固收+系列报告之九 证券研究报告 | 2025年12月29日 2025年12月30日 公募 REITs2026 年投资展望：攻守之道与价值掘金 市场复盘：自首批公募 REITs 2021 年上市以来，我国公募 REITs 一级认购 倍数呈现显著波动走势，整体波动由产品供给稀缺性、市场情绪及资产类型 收益预期共同驱动。二级市场收益表现介于沪深 300 与中证全债之间，与中 证转债的股债混合属性形成互补，不同年份收益位次因底层资产、利率、政 策及市场环境差异而显著分化。从长期特征看，REITs 波动率低于沪深 300 和中证转债，高于中证全债，且与其他资产收益相关度低，兼具债性稳定与 股性弹性，适合平衡组合波动。 机构配置：当前公募 REITs 流通盘的持有主体高度集中，机构投资者主导， 券商自营是绝对主力，占比达 51.3%；其次是保险资金（19.9%）和产业资本 （13.6%），以上三类机构投资者合计占比超 84%；私募基金（5.5%）、信托 （3.6%）、其他资管（3.7%）等占比相对较低，个人投资者、公募基金、券 商资管、银行理财的持有比例均不足 1%。不同类型公募 REITs 的流通盘持有 人结构呈现显 ...

12月25日，银行板块小幅回暖，个股多数飘红，截至发稿，瑞丰银行涨超2%，光大银行、中信银行、上海银行等涨幅居前。全市场规模最大的银行ETF （512800）场内价格现涨0.24%，站上5日线。 太平洋证券表示，当前银行板块估值较低，业绩改善趋势明确，基于市场风格轮动优势以及基本面持续改善等多重因素，银行重演上涨行情具有较高概率。 方正证券表示，看好银行基本面修复同资金面积极共振。一方面上市银行2026年营收、利润表现有望改善，将支撑板块低估值、高股息的优势进一步凸显； 另一方面，随监管持续指引中长期资金入市，险资等机构也有望持续加大银行板块配置规模，板块有望实现业绩、估值双升。 顺势而起，攻守兼备！银行ETF（512800）及其联接基金（A类：240019；C类：006697）被动跟踪中证银行指数，成份股囊括A股42家上市银行，是跟踪 银行板块整体行情的高效投资工具。银行ETF（512800）最新规模超130亿元，年内日均成交额超8亿元，为A股10只银行业ETF中规模最大、流动性最佳！ 数据来源：沪深交易所等。 风险提示：银行ETF被动跟踪中证银行指数，该指数基日为2004.12.31，发布于2013.7. ...

12月25日，银行板块小幅回暖，个股多数飘红，截至发稿，瑞丰银行涨超2%，光大银行、中信银行、 上海银行等涨幅居前。全市场规模最大的银行ETF（512800）场内价格现涨0.24%，站上5日线。 对于跨年前后的行情，机构认为仍需以结构性机会为主，预计呈现"政策预期驱动+盈利修复验证"双轮 驱动特征，可对科技与高股息板块进行"哑铃配置策略"。 有机构提示，岁末年初高股息往往有较高胜率。季节效应显示，年末投资者存在盈利兑现的偏好、叠加 险资"开门红"预期下对红利的配置需求，高股息风格或胜率较高。 经过前期回调，银行板块再度回到高性价比区间，估值、股息优势凸显。截至12月24日，银行ETF （512800）跟踪的中证银行指数市净率PB仅0.7倍，位于近10年41.29%分位点的低位区间；同期指数股 息率达4.95%，相较10年期国债收益率表征的无风险利率水平（1.84%）超额逾3个百分点。 太平洋证券表示，当前银行板块估值较低，业绩改善趋势明确，基于市场风格轮动优势以及基本面持续 改善等多重因素，银行重演上涨行情具有较高概率。 方正证券表示，看好银行基本面修复同资金面积极共振。一方面上市银行2026年营收、利润表现 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the performance and growth of the Dividend Low Volatility ETF Taikang (560150), which has seen significant inflows and a rise in its scale to 917 million yuan, marking a new high since its inception [1][2] - The Dividend Low Volatility ETF Taikang closely tracks the CSI Dividend Low Volatility Index, which selects 50 securities based on liquidity, continuous dividends, moderate dividend payout ratios, positive growth in earnings per share, and low volatility [2] - The ETF has experienced a substantial increase in shares, with a growth of 28 million shares in the past two weeks, and has attracted a total of 32.97 million yuan in inflows over the last ten trading days [1] Group 2 - The current market environment has led to a shift in investment strategies, with a focus on a "barbell strategy" that combines high-dividend defensive assets with high-growth sectors, reflecting a unique resilience in the market [1] - There is a noted divergence in market performance, with the banking sector reaching new highs while cyclical sectors like coal have adjusted, indicating a shift in the market's demand for high-dividend assets towards sustainability of earnings [2]

Group 1 - The "barbell allocation strategy" is gaining popularity among funds, focusing on both high-dividend defensive assets and high-growth sectors, showcasing resilience in the current market environment [2][3] - Over the past decade, the A-share market has experienced multiple barbell allocation trends, characterized by a focus on high dividends and low volatility on one end, and high growth on the other, adapting to economic cycles and industry trends [2] - In 2024, the barbell strategy is showing a new feature of "contraction at both ends," with the banking sector outperforming as a defensive anchor and a shift towards smaller tech stocks in the growth segment [2] Group 2 - In Q2 of this year, actively managed equity funds have also adopted a barbell structure, with a shift towards theme-based growth and large-cap value stocks [3] - The barbell allocation strategy remains favored by many institutions, recommending a mix of low-valuation, high-dividend blue-chip stocks for stability and high-growth sectors like AI and robotics for capturing structural opportunities [3] - Four investment opportunities are highlighted: stable cash flow and high-dividend sectors like telecommunications and finance, AI commercialization in the internet sector, growth in the biopharmaceutical industry, and potential recovery in the real estate chain [4]

Core Viewpoint - Ningbo Bank's mid-year report shows a revenue growth rate of 7.9% and a profit growth rate of 8.2%, both improving by over 2% compared to Q1 2025, indicating a stable and positive overall performance [3] Financial Performance - Revenue and profit growth rates have improved quarter-on-quarter, with core Tier 1 capital also showing a quarter-on-quarter improvement [3] - The non-performing loan ratio remains stable, reflecting a solid financial position [3] - The bank has reversed the downward trend in provisions and the phenomenon of profit growth lagging behind revenue growth [3] Fund Performance - As of July 24, 2025, the Ping An SSE Dividend Low Volatility Index A Fund has seen a net inflow of 4.618 billion yuan over three of the last five trading days, averaging a daily net inflow of 924 million yuan [3] - The fund's financing net purchases reached 1.13 billion yuan in the past week, with a latest financing balance of 78.049 billion yuan [3] - The fund's trading congestion level is at 20.98%, lower than 79.02% historically, indicating less trading activity [3] Historical Returns - The Ping An SSE Dividend Low Volatility Index A Fund has a maximum monthly return of 11.16% since inception and an average monthly return of 3.98% [4] - The fund has a one-year Sharpe ratio of 1.15, ranking it in the top half among comparable funds [4] - The maximum drawdown for the fund this year is 5.35%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.44% [4] Fund Management - The fund was established on April 23, 2024, and aims to minimize tracking deviation and error against its benchmark [5] - The current fund managers, Qian Jing and Bai Guiyao, have achieved a return of 14.96% since the fund's inception [5] - The fund's top ten holdings include companies like COSCO Shipping, Chengdu Bank, and Industrial Bank, accounting for a total of 17.41% of the fund [5][7]

Core Viewpoint - The AI Fund Western Li De Hong Kong Stock Connect New Opportunities Mixed A (008861) reported a profit of 53.96 thousand yuan for Q2 2025, with a weighted average profit per fund share of 0.0189 yuan, and a net asset value growth rate of 3.14% during the period [2]. Fund Performance - As of July 17, the fund's unit net value was 0.658 yuan [2]. - The fund's scale reached 17.6493 million yuan as of the end of Q2 2025 [13]. - The fund's performance over various periods includes: - 3-month net value growth rate: 16.63%, ranking 129 out of 880 comparable funds [2]. - 6-month net value growth rate: 31.25%, ranking 22 out of 880 comparable funds [2]. - 1-year net value growth rate: 32.92%, ranking 124 out of 880 comparable funds [2]. - 3-year net value growth rate: -17.98%, ranking 575 out of 870 comparable funds [2]. Investment Strategy - The fund manager indicated a strategy of gradually realizing gains from technology, new energy vehicles, and consumer companies with reasonable valuations, while increasing positions in innovative pharmaceuticals with favorable policies and potential catalysts [2]. - The fund adopted a barbell strategy in the absence of a clear market direction, enhancing allocation to stable high-dividend assets [2]. Risk Metrics - The fund's 3-year Sharpe ratio was -0.0515, ranking 533 out of 874 comparable funds [7]. - The maximum drawdown over the past three years was 50.65%, ranking 97 out of 864 comparable funds, with the largest single-quarter drawdown occurring in Q1 2022 at 28.84% [9]. Portfolio Composition - The average stock position over the past three years was 81.24%, slightly above the comparable average of 80.33% [12]. - The fund's top ten holdings as of Q2 2025 included Tencent Holdings, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing, Alibaba-W, Kingdee International, China Mobile, HSBC Holdings, Xpeng Inc.-W, 3SBio, AIA Group, and BeiGene [16].

Group 1: ETF Market Performance - Approximately 10% of over 1200 ETFs in the market saw gains, with power-related ETFs leading the charge, accounting for 8 out of the top 10 gainers [1] - The Power ETF (159611) topped the market with a 2.02% increase, and all 55 component stocks rose, including Huayin Power and YN Energy, which hit the daily limit [1] - As of July 4, the overall net inflow of funds into ETFs was about 1.36 billion yuan, with significant outflows from broad-based ETFs exceeding 6 billion yuan in the past week [1] Group 2: Sector-Specific ETF Trends - Innovation drug-related ETFs experienced a pullback, with 9 out of the top 10 decliners being in this category, some dropping over 2% [3] - The Huatai Baichuan Innovation Drug ETF (517120) fell by 2.21% after a previous week of over 5% gains, indicating volatility in this sector [4] - Funds favored Hong Kong technology-focused ETFs, with significant net inflows, particularly the Hong Kong Internet ETF (159792), which saw over 2 billion yuan in net inflow in the past week [6][7] Group 3: New ETF Launches - On July 7, 17 new ETFs were launched, including the first batch of 10 Sci-Tech Bond ETFs, which saw strong initial sales [11] - The Sci-Tech Bond ETFs are designed for institutional investors seeking exposure to technology innovation assets and for individual investors looking for stable returns [11]

Core Viewpoint - A significant number of active equity funds are experiencing a performance turnaround, with over 180 funds reaching new historical net asset value highs as of June 25, driven by market uptrends and favorable external factors [1][2]. Group 1: Performance of Active Equity Funds - Over 180 active equity funds have achieved historical net asset value highs, with more than half of these funds established for over a year, and some for nearly 14 years [1][2]. - The fund with the highest increase is Jin Yuan Shun An Yuan Qi, which has risen over 450% since its inception in November 2017, primarily investing in small-cap stocks [2][3]. - Other notable funds include Guangfa Multi-Factor and Dacheng Jingheng, with increases of over 340% and nearly 300% respectively, focusing on quantitative investment strategies [2][3]. Group 2: Market Trends and Investment Strategies - Approximately 80% of active equity funds have seen positive performance this year, with around 1,100 funds increasing by over 10%, particularly those focused on Hong Kong stocks, pharmaceuticals, and technology [3][4]. - The highest-performing fund this year is Huatai-PB Hong Kong Advantage Selection, which has increased by over 90%, primarily investing in the Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector [4]. - Three main investment directions have gained consensus among institutions: innovative pharmaceuticals, technology, and dividend stocks, with a preference for a "barbell" strategy that balances aggressive and defensive investments [4][5]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Recommendations - Fund managers suggest focusing on high-potential international pharmaceutical companies and stable dividend assets, especially in a declining interest rate environment [5][6]. - The AI sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, with significant growth in AI applications and user engagement noted [6][7]. - Overall, there is optimism for the A-share market, with recommendations to prioritize stable dividend returns and sectors with strong industrial and policy catalysts [7].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a pullback after a strong performance, with over 3,600 stocks declining, raising questions about future market direction and asset allocation strategies [2][5]. Market Performance - A-shares saw a significant drop after reaching new highs, with a total trading volume of 1.58 trillion yuan, while sectors like military, tourism, and banking showed resilience [4][5]. - The Hong Kong stock market also faced volatility, with Cathay Securities International's stock fluctuating from a 90% increase to a 4% decrease [6][9]. Influencing Factors - Geopolitical tensions, particularly concerning Iran, and the triggering of the weak-side convertibility guarantee for the Hong Kong dollar contributed to market caution [9][10]. - Analysts believe that the impact of the Hong Kong dollar's situation on the market is relatively limited, as the fundamentals of the Chinese economy remain strong [11]. Future Outlook - Analysts expect a potential upward trend in the A-share market, driven by the resilience of the domestic economy and the undervaluation of Chinese assets, which may attract foreign investment [5][11]. - The upcoming earnings reports in July are anticipated to be a critical point for market performance, with a focus on sectors that show signs of recovery [11]. Investment Strategies - Two main investment themes are highlighted: 1. Financial sectors like banks and insurance, which offer stability and high dividends, are seen as attractive for short-term and long-term investments [15]. 2. Sectors with strong growth potential, such as rare earths, precious metals, and machinery, are also recommended for investment [15]. - A "barbell strategy" is suggested for navigating market volatility, combining stable dividend stocks with sectors poised for recovery [16]. Conclusion - The current market environment is characterized as a "slow bull" phase, where investors are encouraged to remain patient and strategically allocate assets to capitalize on future opportunities [16][18].