钛媒体App 8月21日消息，中国民生银行首席经济学家兼研究院院长温彬指出，结合近期数据看，7月以 来多项指标显示实体经济修复出现一定波折，社零增速有所回落，地产投资仍在承压，信贷需求有待增 加，外需面临的不确定性风险尚未完全出清，一定程度上意味着宏观政策保持加码的必要性仍在。下半 年为稳信用、促内需、强协同，保持政策连续、稳定，货币政策仍将保持支持性立场。温彬还称，考虑 到个人消费贷款和服务业经营主体贷款贴息政策有效降低实体融资成本，结构性政策更能精准发力、避 免资金空转，以及存款加速活化、物价温和回升的趋势，年内再度降准降息的时点可能后移，LPR报价 下调时点也会相应延后。（广角观察） ...

【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 格隆汇8月21日｜首席经济学家兼研究院院长温彬指出，结合近期数据看，7月以来多项指标显示实体经 济修复出现一定波折，社零增速有所回落，地产投资仍在承压，信贷需求有待增加，外需面临的不确定 性风险尚未完全出清，一定程度上意味着宏观政策保持加码的必要性仍在。下半年为稳信用、促内需、 强协同，保持政策连续、稳定，货币政策仍将保持支持性立场。温彬还称，考虑到个人消费贷款和服务 业经营主体贷款贴息政策有效降低实体融资成本，结构性政策更能精准发力、避免资金空转，以及存款 加速活化、物价温和回升的趋势，年内再度降准降息的时点可能后移，LPR报价下调时点也会相应延 后。 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - As of June 23, 2025, most government bond futures closed lower, with the 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year contracts down by 0.02%, 0.04%, and 0.05% respectively, while the 30-year contract rose by 0.02% [1] - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera (511130) saw a slight increase of 0.01%, marking its 12th consecutive rise, with the latest price at 113.01 yuan [1] - The trading volume for the 30-year government bond ETF was active, with a turnover of 17.19% and a transaction value of 1.339 billion yuan [1] Group 2: LPR and Economic Outlook - The People's Bank of China announced the latest LPR rates on June 20, 2025, with the 1-year rate at 3.0% and the 5-year and above rate at 3.5%, unchanged from the previous month [1] - Looking ahead, there is potential for LPR to be lowered further in the second half of the year due to uncertainties in the external environment and efforts to stabilize the real estate market [2] - The anticipated reduction in LPR is expected to lower financing costs for enterprises and households, stimulating internal financing demand and supporting investment and consumption [2] Group 3: Fund Performance and Metrics - The latest scale of the 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera reached 7.778 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 274 million yuan over the past three days [3] - The fund has shown strong performance, with a 14.27% increase in net value over the past year, ranking 4th out of 406 index bond funds [3] - Historical data indicates a maximum monthly return of 5.35% and a 100% probability of profit over a one-year holding period [3] Group 4: Risk and Fees - The maximum drawdown since the inception of the 30-year government bond ETF is 6.89%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 1.28% [4] - The management fee for the 30-year government bond ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05% [5] Group 5: Tracking Accuracy - As of June 20, 2025, the tracking error for the 30-year government bond ETF over the past month was 0.048% [6] - The ETF closely tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange 30-year government bond index, which reflects the overall performance of the corresponding maturity government bonds [6]

东方金诚宏观研究 另外，考虑到下半年稳楼市政策需进一步加力，特别是 5 月 7 日央行宣布下调公积金贷 款利率 0.25 个百分点，为后期居民商业房贷利率下调打开了空间，预计下半年监管层有可能 通过单独引导 5 年期以上 LPR 报价下行等方式，推动居民房贷利率更大幅度下调。这是现阶 段缓解实际房贷利率偏高问题，激发购房需求，扭转楼市预期的关键一招。 1 6 月 LPR 报价持稳符合市场预期，下半年还有下调空间 王青 李晓峰 冯琳 事件： 2025 年 6 月 20 日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布新版 LPR 报价：1 年 期品种报 3.0%，上月为 3.0%；5 年期以上品种报 3.5%，上月为 3.5%。 解读： 6 月两个期限品种的 LPR 报价保持不变，符合市场预期。主要原因是 5 月央行实施政策 性降息后，当月两个期限品种的 LPR 报价同步下调，当前正在向贷款利率传导；6 月政策利 率保持不变，影响 LPR 报价加点的因素也没有发生重大变化，因此 6 月两个期限品种的 LPR 报价不动符合市场预期。我们预计，短期内将进入政策观察期，LPR 报价有可能继续保持稳 定。 往后看，下半年 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2) Core Viewpoints - The reduction of the 5 - month LPR by 10bp and domestic banks' cuts in deposit rates may lead to a shift of deposits, potentially lowering yields of other currency and fixed - income products and increasing the activity of equity investment [2] - The IPO rhythm of technology companies is expected to significantly increase, and the increased supply of new stocks may siphon off funds from small - cap stocks, constraining their gains. Meanwhile, long - term investment reform pilots and the arrival of insurance funds' off - balance - sheet private equity funds may support the performance of large - cap blue - chip stocks, with the market style likely to continue favoring large - cap over small - cap stocks [2] - The trading volume of the entire A - share market has not improved, and the index is still in a volatile trend. The basis of IH and IF remains flat compared to last week, while the discounts of IC and IM have further widened due to the stock game in small - cap stocks, but the discounts are expected to converge [2] - The model predicts that the basis of IH, IF, and IM will strengthen next week, while the basis of IC will weaken [3] 3) Summary by Related Content Market Policy Impact - The 5 - month LPR was cut by 10bp, and domestic banks reduced deposit rates, with the one - year fixed - deposit rate falling below 1%. This may cause a shift of deposits, affecting the yields of other products and increasing equity investment activity [2] - The press conference mentioned deepening the IPO system reform for innovation and entrepreneurship and supporting the listing of technology companies, which will increase the supply of new stocks and may impact small - cap stocks. Long - term investment reform pilots and the arrival of insurance funds' off - balance - sheet private equity funds may support large - cap blue - chip stocks [2] Market Performance - The daily trading volume of the entire A - share market was slightly over one trillion, and the index was in a volatile trend. On Friday, there were large sell - offs in index ETFs, causing a rapid decline in broad - based indices. The weekly lines of the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 turned down, and the CSI 500 and 1000 fell by over 1% [2] Basis Situation - The basis of IH and IF remained at the same level as last week, while the discounts of IC and IM widened due to the small - cap stock game. The widening of single - day discounts for a long time may be due to speculative hedging. With the increasing congestion in small - cap stocks, the discounts are expected to converge [2] Basis Forecast - The model predicts that the basis of IH, IF, and IM will strengthen next week, while the basis of IC will weaken [3]

Group 1: LPR Adjustment - The LPR for 1-year and 5-year terms was lowered by 0.1 percentage points to 3.0% and 3.50% respectively[1] - This marks the first reduction after six months of stability, driven by a recent package of financial policies from the central bank[2] - The adjustment reflects a change in the pricing basis for LPR, indicating a transmission of policy rate adjustments to loan market rates[2] Group 2: Economic Context - The reduction in LPR is a response to the escalation of the US-China tariff conflict, necessitating stronger counter-cyclical adjustments in macro policy[2] - Lowering policy rates aims to stimulate domestic demand to offset external demand slowdown, thereby stabilizing economic operations[2] - The central bank is expected to continue implementing interest rate cuts in the second half of the year due to ongoing uncertainties in the external environment[3] Group 3: Impact on Deposits and Banks - The 1-year LPR reduction is anticipated to lead to a comprehensive decrease in deposit rates, averaging a decline of 0.1 percentage points[4] - Short-term deposit rates will see smaller reductions, while longer-term deposit rates may experience more significant declines[4] - The latest data shows that the net interest margin for commercial banks fell to 1.43% in Q1 2025, down by 0.09 percentage points, marking a historical low[4]