权益投资活跃度

Search documents
基差方向周度预测-20250523
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-23 12:20
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2) Core Viewpoints - The reduction of the 5 - month LPR by 10bp and domestic banks' cuts in deposit rates may lead to a shift of deposits, potentially lowering yields of other currency and fixed - income products and increasing the activity of equity investment [2] - The IPO rhythm of technology companies is expected to significantly increase, and the increased supply of new stocks may siphon off funds from small - cap stocks, constraining their gains. Meanwhile, long - term investment reform pilots and the arrival of insurance funds' off - balance - sheet private equity funds may support the performance of large - cap blue - chip stocks, with the market style likely to continue favoring large - cap over small - cap stocks [2] - The trading volume of the entire A - share market has not improved, and the index is still in a volatile trend. The basis of IH and IF remains flat compared to last week, while the discounts of IC and IM have further widened due to the stock game in small - cap stocks, but the discounts are expected to converge [2] - The model predicts that the basis of IH, IF, and IM will strengthen next week, while the basis of IC will weaken [3] 3) Summary by Related Content Market Policy Impact - The 5 - month LPR was cut by 10bp, and domestic banks reduced deposit rates, with the one - year fixed - deposit rate falling below 1%. This may cause a shift of deposits, affecting the yields of other products and increasing equity investment activity [2] - The press conference mentioned deepening the IPO system reform for innovation and entrepreneurship and supporting the listing of technology companies, which will increase the supply of new stocks and may impact small - cap stocks. Long - term investment reform pilots and the arrival of insurance funds' off - balance - sheet private equity funds may support large - cap blue - chip stocks [2] Market Performance - The daily trading volume of the entire A - share market was slightly over one trillion, and the index was in a volatile trend. On Friday, there were large sell - offs in index ETFs, causing a rapid decline in broad - based indices. The weekly lines of the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 turned down, and the CSI 500 and 1000 fell by over 1% [2] Basis Situation - The basis of IH and IF remained at the same level as last week, while the discounts of IC and IM widened due to the small - cap stock game. The widening of single - day discounts for a long time may be due to speculative hedging. With the increasing congestion in small - cap stocks, the discounts are expected to converge [2] Basis Forecast - The model predicts that the basis of IH, IF, and IM will strengthen next week, while the basis of IC will weaken [3]