1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second quarter of 2026, Zhengzhou cotton may face risks of oscillating decline. Attention should be paid to macro - factors, downstream demand, and weather in major producing countries. In the long - term, a relatively optimistic view is held for both domestic and international cotton, and opportunities to buy long - term contracts on dips are recommended. The estimated range for Zhengzhou cotton in 2026 is 14,500 - 17,000 yuan/ton, and the estimated operating range for ICE cotton is 60 - 80 cents/pound [105][106] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In Q1 of 2026, the outer - market cotton first declined and then rebounded. The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton continued to rise to around 15,500 yuan/ton. The spread between domestic and foreign cotton remained at a high level, reaching over 4,000 yuan/ton at one point and then narrowing to over 3,000 yuan/ton [2][4][5] 3.2 Impact of Middle - East Geopolitical Conflicts on Cotton - The impacts are multi - faceted, including fiber substitution (positive), cost increase (positive), supply reduction (positive), inflation (positive), and negative impacts on industrial demand. Overall, the impact is neutral [7] 3.3 Domestic Cotton Fundamental Analysis - **Commercial Inventory**: It has entered the seasonal destocking period. As of March 15, the national commercial inventory increased slightly by 52,100 tons year - on - year, while the Xinjiang commercial inventory decreased by 129,100 tons year - on - year. Attention should be paid to the destocking speed [12] - **Industrial Inventory**: As of the end of February, the national cotton industrial inventory was at the highest level in the same period in history for nearly four months. As of March 15, the national industrial inventory decreased to 902,700 tons, a decrease of 54,600 tons compared with the same period last year [17] - **Planting Area**: The reduction of cotton planting area in Xinjiang may be less than previously expected. It is initially estimated that the planting area in 2026 will be reduced by about 3%, and the output is expected to remain above 7 million tons [21] - **Import**: The 300,000 - ton sliding - scale tariff processing trade quota has narrowed the domestic - foreign spread but it remains high. In January - February 2026, cotton imports totaled 370,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 41%, and棉纱 imports totaled 290,000 tons, an increase of about 80,000 tons year - on - year [26] - **Textile Industry**: The "Golden March" textile peak season was realized, but there may be pre - emptive demand. The new orders in late March decreased significantly. The textile enterprises' product inventory is low, but the social inventory of cotton yarn has risen to a relatively high level [33][40] - **Terminal Textile and Apparel**: In January - February 2026, the export of textile and apparel totaled 50.45 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 17.6%. The domestic retail sales of textile and apparel increased by 10.4% year - on - year, and the online retail sales of wearing goods increased by 18% year - on - year [51][55] - **Supply - Demand Balance**: In the 2025/2026 period, the supply - demand is expected to be in a tight balance. In the 2026/2027 period, the supply - demand gap is expected to widen [58][59][60] 3.4 International Cotton Fundamental Analysis - **US Cotton**: The export signing progress of old - crop cotton is still slow, but it is expected to meet the export target. The USDA's intended planting area in late March increased slightly year - on - year. The weather has a greater impact on the yield of new - crop cotton. The initial assessment of the 2026/2027 supply - demand pattern shows a slightly loose balance under normal weather conditions [67][76][85] - **Brazilian Cotton**: The planting area and output are expected to decline slightly. The 2025/2026 total output is expected to be 3.795 million tons, and the planting area is expected to be 2.0136 million hectares [88][89] - **Global Supply - Demand**: In the 2025/2026 period, the global supply - demand is in a loose balance. In the 2026/2027 period, the supply - demand is expected to tighten, but high oil prices bring great uncertainties to the demand outlook [90][99] 3.5 Market Summary and Outlook - **2026 Q2**: Zhengzhou cotton may face risks of oscillating decline. Attention should be paid to macro - factors, downstream demand, and weather in major producing countries. The outer - market may also experience oscillations, and the price center is expected to move up slightly compared with Q1 [105][108] - **Long - term**: A relatively optimistic view is held for both domestic and international cotton. The estimated range for Zhengzhou cotton in 2026 is 14,500 - 17,000 yuan/ton, and the estimated operating range for ICE cotton is 60 - 80 cents/pound [106]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton spot trading is mostly sluggish, and the spot basis is generally stable. The mainstream lower sales basis of 2025/26 southern Xinjiang Kashi machine - picked 3129/29B is CF05 + 1100 - 1200, and that of 2025/26 northern Xinjiang machine - picked 4129/29B is CF05 + 1300 - 1550 [2] - The overall quotation of pure cotton yarn is stable, and the sales are average. The trading center of some categories of a few open - end spinning enterprises has declined steadily, and individual traders have a large negotiation space for sales [2] - The ICE cotton futures rose first and then fell. The USDA's 2026 US cotton planting area intention was higher than market expectations, causing the futures to give back all gains and close slightly down 0.13% [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - CF2605 closed at 15,295 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 0.58%, and its night - session price was 15,510 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 1.41%. The trading volume was 397,954 lots, a decrease of 7,030 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 1,077,502 lots, a decrease of 10,283 lots [1] - CY2605 closed at 21,545 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.14%, and its night - session price was 21,750 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.95%. The trading volume was 9,872 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 7,465 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - ICE US cotton 5 closed at 69.98 cents/pound yesterday with a daily decline of 0.13% [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: - The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 12,420, a decrease of 15 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 489, an increase of 118 [1] - The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 219, a decrease of 1 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 78, an increase of 142 [1] - **Spot Price Data**: - The price of northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 16,554 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan from the previous day, a decline of 0.48% [1] - The price of southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 16,493 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan from the previous day, a decline of 0.48% [1] - The price in Shandong was 16,889 yuan/ton, an increase of 21 yuan from the previous day, an increase of 0.12% [1] - The price in Hebei was 16,895 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan from the previous day, an increase of 0.09% [1] - The 3128B index was 16,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 27 yuan from the previous day, an increase of 0.16% [1] - The Cotlook:A index was 80.20 cents/pound, an increase of 0.10 cents from the previous day, an increase of 0.12% [1] - The price of pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 22,280 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] - The arrival price of pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 22,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan from the previous day, a decline of 0.01% [1] - **Spread Data**: - The CF5 - 9 spread was - 135 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan from the previous day [1] - The spread between northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was 1,260 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan from the previous day [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - Domestic cotton spot trading is mostly cold, and the spot basis is generally stable. The sales basis of southern and northern Xinjiang cotton is given [2] - The overall quotation of pure cotton yarn is stable, and the sales are average. Some spinning enterprises and traders have different sales situations [2] - ICE cotton futures rose first and then fell. The USDA's 2026 US cotton planting area intention was higher than market expectations, leading to a decline [2] 3. Trend Intensity - The cotton trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting government bonds to move in a sideways pattern [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal; range trading for rebar; shorting on rebounds for glass [1][8][10] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Holding short positions moderately on rallies for copper; strengthening observation for aluminum; suggesting waiting and seeing for nickel; range trading for tin; expecting gold, silver and lithium carbonate to move in a sideways pattern [1][14][20][24] - **Energy Chemicals**: Bullish - biased sideways movement for PVC, caustic soda, styrene, polyolefin, and rubber; shorting on rallies for soda ash; range trading for urea and methanol [1][25][27][32] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Bullish - biased sideways movement for cotton and cotton yarn; expecting apples and jujubes to move in a sideways pattern [1][38][39] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Rolling short positions at high levels for the 05 and 07 contracts of live pigs; shorting cautiously on weak rebounds of near - month contracts for eggs; hedging cautiously on weak rebounds of near - month contracts for corn; paying attention to the support performance at 2900 - 2950 for the 05 contract of soybean meal; bullish - biased sideways movement and rolling long strategy for oils and fats [1][43][45][47] 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides trading suggestions and market outlooks for various futures products based on comprehensive analysis of macro - economic factors, geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost - profit conditions. It emphasizes the impact of factors such as the Middle East conflict on global markets, and suggests corresponding trading strategies according to the different characteristics of each product [1][5][15] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Expected to move in a bullish - biased sideways pattern. The willingness of the US and Iran to end the Middle East conflict has led to a sharp rise in US stocks, and stock indices may be bullish - biased [5] - **Government Bonds**: Expected to move in a sideways pattern. After the end of the quarter, the proportion of bonds in asset allocation may gradually increase [6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Expected to move in a sideways pattern. The total inventory of coking coal has slightly increased, and the inventory transfer of coking coal and coke is smooth [8][9] - **Rebar**: Expected to move in a sideways pattern. The futures price is below the electric - furnace valley - electricity cost, and the demand is still recovering [10] - **Glass**: Expected to be weak. The hype of coal cost has weakened, and the demand in the peak season is not good [11] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High - level sideways movement. Affected by macro - factors, there is a downward risk, but domestic inventory reduction and the consumption peak season will provide support [14][15] - **Aluminum**: High - level sideways movement. Supply concerns may boost the price, and attention should be paid to the development of the situation [17] - **Nickel**: Sideways movement. The support at the ore end is strong, but the lack of demand and macro - disturbances limit the upward drive [18][19] - **Tin**: Sideways movement. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream demand is in a state of rigid procurement [20] - **Silver and Gold**: Sideways movement. Affected by the Middle East situation and economic data, the medium - term price center has moved up [21][22][23] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Range - bound sideways movement. Supply and demand are both increasing, and attention should be paid to supply disturbances [24] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. Although the current supply - demand situation is weak, there are opportunities for short - term rebound and long - term industrial upgrading [25] - **Caustic Soda**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. Supported by spring maintenance and downstream replenishment, exports may increase [27] - **Styrene**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. Supported by cost and with low inventory pressure, it is expected to maintain de - stocking [28] - **Polyolefin**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. Supported by cost and with marginal improvement in supply - demand [29][30] - **Rubber**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. In the short term, it is in a game between synthetic rubber support and inventory pressure [31] - **Urea**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. Supply is at a high level, and demand is supported by agricultural and compound fertilizer needs, with smooth de - stocking [32][33] - **Methanol**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. The supply - demand situation is relatively stable, and inventory has decreased [34] - **Soda Ash**: Shorting on rallies. Supply is in excess, and the price may continue to be under pressure [35][36] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. Global cotton supply is increasing, but domestic consumption is strong, and the price of chemical fiber has a positive impact [38] - **Apples**: Sideways movement. The market is polarized, with good - quality goods being in high demand [39] - **Jujubes**: Sideways movement. The raw material acquisition in the production area is based on quality, and the enthusiasm of merchants to restock is not high [41] Agricultural and Livestock - **Live Pigs**: Bottom - building sideways movement. In the short term, the supply exceeds the demand, and in the long term, the price may rise after the supply tightens [43] - **Eggs**: Bearish - biased sideways movement. In the short term, the price increase is weak, and in the long term, it is in a state of bottom - building [45] - **Corn**: Range - bound sideways movement. The supply - demand situation is relatively balanced, and the near - month contract can be hedged on weak rebounds [47] - **Soybean Meal**: High - level sideways movement. The 05 contract should pay attention to the support at around 2900 [47] - **Oils and Fats**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. Supported by palm oil de - stocking and the B50 plan in Indonesia, but the supply will be relatively loose in the second quarter [53]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Corn prices are expected to remain strong in the short term due to tight supply, but may be suppressed by increased wheat supply and rising temperatures. In the long term, import and storage policies should be monitored [3]. - Starch prices are expected to remain volatile and strong in the short term, with downstream consumption being the key factor in the long term [3]. - The fundamentals of the international sugar market are slightly stronger, while the domestic market is affected by import policies and spot pressure [4]. - Cotton demand is expected to continue to improve, and it is suitable for long - term investment due to low inventory and potential reduction in planting area [5]. - Egg production capacity reduction has slowed down, and the market should be treated with a reverse spread pattern [8]. - The apple market is generally stable, with different trends in different regions [9]. - Pig prices have a short - term rebound, but there is still pressure on production and inventory reduction, and attention should be paid to capacity reduction [9]. Group 3: Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From March 24 to March 30, prices in various regions showed different changes. For example, the price in Changchun remained unchanged, while the price in Jinzhou decreased by 5, and the price in Weifang decreased by 8. The basis of corn increased by 18, and the trade profit decreased by 15 [2]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short term, corn prices are supported by tight supply but may be affected by wheat supply and temperature. Starch prices are affected by high - price sales and raw material supply [3]. Group 4: Sugar - **Price Data**: From March 24 to March 30, the spot prices in Liuzhou, Nanning, and Kunming remained unchanged, and the basis increased by 23 [12]. - **Market Analysis**: The international market has a slightly stronger fundamental situation, and the domestic market is affected by import policies and spot pressure [4]. Group 5: Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From March 24 to March 30, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 20, and the import profit decreased by 22 [5]. - **Market Analysis**: Low initial inventory and potential reduction in planting area, along with good demand, make cotton suitable for long - term investment [5]. Group 6: Eggs - **Price Data**: From March 24 to March 30, egg prices in various regions increased, and the basis increased by 110 [7]. - **Market Analysis**: The slowdown in chicken culling and the increase in replenishment have slowed down the production capacity reduction process, and the market should be treated with a reverse spread pattern [8]. Group 7: Apples - **Price Data**: From March 24 to March 30, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained unchanged, the national inventory decreased by 10, and the Shandong inventory increased by 104 [9][10]. - **Market Analysis**: The apple market is generally stable, with different trading situations in different regions [9]. Group 8: Pigs - **Price Data**: From March 24 to March 30, pig prices in various regions showed different changes, and the basis decreased by 90 [9]. - **Market Analysis**: Pig prices have a short - term rebound, but there is still pressure on production and inventory reduction, and attention should be paid to capacity reduction [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of Zhengzhou cotton have certain support. It is expected that the short - term trend of US cotton will be mainly oscillating and strengthening. One can consider building long positions on dips. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [6][7] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Market Information - **Futures Disk Data**: For cotton futures, the CF01 contract closed at 15930 with no change, the CF05 contract closed at 15385, down 10, and the CF09 contract closed at 15515, down 15. For棉纱 futures, the CY01 contract had no trading, the CY05 contract closed at 21515, up 80, and the CY09 contract closed at 21685, up 75 [2] - **Spot Price Data**: CCIndex3128B was 16823 yuan/ton, up 78; Cot A was 80.10 cents/pound; FC Index:M: arrival price was 78.78, up 1.20; etc [2] - **Spread Data**: In cotton inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread was 545, up 10; in 棉纱 inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread was - 21515, down 80. For cross - variety spreads, CY01 - CF01 was (15930) with no change [2] Second Part: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of March 26, 2026, the cumulative picked seed cotton converted to lint cotton was 741.0 million tons, an increase of 73.4 million tons year - on - year; the cumulative sold lint cotton was 586.3 million tons, an increase of 174.6 million tons year - on - year [4] - On March 27, 2026, the spread between domestic and foreign cotton continued to converge. The domestic cotton production increase has been confirmed, and the peak season of "Golden March and Silver April" for downstream is approaching the end. The cotton yarn market trading is okay, but spinning mills are cautious about restocking due to poor spinning profits [4] - In February 2026, Pakistan's textile and clothing export value was 1.311 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 7.22% and a month - on - month decrease of 24.59%. From January to February 2026, the total textile and clothing export value was 3.05 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.59% [5] Trading Logic - In terms of fundamentals, the supply in the current year is basically determined, but there are rumors of production cuts in the new year, which support the futures price. The current commercial inventory is lower than last year, which is bullish for cotton prices. The downstream market is operating well, and yarn prices have been raised recently. However, the market is cautious about the future [6] Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: It is expected that the short - term trend of US cotton will be mainly oscillating and strengthening. One can consider building long positions on dips for Zhengzhou cotton [7] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [7] - **Options**: Wait and see [7] Cotton Yarn Industry News - The trading of pure cotton yarn is okay, but it is weakening marginally. High - quality yarn prices are firm, while ordinary - quality yarn prices are stable or slightly decreasing. After the Tomb - sweeping Festival is an important observation point [8] - The sales of the all - cotton grey cloth market are gradually weakening. Except for home textile product orders, knitting and woven fabric orders are difficult to continue [8] Third Part: Relevant Attachments - The report provides charts such as the spread between domestic and foreign cotton prices under 1% tariff, the basis of cotton in January, May, and September, the spread between CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01, and the spread between CF9 - 1 and CF5 - 9 [10][11][15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, cotton prices may fluctuate upwards. The US cotton export demand is strong, while the domestic market has increasing supply pressure and relatively slow de - stocking of finished products, but there is still support from rigid demand during the traditional small peak season [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price is 15,385 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; cotton futures top 20 net positions are - 181,789 lots, up 97 lots; main contract holdings of cotton are 515,084 lots, down 16,089 lots; cotton warehouse receipt quantity is 12,435 lots, up 1 lot; China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 16,823 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan [2] - Cotton yarn main contract closing price is 21,515 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions are - 655 lots, up 268 lots; main contract holdings of cotton yarn are 8,255 lots, down 1,249 lots; cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity is 220 lots, down 2 lots; China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 22,280 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,489 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty) is 14,279 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2] - The arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 22,609 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count) is 24,035 yuan/ton, up 48 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.54 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The price difference between cotton and cotton yarn is 5,457 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the industrial inventory of cotton nationwide is 894,000 tons, up 33,000 tons [2] - The monthly import volume of cotton is 170,000 tons, down 40,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 130,000 tons, down 30,000 tons [2] - The profit of imported cotton is 2,544 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the commercial inventory of cotton nationwide is 5.477 million tons, down 311,700 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The inventory days of yarn are 21.45 days, down 0.26 days; the inventory days of grey cloth are 33.24 days, up 0.11 days [2] - The monthly output of cloth is 3.01 billion meters, up 0.2 billion meters; the monthly output of yarn is 2.132 million tons, up 93,000 tons [2] - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 11,061,465.19 thousand US dollars, down 2,748,526.81 thousand US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 11,382,891.7 thousand US dollars, down 2,808,585.3 thousand US dollars [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton is 14.36%, down 0.57%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton is 14.36%, down 0.57% [2] - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 10.15%, down 0.03%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 14.45%, unchanged [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of March 24, 2026, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton were 120,118 lots, a decrease of 8,327 lots from the previous week; the non - commercial short positions were 97,851 lots, a decrease of 14,369 lots from the previous week; the net positions were 22,267 lots, an increase of 6,042 lots from the previous week [2] - In the week ending March 19, the net export sales of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season increased by 202,400 bales, a 3% increase from the previous week and a 5% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks. The export shipment volume was 100,600 bales, a 46% increase from the previous week and a 43% increase from the average of the previous four weeks [2] 3.8 Domestic Market Situation - On the supply side, foreign cotton continues to arrive at ports, market trading is light, inventory increases significantly, and supply continues to put pressure. As of March 26, the inventory at major imported cotton ports increased by 1.75009% week - on - week, with a total inventory of 582,000 tons [2] - On the consumption side, textile enterprises have few new orders, mostly shipping previous orders, and the de - stocking speed of finished products is relatively slow. The开机 rate in Xinjiang remains stable, above 90%. As of March 26, the operating load of textile enterprises in mainstream areas is 78.5%, a 0.13% decrease from last week. The downstream is still in the traditional small peak season, and there is still support from rigid demand [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The domestic cotton futures market lacks new driving forces. The trend strength of cotton is rated as neutral with a score of 0 [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2605 closed at 15,395 yuan/ton yesterday with a -0.16% daily increase and 15,435 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.26% increase. CY2605 closed at 21,435 yuan/ton yesterday with a -0.95% daily increase and 21,415 yuan/ton in the night session with a -0.09% increase. ICE US Cotton 5 closed at 69.47 cents/pound with a 0.04% daily increase. The trading volume of CF2605 was 467,146 lots, an increase of 70,249 lots from the previous day, and the open - interest was 1,087,852 lots, an increase of 16,296 lots. The trading volume of CY2605 was 10,775 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open - interest was 9,504 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 12,434, a decrease of 10 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 339, unchanged from the previous day. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 222, a decrease of 5 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 78, an increase of 160 [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The price of North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 16,644 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of South Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 16,583 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price in Shandong was 16,849 yuan/ton, an increase of 88 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price in Hebei was 16,875 yuan/ton, an increase of 89 yuan/ton from the previous day. The 3128B index was 16,814 yuan/ton, an increase of 69 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Cotlook:A index was 80.10 cents/pound, an increase of 1.25 cents/pound from the previous day. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 22,280 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 22,609 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - **Spread Data**: The CF5 - 9 spread was - 135 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spread between North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was 1,250 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot Situation**: According to TTEB information, the overall basis of domestic cotton spot is stable. The mainstream negotiable basis of 2025/26 North Xinjiang machine - picked 4129/29B with impurity within 3.5 and micronaire value above 4 is mostly in the range of CF05 + 1350 - 1450, and many quotes are above 1400, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang. The mainstream basis of 2025/26 North and South Xinjiang machine - picked 3130/30 in Shandong and Henan warehouses with micronaire value above 4 and impurity within 3 is mostly in the range of CF05+1550 - 1850, and most quotes are above 1600, for self - pick - up in the inland [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises Situation**: According to TTEB information, the quotes of pure - cotton yarn are generally stable, and the market trading is dull. Recently, new orders and inquiries for regular yarn and medium - low - count yarn (including rotor - spun yarn) of textile enterprises are few, the shipment of rotor - spun yarn is weak, and some enterprises offer discounts. For combed high - count yarn, most manufacturers had full orders before, but recently some textile enterprises have spare machines [2] - **US Cotton Situation**: Last Friday, ICE cotton futures fluctuated widely during the day. In the early morning, ICE cotton continued to rise, and the May contract once reached 70.31 cents/pound, a new high this year. However, then there were profit - taking orders, and the May contract retreated to 68.88 cents/pound at most. It rebounded slightly in the late trading and finally closed at 69.47 cents/pound [2] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the range of [- 2,2], where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long term, and investors are advised to buy on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal is suitable for short - term trading; rebar is for range trading; glass is recommended to short on rebounds [1][9][10][11] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is advised to hold short positions moderately at high prices; aluminum is recommended to strengthen observation; nickel is suggested to wait and see; tin is for range trading; gold and silver are expected to trade sideways; lithium carbonate is expected to trade in a range [1][14][17][19][20][22][23][25] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, and polyolefins are expected to be bullish with sideways movement; rubber is recommended to be long on dips without chasing highs; urea and methanol are for range trading; soda ash is advised to short at high prices [1][26][28][29][31][32][34][35][37] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be bullish with sideways movement; apples and red dates are expected to trade sideways [1][39][40][41] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: For live pigs, contracts 05 and 07 have limited rebound, and short - selling at high levels is recommended; for eggs, be cautious about chasing up near - month contracts; corn is expected to trade in a short - term range; soybean meal contract 05 should focus on the support performance at 2900 - 2950; for oils and fats, reduce long positions gradually [1][43][45][46][47][48] 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical situation, especially the Iran - US conflict, has a significant impact on the global financial and commodity markets, causing price fluctuations in various assets [5][15][17][22][23] - Different industries and commodities have different supply - demand relationships and price trends. For example, some commodities are affected by supply disruptions, while others are influenced by changes in demand or cost factors [9][15][25][34] - Investors should pay attention to various factors such as geopolitical events, macroeconomic data, and industry - specific policies when making investment decisions [27][35][46] 3. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Affected by the Iran - US situation, it may trade sideways in the short term but is bullish in the medium to long term. Investors are advised to buy on dips [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The short - end has limited downward movement, and the long - end spread has room for repair. Overall, it is expected to trade sideways [6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Domestic production is rising, and inventory is accumulating. It is suitable for short - term trading [9] - **Rebar**: The price is at a low static valuation, and the demand is recovering. It is expected to trade sideways in the short term [10] - **Glass**: The cost hype has weakened, and the demand is not good. It is recommended to short on rebounds [11][12] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by macro factors, it is under pressure at high levels. Although there is support from domestic consumption, it still has downward risks. Short positions can be held moderately at high prices [14][15][16] - **Aluminum**: The price is affected by the situation in the Middle East. It is recommended to wait for the market sentiment to stabilize before entering the market to buy [17] - **Nickel**: The supply and demand are complex, and the price is expected to be bullish with sideways movement. It is suggested to wait and see [19] - **Tin**: The supply is tight, and the consumption is in a recovery stage. It is recommended to trade in a range [20][21] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by the Middle East situation and economic data, they are expected to trade sideways. It is recommended to wait and see [22][23] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply and demand are both increasing, and it is expected to trade in a range [25] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, but there is support from exports. It is expected to be bullish with sideways movement [26][27] - **Caustic Soda**: Supported by export and downstream replenishment, it is expected to be bullish with sideways movement. Be cautious about chasing up [28] - **Styrene**: Supported by cost and exports, it is expected to be bullish with sideways movement. Long on dips without chasing highs [29][30] - **Polyolefins**: Supported by cost and improving supply - demand, it is expected to be bullish with sideways movement [31] - **Rubber**: Affected by cost and inventory, it is expected to be bullish with sideways movement. Long on dips without chasing highs [32] - **Urea**: The supply is high, and the demand is supported by agriculture. It is expected to be bullish with sideways movement [34] - **Methanol**: The supply and demand are in a complex situation, and it is expected to be bullish with range trading [35][36] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is excessive, and the price is under pressure. Short at high prices [37] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global supply is increasing, and the domestic demand is strong. It is expected to be bullish with sideways movement [39] - **Apples**: The market is in a two - level differentiation state, and the price is expected to trade sideways [40] - **Red Dates**: The acquisition price is stable, and the market is expected to trade sideways [41] Agricultural and Livestock - **Live Pigs**: In the short term, the supply exceeds demand, and the price is in a bottom - building stage. Contracts 05 and 07 have limited rebound, and short - selling at high levels is recommended [43][44] - **Eggs**: The price is rising steadily, but be cautious about chasing up near - month contracts [45] - **Corn**: The supply and demand are in a balanced state, and it is expected to trade in a short - term range [46] - **Soybean Meal**: Affected by multiple factors, contract 05 should focus on the support performance at 2900 - 2950 [47] - **Oils and Fats**: The price is at a high level and is expected to trade sideways. Reduce long positions gradually [48][49][50][51][52]

Report Information - Report Title: Agricultural Products Morning Report - Report Date: March 30, 2026 - Research Team: Agricultural Products Team of the Research Center 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - Corn: In the short term, the supply of corn remains tight as the grain sources gradually concentrate on traders, supporting the price. However, the increased supply of policy - based wheat and the expected increase in market circulation may suppress the price. In the long term, attention should be paid to import and domestic auction policies due to the supply gap [3]. - Starch: High prices affect starch sales, causing the price to decline. In the short term, tight raw material supply supports price increases, but weak downstream consumption may suppress the price. In the long term, downstream consumption rhythm and inventory changes are crucial for pricing [3]. - Sugar: Internationally, the fundamentals are slightly stronger with India's lower production estimate and ISO's lower global surplus forecast. Crude oil prices also impact the valuation. Domestically, the market is bullish after the festival, but there is hedging pressure [6]. - Cotton: Low initial inventory offsets most of the production increase. With expanding textile production, good downstream profits, and favorable consumption policies, cotton demand is expected to improve. A decrease in Xinjiang's planting area makes long - term buying suitable [7]. - Eggs: The slowdown in chicken culling may be due to farmers' active delay. The increase in chick - rearing in 1 - 2 months and positive sentiment in 3 - 4 months slow down capacity reduction. Rising feed costs compress profits, and an inverse spread pattern is considered [10]. - Apples: The apple market is stable, with good - quality goods being the main trading items. The demand in the western region is weak, while the demand for good - quality goods in Shandong is increasing. The sales in the sales area are normal [11]. - Pigs: The weekend pig price rebounded slightly. There is still pressure on near - term production and inventory reduction. The market is affected by high supply, and attention should be paid to capacity reduction [11]. 3. Summary by Product Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From March 23 to 27, the price in Jinzhou decreased by 10, the base difference decreased by 3, and the starch base difference increased by 10 [2]. - **Analysis**: Short - term price support comes from tight supply, but wheat supply and increased circulation may suppress the price. Starch price is affected by raw material supply and downstream consumption [3]. Sugar - **Price Data**: From March 23 to 27, the spot prices in Liuzhou, Nanning, and Kunming remained unchanged, and the base difference decreased by 1 [4][5]. - **Analysis**: Internationally, the fundamentals are stronger, and crude oil affects the valuation. Domestically, there is hedging pressure [6]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From March 23 to 27, the price of 3128 cotton increased, and the import profit and 32S spinning profit decreased [7]. - **Analysis**: Low initial inventory and good demand prospects make long - term buying suitable [7]. Eggs - **Price Data**: From March 23 to 27, the prices in various producing areas increased, and the base difference increased by 209 [9]. - **Analysis**: Slow culling, increased chick - rearing, and rising feed costs affect the market, with an inverse spread pattern considered [10]. Apples - **Price Data**: From March 23 to 27, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained unchanged, and the national, Shandong, and Shaanxi inventories decreased [11]. - **Analysis**: The market is stable, with different situations in different regions [11]. Pigs - **Price Data**: From March 23 to 27, the prices in various producing areas decreased, and the base difference decreased by 230 [11]. - **Analysis**: There is short - term price rebound, but long - term pressure from high supply, and attention should be paid to capacity reduction [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic cotton futures market showed a volatile consolidation trend, with the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton fluctuating in the range of 15,200 - 15,450 yuan/ton. The core drivers are as follows: last week, cotton import quotas were issued, and the market was worried about policy regulation due to excessive and rapid rise in cotton prices before planting; the operating rate of downstream textile enterprises rebounded, demand improved marginally, and peak - season demand was gradually released; US cotton rebounded, narrowing the domestic - foreign price difference. In the short term, the market lacks a strong driver, and Zhengzhou cotton oscillates at a high level. In the medium - to - long term, it remains optimistic under the condition of a decline in planting area. Attention should be paid to downstream demand and new cotton planting [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 US Cotton Situation - As of March 17, the drought degree and coverage index of the main US cotton - producing areas was 227, slightly down month - on - month and up 94 year - on - year; the index in Texas was 253, flat month - on - month and up 58 year - on - year. The drought level in the main US cotton - producing areas and Texas remains at a relatively high level in recent years. According to the latest weekly position report released by CFTC, as of the week of March 17, the volume of unpriced sell orders rose to 63,052 lots, while the unpriced buy orders decreased, indicating an increase in bullish sentiment in the international market. US cotton has risen significantly recently [5]. - As of the week of March 19, the weekly signing volume of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season was 45,900 tons, an increase month - on - month; the weekly shipment volume was 90,800 tons, a 46% increase month - on - month [21]. 3.2 Cotton Inventory and Consumption - As of mid - March 2026, the total commercial inventory of cotton was 5.23 million tons, a decrease of 240,000 tons from the end of February and an increase of 60,000 tons compared with the same period last year. Among them, the inventory in Xinjiang was 3.88 million tons, a decrease of 190,000 tons from the end of February and a decrease of 130,000 tons compared with the same period last year. The inventory reduction in Xinjiang is relatively fast [6]. - With the improvement of consumption, the operating rates of yarn mills and fabric mills have increased, and the inventories of finished products have decreased. As of Thursday this week, the operating loads of yarn mills and fabric mills were 58.1 and 60.8 respectively, having recovered above the levels of the same period last year; the inventories of finished products were 16.7 days and 23.6 days respectively, showing a significant decline after the Lantern Festival and currently at the lowest levels in recent years [6]. 3.3 Price and Spread - From March 19 to March 26, 2026, the price of the active contract of Zhengzhou cotton rose from 15,150 yuan/ton to 15,420 yuan/ton, an increase of 270 yuan/ton; the price of ICE active contract rose from 67.71 cents/pound to 69.44 cents/pound, an increase of 1.73 cents/pound [7]. - From March 18 to March 25, 2026, the CotlookA price index decreased from 79.35 cents/pound to 78.2 cents/pound, a decrease of 1.15 cents/pound; the price of Indian S - 6 increased from 55,800 rupees/candy to 56,100 rupees/candy, an increase of 300 rupees/candy [10]. - From March 19 to March 26, 2026, the port pick - up prices of imported yarns from India, Vietnam, and Indonesia all increased. The price of Indian C32S increased by 60 yuan/ton, the price of Vietnamese C32S increased by 60 yuan/ton, and the price of Indonesian C32S increased by 40 yuan/ton [11]. - From March 20 to March 27, 2026, the import prices of US EMOT M and Brazilian M cotton under 1% tariff and sliding - scale duty both increased. The price of US EMOT M increased by 2.10 cents/pound, with an increase of 354 yuan/ton under 1% tariff and 230 yuan/ton under sliding - scale duty; the price of Brazilian M increased by 2.10 cents/pound, with an increase of 354 yuan/ton under 1% tariff and 223 yuan/ton under sliding - scale duty [12]. - As of last Friday, the basis between the 328 cotton spot price index and the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton widened week - on - week; the basis between the C32S yarn price index and the main contract of Zhengzhou yarn also widened week - on - week [46][47]. - As of last Friday, the price difference between the domestic 328 cotton price index and the imported cotton port pick - up price index under sliding - scale duty increased week - on - week; the price difference between the C32S cotton yarn price index and the port pick - up price also increased week - on - week [50]. - As of last Friday, the price difference between the main contract of Zhengzhou yarn and the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton on the futures market widened week - on - week; the spot theoretical processing profit of 32 - count pure cotton yarn showed an increased loss week - on - week [54]. 3.4 Futures Positions and Warehouse Receipts - As of last Friday, the total of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 12,773 lots; the total of Zhengzhou yarn warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 300 lots [61].