egg - selling areas was 3.38 yuan/jin, up 0.14 yuan/jin from last Friday; the main egg futures contract 2605 closed at 3502 yuan/500 kg, up 93 yuan/500 kg from last Friday; the basis of the main contract was - 322 yuan/500 kg, up 17 yuan/500 kg from last Friday. The national egg price continued to rise slightly, and the futures price rebounded [5][80]. 3.2.2 Supply End - The number of laying hens in production is still at a high level in the same period. The number of newly - opened laying hens is stable. The number of old - hen sales increased significantly this week, but the proportion of hens to be culled is low, and the capacity reduction is slow. The inventory pressure is low in the short - term, but the supply pressure is difficult to relieve quickly in the medium - to - long - term [5][80]. 3.2.3 Demand End - The egg demand continued to recover slightly this week. The sales volume in the sales areas increased slightly, and the Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking provided phased support. However, the low - price pork has a substitution effect on egg demand, and the terminal household consumption is still in the off - season [5][80]. 3.2.4 Weekly Summary - The supply pressure is difficult to relieve quickly, and the demand recovery is slow. The spot price is strong in the short - term, but the increase is limited. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand pattern is difficult to improve fundamentally [5][80]. 3.2.5 Strategy Suggestion - In the short - term, be cautious about chasing high prices, and pay attention to the pressure at 3550 - 3600 for the 05 contract. In the medium - to - long - term, wait for the clear inflection point [5][80]. 3.3 Corn 3.3.1 Period and Spot Ends - As of March 27, the平仓 price of corn at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2380 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from last Friday; the main corn futures contract 2605 closed at 2369 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton from last Friday; the basis of the main contract was 11 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton from last Friday. The national corn price was adjusted narrowly at a high level, and the futures price continued to fluctuate weakly [6][112]. 3.3.2 Supply End - The supply shortage has been further alleviated, and the supply is becoming more abundant. The grain - selling progress in Northeast and North China has continued to improve, and the grain rights have gradually transferred to traders. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises and northern ports has increased, and the supply pressure has been significantly relieved [6][112]. 3.3.3 Demand End - The replenishment rhythm of deep - processing enterprises has slowed down, and feed procurement has remained cautious. The deep - processing capacity utilization rate and consumption have increased, but the inventory is still at a low level in the same period. Feed enterprises have sufficient inventory, and the procurement intensity has slowed down, with wheat substitution [6][112]. 3.3.4 Weekly Summary - The corn market's trading rhythm has slowed down, the supply has become more abundant, and the demand has limited growth. In the short - term, the price is under pressure at high levels, and in the medium - to - long - term, there is a risk of a phased correction [6][112]. 3.3.5 Strategy Suggestion - In the short - term, operate cautiously in the range of [2340 - 2390]. In the medium - to - long - term, short on rebounds [6][112].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of pigs and pork is expected to decrease as the secondary fattening period of southern pigs in China has ended and the demand for cured meat and sausages has also finished. The overall consumption of pork remains pessimistic in the short term due to the post - Spring Festival off - season. The pig price is expected to enter a weak and volatile pattern in the short term. The market should focus on the monthly slaughter rhythm of large - scale farms and the dynamic changes at the bottom of the futures market when the spot price is weak after the release of the secondary fattening market. The expected price range of LH2605 is between 9800 and 10200 [10]. - The spot price of live pigs is in a short - term weak state, and the futures price is expected to decline in the short term, then bottom out and rebound, or maintain a volatile pattern in the medium term. Further observation of supply and demand growth is needed [12]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - The supply of live pigs is expected to decrease, and the demand is also weak. The pig price may enter a weak and volatile pattern in the short term. The expected price range of LH2605 is between 9800 and 10200 [10]. 3.2 Recent News - The domestic live pig consumption market is affected by the end of the peak demand season. The secondary fattening of southern pigs has basically ended, and the supply of live pigs is expected to decrease. The spot price is in a short - term weak state and will maintain a volatile pattern in the medium term [12]. - After the peak demand season, the live pig market enters a stage of reduced supply and weak demand. The price may have limited room for further decline in the short term, and may bottom out and return to a volatile pattern [12]. - The profit of domestic pig farming has been slightly fluctuating in the short term and remains slightly in the red. The enthusiasm for slaughtering large pigs has increased in the short term, and the short - term supply - increase and demand - weak situation suppresses the expected price of live pig futures and spot [12]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: The domestic live pig supply is in the post - Spring Festival off - season, and the domestic pig - grain ratio has fallen to a historical low range [13]. - Bearish factors: The domestic live pig demand is in the post - Spring Festival off - season, and the year - on - year decrease in domestic live pig inventory is lower than expected [13]. - The current main logic is that the market focuses on the slaughter situation of live pigs and the demand for fresh meat [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - As of December 31, the live pig inventory was 429.67 million heads, a monthly decrease of 0.8% and a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. As of the end of December, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million heads, a monthly decrease of 0.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.9% [10]. - As of March 31, the live pig inventory was 408.5 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 5.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.2%. As of the end of May 2024, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.96 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.2% [28]. 3.5 Position Data - The net position of the main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing [10].