商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 10 日 棉花：新疆籽棉成交价格企稳 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 棉花基本面数据 | | 名 称 | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CF2601 | 元/吨 | 13,295 | 0.61% | 13380 | 0.64% | | | CY2511 | 元/吨 | 19,545 | 0.70% | 19755 | 1.07% | | | ICE美棉12 | 美分/磅 | 64.46 | -0.74% | | - | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | CF2601 | 手 | 333,284 | -79,542 | 782,576 | 37,395 | | | CY2511 | 手 | 2,815 | -1,999 | 3,221 | 1,045 | | | | | 昨日仓单量 | 较前日变动 | 有效预报 | 较前 ...

2025 年 10 月 09 日 商 品 研 究 棉花基本面数据 | | 名 称 | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CF2601 | 元/吨 | 13,215 | -1.01% | - | - | | | CY2511 | 元/吨 | 19,410 | -0.44% | - | - | | | ICE美棉12 | 美分/磅 | 64.94 | 0.78% | | - | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | CF2601 | 手 | 412,826 | 91,338 | 745,181 | 12,757 | | | CY2511 | 手 | 0 | -1,999 | 0 | 1,045 | | | | | 昨日仓单量 | 较前日变动 | 有效预报 | 较前日变动 | | | 郑棉 | 张 | 3,081 | -92 | 22 | 0 | | | 棉纱 | 张 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | | | | 价 格 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that both domestic and international cotton futures are weak. The ICE cotton futures are under pressure due to rising US cotton listing pressure and poor export performance, and there is technical selling pressure after breaking below 66 cents per pound. The domestic cotton market has new cotton pre - sale offers increasing, but the cotton textile industry has a general trading atmosphere, with downstream pre - holiday stocking not being prominent, and the cotton fabric market showing a weak and stable trend [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: CF2601 closed at 13,350 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.41% and a night - session close of 13,245 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.79%. CY2511 closed at 19,495 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.59% and a night - session close of 19,400 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.49%. ICE cotton 12 closed at 65.4 cents/pound with a decline of 1.40% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of CF2601 was 321,488 lots, an increase of 68,032 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 732,424 lots, a decrease of 9,125 lots. The trading volume of CY2511 was 11,882 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the open interest was 5,258 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 3,173, a decrease of 224, and the valid forecasts were 22, an increase of 10. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 0, with no change [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,627 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of South Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The 3128B index was 14,953 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The CF1 - 5 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and the spread between North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 increased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: New cotton pre - sale offers in the domestic cotton spot market continue to increase. The purchase price of machine - picked cotton seeds in Xinjiang is temporarily stable, with farmers and ginneries having a strong wait - and - see attitude. The mainstream sales basis of 41 - grade non - lightly spotted North Xinjiang double - 29 machine - picked cotton with less than 3.5% impurity is around CF01 + 1100, with higher offers ranging from 1200 - 1300, for delivery before mid - October [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The trading atmosphere in the pure cotton yarn market is general, and downstream pre - holiday stocking is not prominent. Spinning mills have suffered many losses in the early stage, and the current inventory does not pose a great pressure. Cotton yarn prices have not dropped significantly, and they are mainly sold at the prevailing price with discounts negotiated for actual orders. The price of pure cotton cloth is running weakly and stably, with the market trading atmosphere worse than before [2]. - **US Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures declined. Due to rising US cotton listing pressure and poor export performance, the ICE cotton is under pressure, and there is technical selling pressure after breaking below 66 cents per pound [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend, with the trend intensity ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The cotton market presents a complex situation. The spot trading of domestic cotton is sluggish with low inventory and few offers, and the spot sales basis is mostly stable. The purchase price of seed cotton is temporarily stable, but farmers are hesitant. The domestic cotton - textile enterprise market has general spot trading, with cotton yarn prices fluctuating slightly and the sales of cotton - cloth weakening. The ICE cotton futures declined due to the strengthening dollar, and the market is awaiting the US Department of Agriculture's weekly sales report data [2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2601 closed at 13,555 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.11% and a night - session closing price of 13,520 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.26%. CY2511 closed at 19,860 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.02% and a night - session closing price of 19,765 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.48%. ICE cotton futures (December contract) closed at 66.14 cents/pound with a decline of 0.71%. The trading volume and positions of CF2601 decreased, while the positions of CY2511 increased [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 3,716, a decrease of 199 compared to the previous day, and the effective forecast remained unchanged at 12. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts and effective forecasts were both 0 [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,827 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.10% compared to the previous day; the price of Nanjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,540 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.10% compared to the previous day. The prices in Shandong and Hebei decreased. The 3128B index was 15,062 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.47% compared to the previous day. The international cotton index (M:CNCottonM) was 74.21 cents/pound, an increase of 0.62% compared to the previous day. The price of pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count remained unchanged, and the arrival price increased by 0.05% [1] - **Spread Data**: The CF1 - 5 spread was 15 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 compared to the previous day's spread. The spread between Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 was 1,270 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The spot trading of domestic cotton is cold, with low inventory and few offers. The spot sales basis is mostly stable. The purchase price of seed cotton is temporarily stable, but the actual trading volume at the lower price of 6.1 - 6.2 yuan/kg is small, and farmers are observing. The price for 2024/25 Dongjiang Hami machine - picked 3129/29B with less than 3.5 impurities is mostly CF01 + 900 - 1000, with a small number of lower quotes at 850 - 900 for inland warehouse self - pick - up [2] - **Domestic Cotton - Textile Enterprises**: The spot trading atmosphere of the pure - cotton yarn market is average. The price of pure - cotton yarn fluctuates slightly in the short term, and the market is waiting for the price guidance after the new cotton is listed. The sales of the cotton - cloth market are average, and the transactions are continuously weakening. The sales of medium - and low - count yarn cards are sustainable, while the prices of regular plain and twill fabrics are under pressure. The quoted price of cotton - cloth is stable, and the actual order price is negotiated according to the quantity [2] - **US Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures declined again due to the strengthening dollar, and the market is paying attention to the US Department of Agriculture's weekly sales report data [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 9 月 24 日 棉花：关注籽棉成交价格 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 棉花基本面数据 | | 名 称 | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CF2601 CY2511 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 13,540 | -0.51% -0.08% | 13580 19765 | 0.30% | | | | | 19,660 | | | 0.53% | | | ICE美棉12 | 美分/磅 | 66.61 | 0.54% | | - | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | CF2601 | 手 | 325,107 | -104,804 | 753,685 | 16,137 | | | CY2511 | 手 | 9,857 | -1,999 | 14,281 | 1,045 | | | | | 昨日仓单量 | 较前日变动 | 有效预报 | 较前 ...

傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 2025 年 9 月 23 日 商 品 研 究 棉花：新棉上市压力令期价承压 【基本面跟踪】 棉花基本面数据 | | 名 称 | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CF2601 | 元/吨 | 13,610 | -0.80% | 13575 | -0.26% | | | CY2511 | 元/吨 | 19,675 | -0.30% | 19665 | -0.05% | | | ICE美棉12 | 美分/磅 | 66.25 | -0.08% | | - | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | CF2601 | 手 | 429,911 | 103,594 | 737,548 | 26,552 | | | CY2511 | 手 | 12,216 | -1,999 | 16,034 | 1,045 | | | | | 昨日仓单量 | 较前日变动 | 有效预 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The market is concerned about the situation of new cotton listing. The overall trading of domestic cotton spot is sluggish, with less inventory of high - quality lint. The pre - sale of some new cotton has relatively good transactions, and most of the spot sales basis is stable. The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is mediocre, weaker than the same period in previous years. The sales of all - cotton grey fabrics remain stable, with thick - type fabrics having better sales [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2601 closed at 13,885 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.18%, and 13910 yuan/ton in the night session with a night - session increase of 0.18%. CY2511 closed at 19,900 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.28%, and 20025 yuan/ton in the night session with a night - session increase of 0.63%. ICE US cotton 12 closed at 66.82 cents/pound yesterday with a daily increase of 0.09% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of CF2601 yesterday was 279,205 lots, an increase of 70,791 lots compared with the previous day, and the position was 693,565 lots, a decrease of 7,369 lots. The trading volume of CY2511 yesterday was 11,551 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the position was 21,140 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts yesterday was 4,899, a decrease of 118, and the effective forecast was 2, an increase of 2. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 89, a decrease of 1, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 90 [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,152 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan compared with the previous day, with a growth rate of 0.17%. The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,845 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan, with a growth rate of 0.17%. The price of cotton in Shandong remained unchanged at 15,282 yuan/ton. The price of cotton in Hebei was 15,215 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan, with a growth rate of 0.05%. The 3128B index was 15,249 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan, with a growth rate of 0.01%. The international cotton index M was 74.43 cents/pound, an increase of 0.23% [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The CF1 - 5 spread was 35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan compared with the previous day. The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 was 1,270 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The overall trading of cotton spot is sluggish. The inventory of high - quality lint is low, and the pre - sale of some new cotton has relatively good transactions. Most of the spot sales basis remains stable. The purchase price of seed cotton for wadding in Southern Xinjiang over the weekend has cooled down, and the current mainstream purchase price is around 7.4 - 7.45 yuan/kg, with cottonseed at 2.4 - 2.5 yuan/kg [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is mediocre, weaker than the same period in previous years. Downstream enterprises mainly make rigid - demand purchases, and spinning enterprises negotiate real orders. Recently, with the decline of cotton prices, the cash flow of spinning enterprises has slightly improved. The sales of all - cotton grey fabrics remain stable, and the current market is mainly dominated by thick - type fabrics [2]. - **US Cotton Situation**: Yesterday, ICE cotton futures continued to fluctuate in a narrow range, with relatively light market news and trading [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View The report tracks the fundamentals of cotton, including futures prices, trading volumes, positions, warehouse receipts, and spot prices. It also provides macro and industry news, indicating that the overall trading of cotton spot is sluggish, the trading of the pure - cotton yarn market is lukewarm, and ICE cotton futures are fluctuating narrowly. The trend strength of cotton is rated as neutral [1][2][4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Futures Prices**: CF2601 closed at 13,860 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.18%, and the night - session closing price was 13,900 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.29%. CY2511 closed at 19,845 yuan/ton yesterday with a decline of 0.13%, and the night - session closing price was 19,935 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.45%. ICE cotton 12 was at 66.76 cents/pound with an increase of 0.03% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of CF2601 was 208,414 lots, a decrease of 314 lots compared with the previous day, and the position was 700,934 lots, a decrease of 2,806 lots. The trading volume of CY2511 was 10,916 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the position was 21,486 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 5,017, a decrease of 142, and the effective forecast was 0. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 90, a decrease of 1, and the effective forecast was 85 [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,127 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan compared with the previous day. The price of Nanjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,820 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan. The price in Shandong was 15,282 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan. The price in Hebei was 15,208 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan. The 3128B index was 15,248 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The CF1 - 5 spread was 40 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spread between Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 was 1,270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan [1]. [Macro and Industry News] - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The overall trading of cotton spot is sluggish, the inventory of high - quality lint is low, and the pre - sale of some new cotton has relatively good transactions. The spot sales basis is mostly stable. The mainstream sales basis of 2024/25 Nanjiang machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B with impurities within 3.5 is CF01 + 1200 - 1350, and some are lower than this price, for inland self - pick - up. The sales basis of 2024/25 Beijiang Production and Construction Corps Agricultural Division 8 machine - picked 4129/29B with impurities within 3 is CF01 + 1500 and above, for Xinjiang self - pick - up [1][2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The trading of the pure - cotton yarn market is lukewarm, weaker than the same period in previous years. Downstream weaving mills make just - in - time purchases, and cotton yarn prices are mainly stable, with real orders negotiated. The all - cotton grey fabric market has little change. Weaving mills say that in - machine orders are being continuously produced, but the order volume has decreased year - on - year, and it is difficult to get follow - up orders. Grey fabric prices are negotiated according to the quantity [1][2]. - **US Cotton**: Last Friday, ICE cotton futures first fell and then rose, continuing to fluctuate narrowly within the day. The USDA monthly supply and demand report basically met market expectations. The production of US cotton in the 25/26 season was slightly adjusted, and exports and ending stocks remained unchanged. In the global market, the beginning inventory, production, and consumption of Chinese cotton in the 25/26 season were mainly adjusted [1][2]. [Trend Strength] The trend strength of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral rating. The range of trend strength is an integer within the [-2, 2] interval, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall trading of domestic cotton spot is sluggish, with a shortage of high - quality spot inventory. Spinning mills only make purchases based on rigid demand, and most sales basis of cotton spot remain stable [2]. - The trading in the domestic pure - cotton yarn market is average. Downstream customers report insufficient new orders and mainly make rigid - demand purchases. Prices are generally stable, with most spinning mills holding firm on prices and some offering promotional discounts. The market is highly concerned about subsequent orders in September and the marginal changes in the downstream [2]. - The ICE cotton futures declined yesterday due to concerns about the listing pressure of new US cotton crops and the strengthening of the US dollar [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Data**: - CF2601 closed at 14,045 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.14%, and its night - session closing price was the same as the previous day. The trading volume was 338,147 lots, a decrease of 347,135 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 710,163 lots, a decrease of 5,361 lots [1]. - CY2511 closed at 19,995 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decrease of 0.12%, and its night - session closing price was 20,020 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.13%. The trading volume was 9,362 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 24,498 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - ICE US cotton 12 closed at 66.05 cents/pound yesterday with a decrease of 0.72% [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: - The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 6,131, a decrease of 189 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 0 [1]. - The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 60, an increase of 3 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 6, an increase of 54 from the previous day [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: - The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,297 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan from the previous day with a growth rate of 0.13%. The price of Nanjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,993 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan from the previous day with a growth rate of 0.13% [1]. - The price in Shandong was 15,440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan from the previous day with a decline rate of - 0.45%. The price in Hebei was 15,412 yuan/ton, a decrease of 44 yuan from the previous day with a decline rate of - 0.28% [1]. - The 3128B index was 15,412 yuan/ton, a decrease of 67 yuan from the previous day with a decline rate of - 0.43%. The international cotton index M: CNCottonM was 74.16 cents/pound, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 20,780 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,766 yuan/ton, an increase of 33 yuan from the previous day with a growth rate of 0.15% [1]. - **Spread Data**: - The CF1 - 5 spread was 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous day. The spread between Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 was 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Based on TTEB information, the overall trading of cotton spot is sluggish. High - quality spot inventory is scarce, and spinning mills only make rigid - demand purchases. Most sales basis of cotton spot remain stable. For example, the mainstream lower sales basis of 2024/25 Nanjiang Kashi machine - picked 3129/29B with impurities within 3.5 is in the range of CF01 + 1100 - 1200, and more sales basis are above CF01 + 1200, for inland self - pick - up. A small amount of 2024/25 Beijiang local machine - picked 4129/29 - 30B with impurities within 3 was traded at around CF01 + 1400 for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: According to TTEB information, the trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is average. Downstream customers report insufficient new orders and mainly make rigid - demand purchases. Prices are generally stable, with most spinning mills holding firm on prices and some offering promotional discounts. The market is highly concerned about subsequent orders in September and the marginal changes in the downstream [2]. - **US Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures declined yesterday due to concerns about the listing pressure of new US cotton crops and the strengthening of the US dollar [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0, with the value range of trend intensity being an integer within the [- 2,2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong, where - 2 represents the most bearish view and 2 represents the most bullish view [5].

2025 年 9 月 2 日 商 品 研 究 棉花：维持震荡偏强走势 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 棉花基本面数据 | | 名 称 | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CF2601 | 元/吨 | 14,025 | -1.51% | 14085 | 0.43% | | | CY2511 | 元/吨 | 20,020 | -0.60% | 20065 | 0.22% | | | ICE美棉12 | 美分/磅 | 66.53 | - | | - | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | CF2601 | 手 | 685,282 | 1,815 | 715,524 | -39,312 | | | CY2511 | 手 | 11,403 | -1,999 | 23,962 | 1,045 | | | | | 昨日仓单量 | 较前日变动 | 有效预报 | 较前日变动 | ...