商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 26 日 棉花：关注新作情况和外部市场情绪影响 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 棉花基本面数据 | | 名 称 | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CF2601 CY2511 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 14,120 20,165 | 0.64% 0.52% | 14145 20170 | 0.18% | | | | | | | | 0.02% | | | ICE美棉12 | 美分/磅 | 67.38 | -0.91% | | - | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | CF2601 | 手 | 330,783 | 116,564 | 731,041 | 3,462 | | | CY2511 | 手 | 8,008 | -1,999 | 22,276 | 1,045 | | | | | 昨日仓单量 | 较前日变动 | 有效预报 ...

棉花基本面数据 | | 名 称 | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CF2601 | 元/吨 | 14,030 | 0.00% | 14155 | 0.89% 0.60% | | | CY2511 | 元/吨 | 20,060 | 0.00% | 20180 | | | | ICE美棉12 | 美分/磅 | 68 | 0.79% | | - | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | CF2601 | 手 | 214,219 | 16,126 | 727,579 | -6,325 | | | CY2511 | 手 | 5,396 | -1,999 | 21,958 | 1,045 | | | | | 昨日仓单量 | 较前日变动 | 有效预报 | 较前日变动 | | | 郑棉 | 张 | 7,198 | -137 | 63 | -125 | | | 棉纱 | 张 | 64 | -5 | 0 | 69 | | | | | 价 ...

2025 年 8 月 22 日 棉花：期价窄幅波动等待新的驱动 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 棉花基本面数据 | | 名 称 | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CF2601 CY2511 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 14,030 20,060 | -0.18% -0.02% | 14045 20110 | 0.11% 0.25% | | | ICE美棉12 | 美分/磅 | 67.47 | -0.09% | | - | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | CF2601 | 手 | 198,093 | -180,332 | 733,904 | -4,203 | | | CY2511 | 手 | 5,701 | -1,999 | 22,074 | 1,045 | | | | | 昨日仓单量 | 较前日变动 | 有效预报 | 较前日变动 | | | 郑棉 | 张 | ...

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The cotton spot trading is average, with textile enterprises mainly making rigid - demand purchases. The spot basis remains relatively stable. The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market has rebounded, but overall it is still average, and the yarn price continues to rise slightly. The ICE cotton futures are in short - term oscillation waiting for new drivers [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For CF2601, the closing price was 14,100 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.18%, and the night - session closing price was 14,100 yuan/ton with no change. The trading volume was 209,409 lots, a decrease of 31,617 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 759,524 lots, a decrease of 4,507 lots. For CY2511, the closing price was 20,145 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.05%, and the night - session closing price was 20,160 yuan/ton with a 0.07% increase. The trading volume was 7,879 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 21,914 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots. The ICE US cotton 12 closed at 67.53 cents/pound, a 0.46% decline [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 7,762, a decrease of 67 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 249 with no change. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 69, a decrease of 5 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 0, an increase of 74 [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,292 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton (0.33%) from the previous day; the price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,983 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton (0.33%) from the previous day. The 3128B index was 15,243 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan/ton (0.06%) from the previous day. The international cotton index M was 75.34 cents/pound, an increase of 0.26 cents/pound (0.35%) from the previous day. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 20,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton (- 0.10%) from the previous day [1]. - **Spread Data**: The CF9 - 1 spread was - 295 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day; the spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,190 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: According to TTEB information, the cotton spot trading is average, with textile enterprises mainly making rigid - demand purchases. The offers of cotton in inland warehouses are relatively numerous, and the spot basis remains relatively stable. Different regions and qualities of cotton have different sales bases [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market has rebounded, with increased downstream restocking purchases, but overall it is still average. The feedback from textile enterprises varies greatly, and the yarn price continues to rise slightly [2]. - **US Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures declined slightly yesterday. The US Department of Agriculture lowered the US cotton production and ending stocks for the 25/26 season, providing support for the ICE cotton futures. The ICE cotton is in short - term oscillation waiting for new drivers [2]. 3. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - Cotton needs new drivers to continue rising [1] - Concerns about demand remain the main factor limiting the rise of ICE cotton [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2601 closed at 14,120 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.25%, and 14,105 yuan/ton at night with a decline of 0.11%. CY2511 closed at 20,185 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.35%, and 20,145 yuan/ton at night with a decline of 0.20%. ICE cotton 12 closed at 67.48 cents/pound with a decline of 0.16% [1] - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of CF2601 was 261,447 lots, a decrease of 93,841 lots from the previous day, and the position was 768,486 lots, a decrease of 11,977 lots. The trading volume of CY2511 was 7,393 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the position was 21,336 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 7,829, a decrease of 93, and the effective forecast was 249, a decrease of 24. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 74, unchanged, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 74 [1] - **Spot Prices**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,192 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan or 0.07%. The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,883 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan or 0.07%. The price in Shandong was 15,210 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price in Hebei was 15,224 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan or - 0.18%. The 3128B index was 15,216 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan or 0.01%. The international cotton index M was 75.21 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.12%. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32S was 20,720 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan or 0.10%, and the arrival price was 22,131 yuan/ton, an increase of 27 yuan or 0.12% [1] - **Spreads**: The CF9 - 1 spread was - 285 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan. The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,070 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Cotton spot trading was sluggish, with spinning mills making mainly rigid - demand purchases. The road freight for cotton out of Xinjiang increased slightly in some areas. The spot basis was stable. The mainstream sales basis for 2024/25 North and South Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B with impurities within 3.5 was CF09 + 1400 - 1600 for inland self - pick - up [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market improved, with increased transactions and downstream replenishment purchases. Yarn prices rose slightly, and spinning mills' operating rates changed little and remained under production restrictions. The overall situation of the all - cotton grey fabric market was average, with insufficient downstream orders. Most fabric mills were pessimistic about purchasing. The operating rates of fabric mills in Guangdong were stable, and those in the north recovered slightly, but the overall operating rate was low. Grey fabric quotes were raised, and actual orders were negotiated based on quantity [2] - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton futures declined slightly last Friday. Concerns about demand remained the main factor limiting its rise [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, with a value range of integers in the [- 2, 2] interval. [- 2] represents the most bearish view, and [2] represents the most bullish view [6]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 13 日 棉花：进口配额有关消息提振棉价 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 【基本面跟踪】 棉花基本面数据 | | 名 称 | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CF2601 | 元/吨 | 13,980 | 0.72% | 14090 | 0.79% | | | CY2511 | 元/吨 | 20,015 | 1.14% | 20075 | 0.30% | | | ICE美棉12 | 美分/磅 | 68.44 | 2.39% | | - | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | CF2601 | 手 | 315,885 | 15,277 | 749,409 | 301 | | | CY2511 | 手 | 7,769 | -1,999 | 18,627 | 1,045 | | | | | 昨日仓单量 | 较前 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The cotton market is experiencing a narrow - range oscillation. The domestic cotton spot trading is increasingly sluggish with stable basis, the cotton yarn market has minor changes, and the cotton fabric market has limited improvement in production and sales with high inventory. The ICE cotton futures declined due to the rising dollar and weak new - crop exports [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Contents a. Cotton Fundamental Data - **Futures**: For CF2601, the yesterday's closing price was 13,835 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.11%, and the night - session closing price was 13,825 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.07%. The trading volume was 196,806 lots, a decrease of 52,459 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 748,215 lots, a decrease of 2,804 lots. For CY2511, the yesterday's closing price was 19,705 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.03%, and the night - session closing price was 19,715 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.05%. The trading volume was 6,245 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 15,633 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots. The ICE cotton futures (December contract) closed at 66.36 cents/pound, a decline of 0.84% [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 8,329, a decrease of 135 compared to the previous day, with 348 valid forecasts (no change). The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 88 (no change), and the valid forecasts increased by 88 [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,002 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; South Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,687 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The prices in Shandong and Hebei increased by 20 yuan/ton and 18 yuan/ton respectively. The 3128B index was 15,191 yuan/ton, an increase of 13 yuan/ton. The international cotton index M was 74.39 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.36%. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 20,620 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton, and the arrival price was 22,128 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spreads**: The CF9 - 1 spread was - 165 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; the spread between North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [1]. b. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: According to TTEB, the domestic cotton spot trading is increasingly sluggish, and the spot basis is generally stable. Different regions have different sales basis levels [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The pure - cotton yarn market has minor changes. The knitting market in Guangdong has slightly improved, while the weaving market remains dull. The overall market feedback is average, and the cotton yarn prices are mainly stable. The cotton fabric market is cautious, with some improvement in orders for some fabric mills, but the overall order situation has not improved significantly. It is expected that the fabric mills' sales will gradually accelerate in August, and inventory will be digested, but currently, the increase in orders is limited, and the production and sales improvement is limited with high inventory [2]. - **US Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures declined again yesterday due to the rising dollar and weak new - crop exports [3]. c. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The sentiment in the cotton market has cooled down, leading to a correction in Zhengzhou cotton futures. The ICE cotton futures also dropped nearly 1% due to the strengthening of the US dollar and the overall weakness of bulk agricultural products [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2509 closed at 13,925 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 1.07% and a night - session decline of 0.39%. CY2509 closed at 19,995 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 1.19% and a night - session decline of 0.25%. ICE cotton 12 was at 67.66 cents/pound with a decline of 0.94%. Trading volume and positions of some futures contracts decreased [1]. - **Spot Data**: The prices of most domestic cotton and cotton yarn spot products decreased. For example, the price of North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton dropped by 150 yuan/ton to 15,232 yuan/ton, and the price of South Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton also dropped by 150 yuan/ton to 14,910 yuan/ton [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt and Forecast Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts decreased by 70 to 9,156, and the effective forecast decreased by 2 to 348. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 91, and the effective forecast increased by 91 to 91 [1]. - **Spread Data**: The CF9 - 1 spread was - 100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The spread between North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,310 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The trading of domestic cotton spot improved slightly. Some spinning mills that locked in the basis earlier carried out point - pricing. The sales basis of some cotton in South Xinjiang and North Xinjiang was relatively high [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market was average, with downstream purchases mainly for rigid demand. Spinning mills maintained firm prices. The cotton fabric market was still sluggish, and the sales of grey cloth were worse than before as cotton prices declined [2]. - **US Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures dropped nearly 1% due to the strengthening of the US dollar and the overall weakness of bulk agricultural products [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend [4].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report High basis and concerns about tight supply continue to support the cotton futures price. The cotton spot trading has slightly improved, the inventory of cotton spinning enterprises has slightly decreased, but the orders for grey cloth are still weak, and the ICE cotton futures are fluctuating narrowly with a slight decline in the good - quality rate of US cotton [1][2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2509 closed at 14,075 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 0.67%, and the night - session closed at 14,150 yuan/ton with a 0.53% increase; CY2509 closed at 20,235 yuan/ton yesterday with a 0.66% decline, and the night - session closed at 20,280 yuan/ton with a 0.22% increase; ICE US cotton 12 closed at 68.3 cents/pound with a 0.10% increase. The trading volume of CF2509 was 666,728 lots, an increase of 230,035 lots compared with the previous day, and the position was 866,475 lots, a decrease of 21,810 lots. The trading volume of CY2509 was 14,576 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the position was 9,411 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 9,226, a decrease of 39, and the effective forecast was 350, unchanged. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 91, a decrease of 5, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 96 [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,382 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan or 0.58% compared with the previous day; the price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan or 0.59%. The price in Shandong was 15,610 yuan/ton, an increase of 81 yuan or 0.52%; the price in Hebei was 15,589 yuan/ton, an increase of 51 yuan or 0.33%. The 3128B index was 15,609 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan or 0.39%. The international cotton index M was 75.80 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.62%. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 20,780 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan or 0.19%, and the arrival price was 22,092 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan or 0.07% [1]. - **Spread Data**: The CF9 - 1 spread decreased by 45 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, and the spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 increased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The cotton spot trading has slightly improved, the delivery of old cotton is relatively good, and the basis quotes of some cotton enterprises have slightly decreased, but the overall basis is still stable. The mainstream sales basis of 2024/25 North and South Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B with impurity within 3.5 is CF09 + 1300 - 1600, and the Corps' goods are quoted at 1600 - 1750 for inland self - pick - up [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is average, with downstream rigid - demand procurement as the main mode, and traders have a small amount of restocking. The inventory of spinning enterprises has slightly decreased. The orders for grey cloth are still weak, mainly small rigid - demand orders. Traditionally, market sampling orders will appear around the end of July and early August, but textile mills are more cautious this year, so they mainly purchase small orders of cotton yarn [2]. - **US Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures fluctuated narrowly yesterday, and the market still lacks fundamental guidance. The US Department of Agriculture's weekly crop growth report showed that the good - quality rate of US cotton slightly decreased. As of the week of July 27, the good - quality rate of US cotton was 55%, compared with 57% in the previous week and 49% in the same period last year [2]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The report suggests paying attention to the impact of short - term market sentiment changes on the cotton market. It also presents detailed data on cotton fundamentals, macro and industry news, and the trend strength of cotton [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2509 closed at 14,170 yuan/ton with a 0.07% daily increase and 14,150 yuan/ton at night with a - 0.14% - -0.17% decrease; CY2509 closed at 20,370 yuan/ton with a 0.05% daily increase and 20,335 yuan/ton at night; ICE US Cotton 12 closed at 68.23 cents/pound with a - 0.74% decrease. The trading volume and open interest of CF2509 increased, while CY2509's trading volume decreased and open interest increased [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: Zhengzhou cotton's warehouse receipts decreased by 72 to 9,265, and the effective forecast increased by 15 to 350. Cotton yarn's warehouse receipts remained at 96, and the effective forecast increased by 96 to 96 [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: The prices of North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and South Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton increased slightly, while the prices in Shandong and Hebei decreased slightly. The 3128B index decreased by 0.09%. The international cotton index M increased by 0.59%. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32S remained unchanged, and its arrival price increased by 0.16% [1]. - **Spread Data**: The CF9 - 1 spread decreased by 40 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and the spread between North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 remained unchanged [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The overall rigid - demand trading of cotton spot was still acceptable, with better sales of old cotton. Some high - price basis quotes were slightly adjusted down, and the overall basis remained stable. There were specific basis quotes for different types of cotton [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market was average, with spinning mills having firm quotes and downstream buyers making rigid - demand purchases. The trading in the all - cotton grey fabric market was generally light, with stable prices. Factories had high inventories, and the de - stocking effect was average [2]. - **US Cotton**: Last Friday, ICE cotton futures declined slightly, and the market lacked fundamental guidance, resulting in light trading [3]. 3.3 Trend Strength The trend strength of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral stance. The trend strength ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4][5]