Core Viewpoint - The company has approved its 2025 semi-annual report and profit distribution plan, highlighting its financial performance and commitment to shareholder returns [17][20][36]. Financial Performance - The company reported an unaudited net profit of RMB 241.70 billion for the first half of 2025, with a distributable profit of RMB 2,541.05 billion [36]. - The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders after deducting preferred stock dividends and perpetual bond interest was RMB 228.41 billion [36]. Profit Distribution Plan - The board approved a cash dividend of RMB 2.36 per 10 shares, totaling RMB 45.80 billion, which represents 20.05% of the net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders [21][36]. - The distribution plan considers shareholder returns, regulatory capital requirements, and sustainable business development [37]. Corporate Governance - The board and supervisory committee confirmed the accuracy and completeness of the semi-annual report, ensuring compliance with legal and regulatory standards [30][32]. - The board meeting held on August 22, 2025, had full attendance, with all resolutions passed unanimously [19][22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week (August 11 - 15), the capital interest rate increased, the average daily lending of large - scale banks rose month - on - month, and funds slightly reduced leverage. - The maturity of certificates of deposit (CDs) increased, and the maturity yields of most CDs with various tenors rose. - In the spot bond trading, the main buyers were money market funds, mainly increasing their holdings of CDs. Funds mainly net sold 7 - 10Y and 20 - 30Y interest - rate bonds, rural commercial banks increased their holdings of 7 - 10Y interest - rate bonds, insurance companies increased their holdings of ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds, and large - scale banks increased their purchases of 1 - 3Y interest - rate bonds. [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monetary Capital - **Open - market operations**: A total of 1.1267 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases matured this week. The central bank cumulatively injected 711.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases from Monday to Friday, and 50 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchases on Friday, with a net liquidity injection of 85.1 billion yuan for the whole week. [5][8] - **Capital price**: As of August 15, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 were 1.44%, 1.49%, 1.4%, and 1.48% respectively, up 9.78BP, 3.2BP, 9.03BP, and 5.47BP from August 8, and were at the 19%, 8%, 17%, and 3% historical percentiles respectively. [5][11] - **Large - scale bank lending**: From August 11 to 15, the total lending scale of large - scale banks was 24.54 trillion yuan, with a daily maximum of 5 trillion yuan and an average daily lending of 4.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 140 billion yuan from the previous week's average. [5][14] - **Pledged repurchase**: The trading volume of pledged repurchase increased, with an average daily trading volume of 8.15 trillion yuan and a daily maximum of 8.36 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.52% from the previous week's average. The proportion of overnight repurchase transactions decreased, with an average daily proportion of 89.8%, a daily maximum of 90.6%, and a decrease of 0.05 percentage points from the previous week's average. As of August 15, it was at the 88.6% percentile. [5][16] 3.2 Certificates of Deposit and Bills - **Issuance and financing**: The issuance scale of CDs this week was basically the same as last week, but the net financing decreased. The total issuance was 774.73 billion yuan, a decrease of 300 million yuan from the previous week; the net financing was - 130.91 billion yuan, a decrease of 307.67 billion yuan from the previous week. [5][18] - **Maturity scale**: The maturity volume of CDs increased this week, with a total of 905.64 billion yuan, an increase of 307.37 billion yuan from the previous week. Next week (August 18 - 22), 794.72 billion yuan of CDs will mature. [18][23] - **Maturity yield**: As of August 15, the maturity yields of 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y CDs of AAA - rated commercial banks were 1.46%, 1.53%, 1.6%, 1.64%, and 1.64% respectively, up 1.1BP, - 0.5BP, 1.26BP, 1.76BP, and 2.25BP from August 8. [5][31] - **Bill interest rate**: As of August 15, the 3M direct - discount rate, 3M transfer - discount rate, 6M direct - discount rate, and 6M transfer - discount rate of national - owned stocks were 1.13%, 0.95%, 0.7%, and 0.63% respectively, down 11BP, 12BP, 7BP, and 7BP from August 8. [5][33] 3.3 Institutional Behavior Tracking - **Leverage ratio**: The inter - bank leverage ratio and the broad - based fund leverage ratio decreased slightly. As of August 15, the inter - bank total leverage ratio in the bond market decreased by 0.20 percentage points to 106.71% from August 8, at the 39.40% historical percentile since 2021. The bank, securities, insurance, and broad - based fund leverage ratios were 103.9%, 187.8%, 129.3%, and 104.9% respectively, with month - on - month changes of 0.26BP, - 10.62BP, 1.16BP, and - 0.19BP from August 8, and were at the 43%, 1%, 76%, and 20% historical percentiles respectively. [36][38] - **Duration adjustment**: Funds reduced duration, while rural commercial banks and insurance companies increased duration. As of August 15, the weighted average net - purchase duration (MA = 10) of funds was 0 years, a significant decrease from 4.23 years on August 8, at the 23% historical percentile; that of rural commercial banks was 3.26 years, turning positive from August 8, at the 82% historical percentile; that of insurance companies was 10.58 years, an increase from August 8, at the 77% historical percentile. [5][40]

Company Overview - Lumen Technologies, Inc. participated in the TD Cowen Communications Infrastructure Summit Conference, with Christopher David Stansbury serving as the Executive VP & CFO [1][2]. Stock Performance - Following the earnings report, Lumen's stock experienced a significant decline of approximately 17%, attributed to a combination of market conditions and investor sentiment [3][4]. - The company is currently facing high leverage at 4.9x, which is a concern for potential investors. However, it is expected that leverage will decrease below 4x upon the completion of the deal with AT&T [4]. Investor Sentiment - There is a notable shift in investor sentiment, with many buy-side investors waiting for leverage to fall below 4x before committing to investments in Lumen [4]. - The existing investor base includes a significant number of passive funds, which may contribute to volatility in stock performance during market downturns [5].

证券研究报告 | 债券点评报告 2025 年 08 月 09 日 【相对估值】上周 10 年国开和国债利差扩大 2.0bp 至 8.3bp，30 年期和 10 年 期国债利差扩大 1.4bp 至 25.7bp，10 年国开老券与新券利差收窄 0.9bp 至 1.2bp。10 年地方与国债利差扩大 2.1bp 至 12.5bp。 风险提示：经济超预期回升，货币政策收紧超预期，通胀超预期回升 张伟 S1090524030002 zhangwei36@cmschina.com.cn 王星缘 S1090525070009 wangxingyuan1@cmschina.com.c n 基金久期基本持平——债市晴雨表 【债市情绪】上周债市情绪指数为 114.8，较前值回升 0.1；债市情绪扩散指数 50.1%，较前值回升 1.3 个百分点。 【机构久期】上周五基金久期为 2.21 年，较前一周五回升 0.01 年；农商行久期 为 3.12 年，较前一周五回升 0.02 年；保险久期为 6.93 年，较前一周五回落 0.01 年。 【杠杆率】上周质押式回购余额为 11.9 万亿元，较前值回升 0.5 万亿元；大行 净融出余 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported production of 84,000 BOE per day, with a composition of 23% oil, 53% natural gas, and 24% NGLs [22] - Average realized prices were $63.1 per barrel of oil, $2.81 per Mcf of gas, and $22.41 per barrel of NGLs, with prehedged realized prices lower by 11% for oil, 21% for gas, and 17% for NGLs compared to the first quarter [22] - Total revenues, including hedges and midstream activities, amounted to $289 million, with adjusted EBITDA of $122 million and operating cash flow of $130 million [23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has initiated 24 acquisitions, spending over $3 billion, and aims to maintain a long-term debt to EBITDA ratio of one times leverage [6][10] - The company plans to increase natural gas volumes to 70% post the Savinol and ICAV acquisitions, projecting natural gas to constitute at least 50% of revenue starting in 2026 [9][10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company anticipates total demand growth of upwards of 25 Bcf of gas per day by 2030, driven by LNG feed gas growth and power generation [16][17] - The San Juan acreage is strategically positioned to meet upcoming demand, with expected supply growth from various regions [18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company focuses on maintaining financial strength, disciplined execution, and reinvestment rates to optimize distributions to unitholders [3][5][9] - The strategy includes acquiring cash-flowing assets at a discount and maintaining a low reinvestment rate to enhance operating cash flow [6][10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the long-term rise of crude prices despite near-term headwinds, emphasizing the importance of maintaining leverage goals [4][10] - The company is optimistic about the natural gas market, expecting to pivot towards gas drilling as demand increases in 2026 [39] Other Important Information - The company plans to maintain production volumes through 2027 while spending less than 50% of operating cash flow and using excess cash to pay down debt [9][10] - The company has a robust operations team that has successfully maintained production levels [29] Q&A Session Summary Question: What part of the legacy Mid Con portfolio delivered strong production volumes? - Management indicated that normal operations and a couple of bolt-on acquisitions contributed to the production strength, with no extraordinary factors involved [29] Question: Can you provide details on the Brocklin 3MH well? - The Brocklin 3MH well is part of the deep Anadarko targets, with completion expected to start in late August to early September [30] Question: What led to a lower distribution this quarter? - A legal settlement reduced the distribution by $0.07 per unit, and lower gas prices contributed another $0.07 reduction compared to the first quarter [36] Question: What is the expected natural gas growth trajectory for 2026? - Management expects natural gas product mix to exceed 70% in 2026, with a strong belief in the market despite near-term headwinds [39] Question: How does the company balance its portfolio between low decline rate assets and emerging growth plays? - The company maintains a balanced portfolio that allows for flexibility in reinvestment rates, enabling growth while keeping production stable [47]

Group 1: Wealth Management Scale - The wealth management scale decreased by CNY 744 billion to CNY 30.92 trillion during the week of July 28 to August 1[1] - In July, the total growth was only CNY 2,469 billion, significantly lower than the historical average of over CNY 10 trillion for the same month[1] - The decline in scale is attributed to ongoing net value decreases and redemption pressures, with short-term and medium-term debt products experiencing maximum drawdowns of 8bp and 6bp respectively[1] Group 2: Leverage Rates - The average leverage level in the interbank market decreased from 107.41% to 107.34% during the week of July 28 to August 1[3] - Non-bank institutions saw a rebound in leverage rates, increasing from 112.10% to 112.34%[3] - Exchange leverage rates also declined slightly from 122.47% to 122.43% during the same period[3] Group 3: Bond Fund Duration - The duration of interest rate-based medium and long-term bond funds decreased from 5.49 years to 5.45 years[4] - Credit bond fund duration reached a historical high of 2.81 years, up from 2.78 years[4] - Short and medium-term bond fund durations decreased to 1.01 years and 1.65 years respectively[4] Group 4: Government Debt Issuance - The planned issuance of government bonds increased to CNY 5,785 billion for the week of August 4-8, up from CNY 5,174 billion[47] - Net issuance of government bonds rose from CNY 2,876 billion to CNY 3,390 billion, primarily due to a significant increase in national bond net issuance[47] - Local government bond issuance for the week of July 28 to August 1 was CNY 3,372 billion, with a net issuance of CNY 2,360 billion[50]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell fully supports Bowman’s proposal regarding leverage ratios [1] Group 1 - The proposal by Bowman aims to address leverage ratios within the financial sector [1]

Group 1: Wealth Management Trends - The wealth management scale decreased by CNY 286.4 billion to CNY 31.33 trillion during the week of June 23-27, 2025, marking a significant decline compared to previous years[1] - Historical data shows that the decline in the second quarter has consistently exceeded CNY 1.1 trillion in recent years, indicating a seasonal pattern[2] - In July, the wealth management scale typically experiences seasonal expansion, with historical increases ranging from CNY 1.4 trillion to CNY 2.2 trillion, while June declines are generally between CNY 0.8 trillion and CNY 1.5 trillion[3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The average daily purchase of liquidity management assets, such as certificates of deposit, was CNY 12.9 billion from June 16-27, significantly higher than the average of CNY 1.4 billion during the same period in 2022-2024[4] - The average leverage ratio in the interbank market rose from 108.00% to 108.11% during the week of June 23-27, indicating increasing leverage despite a controlled liability pressure on banks[5] - The weighted issuance rate of certificates of deposit decreased to 1.64%, reflecting manageable pressure on banks' balance sheets[6] Group 3: Fund Duration and Risk Indicators - The duration of medium- and long-term bond funds decreased, with the duration of interest rate-based funds dropping from 5.29 years to 5.11 years, while credit-based funds saw a slight decrease from 2.44 years to 2.41 years[7] - The overall negative yield rate for wealth management products decreased to 1.46%, down 2.55 percentage points from the previous week, indicating improved performance[8] - The proportion of underperforming wealth management products fell to 16.3%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous week, suggesting a stabilization in product performance[9]

Market Overview - The bond market is currently in a "full bow" state, with the median duration of interest rate bond funds reaching a historical high of 5.25 years as of June 20, 2025[1] - The leverage ratio for non-bank financial institutions is approximately 113.9%, up from a low of 113.5% in mid-February 2025, but still below the historical peak of 118.5%[1] Yield Spread Analysis - The yield spread between new and old bonds has been fully explored, with the yield on long-term active bonds declining by about 5 basis points, while older bonds have seen declines of 8-9 basis points[2] - The yield spread between 10-year national development bonds and national treasury bonds has narrowed from a high of 7.2 basis points to the current 3.7 basis points[2] Market Dynamics - The bond market has been characterized by a lack of clear direction, with 12 historical rounds of yield spread compression analyzed, showing that 8 rounds occurred in uncertain market conditions[3] - The compression of yield spreads is often concluded by clear market signals such as interest rate cuts or significant supply increases, which could lead to a re-expansion of spreads[3] Future Outlook - The process of compressing yield spreads may continue until the central bank initiates bond purchases or provides stronger signals, such as allowing treasury bonds to meet reserve requirements[4] - The market is expected to experience increased volatility following the implementation of new monetary policies, particularly around natural easing points like the beginning of a quarter[4] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected adjustments in monetary policy, liquidity changes, and fiscal policy shifts that could impact market stability[5]

Group 1: Market Overview - From June 9-13, the second round of China-US negotiations became a major variable affecting interest rate trends, with tariffs remaining unchanged, benefiting bonds and gold as safe-haven assets[1] - As the tax period approached, liquidity tightened, leading to cautious short-term pricing in the bond market, with interest rates and similar rate products slowing down[1] - The one-year government bond yield struggled to break 1.4%, resulting in an overly flat yield curve[3] Group 2: Liquidity and Central Bank Actions - Market concerns about liquidity stability eased as the month progressed, with 1.83 trillion yuan in interbank certificates of deposit successfully renewed[2] - The central bank's proactive measures included increasing the daily open market operation (OMO) injection to 202.5 billion yuan on June 13, reflecting a firm stance on liquidity support[2] - The central bank's actions shifted from implicit to explicit, effectively guiding market expectations and stabilizing funding rates[2] Group 3: Yield Curve Dynamics - Historical analysis indicates that extreme flattening of the yield curve is often linked to central bank tightening, with subsequent steepening reliant on a shift in the central bank's stance[3] - The current yield curve is at a critical point where it may transition from flat to steep, contingent on the central bank's future actions and market adaptation[3] - The 10Y-1Y yield spread is currently at 24 basis points, placing it in the 13th percentile of historical data, indicating limited room for further compression[3] Group 4: Investment Strategy - In anticipation of a potential steepening of the yield curve, investment strategies should focus on increasing duration in portfolios, particularly in 10-year non-active bonds and high-quality local government bonds[6] - The duration of interest rate bond funds has reached a historical high of 5.23 years, while credit bond funds have risen to 2.43 years, indicating heightened risk exposure in the market[6] - Despite high duration levels, the market's sensitivity to negative factors may increase, necessitating careful monitoring of market conditions[6]