检测服务估值溢价
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检测服务估值溢价探源:“长坡厚雪”的定价逻 2] 辑
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-24 06:06
Investment Rating - The report indicates that the detection service industry is a typical "long slope, thick snow" track, suggesting a high investment rating due to the long-term stable growth of free cash flow from leading companies [4][19]. Core Insights - The high valuation of leading companies in the detection service industry reflects their ability to generate stable and sustainable free cash flow over a long duration, which is discounted to present value [7][19]. - The detection service industry is characterized by perpetual growth attributes, with leading companies forming a competitive moat due to their first-mover advantages [8][40]. - The global market size for the detection service industry has exceeded 2 trillion RMB and continues to grow rapidly, driven by economic development and industrial upgrades [8][40]. Summary by Sections Introduction: Why Does the Detection Service Have "Valuation Premium"? - The ability to create free cash flow is linked to a company's profit growth capability (g) and profit quality (ROE). Higher profit and cash flow generation capabilities warrant higher valuations [7][19]. Characteristics of the Detection Service Industry: Perpetual Growth Attributes - The industry has a large market space and can sustain growth, driven by mandatory legal requirements, foundational support for commercial activities, and inherent needs of the public [8][40]. - The return on equity (ROE) is stable due to high barriers to entry, including brand credibility, laboratory networks, and qualification thresholds [8][51]. Review of International Leaders: SGS's Performance Over Two Decades - SGS has demonstrated a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.7% in revenue and 9.4% in net profit from 2001 to 2024, with free cash flow CAGR at 8.2%, indicating its stability as an industry benchmark [9][63]. - The company is expected to achieve organic revenue growth of 5%-7% until 2027, with an anticipated increase in operating profit margin by at least 1.5 percentage points [9][63]. Domestic Review: Expectations for Huace and Guangdian's ROE Recovery - Huace Testing is expected to see a recovery in ROE as it shifts from a revenue-oriented strategy to a profit-oriented one, with anticipated improvements in valuation [10][11]. - Guangdian Measurement's stock price volatility is closely tied to its performance, with a new management team focusing on high-end manufacturing and technology R&D, leading to rapid ROE and net profit recovery [11].