热点追踪 （2025年10月9日） 研究咨询部 每日涨跌幅及资金变化 棉纱 沪锡 国际铜 棕榈油 对二甲苯苹果 沪镍 尿素 烧碱 玻璃 硅铁 锰硅 沪铝中证菜油500期货 沪铜 甲醇 花生 纤维板 LPG 沪深300期货 聚丙烯 PVC 乙二醇 PTA 线材短纤郑棉 上证50红枣期货20号胶 原油纯碱 纸浆 粳米 豆一丁二烯橡胶 焦煤 沪金 生猪 塑料 玉米工业硅 苯乙烯 氧化铝 10螺纹钢 碳酸锂 年期国债期货 热轧卷板 30 焦炭中证年期国债期货 1000 豆二铁矿石沪铅期货 沪银 豆油 玉米淀粉 2年期国债期货 菜粕 橡胶 沥青 集运指数 5年期国债期货 豆粕(欧线不锈钢 白糖) 鸡蛋 低硫燃料油 沪锌 燃油 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 涨跌幅（%） 品种每日涨跌幅及资金变化 期货风险莫测，务请谨慎从事 资 金 流 向 （ % ） 每日资金变化 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 棉纱 沪锡 国际铜 棕榈油 对二甲苯 沪镍 苹果 玻璃 烧碱 尿素 锰硅 沪铜 中证500期货 沪铝 硅铁 菜油 甲醇 纤 ...

国信证券研报称，短期来看，9月以来的上涨动能虽有所释放，但美联储宽松周期的延续、地缘政治风 险的常态化以及市场投资需求的持续流入，仍将推动金价维持高位震荡偏强的格局。长期而言，全球货 币信用体系重构、去美元化趋势、各国央行持续购金以及供需结构性失衡等因素构成了黄金上涨的核心 支撑，这一支撑体系在未来2-3年内难以发生根本性改变，因此黄金的长期上涨趋势仍将延续。 徽商期货研报认为，短期内美国政府"停摆"危机持续发酵，使得市场在判断经济走向以及美联储政策路 径时面临的难度显著增大，进而导致市场风险加剧，投资避险情绪高涨。除此之外，美国经济的不确定 性不断增加，这使得市场对美联储降息的预期有所升温，实际利率也趋于下行。鉴于宏观经济增长放 缓、货币政策宽松以及地缘局势等诸多因素的支撑，贵金属价格长期内维持偏多的思路。 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 严晓菲）10月9日日间盘，国内商品期货主力合约涨跌互现，其中沪金主力 合约强势领涨。 截至15:00收盘，沪金、国际铜、沪铜等涨超4%，豆油、沪镍、沪银等涨超2%，沪锌、沪铝、红枣等涨 超1%，铁矿石、棉纱、白糖等微涨。跌幅方面，生猪、液化石油气跌超5%，鸡蛋跌超4%，尿素跌超 ...

、+** 棉花周报|2025-10-09 国庆期间籽棉价格持稳运行，下游需求维持偏弱格局 关注四季度宏观政策，短期棉价或承压运行 摘要： 截至 10月07日 CRB 大宗商品价格指数小幅上涨，10月 07日收盘报 301.07 点，较 09 月 26 日累计下跌 3.96 点。09 月 30 日文华商品指数报 162.02，较 09 月 26 日下跌 1.78，跌幅为 1.09%。09 月 30 日，ICE 期棉主力 12 月合约报 64.39 美分/磅，较 09 月 26 日下跌 1.94 美分/磅，跌幅为 2.9%。截至 09 月 30 日当周郑棉主力 01 合约收盘报 13215 元/吨，较 09 月 26 日下跌 190 元/吨， 持仓累计增加 635 手，至 53.5 万手。 国庆假期前郑棉主力合约延续阴跌走势连续是个交易日收于阴线，价格最 低触及 13155 元/吨。本年度棉花丰产，农户对于籽棉的价格预期偏低，国庆 期价收购价格相对稳定，按照籽棉 6.1 元/公斤，棉籽 2.13 元/公斤，核算皮 棉成本大致在 14300 元/吨，考虑基差等因素与盘面价格依然有小幅倒挂。当 前处于收购前期，盘面实 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overseas: The global cotton market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. With the OECD lowering the global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 2.9%, trade frictions and inflation continue to suppress cotton consumption. The U.S. cotton harvest lags behind previous years, while Brazil's harvest is nearly complete and Pakistan's new - cotton listing has increased significantly. Given the macro - economic downturn and short - term supply increase, international cotton prices may continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term [40]. - Domestic: The domestic cotton market is approaching a seasonal supply peak, and prices face significant downward pressure around the National Day. New cotton picking has started, but farmers are waiting and watching. The futures market has led to a decline in expected purchase prices. With the expected concentrated listing and weak consumption, domestic cotton prices may face further correction pressure [40]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Cotton Price and Spread - The weekly average price of international cotton spot increased, and the spread between domestic and international cotton prices continued to narrow. The weekly average price of China's CC Index3128B was 15,292 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 16 yuan/ton. The spread between the Cotlook A 1% tariff converted into RMB and the CC Index3128B narrowed by 132 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [7]. 3.2 Global Cotton Supply and Demand (USDA) - **Global**: The expected total global cotton production in the current year is 25.622 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 230,000 tons (0.9%); consumption is expected to be 25.872 million tons, an increase of 184,000 tons (0.7%); imports are 9.516 million tons, an increase of 27,000 tons (0.3%); exports are 9.515 million tons, an increase of 25,000 tons (0.3%); the global ending inventory is 15.925 million tons, a decrease of 168,000 tons (1.0%) [9]. - **US**: In 2025/26, the U.S. cotton planting area is 56.427 million mu, an increase of 115,000 mu; the harvested area is 44.729 million mu, an increase of 79,000 mu; the abandonment rate is 20.7%, with little change. The yield per unit is expected to be 64.3 kg/mu, a slight decrease; the production is expected to be 2.879 million tons, an increase of 2,000 tons. Consumption is expected to be 370,000 tons, and exports are expected to be 2.613 million tons, with little change. The ending inventory remains at 784,000 tons [12]. - **China**: The expected production is 7.076 million tons, an increase of 218,000 tons (3.2%); consumption is expected to be 8.382 million tons, an increase of 217,000 tons (2.7%); imports are expected to be 1.132 million tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons (1.9%). Considering the decrease in initial supply, the ending inventory decreases by 229,000 tons to 7.396 million tons [14]. 3.3 Growth and Harvest Progress - **US**: As of September 21, the U.S. cotton boll - opening rate was 60%, 2 percentage points behind last year and 1 percentage point ahead of the five - year average. The picking progress was 12%, 1 percentage point behind last year and at the same level as the five - year average. In Texas, the boll - opening rate was 53%, 1 percentage point behind last year and at the same level as the five - year average, and the picking progress was 23%, 2 percentage points behind last year and 1 percentage point ahead of the five - year average [18]. - **China**: As of September 25, the national new cotton picking progress was only 1.5%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points year - on - year, still in the initial stage [40]. 3.4 Climate Conditions - **US**: The precipitation in the U.S. was relatively low. As of September 16, the drought - affected area accounted for 40.8% of the total area, an increase of 4.9 percentage points from the previous week. In Texas, the drought - affected area accounted for 20.7%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points from the previous week [21]. - **China**: From September 30 to October 5, Xinjiang was affected by cold air, with rain, snow, and strong winds in some areas, which may have an adverse impact on cotton harvesting [22]. 3.5 Import and Inventory - **Import**: In August 2025, China's cotton imports were 70,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons (40.0%) and a year - on - year decrease of 80,000 tons (51.6%). From January to August 2025, the cumulative imports were 590,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 72.6%. In the 2024/25 season, the cumulative imports were 1.08 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 66.9% [24]. - **Inventory**: As of September 2025, China's domestic commercial cotton inventory was 1.1759 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 305,800 tons, at a historically low level. The industrial inventory was 862,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30,200 tons, at a historically high level [26][30]. 3.6 Export Sign - ups and Shipments (US) - As of September 18, 2025, the U.S. had cumulatively signed 947,000 tons of cotton for export in the 2025/26 season, accounting for 36.22% of the expected annual exports, and had shipped 220,000 tons, with a shipment rate of 23.23%. China had cumulatively signed 17,000 tons, accounting for 1.77% of the signed volume, and had shipped 2,000 tons, accounting for 11.76% of the signed volume [28]. 3.7 Downstream Market - **Yarn**: The spot price of cotton yarn decreased slightly. Downstream traders and weaving factories replenished stocks for the National Day and subsequent demand, and the sales of cotton yarn were good. Some spinning enterprises had normal holidays during the National Day, while some extended their holidays. The opening rates of yarn mills in different regions were basically stable [34]. - **Retail**: In August 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 3.9668 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% and a month - on - month increase of 2.29%. The retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles were 104.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.1% and a month - on - month increase of 8.74% [37].

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Views - In Q4 2025, the cotton market faces significant pressure, but the long - term outlook is not pessimistic. The international market will remain weak in the short - term, while the domestic market, Zhengzhou cotton, will face seasonal supply pressure. However, in the long - run, the prospects for both markets are more positive [1][105]. - For the international market, short - term supply pressure is high due to harvests and slow US cotton export sign - ups. But long - term, cost support and potential changes in trade policies are favorable. For the domestic market, the large expected Xinjiang cotton production in Q4 2025 will test downstream demand, and there is a risk of the price breaking below 13,000 yuan/ton, but there are also factors supporting a rebound [105][106]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Q3 2025 Cotton Market Review - **Domestic Market**: Cotton prices first rose and then fell, shifting from trading the "tight reality" to the "loose expectation". In July, prices rose due to low commercial inventories and market sentiment. From late July to August, prices fluctuated due to hedging pressure. In September, prices declined as the expectation of increased Xinjiang cotton production grew [4]. - **International Market**: It remained weak in the low - level range of 65 - 70 cents/pound. Normal weather during the US cotton growing season and slow export sign - ups due to trade policies led to limited upward movement [5]. 2. Domestic Fundamental Analysis - **Inventory Situation**: As of the end of August, national commercial cotton inventories were 1.4817 million tons, a significant decrease. Xinjiang and inland commercial inventories were at multi - year lows. However, cotton textile enterprises had relatively high industrial inventories, which could meet needs until mid - October when new cotton is expected to be available in large quantities. There were reports of inventory shortages in some inland textile enterprises and a prominent shortage of high - quality cotton [12]. - **New Cotton Yield Estimation**: Domestic institutions expect significant increases in Xinjiang and national cotton production in the 2025/2026 season. The report estimates that Xinjiang's cotton production is likely to reach around 7.5 million tons. If so, the supply of about 8.4 million tons (including import quotas) can basically cover demand. The high - yield expectation has already led to a significant decline in the futures price, and attention should be paid to the actual yield [17][18][19]. - **New Cotton Purchase Expectations**: Ginning mills are cautious about new cotton purchases, with most expecting an opening price below 6.3 yuan/kg. Cotton farmers' psychological price is around 6.3 - 6.5 yuan/kg, and their reluctance to sell has weakened. The pre - sale price of cottonseed is expected to decline to 2.1 - 2.2 yuan/kg during the peak purchase period, still higher than last year. The large pre - sale volume of Xinjiang cotton and high pre - sale basis still exist. There is a possibility of a negative feedback loop between the futures price and the seed cotton purchase price, with the purchase price potentially dropping below 6 yuan/kg, corresponding to the futures price possibly breaking below 13,000 yuan/ton [25][26]. - **Import Situation**: In the 2024/2025 season, cotton imports were 1.05 million tons, a 68% year - on - year decrease.棉纱 imports were 1.41 million tons, a 15.6% year - on - year decrease. In the 2025/2026 season, the import volume of cotton and棉纱 is uncertain, depending on trade negotiations. If the current tariff level between China and the US remains, it will continue to suppress imports [29]. - **Downstream Market**: The downstream textile industry had a lackluster peak season, with low profits for spinning enterprises. Although the profit margin improved in September, it remained low overall. Orders improved seasonally in August but were still weaker than in previous years. The inventory structure of downstream棉纱 was healthy, with continued inventory reduction in September. The load of downstream textile enterprises increased seasonally but was still lower than in previous years [33][40]. - **Terminal Textile and Apparel Market**: In August, textile and apparel exports declined year - on - year and month - on - month. From January to August, cumulative exports decreased slightly. However, China's textile and apparel exports showed resilience, with exports to the Belt and Road countries and the European Union playing important roles. Exports to the US declined significantly. Domestic demand for textile and apparel showed mild growth in the first eight months of 2025, but the growth rate was still relatively low, and the recovery of domestic demand was slow [50][52][66]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The 2024/2025 season had a supply - demand gap of about 600,000 - 700,000 tons. The 2025/2026 season may be a balanced or inventory - accumulating year. The large expected production will test downstream demand in Q4 2025, but the pressure may ease later [69]. - **Future Xinjiang Cotton Production**: There is uncertainty about whether Xinjiang's cotton planting area and production will continue to increase next year. Policy adjustments may occur, and the report believes that production may slightly decline next year due to factors such as possible reduced farmer income and government regulation [73]. 3. International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Situation**: The USDA September report maintained the previous forecast for US cotton supply and demand in the 2025/2026 season, with a tight - balance situation. As of September 21, the US cotton boll opening and harvesting progress was slightly behind last year but in line with the five - year average. Hurricane threats were low, and the weather was favorable for later growth and harvest. US cotton new - crop export sign - ups were slow, and the export demand may remain weak due to trade policy uncertainties [80][84][91]. - **Global Supply - Demand**: The 2025/2026 global cotton supply - demand pattern is relatively balanced. The USDA September report adjusted the supply and demand estimates, narrowing the supply - demand gap. The global market is facing seasonal supply pressure, and future focus will be on trade policies and demand prospects [95]. 4. Market Outlook - **International Market**: In Q4 2025, the international market will remain weak, with the price likely to test the 65 - cent support level. However, in the long - term, the outlook is not pessimistic, as there is cost support and potential positive changes in trade policies [105]. - **Domestic Market**: In Q4 2025, Zhengzhou cotton faces seasonal supply pressure, with a risk of breaking below 13,000 yuan/ton. But after the release of negative factors, downstream restocking may support the price. The long - term outlook is cautiously optimistic [106]. 5. Strategy - Short - and medium - term, it is advisable to sell on rebounds. In the long - term, wait for opportunities to buy at low levels below 13,000 yuan/ton, while closely monitoring macro - level and industrial drivers [108].

农产品日报 | 2025-09-30 增产预期不断增强，郑棉延续下跌趋势 白糖观点 策略 中性偏空。新棉增产预期持续压制盘面，叠加金九旺季不旺，需求面支撑不足，棉价仍有继续走弱的风险，至于 下方空间还有多大，关注后期收购价走势。 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 风险 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2601合约13350元/吨，较前一日变动-55元/吨，幅度-0.41%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价14942元/吨，较前一日变动-13元/吨，现货基差CF01+1592，较前一日变动+2；3128B棉全国均价14953元/吨， 较前一日变动-48元/吨，现货基差CF01+1603，较前一日变动-35。 市场分析 近期市场资讯，据海关统计数据，2025年8月我国棉纱进口量为13.20万吨，同比增加2.65万吨，增幅为25.12%；环 比增加2.5万吨，增幅为23.36%。2025年1-8月我国棉纱进口量为90.89万吨，同比减少9.99万吨，减幅为9.90%。8 月我国棉纱进口单价为2.19美元/公斤，同比下跌7.20%，环比上涨2.34%。1-8月我国棉纱进口单价为2.34美元/公斤， 同比下跌5.91%。 昨日郑棉 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on the medium to long - term for stock indices, recommend buying on dips; hold a neutral stance on treasury bonds and maintain a wait - and - see approach [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Adopt a range - trading strategy for coking coal and rebar; recommend buying on dips for glass [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Advise cautious trading before holidays for copper; suggest buying on dips after a pullback for aluminum; recommend a wait - and - see approach or shorting on rallies for nickel; adopt a range - trading strategy for tin, gold, and silver [1][11][15] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Expect PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol to trade sideways; anticipate wide - range fluctuations for polyolefins; recommend an arbitrage strategy of shorting the 01 contract and going long on the 05 contract for soda ash [1][20][22][31] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Expect cotton and cotton yarn to trade sideways; anticipate narrow - range fluctuations for PTA; expect apples to trend slightly upwards and jujubes to trend slightly downwards [1][34][36] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Recommend shorting on rallies for pigs and eggs; expect wide - range fluctuations for corn; anticipate range - bound oscillations for soybean meal; expect oils to trend slightly upwards [1][38][45] Core Views - The overall futures market presents a complex situation with different investment strategies recommended for various sectors. Positive factors such as monetary policy easing, industry growth, and technological breakthroughs support the stock index market, while uncertainties in factors like macro - policies, supply - demand relationships, and international trade impact other sectors [1][5][11] Summary by Categories Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: With the support of positive factors such as moderately loose monetary policy, stable growth in the non - ferrous metals industry, and breakthroughs in the solid - state battery field, the market was active on Monday. The A - share market has been in a sideways trend since September, showing a technology - driven structural market. In the medium term, factors like Fed rate cuts, improved Sino - US relations, and the prosperity of emerging sectors are expected to drive the market upwards. It is recommended to buy on dips [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Yields rose on Monday, and the curve steepened. The spread between policy - bank bonds and treasury bonds widened. The central bank emphasized policy implementation in the third - quarter meeting minutes, and there is uncertainty about the implementation of incremental monetary policies in the fourth quarter. It is advisable to maintain a wait - and - see approach [5] Black Building Materials - **Double - Coking Coal**: Multiple factors have boosted market sentiment, leading to a "Golden September" in the coal industry. Coal prices have risen across the board, and the procurement rhythm has accelerated. It is expected to trade sideways [7] - **Rebar**: On Monday, rebar futures prices were weak. The current valuation is low, and the demand is weak. It is necessary to focus on the demand in October. It is recommended to wait and see or engage in short - term trading before the holiday [7] - **Glass**: Last week, glass futures first declined and then rose. Spot prices increased, and inventories decreased. The demand for real - estate construction in October provides weak support, and there are positive expectations from domestic macro - news and environmental policies. It is recommended to buy on dips [9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The Grasberg mine accident has led to a long - term increase in the copper price center. In the short term, the price has fallen due to profit - taking, but it is expected to be strong. It is recommended to trade cautiously before the holiday [11][12] - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite has declined, and the production of alumina and electrolytic aluminum is stable. The demand has entered the peak season, and inventories have decreased. It is recommended to buy on dips [11][12] - **Nickel**: The price of nickel ore is firm, and the supply of refined nickel is in surplus. The price of nickel iron has limited upside, and the demand for stainless steel is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [16] - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream semiconductor and photovoltaic industries are recovering. It is recommended to trade within a range [17] - **Gold and Silver**: The market's expectation of Fed rate cuts has increased, and precious metals are expected to be supported. It is recommended to trade within a range [17][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, and the demand is weak. The export support may decline, and the overall supply - demand situation is still weak. It is expected to trade sideways in the short term [21] - **Caustic Soda**: The upstream inventory has increased, and the demand from downstream industries has increased. It is expected to trade sideways, and attention should be paid to downstream inventory replenishment and export conditions [23] - **Styrene**: The cost is under pressure, the supply is abundant, and the demand is limited. It is expected to trade weakly within a range [26] - **Rubber**: The raw material supply is expected to increase, and the market trading is light before the holiday. It is expected to trade sideways [27] - **Urea**: The supply has increased, the agricultural demand is scattered, and the inventory has accumulated. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level and arbitrage opportunities [28] - **Methanol**: The supply has recovered, the demand from the main downstream industry has increased, and the inventory has decreased. It is expected to be supported in the short term [29] - **Polyolefins**: The supply has increased, the demand has improved, and the inventory has decreased. It is expected to trade within a range, and the LP spread is expected to widen [30] - **Soda Ash**: The price has been driven up by glass, and the inventory has decreased. The output of Yuanxing's second - phase project is expected to increase, and it is recommended to adopt an arbitrage strategy [32] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply and demand situation has changed, and the current spot market is firm, but there is pressure on future prices. It is recommended to prepare for hedging [34] - **PTA**: The conflict in Russia and Ukraine has increased, and the international oil price has risen. The cost and supply - demand relationship are in a game, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly [34][35] - **Apples**: The price of early - maturing apples is firm, and it is expected to trend slightly upwards. Attention should be paid to factors such as terminal market transactions and weather [36] - **Jujubes**: The growth of jujubes in Xinjiang shows differences, and the market is currently quiet. It is expected to rebound after a decline [36] Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: The spot price is weak, and the supply is expected to increase in the short and medium terms. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [38][39] - **Eggs**: The short - term egg price is under pressure, and the long - term supply pressure is still large. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to factors such as chicken culling and environmental policies [40][41] - **Corn**: The supply of new crops is expected to ease the tight supply situation of old crops. It is recommended to take a short - term bearish view and pay attention to the listing rhythm of new crops [42][44] - **Soybean Meal**: The supply is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter, and the price is under pressure in the short term. It is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies and hold on dips [44][45] - **Oils**: The negative impact of the Argentine tariff event has ended. The palm oil inventory is expected to slow down its accumulation, and there are supply gaps in domestic rapeseed oil. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [47][50]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that both domestic and international cotton futures are weak. The ICE cotton futures are under pressure due to rising US cotton listing pressure and poor export performance, and there is technical selling pressure after breaking below 66 cents per pound. The domestic cotton market has new cotton pre - sale offers increasing, but the cotton textile industry has a general trading atmosphere, with downstream pre - holiday stocking not being prominent, and the cotton fabric market showing a weak and stable trend [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: CF2601 closed at 13,350 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.41% and a night - session close of 13,245 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.79%. CY2511 closed at 19,495 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.59% and a night - session close of 19,400 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.49%. ICE cotton 12 closed at 65.4 cents/pound with a decline of 1.40% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of CF2601 was 321,488 lots, an increase of 68,032 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 732,424 lots, a decrease of 9,125 lots. The trading volume of CY2511 was 11,882 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the open interest was 5,258 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 3,173, a decrease of 224, and the valid forecasts were 22, an increase of 10. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 0, with no change [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,627 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of South Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The 3128B index was 14,953 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The CF1 - 5 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and the spread between North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 increased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: New cotton pre - sale offers in the domestic cotton spot market continue to increase. The purchase price of machine - picked cotton seeds in Xinjiang is temporarily stable, with farmers and ginneries having a strong wait - and - see attitude. The mainstream sales basis of 41 - grade non - lightly spotted North Xinjiang double - 29 machine - picked cotton with less than 3.5% impurity is around CF01 + 1100, with higher offers ranging from 1200 - 1300, for delivery before mid - October [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The trading atmosphere in the pure cotton yarn market is general, and downstream pre - holiday stocking is not prominent. Spinning mills have suffered many losses in the early stage, and the current inventory does not pose a great pressure. Cotton yarn prices have not dropped significantly, and they are mainly sold at the prevailing price with discounts negotiated for actual orders. The price of pure cotton cloth is running weakly and stably, with the market trading atmosphere worse than before [2]. - **US Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures declined. Due to rising US cotton listing pressure and poor export performance, the ICE cotton is under pressure, and there is technical selling pressure after breaking below 66 cents per pound [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend, with the trend intensity ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The output of Xinjiang cotton is expected to increase beyond expectations this year, while ginneries have average enthusiasm for purchasing, and large - scale rush purchases are not expected. Some market expectations put the purchase price around 6.2 - 6.3 yuan/kg. As new cotton is listed in large quantities, there will be certain selling hedging pressure on the futures market. The downstream demand has slightly improved, but the improvement is limited, so the peak season this year is expected to be mediocre, and its boosting effect on the futures market is also limited [8]. - It is expected that the future trend of US cotton will mostly be volatile, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a slightly weak volatile trend. It is recommended to trade opportunistically. For arbitrage and options, it is advised to wait and see [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Information 3.1.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: For cotton futures contracts (CF01, CF05, CF09), prices decreased, with CF01 closing at 13350, down 55; for棉纱 futures contracts (CY01, CY05, CY09), CY01 closed at 19485, down 65. Trading volumes and open interest also changed. For example, the trading volume of CF01 was 245,440, an increase of 49234, and the open interest was 530,559, a decrease of 4260 [3]. - Spot: The CCIndex3128B price was 14953 yuan/ton, down 90; the Cot A price was 0.00 cents/pound, down 77.70. The prices of other spot products such as polyester staple fiber and viscose staple fiber also had corresponding changes [3]. 3.1.2 Spreads - Cotton inter - delivery spreads: The spread between January and May was - 10, down 10; the spread between May and September was - 170, up 10. - Cotton - yarn inter - delivery spreads: The spread between January and May was - 90, down 19640. - Cross - variety spreads: The spread between CY01 and CF01 was 6135, down 10. - Domestic - foreign spreads: The domestic - foreign cotton spread (1% tariff) was 1092, down 48 [3]. 3.2 Market News and Views 3.2.1 Cotton Market News - As of September 15, 2025, the cumulative new cotton listing volume in Pakistan in the 2025/26 season reached 311,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 40%. However, due to the early harvest of dry - land cotton and concentrated precipitation in July and August, the quantity and quality of later - listed cotton may be affected [6]. - As of September 27, 2025, the cotton planting area in India in the 2025/26 season was 10.999 million hectares, a year - on - year decrease of 2.7%. The planting areas in major producing areas such as Maharashtra and Gujarat decreased, while that in Telangana increased [7]. - The pre - sale quotes of new cotton in the 2025/26 season continued to increase. The mainstream sales basis of 41 - grade non - lightly spotted polluted double - 29 machine - picked cotton in northern Xinjiang with impurities within 3.5 was around CF01 + 1100, with higher quotes ranging from 1200 to 1300, for delivery before mid - October [7]. 3.2.2 Cotton Trading Logic - With new cotton gradually entering the acquisition stage, the market focus is shifting to the opening price of new cotton. The expected increase in Xinjiang cotton output and the average enthusiasm of ginneries for purchasing lead to the expectation of no large - scale rush purchases. The expected purchase price is around 6.2 - 6.3 yuan/kg. As new cotton is listed in large quantities, there will be selling hedging pressure on the futures market. The downstream demand has slightly improved, but the peak season is expected to be mediocre [8]. 3.2.3 Cotton Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is expected that the future trend of US cotton will mostly be volatile, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a slightly weak volatile trend. It is recommended to trade opportunistically. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [9]. 3.2.4 Cotton - yarn Industry News - Over the weekend, the trading atmosphere in the pure cotton - yarn market was average, with few new orders for enterprises, and downstream purchases were mainly for rigid demand. Cotton - yarn prices remained stable. As the decline in cotton prices was greater than that in yarn prices, the cash flow of enterprises improved. The peak season in September was mediocre, weaker than the same period in previous years, and market confidence was insufficient. - In the all - cotton grey fabric market in September, both volume and price lacked peak - season characteristics. Orders for grey fabric factories were average, with thick - type fabrics being the main products in production. Conventional and high - count orders were few. Export orders were average, with intense competition and extremely low profit margins [11]. 3.3 Options - The implied volatility of CF601C14000.CZC was 13.1%, and its price decreased by 33.6%. The implied volatility of CF601P13600.CZC was 12%, and its price increased by 5.7%. The implied volatility of CF601P13400.CZC was 12.3%, and its price increased by 5.1%. The 120 - day HV of cotton decreased slightly compared to the previous day [13]. - The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7310, and the PCR of trading volume was 0.7294. The trading volumes of both call and put options increased. It is recommended to wait and see for options [14][15]. 3.4 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including those showing the domestic - foreign cotton spread under 1% tariff, cotton basis for January, May, and September, the spread between CY05 and CF05, the spread between CY01 and CF01, and the spreads between different delivery months of cotton futures [18][25][26].

Report Title and Period - The report is titled "Cotton Strategy Quarterly Report: Q4 2025" [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The price of cotton is expected to decline first and then rise. In the international market, the fundamentals provide some support, but the driving force is limited, and macro - level factors may cause market sentiment to fluctuate. In the domestic market, there is short - term supply pressure during the cotton concentration listing period, but there are also positive factors, and the price of Zhengzhou cotton futures is expected to show a trend of first decline and then rise in the fourth quarter [11][12] Summary by Directory Supply - Globally in the 2025/26 season, cotton production is expected to be 25.622 million tons, a 1.3% year - on - year decrease. US cotton production is expected to be 2.879 million tons, a decrease of 259,000 tons or 8.2% year - on - year. China's cotton production is expected to be 7.076 million tons, but the domestic general expectation is between 7.2 - 7.5 million tons [6] - Affected by drought, the proportion of US cotton - growing areas is still high, and the excellent - good rate of US cotton is gradually decreasing. High - level drought - affected areas are increasing rapidly, and attention should be paid to subsequent weather disturbances [43][46] Demand - Globally in the 2025/26 season, cotton consumption is expected to be 25.873 million tons, a 0.3% year - on - year decrease [7] - In August, the monthly retail value of US clothing and clothing accessories was $27.183 billion, a 1% month - on - month increase and an 8.3% year - on - year increase [7][64] - In August, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textile products in China were 104.51 billion yuan, a 3.1% year - on - year increase, and the cumulative retail sales from January to August were 940.04 billion yuan, a 2.9% year - on - year increase [7][70] - As of the week of September 19, the comprehensive load of yarn was 50.06%, a 0.18 - percentage - point week - on - week increase; the load of pure - cotton yarn mills was 47.6%, a 0.1 - percentage - point week - on - week increase [7][72] - As of the week of September 19, the comprehensive load of staple - fiber cloth was 52.73%, a 2.31 - percentage - point week - on - week increase; the load of pure - cotton grey cloth was 50.42%, a 3.12 - percentage - point week - on - week increase [7][77] Import and Export - In August, China imported 70,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to August decreased by 1.56 million tons year - on - year; imported 130,000 tons of cotton yarn, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to August decreased by 100,000 tons year - on - year [8] - In August, the monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was $14.146 billion, a 10.08% year - on - year decrease; the cumulative export from January to August was $10.2761 billion, a 1.7% year - on - year decrease [8][84] - In August, the monthly export value of Chinese textile yarns, fabrics, and related products was $12.393 billion, a 1.43% year - on - year increase; the cumulative export from January to August was $94.513 billion, a 1.6% year - on - year increase [8][81] Inventory - As of mid - September, China's commercial cotton inventory was 1.1759 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 700,000 tons; the industrial inventory was 862,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 45,000 tons [9] - As of the week of September 19, the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 26.32 days, a 0.38 - day week - on - week decrease; the comprehensive inventory of staple - fiber cloth was 29.28 days, a 0.94 - day week - on - week decrease [9][94] - As of the week of September 19, the cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 28.7 days, a 0.65 - day week - on - week decrease; the cotton yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 27.22 days, a 0.48 - day week - on - week decrease [9][96] - As of the week of September 19, the cotton yarn inventory of weaving factories was 7.78 days, a 0.26 - day week - on - week increase; the inventory of pure - cotton grey cloth was 31.18 days, a 1.4 - day week - on - week decrease [9][98] - The speed of cotton warehouse receipt liquidation has increased. As of September 25, 2025, the total number of cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 3,595, a decrease of 3,127 compared to August 28 [106] Option - The historical volatility of cotton is gradually decreasing, and the historical volatility cone is at a moderately low level [107]