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【中国广核(003816.SZ)】政策利好叠加新项目投产,2026年业绩及估值提升均值得期待——2025年报点评(殷中枢/宋黎超)
光大证券研究· 2026-03-29 23:05
Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for 2025, with a revenue of 75.697 billion yuan, down 4.11% year-on-year, and a net profit of 9.765 billion yuan, down 9.9% year-on-year. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.086 yuan per share, with a payout ratio of 44.47% and a corresponding dividend yield of 1.85% based on the stock price as of March 27, 2026 [4]. Group 1 - In 2025, the company's controlled power generation and grid-connected electricity were 194.738 billion kWh and 183.498 billion kWh, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 2.06% and 2.51%. The main contributors to the power generation increase were Fangchenggang Nuclear Power Station and Daya Bay Nuclear Power Station, with generation volumes of 32.953 billion kWh and 16.544 billion kWh, respectively, up 8.02% and 11.31% year-on-year [5]. - The company's grid-connected electricity price (including tax) was 0.380 yuan per kWh, down 8.8% year-on-year, primarily due to an increase in the proportion of market-based trading and a decrease in market trading prices. Consequently, the nuclear power generation revenue for 2025 was 61.757 billion yuan, down 6.33% year-on-year [5]. - The operating cost of the power generation business for 2025 was 38.602 billion yuan, up 3.81% year-on-year, with a corresponding cost per kWh of 0.210 yuan, an increase of 0.003 yuan per kWh. The costs for nuclear fuel, depreciation, fuel disposal, and operation and maintenance were 9.657 billion yuan, 11.729 billion yuan, 4.378 billion yuan, and 12.839 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 1.4%, 0.57%, 7.85%, and 7.51% [6]. Group 2 - The company's joint venture, Hongyanhe Nuclear Power, achieved revenue of 15.811 billion yuan in 2025, with a grid-connected electricity price (excluding tax) of 0.322 yuan per kWh, contributing 1.576 billion yuan in investment income. Recently, Liaoning Province introduced a nuclear power pricing mechanism for 2026, which is expected to enhance the investment returns from the Hongyanhe nuclear units [7]. - The average mechanism electricity price for the Hongyanhe units is set at 0.3798 yuan per kWh (including tax), equivalent to 0.3361 yuan per kWh (excluding tax). This pricing mechanism is anticipated to improve the overall grid-connected electricity price for the Hongyanhe nuclear power units, thereby increasing the company's investment income. Additionally, Units 1 and 2 of Huizhou are expected to be operational in 2026, contributing to the company's performance growth for that year [7].