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定价权“南移”重构中国资产估值坐标,A+H龙头企业价值如何演变?
格隆汇APP· 2025-07-08 09:43
Core Viewpoint - The trend of A-share companies listing in Hong Kong (A+H) has intensified, particularly since 2024, with significant companies like Midea Group, SF Express, and CATL leading this wave, injecting vitality and opportunities into the Hong Kong market while reflecting a profound shift in the pricing power of core Chinese assets towards Hong Kong [1][3][33] Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - The total fundraising amounts and market capitalizations of key companies listed in Hong Kong show varying performance, with Midea Group raising 31.04 billion HKD and a market cap of 580.4 billion HKD, while CATL raised 35.66 billion HKD with a market cap of 1.41 trillion HKD, indicating a strong market response [2] - The Hang Seng-Hushen Connect AH Share Premium Index has declined for two consecutive years, with a drop of over 9% this year, suggesting that H-shares are outperforming A-shares [4] - In 2024, net inflows from southbound trading exceeded 800 billion HKD, marking a historical high, with southbound trading volume surpassing 50% of the total trading volume of the Hang Seng Index for the first time [7] Group 2: Valuation and Pricing Power - The systematic shift of pricing power towards the Hong Kong market indicates that it has become a key battleground for the valuation of core assets [3][8] - The core assets are concentrated in three main areas: AI technology, new consumption revolution, and innovative pharmaceuticals, with significant improvements in asset quality [8] - The valuation of leading companies like SF Express is expected to rise, benefiting from the "southward pricing" trend, which is anticipated to enhance the overall valuation framework of the A-share market [22][30] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - SF Express has demonstrated strong market competitiveness and growth potential, with a projected net profit of 10.17 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23.51% [8][26] - The company's investment in R&D is set to reach 3.09 billion CNY in 2024, leveraging advanced technologies to enhance operational efficiency and customer experience [26] - SF Express's business model is diversified across multiple logistics sectors, which strengthens its market adaptability and revenue stability [26][30] Group 4: Future Outlook - The increasing number of leading companies listing in Hong Kong is expected to marginally enhance the pricing power of core assets, which will also influence the A-share market [22] - The trend of institutional investors gaining a larger share in both Hong Kong and A-share markets suggests a shift towards core assets, with a potential for A-shares to align more closely with global valuation standards [21][22] - The ongoing capital flow and the "southward pricing" trend are likely to create a favorable environment for the valuation of technology growth stocks and blue-chip stocks in the A-share market [22][30]
每日投行/机构观点梳理(2025-05-26)
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-05-27 01:53
国外 1. 高盛:人民币兑美元每升值1%,中国股市可上涨3% 高盛策略师表示,中国股市料将受益于人民币进一步上涨;在中美贸易争端中,人民币展现韧性。其预 测,人民币兑美元每升值1%,就能推动中国股市上涨3%,这得益于企业获利前景改善和外资流入增加 等因素。高盛表示,人民币的前景支持了他们对中国股票的超配立场,在一个强势货币下,非必需消费 品、房地产和券商股通常会表现出色。 2. 高盛:黄金比BTC更能有效对冲美元崩溃的风险 据福布斯报道,高盛全球大宗商品研究联席主管Daan Struyven指出,黄金比BTC更能有效对冲美元崩溃 的风险,风险回报分析利好黄金,比特币和黄金在过去三年中均大幅上涨,但比特币的波动性更大,对 回撤也更敏感,并且与科技股的正相关性更高,因此如果想防范股票下行风险,较低的相关性和较低的 波动性意味着对黄金的相当显著的正向配置。 摩根士丹利称,未来几个月港元银行同业拆息(Hibor)可能从近期跌势中反弹,因为市场中一些过剩流动 性可能会被重新吸收。Hibor近期下跌可归因于三个关键因素:香港金管局注入大量港元流动性以维持 汇率区间;美元抛售压力减轻;股票资金流入对港元的需求减弱。"我们认 ...
4月金融总量数据稳中向好,机构:未来主动型公募会更加聚焦核心资产定价
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-05-15 09:35
低费率A500ETF基金(512050)助力投资者一键配置A股核心资产。跟踪中证A500指数,采取行业均衡配 置与龙头优选双策略,紧密跟踪中国经济结构变化,融合价值与成长属性,天然具备哑铃配置策略,适 合长期投资及定投。场外联接(A类:022430;C类:022431) 4月金融数据出炉。央行发布数据显示,2025年4月末我国社会融资规模存量同比增8.7%,广义货币供 应量M2同比增8%,增速均较3月提速;人民币贷款余额同比增7.2%。业内专家指出,前四月金融总量 上行叠加融资成本下行,社融、M2及信贷增速持续高于名义GDP,印证货币政策适度宽松基调,为宏 观经济平稳运行提供坚实支撑。 展望后市,中信证券认为,基准偏离和盈利客户比率可能是公募考核新规影响最大的两个规则。过去3 年公募普遍跑输基准,低配银行是部分原因,频繁交易和板块轮动也产生负向贡献。向基准靠拢和保守 化配置是大势所趋,但过程是动态的,绝非简单做多低配行业。未来主动型公募会更加聚焦核心资产定 价而不是边际信息流定价,策略范式可能出现整体性调整。未来资管行业当中相对收益和绝对收益产品 的策略、选股范围和定价模式会呈现明显分化。 5月15日,三大指 ...