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中国核电:2024年年报及2025年一季报点评:所得税影响24年业绩,Q1核电业绩符合预期-20250430
Minsheng Securities· 2025-04-30 03:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for China Nuclear Power (601985.SH) with a target price of 9.33 CNY, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [6][12]. Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is reported at 77.272 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 3.09%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 17.38% to 8.777 billion CNY. The basic earnings per share (EPS) is 0.463 CNY [1][5]. - The increase in income tax expenses significantly impacted the Q4 2024 performance, while the decline in profits from the renewable energy sector affected the growth rate in Q1 2025 [2]. - The company achieved a total power generation of 2,163.49 billion kWh in 2024, with nuclear power generation at 1,831.22 billion kWh, a decrease of 1.80%. However, renewable energy generation saw substantial growth, with solar power increasing by 44.81% and wind power by 39.02% [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 20.273 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, and a net profit of 3.137 billion CNY, up 2.55% [1][2]. - The company plans to achieve a total power generation target of 2,370 billion kWh in 2025, with nuclear power expected to contribute 1,954 billion kWh, a 6.7% increase year-on-year [3]. Growth Potential - The company has 26 operational nuclear units with a total installed capacity of 24.962 million kW and 17 units under construction or awaiting approval, totaling 19.429 million kW. The approval of additional projects is expected to further enhance capacity [4]. - The dividend payout ratio reached a record high of 41.8% in 2024, with potential for future increases to 80% during mature phases without significant capital expenditures [4]. Profit Forecast - The profit forecasts for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 10.328 billion CNY, 11.136 billion CNY, and 12.376 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.50 CNY, 0.54 CNY, and 0.60 CNY [4][5].
中国核电(601985):2024年年报及2025年一季报点评:所得税影响24年业绩,Q1核电业绩符合预期
Minsheng Securities· 2025-04-30 03:03
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for China Nuclear Power (601985.SH) with a target price based on a PE ratio of 19/17/16 for the years 2025/2026/2027 respectively [6][4]. Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is reported at 77.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.09%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 17.38% to 8.78 billion yuan. The basic earnings per share (EPS) is 0.463 yuan [1][4]. - The increase in income tax expenses significantly impacted the Q4 2024 performance, while the decline in profits from the new energy sector affected the growth rate in Q1 2025 [2][4]. - The company achieved a total power generation of 216.35 billion kWh in 2024, with nuclear power generation at 183.12 billion kWh, a decrease of 1.80%. However, renewable energy saw significant growth, with solar power generation increasing by 44.81% [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 20.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, and a net profit of 3.14 billion yuan, up 2.55% [1][2]. - The total power generation for Q1 2025 was 59.74 billion kWh, a 16.93% increase year-on-year, with nuclear power contributing 49.48 billion kWh, a 13.30% increase [3][4]. Growth Prospects - The company plans to achieve a total power generation target of 237 billion kWh for 2025, with nuclear power expected to generate 195.4 billion kWh, a 6.7% increase year-on-year [3][4]. - The company has 26 operational nuclear units with a capacity of 24.96 million kW and 17 units under construction or awaiting approval, with a total capacity of 19.43 million kW [4]. Dividend Policy - The dividend payout ratio for 2024 reached a record high of 41.8%, with potential increases in future payout ratios as the company matures and capital expenditures decrease [4].