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债市晴雨表:七大指标看债市情绪所处位置
CMS· 2026-01-25 09:02
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the current position of bond market sentiment through seven indicators, including the bond market sentiment index, institutional duration, leverage ratio, secondary trading, institutional allocation power, primary subscription, and relative valuation. It provides data on the changes in these indicators over the past week, reflecting the dynamics of the bond market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market Sentiment Index - Last week, the bond market sentiment index was 116.1, up 0.1 from the previous value; the bond market sentiment diffusion index was 50.1%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous value [2]. 3.2 Institutional Duration Tracking - As of last Friday, the fund duration was 1.39 years, up 0.03 years from the previous Friday; the duration of city and rural commercial banks was 6.71 years, down 0.07 years; the insurance duration was 7.56 years, down 0.01 years [2]. 3.3 Leverage Ratio Tracking - Last week, the balance of pledged repurchase was 12.5 trillion yuan, down 0.1 trillion yuan from the previous value; the net lending balance of large - scale banks was 5.4 trillion yuan, down 0.1 trillion yuan; the bond market leverage ratio was 103.8%, unchanged from the previous value [2]. 3.4 Secondary Trading Tracking - In terms of turnover rate last week, the turnover rate of 30Y treasury bonds was 2.4%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous value; the turnover rate of 10Y treasury bonds was 0.7%, down 0.3 percentage points; the turnover rate of 10Y CDB bonds was 23.0%, down 0.5 percentage points; the turnover rate of ultra - long - term credit bonds was 0.25%, up 0.05 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Institutional Allocation Power Tracking - The newly issued shares of bond funds last week were 5.1 billion yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the stock market risk premium was 0.53%, unchanged from the previous value; the US dollar index was 98.4, down 0.8 from the previous value. The 6M bill transfer discount rate - 6M certificate of deposit rose 1.2bp to - 46.6bp, indicating an increase in loan demand. In terms of institutional allocation power, the bond allocation index of city and rural commercial banks was - 56.4%, down 76.6 percentage points from the previous value; the insurance bond allocation index was 68.4%, down 6.2 percentage points; the money fund bond allocation index was - 32.2%, up 47.2 percentage points; the insurance's allocation index for Tier 2 and perpetual bonds was 4.9%, down 6.9 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Primary Subscription Tracking - Last week, the overall multiple of treasury bonds increased by 0.9 times to 4.4 times; the overall multiple of local bonds increased by 0.5 times to 20.0 times; the overall multiple of CDB bonds decreased by 0.1 times to 3.7 times [2]. 3.7 Relative Valuation Tracking - Last week, the spread between 10 - year CDB bonds and treasury bonds narrowed by 1.0bp to 15.9bp; the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds widened by 3.2bp to 48.0bp; the spread between old and new 10 - year CDB bonds widened by 1.3bp to - 3.9bp; the spread between 10 - year local bonds and treasury bonds narrowed by 4.3bp to 16.9bp [2].