交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年8月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：ICAC8月报：25/26年度产量2590万吨，消费2560万吨。USDA8月报：25/26年度产 量2539.2万吨，消费2568.8万吨，期末库存1609.3万吨。海关：7月纺织品服装出口267.7亿 美元，同比下降0.1%。7月份我国棉花进口5万吨，同比减少73.2%；棉纱进口11万吨，同比增 加15.38%。农村部8月25/26年度：产量625万吨，进口140万吨，消费740万吨，期末库存823 万吨。中性。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价15235，基差1115（01合约），升水期货；偏 ...

长的影响。总体来说，国内旧作供应偏紧，加上需求改善预期，有望提振短期棉花走势，中期走势受到新 研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 棉花(纱)产业日报 2025-08-25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑棉主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 14120 | 105 棉纱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 20165 | 90 | | | 棉花期货前20名净持仓(手) | -54544 | -6028 棉纱期货前20名净持仓(手) | -709 | -329 | | | 主力合约持仓量:棉花(日,手) | 504609 | 19701 主力合约持仓量:棉纱(日,手) | 22276 | 318 | | | 仓单数量:棉花(日,张) 中国棉花价格指数:CCIndex:3128B(日,元 | 7104 | -94 仓单数量:棉纱(日,张) -8 中国纱线价格指数:纯棉普梳纱32支(日, | 63 | -1 | | 现货市场 ...

20250823棉系周报： 短期去库仍存支撑 关注下游旺季表现 农产品团队 贾晖 Z000183 余德福 Z0019060 曹以康 F03133687 中辉期货有限公司交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 时间：2025年8月23日 周度综述：摘要 | 因素 | 性质 | 观点概览 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 1、中国央行15日发布的2025年第二季度中国货币政策执行报告(下称"报告")表示，把促进物价合理回升作为把握货币政策 的重要考量,推动物价保持在合理水平。 | | 宏观 | 中性偏多 | 2、据21世纪经济报道,规模高达5000亿元的新型政策性金融工具将出,重点投向新兴产业、基础设施等领域,具体包括数字 | | | | 经济、人工智能、低空经济、消费领域、绿色低碳、农业农村、交通物流、城市基础设施等，国家开发银行、中国农业发展 | | | | 银行、中国进出口银行等政策性银行参与其中。 | | | | 国际方面，近期美国棉区干旱程度略有缓解，推动优良率出现小幅回转、预计8月中旬得州仍有少量降水，8月下旬仍有少量 | | 供应 | | 降水。巴西新棉收获进度近半，为五 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Cotton (Yarn) Market Weekly Report - Cotton Fluctuates, Awaits Demand Improvement [2] - Report Date: August 22, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Xin [3] - Researcher Qualification: Futures Practitioner Qualification Number F03109641, Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Z0018457 [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2601 closed lower with a weekly decline of about 0.64%, and the cotton yarn futures 2511 contract fell 0.62% [7][20] - Domestically, cotton is in a de - stocking state, supply is tight before the new cotton is listed, and spot prices are firm. Although inland textile enterprises have no profit, there are expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" demand peak season, and the operating rate has slightly increased. The overall cotton planting area in China increased in 2025, and attention should be paid to the impact of weather on new crop growth [7] - In general, tight supply of old crops and expected demand improvement are expected to boost the short - term cotton trend, while the medium - term trend is suppressed by the expected increase in new cotton production. It is recommended to go long on dips in the short - term and control risks [7] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Analysis**: Zhengzhou cotton main 2601 contract and cotton yarn futures 2511 contract both declined this week [7][20] - **Market Outlook**: Tight supply of old crops, expected demand improvement, new crop growth affected by weather. Short - term trend positive, medium - term suppressed by new crop increase [7] - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to foreign cotton prices, macro factors, trade policies, and weather factors [7] 2. Futures and Spot Market - **US Cotton Market**: The price of the December US cotton contract fell this week with a weekly decline of about 0.19%. As of August 12, 2025, non - commercial long positions decreased by 2.66% month - on - month, non - commercial short positions increased by 1.04% month - on - month, and the net position decreased by 8.35% month - on - month [10] - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: The US current market - year cotton export sales increased by 105,400 bales, and shipments were 123,300 bales. New sales were 138,800 bales, lower than last week. As of August 18, 2025, the Cotlook:A index was 79.15 cents per pound, down 0.31% month - on - month [15] - **Futures Market**: Zhengzhou cotton main 2601 contract and cotton yarn futures 2511 contract declined. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 48,516, and in cotton yarn futures was - 380 lots. Cotton futures warehouse receipts were 7,198 lots, and cotton yarn futures warehouse receipts were 64 lots [20][26][33] - **Futures and Spot Price Difference**: The price difference between Zhengzhou cotton 1 - 5 contracts was 40 yuan/ton, and the price difference between cotton 3128B and cotton yarn C32S was 5,457 yuan/ton [35] - **Spot Market**: As of August 22, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,243 yuan/ton, and the Chinese cotton yarn spot C32S index price was 20,700 yuan/ton. As of August 19, 2025, CY index:OEC10s was 14,800 yuan/ton [41][52] - **Futures Basis**: The basis between the cotton 3128B price index and the Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract was + 1,213 yuan/ton, and the basis between the cotton yarn C32S spot price and the cotton yarn futures 2511 contract was 640 yuan/ton [47] - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of August 19, 2025, the 1% quota port pick - up price of imported cotton increased by 0.38% month - on - month, and the sliding - scale duty port pick - up price increased by 0.20% month - on - month. The port pick - up prices of imported cotton yarn C32S, C21S, and JC32S all declined slightly [59] - **Imported Cotton Cost - Profit**: As of August 19, 2025, the cost - profit of imported cotton sliding - scale duty port pick - up price (M) was 894 yuan/ton, and that of 1% quota port pick - up price was 1,650 yuan/ton [63] 3. Industry Situation - **Supply Side - Commercial Inventory**: As of July 31, 2025, the national commercial cotton inventory was 2.1898 million tons, down 22.62% month - on - month, and the industrial cotton inventory was 898,400 tons, up 1.85% month - on - month [67] - **Supply Side - Import Volume**: In July 2025, China's cotton import volume was 50,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 73.2%. From January to July, the cumulative cotton import volume was 520,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 74.2%. In July 2025, the imported cotton yarn volume was 110,000 tons, and from January to June, the cumulative imported cotton yarn volume was 780,000 tons [71] - **Mid - end Industry - Demand Side**: As of July 31, 2025, the yarn inventory days were 27.67 days, down 2.43% month - on - month, and the grey cloth inventory days were 36.14 days, down 2.95% month - on - month [75] - **Terminal Consumption - Demand Side - Export**: As of July 31, 2025, the export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 1.1604009 billion US dollars, down 3.69% month - on - month, and the export value of clothing and accessories was 1.5161759 billion US dollars, down 0.69% month - on - month [79] - **Terminal Consumption - Demand Side - Domestic Retail**: As of June 30, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing were 534.13 billion yuan, up 20.42% month - on - month, and the cumulative year - on - year was 2.5%, down 3.85% month - on - month [83] 4. Options and Stock Market - Related Market - **Options Market**: Implied volatility of at - the - money cotton options this week [84] - **Stock Market - Xinjiang Nongkai Agriculture Development Co., Ltd.**: P/E ratio trend [89]

| 农产品早报 | | --- | | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心农产品团队 2025/08/21 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | | 淀粉 | | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 | 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/08/14 | 2230 | 2270 | 2428 | 2410 | -11 | 5 | 425 | 2900 | 2980 | 207 | -31 | | 2025/08/15 | - | 2270 | 2428 | 2400 | 80 | -5 | 336 | 2900 | 2980 | 241 | -31 | | 2025/08/18 | - | 2260 | 2468 | 2400 | 83 | 5 | 306 | 2900 | 2980 | 261 | -31 | | 2025/08/19 | - | ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Daily Report - Date: August 20, 2024 - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 contract closed at 14,055, down 45; trading volume was 283,228 lots, an increase of 136,381 lots; open interest was 478,466 lots, a decrease of 10,082 lots [3] - CY01 contract closed at 20,085, down 55; trading volume was 140 lots, an increase of 15 lots; open interest was 396 lots, an increase of 24 lots [3] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B was 15,240 yuan/ton, up 6; CY IndexC32S was 20,700 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Cot A was 79.30 cents/pound, up 0.15; FCY IndexC33S was 22,045 yuan/ton, down 88 [3] Spreads - Cotton inter - month spread: 1 - 5 month spread was 15, down 5; 5 - 9 month spread was 240, down 20; 9 - 1 month spread was - 255, up 25 [3] - Yarn inter - month spread: 1 - 5 month spread was 20,085, down 55; 5 - 9 month spread was - 20,045, up 50; 9 - 1 month spread was - 40, up 5 [3] - Cross - variety spread: CY01 - CF01 was 6,030, down 10; CY05 - CF05 was - 14,040, up 40; CY09 - CF09 was 6,245, down 30 [3] - Domestic - foreign spread: 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1,300, up 41; sliding - scale domestic - foreign cotton spread was 660, up 28; domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 1,345, up 88 [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of August 16, Brazil's cotton harvest progress was 48.9% (98% of the area), a 9.9 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, 16.3% slower than last year [6] - As of August 16, 2025, India's 2025/26 cotton planting area was 10.696 million hectares, a 3.7% year - on - year decrease [6] - As of July 31, 2025, CAI's assessment of India's 2024/25 cotton balance sheet showed an increase in beginning inventory by 150,000 tons, demand by 100,000 tons, exports by 20,000 tons, and ending inventory by 30,000 tons compared to the previous month [7] Trading Logic - Macro: After recent China - US talks, tariffs are likely to be extended for 90 days, and China's anti - involution policies have a positive impact on commodities [8] - Fundamentals: Supply is tight, and the issuance of sliding - scale tariff quotas is a key factor; demand is expected to improve from the off - season to the peak season in August, but if it falls short of expectations, it will be negative for Zhengzhou cotton [8] - Overall: The short - term market is likely to be slightly bullish and volatile [8] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: US cotton is likely to be slightly bullish and volatile, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly bullish and volatile in the short term with limited upside [9] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [10] - Options: Sell put options [11] Cotton Yarn Industry News - Pure - cotton yarn market: Recent transactions are fair, spinning mills' inventory has decreased slightly, but profit margins have not improved significantly, with inland spinning mills' cash - flow losses at around 500 yuan/ton; short - term yarn prices are expected to be stable [13] - Cotton gray fabric market: Demand has not improved continuously, weaving mills' shipment speed is average, and traders' purchasing enthusiasm is low; inventory is slowly decreasing [13] Group 4: Options Option Data - On August 20, 2025, for CF601C14000.CZC, the underlying contract price was 14,055, the closing price was 363, down 7.9%, IV was 10.7%, Delta was 0.5385, etc. [15] - The 120 - day HV of cotton was 10.2651, with a slight increase from the previous day; the implied volatility of CF601 - C - 14000 was 10.7%, CF601 - P - 13600 was 10.4%, and CF601 - P - 13400 was 10.4% [15] Option Strategies - The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7956 for open interest and 0.8463 for trading volume; both call and put trading volumes increased [16] - Recommendation: Sell put options [17]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term market利多 factors for Zhengzhou cotton (郑棉) are relatively clear. It is expected that the downward space of Zhengzhou cotton is limited, and it will probably maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend. The future trend of US cotton is likely to be slightly stronger in oscillation, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend in the short term but with limited upward space [8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - **Futures Market**: For cotton futures, CF01 closed at 14100 with a decline of 25, CF05 at 14080 with a decline of 5, and CF09 at 13820 with a decline of 10. For cotton yarn futures, CY01 closed at 20140 with a decline of 25, CY05 at 20330 with no change, and CY09 at 20095 with a decline of 25. Volume and open - interest changes varied among contracts [3]. - **Spot Market**: CCIndex3128B was priced at 15243 yuan/ton with an increase of 27, Cot A at 79.15 cents/pound with a decline of 0.25. Different yarn and fiber products also had their respective price changes [3]. - **Spreads**: Cotton and cotton yarn inter - month spreads and cross - variety spreads showed different changes. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of cotton was 20 with a decline of 20, and the CY01 - CF01 spread was 6040 with no change [3]. Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News** - As of August 17, the budding rate of US cotton in 15 major cotton - growing states was 97%, 1 percentage point slower than last year and 4 percentage points faster than the five - year average. The boll - setting rate was 73%, 10 percentage points slower than last year and 7 percentage points slower than the five - year average. The boll - opening rate was 13%, 5 percentage points slower than last year and 3 percentage points slower than the five - year average. The good - quality rate was 55%, 13 percentage points higher than last year and 10 percentage points higher than the five - year average [6]. - As of the week ending August 16, the total harvesting progress of Brazilian cotton was 48.9%, an increase of 9.9 percentage points from the previous week but 16.3% slower than last year. The Brazilian National Commodity Supply Company (CONAB) slightly reduced the production forecast for the 2024/25 season to 3.935 million tons [6][7]. - **Trading Logic**: Macroscopically, after the China - US talks, tariffs are likely to be extended for 90 days, weakening the short - term tariff impact. The domestic anti - involution policy has a positive impact on commodities. Fundamentally, the cotton supply is still tight, and the key factor for supply is whether additional sliding - scale tariff quotas will be issued. In August, demand is expected to improve from the off - season to the peak season. If demand fails to meet expectations, it will have a negative impact on Zhengzhou cotton [8]. - **Trading Strategies** - **Single - side**: It is expected that the future trend of US cotton will be slightly stronger in oscillation, and Zhengzhou cotton will maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend in the short term but with limited upward space [9]. - **Arbitrage**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [10]. - **Options**: Sell put options [11]. - **Cotton Yarn Industry News** - The Zhengzhou cotton market has been oscillating recently. The overall market of pure - cotton yarn has improved but is still mediocre. There is resistance to price increases, and market confidence is average. Spinning mills focus on sales, with inland spinning mills operating at low capacity, stable overall operation, and slightly reduced inventory [13]. - The overall demand for all - cotton gray fabrics has not been fully released. Although some report an improvement compared to July, most fabric mills say sales are still slow, with few actual orders. The production enthusiasm of some local fabric mills has slightly recovered, and the operating rate has increased, but it is expected to be difficult to further recover [13]. Options - **Option Data**: The implied volatility of CF601C14000.CZC was 10.2%, CF601P13600.CZC was 10.3%, and CF601P13400.CZC was 10.3%. The 120 - day historical volatility (HV) of cotton increased slightly compared to the previous day [15]. - **Option Strategy Suggestion**: The position PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7849, and the trading volume PCR was 0.7600. Both the trading volumes of call and put options increased. The option strategy is to sell put options [16][17].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The international soybean market's supply - demand situation has improved, but there are still some pressure points. The domestic soybean market has a significant inventory accumulation pressure. For sugar, the international market is expected to enter a stock - building phase, and the domestic sugar price will follow the international trend. In the oil sector, palm oil may continue to increase production and inventory, while domestic soybean imports are decreasing, and the fundamentals of rapeseed oil are relatively stable. For corn, the external market shows a rebound trend. The pig price remains stable, and the peanut market is in a new - old alternation period. The egg market has supply pressure and general demand, and the apple market has low inventory and is in a off - season. The cotton market is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term [4][11][19][22][30][34][43][50][57]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/Meal - **External Market**: CBOT soybean index dropped 0.31% to 1053 cents/bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index rose 0.03% to 292.5 dollars/short ton [2]. - **Related Information**: As of August 17, the soybean good - excellent rate was 68%, unchanged from the previous week. The US soybean export inspection volume for the week ending August 14 was 473,605 tons. Oil World indicated that the US soybean production decline reduced market safety. As of August 15, the oil mill's actual soybean crushing volume was 2.339 million tons, with an operating rate of 65.75%. Soybean inventory decreased by 4.24% week - on - week, and soybean meal inventory increased by 1.12% week - on - week [2][3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The international soybean market's supply - demand situation has improved, but the Brazilian and Argentine soybean markets have their own characteristics. The domestic soybean market has inventory accumulation pressure [4][6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For single - side trading, a long - position thinking is recommended for soybean and rapeseed meal; for arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach; for options, buy call options [7]. Sugar - **External Market Changes**: ICE US raw sugar price dropped 1.4% to 16.24 cents/pound, and London white sugar price dropped 0.96% to 476.9 dollars/ton [8]. - **Important Information**: In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase. The US announced the sugar import tariff quota implementation rules for the 2025/26 fiscal year. Pakistan decided to import 85,000 tons of sugar [9][10]. - **Logic Analysis**: Internationally, Brazil is in the supply peak, and the global inventory is expected to increase. Domestically, the domestic sugar price will follow the international trend [11]. - **Position Suggestion**: For single - side trading, expect the Zhengzhou sugar price to be volatile in the short term, and consider short - selling at high prices; for arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach [12][13][14]. Oil Sector - **External Market**: Not provided. - **Related Information**: From August 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 0.88% month - on - month. As of August 17, the US soybean good - excellent rate was 68%. Canada's rapeseed export volume increased by 864.4% in the week ending August 10. China's palm oil imports in July decreased by 46.8% year - on - year, while soybean oil imports increased by 263% year - on - year. As of August 15, palm oil and soybean oil commercial inventories increased [17][18]. - **Logic Analysis**: Malaysia's palm oil is in the production season, and Indonesia's price provides support. Domestic soybean imports are decreasing, and the fundamentals of rapeseed oil are relatively stable [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, expect a short - term correction in oil prices and consider long - positions after the correction; for arbitrage, consider a positive spread for P1 - 5 after the correction; for options, consider selling put options or buying call options after the correction [19][21]. Corn/Corn Starch - **External Market Changes**: CBOT corn futures rebounded, with the December contract rising 0.6% to 406.5 cents/bushel [22]. - **Important Information**: The US corn main - producing areas are expected to have lower - than - normal temperatures. The US corn good - excellent rate is 71%. Brazil's corn shipment volume in August 2025 was lower than last year. The North Port's corn purchase price was stable, and the North China corn market was strong [23][24]. - **Logic Analysis**: Not provided. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider a long - position for the external December corn contract and short - selling at high prices for the January contract; for arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach [26][27][28]. Pig - **Related Information**: Pig prices remained stable across regions. Piglet and sow prices changed slightly. The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" increased, and the average pork price in the national agricultural product wholesale market increased by 0.7% [30]. - **Logic Analysis**: Not provided. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For single - side trading, consider long - positions for far - month contracts at low prices; for arbitrage, conduct an LH91 reverse spread; for options, take a wait - and - see approach [31]. Peanut - **Important Information**: During the new - old peanut alternation period, the price of old peanuts decreased, and the price of new peanuts increased. Peanut oil prices were strong, and peanut meal sales were weak. As of August 14, peanut and peanut oil inventories decreased [32][33]. - **Logic Analysis**: The peanut market is in a new - old alternation period, the import volume has decreased, and the downstream consumption is weak. The 10 - month peanut is expected to be strong in the short term but may face supply pressure due to the expected increase in planting area [34]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider short - selling the 10 - month peanut at high prices and currently take a wait - and - see approach; for arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach; for options, sell the pk510 - C - 8600 option [35][36][37]. Egg - **Important Information**: Egg prices in the main production and sales areas increased slightly, and then remained stable. In July, the national laying - hen inventory increased year - on - year. The egg sales volume in the representative sales areas increased by 1% in the week ending August 14. The production and circulation inventories decreased. The egg - farming profit was - 0.26 yuan/jin, and the egg - hen farming expected profit decreased [39][41][42]. - **Trading Logic**: The supply pressure is obvious, the demand is general, and the cold - storage eggs' release impacts the price. For the September contract, although it is a peak - season contract, the spot price increase is less than expected [43]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider short - selling at high prices; for arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach [43][45]. Apple - **Important Information**: As of August 13, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 460,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease. In June 2025, the fresh apple import volume increased year - on - year, and the export volume decreased year - on - year. The apple price was stable, and the early - maturing apple price was high [47]. - **Trading Logic**: The current inventory is low, the market is in an off - season, the new - season apple production is expected to be similar to this season, and the early - maturing apple price decline impacts the market [50]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, expect the new - season apple price to be widely volatile; for arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach; for options, take a wait - and - see approach [51][52]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **External Market Impact**: ICE US cotton price rose 0.53% to 67.84 cents/pound [53]. - **Important Information**: As of August 16, 2025, the Indian cotton planting area decreased by 3.7% year - on - year. As of August 8, the ICE cotton futures' ON - CALL data showed a decrease in the number of un - priced contracts. Brazil's 2024/25 cotton production was expected to be 3.935 million tons, a slight decrease [54][56]. - **Trading Logic**: The short - term tariff impact may weaken, and the supply is relatively tight. The demand is expected to improve in August. The short - term market has more positive factors [57]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, expect the US cotton price to be slightly stronger and the Zhengzhou cotton price to be slightly stronger in the short term with limited upward space; for arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach [58][60].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - Cotton is in a stage of oscillating downward, and the price center is expected to decline in the later stage. The overall market remains under pressure, and it is recommended to go short after rebounds [7]. Summary by Directory Domestic Supply and Demand Situation - **Supply and Demand Balance**: Since the 2021/22 season, due to the impact of the macro - economy and the pandemic, cotton consumption has been frustrated, while production has remained at a relatively high level. The domestic cotton market has shifted from destocking to inventory accumulation, and the price center has moved down. In the 2024/25 season, production was at a high level, imports decreased, and demand was relatively stable, with sufficient supply. In the 2025/26 season, production is expected to be optimistic, but demand still faces pressure, and the supply - demand situation is expected to remain loose [13]. - **New Cotton Growth**: In 2024, the cotton planting area decreased slightly, but the yield per unit was good, and the output reached a high in recent years. In 2025, the intended planting area increased, the weather in the producing areas was generally good, and there was a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. Currently, the new cotton is growing well, but attention should be paid to the weather in the producing areas [19]. - **Inventory Situation**: The 2023/24 season had sufficient cotton supply and a high carry - over inventory. At present, it is in the destocking period, with significant destocking of commercial inventory. However, industrial inventory has remained at a high level, and the overall industrial and commercial inventory is still relatively high. As of the end of July, the commercial inventory was 218.98 million tons, a decrease of 64 million tons from the previous month; the industrial inventory was 89.84 million tons, a decrease of 0.46 million tons from the previous month [23][24]. - **Import Situation**: The issue of Xinjiang cotton has affected the domestic cotton - using pattern. In 2024, the issuance of sliding - scale duty quotas was less than expected, and cotton imports showed a downward trend. In June 2025, China's cotton imports were 30,000 tons, a decrease of 25.0% from the previous month and 82.1% from the same period last year. From January to June 2025, the cumulative cotton imports were 460,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 74.3% [34][43]. Downstream Demand - **Demand Status**: Overseas interest - rate cuts are still uncertain, and the US tariff policy is also uncertain. The domestic policy is boosting the economy, but the demand recovery still needs to be tracked. Although downstream orders for gauze have improved recently, overall orders are still insufficient, the operating load is low, and the finished product inventory is high [47]. - **Retail and Export Data**: In July 2025, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and knitted textiles were 9.61 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.8% and a month - on - month decrease of 24.63%. From January to July, the cumulative retail sales were 83.11 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. In July 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 2.6766 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.06% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.01%. From January to July, China's textile and clothing exports were 17.041 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 0.63% [50]. Global Supply and Demand Situation - **Global Balance**: In the 2024/26 season, global cotton production is expected to increase, consumption will also recover significantly, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio will rise slightly. In the 2025/26 season, global cotton production is expected to decline, demand will be stable, and the ending inventory will decrease [71]. - **US Situation**: In the 2024/25 season, the planting area of US cotton increased, the harvest area increased significantly, but the yield per unit decreased due to drought, and the output increased. In the 2025/26 season, the planting area decreased, the yield per unit is expected to decline, and the output is expected to recover. US textile and clothing demand has recovered to some extent, but subsequent demand still needs to be tracked. Last week, US cotton export sales rebounded [72][73]. Spread and Basis - **Spread**: The report shows the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 spreads of cotton, and the data changes over time [100]. - **Basis**: The report presents the basis of cotton contracts 01, 05, and 09, and the data changes over time [102].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The Zhengzhou cotton main contract 2601 rose 1.77%, closing at 14,125 yuan/ton, up 245 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The international crude oil price fell weakly, which was positive for polyester, a substitute for US cotton, and negative for US cotton. The US cotton fell 0.16% overnight, closing at 67.48 cents/pound ICE. The subsequent marginal impacts of tariffs, the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm, and domestic policy trends should be monitored. Domestically, the recent destocking of cotton continued to decline, and the market was still mainly for replenishment based on rigid demand. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a volatile trend [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - The Zhengzhou cotton main contract 2601 rose 1.77%, closing at 14,125 yuan/ton, up 245 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The international crude oil price fell weakly, which was positive for polyester, a substitute for US cotton, and negative for US cotton. The US cotton fell 0.16% overnight, closing at 67.48 cents/pound ICE [1][2]. 2. Macroeconomic and Industry News - On August 18, 2025, the total cotton warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 8,011 (-67) sheets, including 7,762 (-67) registered warehouse receipts and 249 (+0) valid forecasts [3][4]. - Brazil's 2024/25 cotton exports totaled 2.83 million tons, a 5.8% increase from 2023/24, the highest export volume in the same period in history. In July 2025, Brazil exported 127,000 tons of cotton, a 24% decrease compared to July 2024 [4]. - As of August 15, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 1.8561 million tons, a decrease of 150,600 tons or 7.50% from the previous week, at a relatively low level in the same period. Xinjiang's commercial cotton was 1.1319 million tons, a decrease of 150,000 tons or 11.70% from the previous week. The commercial cotton in the inland area was 418,900 tons, an increase of 14,900 tons or 3.69% from the previous week [4]. - As of August 14, based on the estimated domestic cotton output of 6.676 million tons, the cumulative picked seed cotton converted to lint cotton was 6.676 million tons, an increase of 773,000 tons year-on-year and 583,000 tons higher than the average of the past four years. The cumulative sold seed cotton converted to lint cotton was 6.676 million tons, an increase of 773,000 tons year-on-year and 583,000 tons higher than the average of the past four years. The cumulative processed lint cotton was 6.676 million tons, an increase of 773,000 tons year-on-year and 583,000 tons higher than the average of the past four years. The cumulative sold lint cotton was 6.536 million tons, an increase of 1.097 million tons year-on-year and 1.041 million tons higher than the average of the past four years [5]. - In July 2025, China imported 50,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 150,000 tons or 73.2% year-on-year. From January to July 2025, the cumulative imported cotton was 520,000 tons, a decrease of 1.49 million tons or 74.2% year-on-year. In July 2025, China imported 110,000 tons of cotton yarn, a decrease of 20,000 tons or 16.4% year-on-year. From January to July 2025, the cumulative imported cotton yarn was 780,000 tons, a decrease of 130,000 tons or 14% year-on-year [5]. 3. Data Charts - The report provides charts on CZCE and ICE cotton futures prices, cotton spot prices and basis, 9 - 1 spread, textile profit, cotton import profit, cotton yarn import profit, warehouse receipt quantity, and non - commercial positions [6][8][11][13] 4. Analysis and Strategy - Internationally, after the "Trump - Putin meeting", there was no substantial progress in the cease - fire of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the US and Russia may need to conduct multiple consultations. The US economic data was mixed, and the consumer confidence index may have been affected by the lack of substantial progress in various negotiations. Brazil's cotton production is expected to reach a new high, and Brazilian cotton has shown strong development momentum in recent years [14]. - Domestically, the recent destocking of cotton continued to decline, and the market was still mainly for replenishment based on rigid demand. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a volatile trend [14]