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棉花:关注外部市场波动20260320
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-20 02:07
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The report presents the latest data on cotton fundamentals, including futures prices, trading volumes, positions, and spot prices. It also covers macro and industry news such as the domestic cotton spot situation, the state of domestic cotton textile enterprises, and the situation of US cotton. Overall, the report points out that the cotton market is affected by external market fluctuations, with weak US cotton export sales data impacting the ICE cotton futures price, and the domestic cotton spot market having weak trading and cautious purchasing by textile enterprises [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2605 closed at 15,150 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.39% and a night - session decline of 0.63%; CY2605 closed at 21,285 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.07% and a night - session increase of 0.49%. ICE cotton 5 closed at 67.71 cents/pound with a decline of 1.44%. The trading volume of CF2605 was 523,853 lots, a decrease of 237,183 lots from the previous day, and the position was 1,083,663 lots, a decrease of 27,526 lots. The trading volume of CY2605 was 10,269 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the position was 14,190 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 12,437, a decrease of 43, and the effective forecast was 323, an increase of 44. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 282, a decrease of 19, and the effective forecast was 67, an increase of 234 [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The price of North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 16,384 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.36%; the price of South Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 16,323 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.37%. The 3128B index was 16,722 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.04%. The Cotlook:A index was 79.35 cents/pound, an increase of 0.76% [1] - **Price Difference Data**: The CF5 - 9 price difference was - 105 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price difference between North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was 1,230 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The overall trading of domestic cotton spot was weak. Textile enterprises were worried about the continued decline of cotton prices and had a low purchasing willingness. The spot basis was generally stable, and most cotton merchants had not adjusted the basis. Different regions and varieties had different basis ranges [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The overall inquiry enthusiasm in the pure cotton yarn market slightly declined. A few spinning enterprises with relatively high previous quotations lowered their prices to promote transactions. Some spinning enterprises' orders could cover the "Golden March" period, and a few combed high - count varieties' orders could cover the "Silver April" [2] - **US Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures price declined by 1.44% due to weak US cotton weekly export sales data. As of the week of March 12, the net increase in US cotton exports in the current market year was 196,700 bales, a decrease of 22% from the previous week and 30% from the four - week average [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [5]