Report Information - Report Title: Bond Research Weekly Report - A Comprehensive Overview of Bond Market Sentiment under the US-Iran Conflict [1][2] - Report Date: March 9, 2026 [1] - Analyst: Yan Ziqi [2] - Contact: Guo Xiyuan [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The bond market is currently influenced by a mix of bullish and bearish factors. After the economic theme press conference during the Two Sessions last week, the market's concerns about fiscal and monetary policies have been alleviated, but inflation remains a negative factor [4]. - The divergence in sellers' views has increased, possibly due to the continuous escalation of the US-Iran conflict, which has further complicated the market's bull-bear judgment [4]. - Most institutions believe that the inflation risk brought by the US-Iran conflict has limited impact on the bond market. Even if it drives up inflation expectations, it can be offset by the "stagflation" impact on the global economy, and it is unlikely to become the main risk for the bond market [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Seller Market Sentiment 1.1 Seller Market Interest Rate Bond Sentiment Index - From March 3 to March 9, the unweighted sentiment index was 0.21, up 0.07 from February 24 to March 2. Some institutions' market views have turned bullish. Currently, institutions generally hold a neutral-bullish view, with 7 bullish, 20 neutral, and 1 bearish [16]. - 25% of institutions hold a bullish attitude, believing that the market will be bullish with oscillations in March, and the interest rate may turn downward in the middle and late March, with a trend opportunity in the second quarter. Certificates of deposit can still decline, and reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts are still expected. The net financing of government bonds in March may be lower than last year, with a longer maturity and controllable supply-demand pressure. The low duration of funds, concentrated short positions, and the suppression of risk appetite by geopolitical conflicts, which weaken the stock-bond seesaw effect, are more favorable [5][16]. - 71% of institutions hold a neutral attitude, believing that the loose capital and the decline in certificate of deposit interest rates provide support. The expectation of monetary easing still exists, but the rhythm of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts is still uncertain. Oil prices and geopolitical disturbances drive up inflation, suppressing long-term interest rates. The 10-year bond interest rate may oscillate in the range of 1.75 - 1.85% in March [10][16]. - 4% of institutions hold a bearish attitude, believing that the Middle East conflict drives up oil prices, the inflation risk rises, and the low interest rate and the reduction in central bank bond purchases lead to a short-term correction in the bond market. However, the market is still in a large-range oscillation. Although the fundamentals have marginally improved, the PMI at the beginning of the year was weak, and deflation has eased [10][16]. 1.2 Buyer Market Interest Rate Bond Sentiment Index - From March 3 to March 9, the unweighted sentiment index was 0.20, up 0.25 from February 24 to March 2, with a significant increase in the sentiment index. Currently, institutions generally hold a neutral-bullish view, with 10 bullish, 10 neutral, and 5 bearish [17]. - 40% of institutions hold a bullish attitude, believing that the expectation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts is rising, the capital demand in March is weak, the capital interest rate center may decline slightly, the geopolitical conflict provides hedging support, and the "waiting for a correction to buy" strategy of institutions makes it difficult for yields to rebound continuously. The interest rate will oscillate downward in a low-volatility range [11][17]. - 40% of institutions hold a neutral attitude, believing that the policy increment is limited, the expectation of easing still exists but has not been fulfilled. The short-term yield will probably "oscillate in a low-volatility and narrow range." The market will be mainly for gaming around the Two Sessions, and the spread space and direction will be observed after the Two Sessions [11][17]. - 20% of institutions hold a bearish attitude, believing that the downward space of interest rates is limited, the yield is likely to rise and difficult to fall, and the volatility may increase again. Inflation and the "stable exchange rate" constraint make reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts not inevitable. New policy financial instruments may push up the supply of policy financial bonds and widen the spread [11][18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - From February 24 to March 2, the bond market experienced a significant adjustment, causing the sentiment indices of both sellers and buyers to decline, with the buyer sentiment dropping more [4]. - The future developments of real estate and inflation need further observation. There are potential opportunities arising from expectation gaps, and the bond market may rise during the Two Sessions. It is advisable to make arrangements during market adjustments [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Seller Market Sentiment 1.1 Seller Market Interest Rate Bond Sentiment Index: Declined from February 24 to March 2 - The unweighted sentiment index from February 24 to March 2 was 0.1429, a decrease of 0.18 compared to February 10 - 24. Some institutions' views turned neutral, and the overall view is neutral - bullish. Among 30 institutions, 5 are bullish, 22 are neutral, and 1 is bearish [12]. - 18% of institutions are bullish, believing there may be trend - following opportunities in the bond market in Q2, significant allocation may occur in March, and it's advisable to allocate during adjustments. The recent significant appreciation of the RMB is favorable to the Chinese bond market, and interest rate cuts can be expected in the next two to three months [12]. - 79% of institutions are neutral, stating that the stock - bond seesaw effect will strengthen in March, market sentiment is relatively cautious, the winning probability of the bond market will increase after the Two Sessions, but further interest rate decline requires central bank rate cuts. The 10 - year Treasury bond may fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.9% [12]. - 4% of institutions are bearish, suggesting that if inflation continues to rise, the capital trend may tighten, and the emergence of broad - money expectations in the market may be a selling point for bonds [12]. 1.2 Buyer Market Interest Rate Bond Sentiment Index: Declined from February 24 to March 2 - The unweighted sentiment index from February 24 to March 2 was - 0.046, a decrease of 0.23 compared to February 10 - 24. The sentiment index dropped significantly, and the overall view is neutral - bearish. Among 22 institutions, 5 are bullish, 11 are neutral, and 6 are bearish [13]. - 23% of institutions are bullish, believing that the reduction of US Treasury bond funds in the market is beneficial to Chinese bonds. The geopolitical event between the US and Iran has reduced market risk appetite, which is favorable to the bond market. Historically, the bond market mostly declines after the Two Sessions [13]. - 50% of institutions are neutral, stating that the yields of medium - and short - term bonds will remain low and fluctuate under the expectation of loose funds, while the yields of long - term bonds will fluctuate upward and still face adjustment pressure. The profit - taking sentiment in the market has eased, and interest rates have declined, but the volatile pattern may continue [13]. - 27% of institutions are bearish, believing that the bond market sentiment weakened significantly this week, bearish sentiment intensified, the trading volume and activity of the forfaiting market in March are expected to increase significantly compared to January - February, and market interest rates also have some upward space [13].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report focuses on the sentiment changes of bond market sellers and buyers in the latest week [7]. - From January 27 to February 2, the seller sentiment index continued to decline, and the buyer sentiment index dropped from 0 to negative. Institutions are generally cautious about the future outlook [7]. Group 2: Seller Perspective - Based on the analysis of 33 seller institutions, the bond market sentiment continued to decline, and some sellers turned neutral. Currently, sellers hold a neutral - bullish attitude, with sentiment lower than the previous period (January 20 - January 26) [8]. - 6% of institutions are bullish, believing that model signals are all positive, the interest - rate downward trend is established, and the supply - demand pattern favors the bond market [8]. - 91% of institutions are neutral, stating that the weakening fundamentals and stable funding support sentiment repair, but interest - rate decline is limited by the 1.8% psychological threshold and the central bank's preferred range. The market is expected to maintain low - volatility oscillations [8]. - 3% of institutions are bearish, arguing that the market is sensitive to loose - monetary expectations, which may become a selling opportunity. The 10 - year Treasury bond is expected to stay in the 2% - 3% range, with a central value of about 2.5% [8]. Group 3: Buyer Perspective - After sorting out the views of 21 fixed - income buyer institutions, it's found that the number of bearish views increased, and neutral views remain the mainstream, with an overall neutral stance [9]. - 10% of institutions are bullish, suggesting short - term waiting at the 1.8% psychological threshold and following up after the breakthrough [9]. - 52% of institutions are neutral, believing that the bond market is mixed, maintaining a range - bound pattern, with limited short - term yield space [9]. - 38% of institutions are bearish, stating that rising funding rates and supply pressure suppress the market, and with current interest rates close to the lower limit, there is a lack of new positive factors, and short - term risks outweigh opportunities [9]. Group 4: Market Sentiment Index - From January 27 to February 2, the unweighted seller sentiment index was 0.03, a decrease of 0.04 compared to the previous period. Some institutional views turned neutral [14]. - From January 27 to February 2, the unweighted buyer sentiment index was - 0.29, a decrease of 0.29 from the previous period, dropping from 0 to negative [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report's industry investment rating is provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Mid - term, long - term interest rates may be similar to the early 2021 period, oscillating at the peak, but there are still some constraints for a smooth short - term decline. In January, the 10Y Treasury yield initially reached 1.90% and then dropped to 1.81% at the end of the month, reaching the lower limit of the 1.8% - 1.9% oscillation range. Currently, the expectation of broad - based monetary policy is relatively insufficient, making it difficult to support the yield to break downward. In February, with the large - scale supply of local bonds, the 10Y Treasury yield may return to the central position of the oscillation range. Investment strategies suggest focusing on two structural opportunities: the allocation opportunities of 5Y policy - financial bonds and 3 - 5Y general - credit bonds due to the concentrated maturity of amortized - cost - method bond funds; and the opportunities for spread compression under the background of the central bank supporting reasonable and sufficient liquidity, such as the spread between 10Y China Development Bank bonds and 10Y Treasury bonds [1][24]. Summary by Directory 2 - Month Bond Market Outlook: Similarities and Differences between 2026 and 2021 - **Fundamentals**: In 2021, the credit cycle weakened and the real - estate market peaked and declined. In 2026, the credit cycle may decline moderately, and the real - estate market may still be at the bottom - grinding stage. In 2021, factors such as the "Three Red Lines" and "Two Concentration Limits on Mortgage Loans" in the real - estate industry and repeated outbreaks of the epidemic led to a contraction in real - estate financing, causing a rapid decline in the credit and real - estate cycles. In 2026, the real - estate market is still at the bottom - grinding stage during the transformation of old and new driving forces, and the credit cycle may decline relatively moderately with the support of monetary and fiscal policies [1][8]. - **Fiscal Policy and Local Bond Supply**: After the withdrawal of extraordinary policies, the broad - based deficit ratio may decline marginally. Compared with 2021, the current local bond supply is front - loaded and has a longer term. In 2021, fiscal efforts were back - loaded and the term was shortened, while in 2026, fiscal policy continues to be "actively front - loaded" with a relatively long - term [12]. - **Monetary Policy and Capital Market**: In both 2021 and 2026, the expectation of broad - based monetary aggregate policies declined. However, in early 2026, liquidity was relatively abundant, while in early 2021, the capital market was tight. In 2021, there was no interest - rate cut throughout the year, and the policy intensity weakened significantly compared with 2020. In early 2026, there was a 25BP structural interest - rate cut and an over - amount renewal of MLF to provide liquidity support [18]. - **Equity Market and Institutional Behavior**: Against the backdrop of a booming equity market, funds flowed into the stock market. Compared with 2021 when insurance and funds had a greater demand for bonds, in 2026, factors such as the entry of insurance funds into the market and the lack of comparative advantages of pure bonds may limit the demand support for bonds [21]. January Bond Market Review Bond Market Trend Review - **First Week**: The 10Y Treasury interest rate rose 3bp to 1.88%. At the beginning of the year, affected by supply shocks and the A - share market's good start, the yield first rose and then fell, reaching a peak and then declining. Later in the week, as negative factors were initially released, market sentiment improved marginally, and the ultra - long - term bonds returned to around 2.3% [26]. - **Second Week**: The 10Y Treasury interest rate dropped 4bp to 1.84%. In the second week, under the combined effect of equity market adjustments, policy games, and capital - market fluctuations, the bond market oscillated and recovered with increased volatility. After the central bank's over - amount renewal of repurchase agreements and the implementation of structural tool interest - rate cuts, the capital - market tension gradually eased. The adjustment policy of the exchange margin ratio for margin trading triggered risk - aversion trading in the equity market, and the bond market started a smooth upward trend [29]. - **Third Week**: The 10Y Treasury interest rate dropped 1bp to 1.83%. In the third week, with the central bank's support, the capital - market pressure was relatively controllable. As the equity market's upward trend slowed down, the bond market recovered. With the cooling of the equity market and the fermentation of external risk - aversion signals, the bullish sentiment in the bond market was boosted, and ultra - long - term bonds had a strong performance. At the end of the week, the central bank's over - amount renewal of MLF and the mention of "there is still some room for reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts this year" by the governor increased the market's expectation of an MLF interest - rate cut, and the bullish force in the bond market was strong [29]. - **Fourth Week**: The 10Y Treasury interest rate dropped 2bp to 1.81%. Near the end of the month, with a quiet market news environment, the stock - bond seesaw effect was strengthened, and the short - and long - term bond varieties showed different trends. At the beginning of the week, with tight capital, the short - term yield weakened, and the ultra - long - term bonds performed strongly, flattening the yield curve. Later, as the central bank's capital support took effect, the cross - month capital market was moderately loose. The medium - and short - term bonds strengthened overall, while the ultra - long - term bonds weakened under the influence of profit - taking sentiment and supply concerns, making the yield curve steeper [30]. Capital Market - The central bank net - injected 967.8 billion yuan through four major tools. At the beginning of the month, due to a large supply of bonds, capital prices gradually increased. In the middle of the month, affected by the reserve - requirement payment day and the deferred repurchase agreement, the capital market tightened. On the evening of January 14, the central bank announced an over - amount renewal of 90 billion yuan in repurchase agreements, with a net injection of 30 billion yuan this month, and the capital market gradually loosened. At the end of the month, facing the tax - payment period, capital prices increased again, and the central bank net - injected 7 - day funds to support liquidity, but the amount was not large [31]. - In January, capital prices generally increased. The monthly average of R001 increased 5bp to 1.41%, and the monthly average of R007 decreased 2bp to 1.55%. The monthly average of DR001 increased 6bp to 1.34%, and the monthly average of DR007 increased 2bp to 1.51%. The 3M inter - bank certificate of deposit (NCD) issuance rate oscillated in the range and then increased at the end of the month. The FR007 - 1Y swap rate first rose and then fell, and recovered at the end of the month. The 3M national - share bank bill rate first rose, then fell, and then recovered. As of January 30, the 3M national - share bank bill rate was 1.45%, and the monthly average from January 4 to 30 increased month - on - month and decreased year - on - year [33]. Secondary Market Trends - In January, yields first rose and then fell. Except for 3m, 3y, 20y, and 30y, the Treasury interest rates of other key tenors declined. Except for 5y - 3y, 7y - 5y, and 50y - 30y, the term spreads of other key tenors of Treasury bonds widened. As of January 30, the yields of 7y and 5y Treasury bonds decreased 6bp and 5bp respectively compared with December 31, reaching 1.68% and 1.58%, with relatively large declines. The term spreads of 30y - 10y and 3y - 1y widened 6bp compared with December 31, reaching 48bp and 10bp respectively, with relatively large widening amplitudes [42]. - In January 2026, the spread between new and old 10Y Treasury bonds first widened and then narrowed, the negative spread between new and old 10Y China Development Bank bonds narrowed, and the spread between the second - active and active 30Y Treasury bonds first rose and then fell [44]. Bond Market Sentiment - In January 2026, the inter - bank leverage ratio first rose and then fell, the spread between 30Y and 10Y Treasury bonds continued to widen, and the duration of bond funds first increased and then decreased within the month. The weekly average turnover rate of 30Y Treasury bonds in January 2026 increased slightly compared with December 2025. Compared with December 31, 2025, the spread between 50Y and 30Y Treasury bonds narrowed 2.9bp, and the spread between 30Y and 10Y Treasury bonds widened 5.8bp on January 30, 2026. The inter - bank leverage ratio rose to 108.2% at the beginning of January and fell to 107.4% at the end of the month, and the exchange leverage ratio continued to decline and fell to 123.0% at the end of the month. Compared with December 31, 2025, the median duration of the full - sample bond funds remained basically the same on January 30, 2026, and the median duration of interest - rate bond funds decreased by 0.04 years. The implied tax rate of 10Y China Development Bank bonds widened in January 2026 compared with December 2025 [50]. Bond Supply - In January 2026, the net financing amount of interest - rate bonds increased compared with December 2025 and January 2025. As of January 31, 2026, the net financing amount of interest - rate bonds in January 2026 was 133.12 billion yuan, an increase of 85.24 billion yuan compared with December 2025 and an increase of 29.77 billion yuan compared with the same period in 2025. The net financing amounts of Treasury bonds, local government bonds, and policy - financial bonds all increased month - on - month [54]. - In January 2026, the issuance scale of Treasury bonds decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. From January 1 to January 31, 2026, a total of 13 Treasury bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 121.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 60.41 billion yuan compared with December 2025 and an increase of 19.85 billion yuan compared with January 2025, of which the proportion of those with a term of 1 year or less was 29%. On January 14, a new 30Y coupon - bearing Treasury bond 260002.IB was issued, with an issuance scale of 3.2 billion yuan and an issuance interest rate of 2.38%. On February 6, this 30Y coupon - bearing Treasury bond will be re - issued with 3.2 billion yuan [57]. - In January 2026, the issuance scale of local government bonds increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the issuance scale of local bonds will be large next week. From January 1 to January 31, 2026, 27 policy - financial bonds were issued, with an issuance scale of 69.28 billion yuan, an increase of 45.88 billion yuan compared with December 2025 and an increase of 12.58 billion yuan compared with the same period in 2025. 135 local government bonds were issued, with an issuance scale of 86.33 billion yuan, an increase of 57.96 billion yuan compared with December 2025 and an increase of 30.58 billion yuan compared with the same period in 2025. According to iFinD data as of January 31, 2026, it is planned to issue 57.97 billion yuan in local bonds from February 2 to February 6 [59]. - In January 2026, the net repayment amount of inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) increased, and the monthly issuance interest rate decreased. The total issuance amount of inter - bank NCDs in January 2026 was 169.34 billion yuan, a decrease of 143.57 billion yuan compared with December 2025. The total repayment amount was 231.62 billion yuan, and the net repayment amount was 62.28 billion yuan, an increase of 4.52 billion yuan month - on - month. The average issuance interest rate of NCDs in January 2026 was 1.62%, a decrease of 2.4bp compared with December 2025 [60]. Economic Data - In January, the manufacturing PMI returned to the contraction range. On January 31, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that China's manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, the previous value was 50.1%; the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, the previous value was 50.2%; the comprehensive manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, the previous value was 50.7% [63]. - Since January, second - hand housing transactions have recovered, and industrial production has weakened marginally. In terms of real - estate, the monthly average of the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities turned negative month - on - month but the year - on - year decline narrowed. The monthly average of the transaction area of second - hand housing in 13 cities turned positive month - on - month and the year - on - year decline narrowed. The monthly average of the land transaction area in 100 cities turned negative month - on - month and the year - on - year decline widened. In terms of consumption, movie monthly consumption was weak both month - on - month and year - on - year, travel increased month - on - month, and subway passenger volume was stronger than the seasonal level. In terms of exports, the monthly port throughput increased year - on - year, and the freight rate index continued to decline year - on - year. Industrial production weakened marginally. The monthly average of daily coal consumption in power plants increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The monthly average of the PTA and semi - steel tire operating rates increased month - on - month, while the operating rates of other indicators decreased month - on - month [63][65]. - The high - frequency infrastructure and price data in January showed that inventory indicators increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the prices of crude oil and asphalt increased significantly. In terms of infrastructure high - frequency data, the monthly average of the mill operating rate decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year, and the monthly average of the asphalt operating rate decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The monthly average of rebar inventory increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. Among price indicators, the monthly average of cement and vegetable price indicators decreased month - on - month, while the monthly average of other price indicators increased month - on - month [66]. Overseas Bond Market - The Federal Reserve announced to keep interest rates unchanged. On January 28, the Federal Reserve ended its two - day monetary policy meeting and announced to keep the target range of the federal funds rate unchanged between 3.5% and 3.75%, which was in line with market expectations. The Federal Open Market Committee stated that existing indicators showed that the US economic activity was expanding steadily, but the uncertainty of the economic outlook remained high. Employment growth was persistently low, the unemployment rate showed some signs of stabilizing, and inflation remained at a relatively high level. Among the 12 members of the Federal Open Market Committee, 10 supported the monetary policy decision, and 2 members, Stephen Milan and Christopher Waller, voted against it, advocating a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut [71]. - The US PPI increase in December exceeded expectations. On January 30, data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the US PPI in December increased 3% year - on - year, with an expected increase of 2.8% and a previous value of 3%; it increased 0.5% month - on - month, with an expected increase of 0.2% and a previous value of 0.2%. The core PPI in December increased 3.3% year - on - year, with an expected increase of 2.9% and a previous value of 3%; it increased 0.7% month - on - month, with an expected increase of 0.2% and a previous value of 0% [71]. - Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve. On January 30, US President Trump nominated former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve, and this nomination needs to be approved by the Senate. Warsh joined the Federal Reserve in 2006 and was the youngest Federal Reserve governor at that time. In terms of monetary policy, he had a somewhat hawkish stance in the past and emphasized fiscal discipline and a more cautious attitude towards interest - rate cuts [72]. -

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Penghua Science and Technology Bond ETF (551030) has experienced a slight pullback, with active trading and a turnover rate of 46.94%, indicating a vibrant market environment ahead of the Chinese New Year [1] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has implemented net liquidity injections, and the Shibor short-term rates have declined, reflecting confidence in the central bank's liquidity management tools, which are expected to support bond market sentiment [1] - The Penghua Science and Technology Bond ETF tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange AAA-rated technology innovation corporate bond index, which selects bonds with AAA ratings and above, providing advantages such as low fees, low trading costs, high transparency, and high efficiency in fund utilization [1] Group 2 - Penghua Fund has established a long-term strategy for fixed-income tools since the second half of 2018, actively developing various fixed-income index products and aiming to become a domestic expert in fixed-income indices [1][2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core View of the Report - From January 20th to January 26th, the bond market seller sentiment index declined, while the buyer sentiment index started to rise from negative to 0. The bond market allocation force steadily entered the market, and the suppression of the equity market slowed down, driving the long - term bonds to have a repair market. However, the expected time for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts is still far off, and the market has a strong expectation of range - bound fluctuations in the market. The seller sentiment cooled slightly, and the market's judgment on the subsequent space remains cautious [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Seller Market Sentiment 3.1.1 Seller Market Interest Rate Bond Sentiment Index - From January 20th to January 26th, the unweighted tracking index was 0.07, a decrease of 0.07 compared with January 13th - January 19th. Some institutional market views turned neutral. Currently, institutions generally hold a neutral - to - bullish view, with 5 bullish, 22 neutral, and 3 bearish. 17% of institutions are bullish, believing that the warming of easing expectations and the decline in capital interest rates establish a favorable environment, combined with fundamental support and reverse layout opportunities. The bond market has a ceiling but also room below, showing a short - term bearish and long - term bullish pattern. 73% of institutions are neutral, thinking that the recovery of the fundamentals and supply pressure pose a suppression, but the allocation force and loose capital supply provide support, and the regulatory desirable range restricts the downward space. The bond market may maintain range - bound fluctuations. 10% of institutions are bearish, expecting that the lack of confidence during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period is expected to reverse, the long - term low - interest - rate expectation faces correction, and in the short term, under the suppression of supply shocks and the recovery of risk appetite, the bond market still has downward pressure [13]. 3.1.2 Buyer Market Interest Rate Bond Sentiment Index - From January 20th to January 26th, the unweighted tracking sentiment index was 0.00, an increase of 0.15 compared with January 13th - January 19th. The sentiment index started to rise from negative to 0. Currently, institutions generally hold a neutral view, with 5 bullish, 16 neutral, and 5 bearish. 19% of institutions are bullish, believing that the expected cooling of the stock market and hedging demand form a bullish support. The long - term decline of the population and real estate cycles establishes a low - interest - rate environment, combined with the warming of expectations for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts and the alleviation of previous suppression factors, the bond market sentiment is significantly bullish. 62% of institutions are neutral, stating that although the expectation of MLF interest rate cuts and moderately loose monetary policy provide some support, under the money - attracting effect of the stock market and the constraints of the central bank's desirable range, the bond market may maintain a volatile pattern. 19% of institutions are bearish, believing that the long - term fundamentals weaken under the expectation of stable inflation and economic improvement, combined with the supply pressure of ultra - long - term bonds and credit risk disturbances. Without new bullish factors, it is difficult to break through the central bank's range downward [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the current position of bond market sentiment through seven indicators, including the bond market sentiment index, institutional duration, leverage ratio, secondary trading, institutional allocation power, primary subscription, and relative valuation. It provides data on the changes in these indicators over the past week, reflecting the dynamics of the bond market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market Sentiment Index - Last week, the bond market sentiment index was 116.1, up 0.1 from the previous value; the bond market sentiment diffusion index was 50.1%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous value [2]. 3.2 Institutional Duration Tracking - As of last Friday, the fund duration was 1.39 years, up 0.03 years from the previous Friday; the duration of city and rural commercial banks was 6.71 years, down 0.07 years; the insurance duration was 7.56 years, down 0.01 years [2]. 3.3 Leverage Ratio Tracking - Last week, the balance of pledged repurchase was 12.5 trillion yuan, down 0.1 trillion yuan from the previous value; the net lending balance of large - scale banks was 5.4 trillion yuan, down 0.1 trillion yuan; the bond market leverage ratio was 103.8%, unchanged from the previous value [2]. 3.4 Secondary Trading Tracking - In terms of turnover rate last week, the turnover rate of 30Y treasury bonds was 2.4%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous value; the turnover rate of 10Y treasury bonds was 0.7%, down 0.3 percentage points; the turnover rate of 10Y CDB bonds was 23.0%, down 0.5 percentage points; the turnover rate of ultra - long - term credit bonds was 0.25%, up 0.05 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Institutional Allocation Power Tracking - The newly issued shares of bond funds last week were 5.1 billion yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the stock market risk premium was 0.53%, unchanged from the previous value; the US dollar index was 98.4, down 0.8 from the previous value. The 6M bill transfer discount rate - 6M certificate of deposit rose 1.2bp to - 46.6bp, indicating an increase in loan demand. In terms of institutional allocation power, the bond allocation index of city and rural commercial banks was - 56.4%, down 76.6 percentage points from the previous value; the insurance bond allocation index was 68.4%, down 6.2 percentage points; the money fund bond allocation index was - 32.2%, up 47.2 percentage points; the insurance's allocation index for Tier 2 and perpetual bonds was 4.9%, down 6.9 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Primary Subscription Tracking - Last week, the overall multiple of treasury bonds increased by 0.9 times to 4.4 times; the overall multiple of local bonds increased by 0.5 times to 20.0 times; the overall multiple of CDB bonds decreased by 0.1 times to 3.7 times [2]. 3.7 Relative Valuation Tracking - Last week, the spread between 10 - year CDB bonds and treasury bonds narrowed by 1.0bp to 15.9bp; the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds widened by 3.2bp to 48.0bp; the spread between old and new 10 - year CDB bonds widened by 1.3bp to - 3.9bp; the spread between 10 - year local bonds and treasury bonds narrowed by 4.3bp to 16.9bp [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The reading of the bond market micro - trading thermometer has rebounded to 48%, an increase of 8 percentage points from the previous period. Most indicator quantiles have risen, with only a few showing a decline [13]. - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range has increased to 25%. Among the 20 micro - indicators, the number in the over - heated range has risen to 5 (25%), in the neutral range to 8 (40%), and in the cold range has decreased to 7 (35%) [17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1.本期微观交易温度计读数转为回升至 48% - The "Guojin Securities Fixed - Income Bond Market Micro - trading Thermometer" has rebounded 8 percentage points to 48%. Only the 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate, fund divergence, and market interest rate quantile have dropped by 8, 2, and 1 percentage points respectively, while others have increased to varying degrees [13]. 3.2.本期位于偏热区间的指标数量占比升至 25% - **Transaction Heat Indicators**: The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range has risen to 50%, and the proportion in the neutral range remains 50%, with the proportion in the cold range dropping to 0%. The TL/T long - short ratio has risen from the cold range to the over - heated range, and most other indicator quantiles have slightly rebounded [18]. - **Institutional Behavior Indicators**: The proportions of indicators in the over - heated, neutral, and cold ranges remain 25%, 25%, and 50% respectively. The trading - allocation buying volume quantile has increased by 22 percentage points, and the quantiles of money tightness expectation, allocation disk strength, and listed company wealth management buying volume have also slightly rebounded [22]. - **Interest Rate Spread**: The policy interest rate spread has narrowed by 3bp to 3bp, with the quantile rising by 20 percentage points to 54% and moving from the cold range to the neutral range. The credit spread has widened by 2bp to 54bp, the IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread has narrowed by 1bp to - 1bp, and the Agricultural Development - Guokai spread remains flat. The average of the three spreads remains at 17bp, and its quantile has slightly dropped by 1 percentage point to 59%, still in the neutral range [27]. - **Price Ratio**: The proportion of price - ratio indicators in the cold range has dropped to 75%, and in the neutral range has increased to 25%. The commodity price - ratio quantile has rebounded by 16 percentage points to 34%, moving from the cold range to the neutral range. The stock - bond and real - estate price - ratio quantiles have also rebounded by 3 and 14 percentage points respectively [30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report comprehensively analyzes the bond market from multiple aspects, including bond market sentiment, institutional duration, leverage ratio, secondary trading, allocation power, primary subscription, and relative valuation, and presents the changes in various indicators last week [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market Sentiment - Last week, the bond market sentiment index was 112.3, down 0.3 from the previous value; the bond market sentiment diffusion index was 47.7%, up 1.0 percentage point from the previous value [1]. 3.2 Institutional Duration - As of last Friday, the fund duration was 1.66 years, down 0.01 years from the previous Friday; the rural commercial bank duration was 3.28 years, down 0.08 years from the previous Friday; the insurance duration was 7.57 years, up 0.15 years from the previous Friday [1]. 3.3 Leverage Ratio - Last week, the balance of pledged repurchase was 13.0 trillion yuan, up 0.4 trillion yuan from the previous value; the net lending balance of large - scale banks was 5.0 trillion yuan, up 0.2 trillion yuan from the previous value; the bond market leverage ratio was 103.9%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous value [1]. 3.4 Secondary Trading - In terms of turnover rate last week, the turnover rate of 30Y treasury bonds was 2.0%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous value; the turnover rate of 10Y treasury bonds was 0.4%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous value; the turnover rate of 10Y CDB bonds was 11.3%, down 6.1 percentage points from the previous value; the turnover rate of ultra - long - term credit bonds was 0.31%, up 0.06 percentage points from the previous value [1]. 3.5 Allocation Power - In terms of bond market allocation power, the newly issued share of bond funds last week was 11.2 billion yuan, up 2.4 billion yuan from the previous value; the stock market risk premium was 0.72%, down 0.07 percentage points from the previous value; the US dollar index was 98.0, down 0.4 from the previous value. The 6M bill transfer discount rate - 6M certificate of deposit rose 3.0bp to - 68.8bp, reflecting an increase in loan demand. In terms of institutional allocation power, the bond allocation index of rural commercial banks was - 27.1%, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous value; the bond allocation index of insurance companies was 2.2%, down 52.7 percentage points from the previous value; the bond allocation index of money market funds was - 45.5%, down 91.6 percentage points from the previous value; the allocation index of insurance second - tier perpetual bonds was - 17.2%, down 8.3 percentage points from the previous value [2]. 3.6 Primary Subscription - Last week, the full - field multiple of treasury bonds fell 0.1 times to 2.7 times; the full - field multiple of local bonds fell 4.1 times to 15.2 times; the full - field multiple of CDB bonds was nan times [2]. 3.7 Relative Valuation - Last week, the spread between 10 - year CDB and treasury bonds narrowed 0.8bp to 14.1bp; the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds narrowed 2.8bp to 38.9bp; the spread between old and new 10 - year CDB bonds narrowed 0.2bp to - 7.5bp; the spread between 10 - year local and treasury bonds was 20.8bp, the same as the previous value [2].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report focuses on the bond market sentiment after the economic work conference from December 9th to December 15th, 2025 [4]. Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - During the period from December 9th to December 15th, the sentiment of bond market sellers increased slightly, while that of buyers continued to decline, showing a K-shaped divergence. The market divergence has increased, and the year - end bond allocation market is still weak, waiting for the catalytic effect of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cut expectations [4]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Seller Market Sentiment 1.1 Seller Market Interest - Rate Bond Sentiment Index - From December 9th to December 15th, the tracking unweighted index was 0.21, up 0.13 from December 2nd to December 8th. Some institutions' views turned bullish. Currently, 7 institutions are bullish, 15 are neutral, and 2 are bearish. 29% of institutions are bullish due to insufficient domestic demand, slow credit and social financing data, expectations of further easing policies, oversold technical indicators, and released negative factors. 63% are neutral as the market is insensitive to positive factors, the stock market attracts funds, and bond investors are cautious. 8% are bearish as the bond market's rebound may end, and price recovery and the equity market's spring rally may suppress the bond market [12]. 1.2 Buyer Market Interest - Rate Bond Sentiment Index - From December 9th to December 15th, the tracking unweighted sentiment index was 0.00, lower than that from December 2nd to December 8th. The sentiment index continued to decline. Currently, 4 institutions are bullish, 17 are neutral, and 4 are bearish. 16% of institutions are bullish because of increased economic fundamental pressure, stronger expectations of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and positive signals from the economic work conference. 68% are neutral as the "stock - bond seesaw" effect still exists, potential regulatory policy changes increase market uncertainty, and traditional allocation funds lack motivation. 16% are bearish as there is a policy vacuum at the turn of the year, lack of policy support, and capital games overriding fundamental logic [13].