核心资产定价权南移

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定价权“南移”重构中国资产估值坐标,A+H龙头企业价值如何演变?
格隆汇APP· 2025-07-08 09:43
Core Viewpoint - The trend of A-share companies listing in Hong Kong (A+H) has intensified, particularly since 2024, with significant companies like Midea Group, SF Express, and CATL leading this wave, injecting vitality and opportunities into the Hong Kong market while reflecting a profound shift in the pricing power of core Chinese assets towards Hong Kong [1][3][33] Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - The total fundraising amounts and market capitalizations of key companies listed in Hong Kong show varying performance, with Midea Group raising 31.04 billion HKD and a market cap of 580.4 billion HKD, while CATL raised 35.66 billion HKD with a market cap of 1.41 trillion HKD, indicating a strong market response [2] - The Hang Seng-Hushen Connect AH Share Premium Index has declined for two consecutive years, with a drop of over 9% this year, suggesting that H-shares are outperforming A-shares [4] - In 2024, net inflows from southbound trading exceeded 800 billion HKD, marking a historical high, with southbound trading volume surpassing 50% of the total trading volume of the Hang Seng Index for the first time [7] Group 2: Valuation and Pricing Power - The systematic shift of pricing power towards the Hong Kong market indicates that it has become a key battleground for the valuation of core assets [3][8] - The core assets are concentrated in three main areas: AI technology, new consumption revolution, and innovative pharmaceuticals, with significant improvements in asset quality [8] - The valuation of leading companies like SF Express is expected to rise, benefiting from the "southward pricing" trend, which is anticipated to enhance the overall valuation framework of the A-share market [22][30] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - SF Express has demonstrated strong market competitiveness and growth potential, with a projected net profit of 10.17 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23.51% [8][26] - The company's investment in R&D is set to reach 3.09 billion CNY in 2024, leveraging advanced technologies to enhance operational efficiency and customer experience [26] - SF Express's business model is diversified across multiple logistics sectors, which strengthens its market adaptability and revenue stability [26][30] Group 4: Future Outlook - The increasing number of leading companies listing in Hong Kong is expected to marginally enhance the pricing power of core assets, which will also influence the A-share market [22] - The trend of institutional investors gaining a larger share in both Hong Kong and A-share markets suggests a shift towards core assets, with a potential for A-shares to align more closely with global valuation standards [21][22] - The ongoing capital flow and the "southward pricing" trend are likely to create a favorable environment for the valuation of technology growth stocks and blue-chip stocks in the A-share market [22][30]