联合研究丨行业深度 [Table_Title] 检测服务估值溢价探源："长坡厚雪"的定价逻 辑 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 检测服务行业是典型的"长坡厚雪"赛道，龙头公司的高估值本质上是其长久期持续稳定增长 的自由现金流在当前贴现的体现。本篇报告我们从估值定价原理、检测行业的成长性和壁垒、 国际龙头 SGS 的复盘、国内龙头的回顾几个维度来做深度阐述。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 徐科 赵智勇 贾少波 SAC：S0490517090001 SAC：S0490517110001 SAC：S0490520070003 SFC：BUV415 SFC：BRP550 曹小敏 SAC：S0490521050001 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 32 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table_Title 检测服务估值溢价探源："长坡厚雪"的定价逻 2] 辑 [Table_Summary2] 引言：检测服务为何拥有"估值溢价"？ SGS 能够在超过 20 年的时间里 ...

优异现金流与财务体质：自由现金流充沛，净现金储备高、负债可控，能支撑 AI 与云的持续投入，同 时兼顾股东回报，符合巴菲特对 "印钞机" 的偏好。充沛的自由现金流可用于再投资、回购、分红，是 巴菲特最看重的财务指标之一。 估值与安全边际：同期 PE 显著低于同梯队科技巨头，市场对其 AI 与云的价值定价不足， 合理估值与 稳健财务， 提供了可接受的买入价格与下行保护，符合 "不亏钱" 的核心原则。 AI 与云的成长期权：搜索 / 广告为基本盘，AI 赋能广告精准度与转化，谷歌云高速增长，TPU 与大模 型形成技术闭环，打开长期增长空间。AI 与云为长期增长主线，与巴菲特 "长坡厚雪" 的投资理念一 致。 弥补历史遗憾与组合优化：巴菲特与芒格曾公开表示错过谷歌是重大失误，此次建仓是对科技龙头的补 位，也优化了组合结构。 最近投资界的一则重大新闻，2025Q3 伯克希尔买入约 1785 万股谷歌，市值约 43 亿美元，跻身前十大 重仓，为当季最大新增持仓。 曾经视科技股为仇寇的巴菲特为什么突然投资谷歌了呢，是价值投资干不下去改路子了？ 非也。其实巴菲特还是那个巴菲特，投资的底层逻辑没有改变一点点，只不过世界在变， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of the real estate market in China, highlighting the shift from a focus on property transactions to an emphasis on service quality and consumer experience in the context of a changing economic cycle [2][3][15]. Group 1: Market Trends - The logic behind the continuous rise in housing prices over the past 20 years has changed, leading to a weakened financial attribute of real estate and a return to its fundamental purpose of housing [2]. - As of March 2025, over 40% of new homes in various cities will have a sales cycle exceeding 18 months, with Shanghai's second-hand housing cycle at 18.4 months [2]. - The average household in China now owns 1.03 residential properties, indicating a shift to a buyer's market and a change in the demographic of homebuyers, primarily consisting of younger generations [6][7]. Group 2: Service Evolution - Beike's "True Guarantee" service system was launched to enhance the transaction experience by covering key aspects such as real listings, payment security, commission refunds, privacy protection, and quality compensation [2][3][15]. - The transition from "True Listings" to "True Guarantee" reflects a broader change in consumer demands within the housing market, emphasizing the importance of service quality [3][4][15]. - Beike's service commitments include a "3+3" model, which guarantees real listings, commission refunds for unsuccessful transactions, and coverage for property debts, among other assurances [7][11]. Group 3: Company Strategy - Beike aims to establish itself as a "one-stop new housing service platform," moving beyond just verifying property information to providing comprehensive transaction support [15][16]. - The company has accumulated a total of 5.56 billion yuan in compensation payments since 2001, demonstrating its commitment to service quality and consumer trust [11]. - In the first half of the year, Beike reported a 26% year-on-year increase in second-hand housing transactions, with these transactions making up 76% of its total trading volume [11]. Group 4: Challenges and Innovations - Issues such as water leakage, which accounts for 10% of customer complaints, highlight the complexities of second-hand housing transactions and the need for improved service standards [12]. - Beike has implemented a "leakage information inspection and disclosure" service standard to address these challenges, showcasing its proactive approach to service improvement [12]. - The company has developed an AI-based risk identification and intervention system to enhance payment security, addressing the 5% of transactions that do not utilize escrow payment methods [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of selecting the right industry and job to increase income, introducing key concepts from the book "Awaken, Salaryman" [3][5]. Group 1: Choosing the Right Industry - Three key terms for selecting an industry are "long slope," "thick snow," and "dividend" [6]. - "Long slope" indicates that the industry has a long lifespan and a high ceiling, benefiting all participants [7][8]. - "Thick snow" refers to industries with high profits, where companies either have high gross margins or can mobilize significant resources [13][14]. - "Dividend" signifies that the industry is in a period of rapid growth, characterized by high overall income and profit growth, large-scale hiring, and high salaries for new graduates [20][22]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Income Levels - Income levels within the same industry depend on several factors [28]. - Supply and demand dynamics affect salary premiums during high growth periods, while mature industries may see salary stagnation [30]. - Creating unique value within the industry enhances competitive advantage and attracts employers [31]. - Industry influence, such as networking and successful case studies, is crucial for professionals in fields like law, medicine, and finance [33]. - Building a compounding model in work can lead to easier and more efficient income growth over time [35][42]. Group 3: Summary and Conclusion - Many individuals may find themselves in a chosen industry due to "sunk costs," making it challenging to switch careers [44][45]. - The article raises the question of whether it is possible to enhance income without changing industries or job directions [47].

Core Insights - The healthcare industry must deepen the integration of medical insurance and services, leveraging technology for innovative service delivery to build a competitive moat in the face of evolving demands and an aging population [1][15] - Ping An Health has established a comprehensive medical insurance collaborative ecosystem that covers the entire health cycle, distinguishing itself from competitors who remain at a superficial level of resource integration [1][4] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Ping An Health reported revenues of 10.62 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.8%, and an adjusted net profit of 580 million yuan, marking growth in both revenue and profit [2][4] - For the full year of 2024, Ping An Health achieved total revenue of 48.08 billion yuan and a net profit of 880 million yuan, with an adjusted net profit of 1.58 billion yuan [4] Business Model and Strategy - The company operates a three-in-one deep collaborative ecosystem of "insurance protection + medical services + health management," effectively managing the entire health journey from prevention to post-operative care [1][4] - Ping An Health has developed three business models: "insurance + medical membership," "medical claims collaboration," and "health rights services," enhancing synergy with various financial services [7][8] Customer Engagement and Growth - As of March 2025, nearly 63% of Ping An's 245 million personal customers enjoy services from the healthcare ecosystem, with an average of 3.37 contracts per customer and an average AUM of 61,200 yuan, significantly higher than those without access to these services [6] - The company has expanded its customer base rapidly, with a 43% year-on-year increase in revenue from both individual and corporate health services [5] Aging Population and Market Opportunity - By the end of 2024, China's population aged 60 and above reached 310.31 million, accounting for 22.0% of the total population, highlighting the urgent need for enhanced elderly care services [10] - Ping An Health is addressing the gap in financial services for the elderly by developing a comprehensive "insurance + home care" model, focusing on the core needs of the elderly [13] Performance of Elderly Care Services - The elderly care service segment has transitioned from an investment phase to a value realization phase, with revenues reaching 282.7 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 413.5% [14] - As of Q1 2025, the number of users benefiting from home care services grew by 15% compared to the end of 2024 [14]