1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, cotton prices may fluctuate upwards. The US cotton export demand is strong, while the domestic market has increasing supply pressure and relatively slow de - stocking of finished products, but there is still support from rigid demand during the traditional small peak season [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price is 15,385 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; cotton futures top 20 net positions are - 181,789 lots, up 97 lots; main contract holdings of cotton are 515,084 lots, down 16,089 lots; cotton warehouse receipt quantity is 12,435 lots, up 1 lot; China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 16,823 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan [2] - Cotton yarn main contract closing price is 21,515 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions are - 655 lots, up 268 lots; main contract holdings of cotton yarn are 8,255 lots, down 1,249 lots; cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity is 220 lots, down 2 lots; China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 22,280 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,489 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty) is 14,279 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2] - The arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 22,609 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count) is 24,035 yuan/ton, up 48 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.54 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The price difference between cotton and cotton yarn is 5,457 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the industrial inventory of cotton nationwide is 894,000 tons, up 33,000 tons [2] - The monthly import volume of cotton is 170,000 tons, down 40,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 130,000 tons, down 30,000 tons [2] - The profit of imported cotton is 2,544 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the commercial inventory of cotton nationwide is 5.477 million tons, down 311,700 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The inventory days of yarn are 21.45 days, down 0.26 days; the inventory days of grey cloth are 33.24 days, up 0.11 days [2] - The monthly output of cloth is 3.01 billion meters, up 0.2 billion meters; the monthly output of yarn is 2.132 million tons, up 93,000 tons [2] - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 11,061,465.19 thousand US dollars, down 2,748,526.81 thousand US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 11,382,891.7 thousand US dollars, down 2,808,585.3 thousand US dollars [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton is 14.36%, down 0.57%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton is 14.36%, down 0.57% [2] - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 10.15%, down 0.03%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 14.45%, unchanged [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of March 24, 2026, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton were 120,118 lots, a decrease of 8,327 lots from the previous week; the non - commercial short positions were 97,851 lots, a decrease of 14,369 lots from the previous week; the net positions were 22,267 lots, an increase of 6,042 lots from the previous week [2] - In the week ending March 19, the net export sales of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season increased by 202,400 bales, a 3% increase from the previous week and a 5% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks. The export shipment volume was 100,600 bales, a 46% increase from the previous week and a 43% increase from the average of the previous four weeks [2] 3.8 Domestic Market Situation - On the supply side, foreign cotton continues to arrive at ports, market trading is light, inventory increases significantly, and supply continues to put pressure. As of March 26, the inventory at major imported cotton ports increased by 1.75009% week - on - week, with a total inventory of 582,000 tons [2] - On the consumption side, textile enterprises have few new orders, mostly shipping previous orders, and the de - stocking speed of finished products is relatively slow. The开机 rate in Xinjiang remains stable, above 90%. As of March 26, the operating load of textile enterprises in mainstream areas is 78.5%, a 0.13% decrease from last week. The downstream is still in the traditional small peak season, and there is still support from rigid demand [2]