顺丰控股 (002352. SZ) 物流 聚焦直营强化竞争优势,融合再生拓展成长空间 -顺丰控股首次覆盖深度报告 证券研究报告/公司深度报告 2025 年 08 月 25 日 | 评级: | 买入(首次) | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 分析师:杜冲 | | 营业收入(百万元) | 258.409 | 284.420 | 312,488 | 339,269 | 370,375 | | | | 增长率 yoy% | -3% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 9% | | 执业证书编号: S0740522040001 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 8.234 | 10.170 | 11,863 | 14.006 | 16.221 | | | | 增长率 yoy% | 33% | 24% | 17% | 18% | 16% | | Email: duchong@zts.com.cn | | ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確 性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示概不就因本公告全部或任何部分內容所產生或因 依賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 S.F. Holding Co., Ltd. 順豐控股股份有限公司 上述資料未經審計，與定期報告資料可能存在差異，僅供投資者參考。相關資 料以公司定期報告為準。 股東及潛在投資者於買賣本公司證券時應注意投資風險並審慎行事。 承董事會命 （於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司） （股份代號：6936） 2 025 年 7 月快遞物流業務經營簡報 根據《深圳證券交易所上市公司自律監管指引第3號 — 行業信息披露》的規定， 順豐控股股份有限公司（以下簡稱「公司」或「本公司」）現披露2025年7月業務經 營簡報情況如下： | 項目 | | 2025年7月 | 2024年7月 | 同比變動 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. | 速運物流業務 | | | | | | 營業收入 （人民幣億元） | 186.57 | 162.28 | 14.97% | | | （億票） －業 ...

Core Viewpoint - SF Holding's stock closed at 48.15 yuan, with a rolling PE ratio of 23.23 times, and a total market capitalization of 243.769 billion yuan, indicating a stable position within the logistics industry [1] Company Summary - SF Holding's main business is comprehensive express logistics services, including time-sensitive express, economy express, freight, cold chain, pharmaceutical delivery, same-city instant delivery, international express, international freight and agency, and supply chain [1] - In the first quarter of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 69.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.90%, and a net profit of 2.234 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.87%, with a sales gross margin of 13.30% [1] Industry Summary - The average PE ratio for the logistics industry is 25.36 times, with a median of 28.91 times, placing SF Holding at the 30th position in the industry ranking [2] - The company has received multiple international awards and national-level case certifications in logistics technology for 2024 and is the only Chinese representative to reach the finals of the 2025 Franz Edelman Award, the highest award in global operations and management science [1]

Core Viewpoint - The trend of A-share companies listing in Hong Kong (A+H) has intensified, particularly since 2024, with significant companies like Midea Group, SF Express, and CATL leading this wave, injecting vitality and opportunities into the Hong Kong market while reflecting a profound shift in the pricing power of core Chinese assets towards Hong Kong [1][3][33] Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - The total fundraising amounts and market capitalizations of key companies listed in Hong Kong show varying performance, with Midea Group raising 31.04 billion HKD and a market cap of 580.4 billion HKD, while CATL raised 35.66 billion HKD with a market cap of 1.41 trillion HKD, indicating a strong market response [2] - The Hang Seng-Hushen Connect AH Share Premium Index has declined for two consecutive years, with a drop of over 9% this year, suggesting that H-shares are outperforming A-shares [4] - In 2024, net inflows from southbound trading exceeded 800 billion HKD, marking a historical high, with southbound trading volume surpassing 50% of the total trading volume of the Hang Seng Index for the first time [7] Group 2: Valuation and Pricing Power - The systematic shift of pricing power towards the Hong Kong market indicates that it has become a key battleground for the valuation of core assets [3][8] - The core assets are concentrated in three main areas: AI technology, new consumption revolution, and innovative pharmaceuticals, with significant improvements in asset quality [8] - The valuation of leading companies like SF Express is expected to rise, benefiting from the "southward pricing" trend, which is anticipated to enhance the overall valuation framework of the A-share market [22][30] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - SF Express has demonstrated strong market competitiveness and growth potential, with a projected net profit of 10.17 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23.51% [8][26] - The company's investment in R&D is set to reach 3.09 billion CNY in 2024, leveraging advanced technologies to enhance operational efficiency and customer experience [26] - SF Express's business model is diversified across multiple logistics sectors, which strengthens its market adaptability and revenue stability [26][30] Group 4: Future Outlook - The increasing number of leading companies listing in Hong Kong is expected to marginally enhance the pricing power of core assets, which will also influence the A-share market [22] - The trend of institutional investors gaining a larger share in both Hong Kong and A-share markets suggests a shift towards core assets, with a potential for A-shares to align more closely with global valuation standards [21][22] - The ongoing capital flow and the "southward pricing" trend are likely to create a favorable environment for the valuation of technology growth stocks and blue-chip stocks in the A-share market [22][30]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the performance and market position of SF Holding, indicating a decline in stock price and a comparison of its PE ratio with industry averages [1][2] - As of July 2, SF Holding's stock closed at 48.27 yuan, down 1.89%, with a rolling PE ratio of 22.97 times and a total market capitalization of 240.997 billion yuan [1] - In terms of capital flow, on July 2, SF Holding experienced a net outflow of 88.5187 million yuan, with a total outflow of 42.2472 million yuan over the past five days [1] Group 2 - SF Holding's main business is comprehensive express logistics services, including time-sensitive express, economy express, freight, cold chain, medical delivery, same-city instant delivery, international express, international freight and agency, and supply chain [1] - The company achieved a revenue of 69.850 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.90%, and a net profit of 2.234 billion yuan, up 16.87%, with a gross profit margin of 13.30% [1] - In 2024, SF Holding received multiple international awards and national-level case certifications in logistics technology, and it was the only Chinese representative to reach the global finals of the Franz Edelman Award in 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - SF Holding's stock closed at 49.15 yuan, down 2.27%, with a rolling PE ratio of 23.39 times and a total market value of 245.39 billion yuan [1] Company Summary - SF Holding specializes in comprehensive express logistics services, including time-sensitive express, economy express, freight, cold chain, pharmaceutical delivery, same-city instant delivery, international express, international freight and agency, and supply chain services [1] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 69.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.90%, and a net profit of 2.23 billion yuan, up 16.87%, with a gross profit margin of 13.30% [1] Industry Summary - The average PE ratio for the logistics industry is 25.14 times, with a median of 26.82 times, placing SF Holding at 31st in the industry ranking [1][2] - The company has received multiple international awards and national-level case certifications in logistics technology and is the only Chinese representative to reach the finals of the 2025 Franz Edelman Award [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 25.113 billion for May 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.34% in its express logistics and supply chain businesses [2]. Group 1: Express Logistics Business - The revenue from the express logistics business increased by 13.36% year-on-year, with a business volume growth of 31.76%, attributed to the implementation of activation strategies and increased incentives for frontline operations [2]. - The early promotional period of major e-commerce platforms during the 618 sales event contributed to the increased demand for deliveries in May [2]. Group 2: Supply Chain and International Business - The revenue from international freight forwarding was impacted by fluctuations in international trade relations; however, the company leveraged its global network and diversified business layout to adapt to market changes [2]. - The company actively explored new demands, which supported steady growth in its supply chain and international business segments [2].

Core Viewpoint - SF Express reported strong financial results for 2024, with revenue of 284.4 billion and net profit of 10.2 billion, indicating a positive response from investors [3][4]. Group 1: Business Segments - SF Express operates three main business segments: Express and Large Items, Supply Chain and International, and Same-City Instant Delivery [7]. - The Express and Large Items segment generated revenue of 186.9 billion in 2023, accounting for 72.3% of total revenue, and is projected to reach 200.2 billion in 2024 [8]. - The Supply Chain and International segment reported revenue of 62.86 billion in 2023, representing 24.3% of total revenue, with expectations to grow to 74 billion in 2024 [10]. - The Same-City Instant Delivery segment had revenue of 7.37 billion in 2023, making up 2.85% of total revenue, and is anticipated to increase to 9 billion in 2024 [12]. - In 2024, SF Express expects a total revenue increase of 26 billion, with contributions from each segment being 51% from Express, 42.8% from Supply Chain, and 6.3% from Same-City [14]. Group 2: Revenue Growth and Challenges - The growth of the Express segment is slowing, with an average annual growth rate of 7.3% from 2021 to 2024, and a projected revenue of 122.2 billion in 2024, reflecting a 5.8% increase [16]. - The Supply Chain and International segment is contributing significantly to revenue growth but at the cost of profitability, with a gross profit margin dropping to 6.6% in 2024 [40]. - The Same-City Instant Delivery segment has shown persistent losses, with a gross loss rate of 62.9% in 2024, indicating challenges in achieving profitability despite revenue growth [43][45]. Group 3: Market Position and Strategy - SF Express has shifted its focus from maintaining a 10% market share to prioritizing profitability, as evidenced by a decline in market share to 7.6% in 2024 [28][30]. - The company has adopted a "price protection" strategy, moving away from "price for volume" tactics, which has resulted in a gross profit margin of 93.5% in 2024 [34][35]. - The Express segment is becoming the sole profit source for SF Express, with net profit contributions exceeding 100% in 2024 [39][46].

Core Viewpoint - SF Express reported strong financial results for 2024, with revenue of 284.4 billion and net profit of 10.2 billion, showing year-on-year growth of 11.4% and 23.5% respectively, leading to a positive market reaction with a 2.57% increase in stock price [1][2]. Group 1: Business Segments - SF Express operates through three main segments: Express and Large Items, Supply Chain and International, and Same-City Instant Delivery [4]. - The Express and Large Items segment generated revenue of 186.9 billion in 2023, accounting for 72.3% of total revenue, and is projected to reach 200.2 billion in 2024, representing 70.4% of total revenue [5]. - The Supply Chain and International segment reported revenue of 628.6 billion in 2023, contributing 24.3% to total revenue, with an expected increase to 740 billion in 2024, making up 26% of total revenue [7]. - The Same-City Instant Delivery segment had revenue of 73.7 billion in 2023, representing 2.85% of total revenue, and is anticipated to grow to 90 billion in 2024, accounting for 3.2% of total revenue [9]. Group 2: Revenue Growth Contributions - In 2024, SF Express's revenue is expected to grow by 26 billion, with contributions from various segments: Express and Large Items (51%), Supply Chain and International (42.8%), and Same-City Instant Delivery (6.3%) [11]. - The Express segment's revenue growth is primarily driven by the core express delivery service, which is projected to reach 1.222 trillion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 5.8% [14]. - The Supply Chain and International segment is expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth, but at the cost of profit margins, with a projected net loss of 1.32 billion in 2024 [32]. Group 3: Market Position and Strategy - SF Express has shifted its strategy from "volume over price" to "price preservation," focusing on maintaining profit margins rather than increasing market share [25][29]. - The company has seen a decline in market share, with a reported 7.6% in 2024, down 1.4 percentage points from the previous year [23]. - The competitive landscape has led to a decrease in the average price per shipment, with the overall market price dropping to approximately 8 yuan per shipment in 2024 [22]. Group 4: Profitability and Financial Health - The Express segment has become the sole profit source for SF Express, with net profit margins improving to 5.5% in 2024 [29]. - The Supply Chain and International segment has faced challenges, with a significant drop in profit margins and a net loss of 1.32 billion in 2024 [32]. - The Same-City Instant Delivery segment continues to struggle with high costs and low profitability, showing a loss rate of 62.9% in 2024 [35].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of major express delivery companies in China shows growth in revenue and net profit for 2024, but a divergence in Q1 2025 results, indicating varying strategies and market conditions among the companies [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - SF Express (顺丰控股) achieved a total revenue of 284.42 billion yuan in 2024, 1.7 times that of its competitors, with a net profit surpassing 10 billion yuan for the first time at 10.17 billion yuan [2]. - YTO Express (圆通速递) ranked second with a revenue of 69.03 billion yuan and a net profit of 4.01 billion yuan, while Yunda Express (韵达股份) and Shentong Express (申通快递) followed with revenues of 48.54 billion yuan and 47.17 billion yuan, and net profits of 1.91 billion yuan and 1.04 billion yuan respectively [2]. - In Q1 2025, SF Express continued to lead with a revenue of 69.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.9%, and a net profit of 2.33 billion yuan, up 16.87% [2]. Group 2: Competitive Dynamics - YTO Express maintained a high profit level in Q1 2025 with a revenue of 17.06 billion yuan, a 10.58% increase, but its net profit decreased by 9.15% to 857 million yuan [3]. - Shentong Express reported a significant net profit growth of 24.04% to 236 million yuan, driven by a low base effect and increased business volume [3][6]. - Yunda Express faced a decline in net profit by 22.15% to 321 million yuan, indicating a disconnect between revenue growth and profitability [3]. Group 3: Cost and Efficiency - YTO Express led in single-package net profit with 0.16 yuan, outperforming Yunda Express at 0.07 yuan and Shentong Express at 0.04 yuan, attributed to its digital management [4]. - In 2024, YTO Express's single-package transportation cost was 0.42 yuan, down 9.41%, and its operational efficiency improved significantly due to automation and technology [5]. - Shentong Express's business volume grew by 29.83% to 22.73 billion packages in 2024, but its net profit margin remained low at under 2%, highlighting ongoing challenges in profitability despite volume growth [7].