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棉花:内盘缺乏新的驱动20260331
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-31 02:00
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic cotton futures market lacks new driving forces. ICE cotton futures rose nearly 1% yesterday, hitting a new high for the year, mainly due to the rise during the Asian session. The market remains optimistic ahead of tonight's USDA planting area intention report [2]. - The spot trading of domestic cotton is mostly sluggish, and the spot basis is generally stable. The overall quotation of pure cotton yarn is stable, and the sales are average. The trading focus of some categories of a few open - end spinning mills has declined steadily, and individual traders have a large negotiation space for sales [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - CF2605 closed at 15,385 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 0.06%, and the night - session closing price was 15,405 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.13%. The trading volume was 404,984 lots, a decrease of 62,162 lots from the previous day, and the positions were 1,087,785 lots, a decrease of 67 lots from the previous day [1]. - CY2605 closed at 21,515 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.37%, and the night - session closing price was 21,600 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.40%. The trading volume was 7,586 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the positions were 8,255 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots from the previous day [1]. - ICE US Cotton 5 closed at 70.07 cents/pound yesterday with an increase of 0.86% [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: - The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 12,435, an increase of 1 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 371, an increase of 32 from the previous day [1]. - The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 220, a decrease of 2 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 78, an increase of 144 from the previous day [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: - The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 16,634 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous day, a decline of 0.06%. The price of Nanjjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 16,573 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous day, a decline of 0.06% [1]. - The price in Shandong was 16,868 yuan/ton, an increase of 19 yuan from the previous day, an increase of 0.11%. The price in Hebei was 16,880 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan from the previous day, an increase of 0.03% [1]. - The 3128B index was 16,823 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan from the previous day, an increase of 0.05%. The Cotlook:A index was 80.10 cents/pound, an increase of 1.25 cents from the previous day, an increase of 1.59% [1]. - The price of pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 22,280 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The arrival price of pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 22,653 yuan/ton, an increase of 44 yuan from the previous day, an increase of 0.19% [1]. - **Spread Data**: - The CF5 - 9 spread was - 130 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan from the previous day's spread [1]. - The spread between Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot Situation**: According to TTEB information, the spot trading of cotton is mostly sluggish, and the spot basis is generally stable. The mainstream lower sales basis of 2025/26 Nanjjiang Kashi machine - picked 3129/29B with impurity within 3.5 and micronaire value above 4 is CF05 + 1100 - 1200, and most quotes are above 1200, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang. The mainstream sales basis of 2025/26 Beijiang machine - picked 4129/29B with impurity within 3.5 is CF05 + 1300 - 1550, mostly above CF05 + 1350, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises Situation**: According to TTEB information, the overall quotation of pure cotton yarn is stable, and the sales are average. The market has been relatively dull recently, with mediocre sales. The trading focus of some categories of a few open - end spinning mills has declined steadily, and individual traders have a large negotiation space for sales [2]. - **US Cotton Situation**: Yesterday, ICE cotton futures rose nearly 1%, hitting a new high for the year, mainly due to the rise during the Asian session. The market remains optimistic ahead of tonight's USDA planting area intention report [2]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The range of trend intensity values is in the [- 2,2] interval, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [3][4]
棉花:关注外部市场影响20260325
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-25 02:40
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report mainly tracks the fundamentals of cotton, including the prices, trading volumes, and positions of cotton futures and the prices of cotton and cotton yarn in the spot market. It also mentions the domestic cotton spot situation, the situation of domestic cotton textile enterprises, and the situation of US cotton. The trend strength of cotton is rated as neutral [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of CF2605 was 15,215 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.43% and a night - session closing price of 15,210 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.03%. The closing price of CY2605 was 21,555 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.09% and a night - session closing price of 21,555 yuan/ton with no change. The price of ICE US cotton 5 was 67.57 cents/pound with a daily increase of 0.51% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of CF2605 was 400,158 lots, a decrease of 178,892 lots compared to the previous day, and the position was 1,068,997 lots, an increase of 10,907 lots. The trading volume of CY2605 was 9,840 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the position was 13,966 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 12,354, a decrease of 30, and the effective forecast was 426, an increase of 77. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 241, a decrease of 10, and the effective forecast was 67, an increase of 184 [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 16,459 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton or 0.36%. The price of South Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 16,398 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton or 0.36%. The price in Shandong was 16,744 yuan/ton, an increase of 126 yuan/ton or 0.76%. The price in Hebei was 16,793 yuan/ton, an increase of 103 yuan/ton or 0.62%. The 3128B index was 16,732 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan/ton or 0.84%. The Cotlook:A index was 77.85 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.40 cents/pound or 0.51%. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 22,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton or 0.23%. The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 22,516 yuan/ton, a decrease of 66 yuan/ton or 0.29% [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The CF5 - 9 price spread decreased by 20 yuan/ton to - 140 yuan/ton. The spread between North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,240 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot Situation**: Cotton spot trading was generally sluggish, and spot basis was generally stable. The mainstream quotation range of 2025/26 South Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29B with impurity within 3.5 and micronaire value above 4 was CF05 + 1150~1400. The lower sales basis of 2025/26 North Xinjiang machine - picked 4129/29B with impurity within 3.5 and micronaire value above 4 was CF05 + 1300~1400 [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises Situation**: The quotation of pure - cotton yarn was generally stable, but the sales pace slowed down compared with the early stage of "Golden March". New orders and customer inquiries of some inland spinning enterprises decreased significantly, and some spinning enterprises had no production plan for combed high - count yarn. Some traders had high inventory of regular yarn and sold at low prices [2]. - **US Cotton Situation**: Yesterday, ICE cotton futures first declined and then rose, rebounding after reaching the technical support level [3]. 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength of cotton is 0, which is rated as neutral, with the value range of [- 2,2] and the classification of weak,偏弱, neutral, 偏强, and strong, where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [6].
棉花:关注外部市场波动20260320
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-20 02:07
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The report presents the latest data on cotton fundamentals, including futures prices, trading volumes, positions, and spot prices. It also covers macro and industry news such as the domestic cotton spot situation, the state of domestic cotton textile enterprises, and the situation of US cotton. Overall, the report points out that the cotton market is affected by external market fluctuations, with weak US cotton export sales data impacting the ICE cotton futures price, and the domestic cotton spot market having weak trading and cautious purchasing by textile enterprises [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2605 closed at 15,150 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.39% and a night - session decline of 0.63%; CY2605 closed at 21,285 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.07% and a night - session increase of 0.49%. ICE cotton 5 closed at 67.71 cents/pound with a decline of 1.44%. The trading volume of CF2605 was 523,853 lots, a decrease of 237,183 lots from the previous day, and the position was 1,083,663 lots, a decrease of 27,526 lots. The trading volume of CY2605 was 10,269 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the position was 14,190 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 12,437, a decrease of 43, and the effective forecast was 323, an increase of 44. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 282, a decrease of 19, and the effective forecast was 67, an increase of 234 [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The price of North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 16,384 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.36%; the price of South Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 16,323 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.37%. The 3128B index was 16,722 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.04%. The Cotlook:A index was 79.35 cents/pound, an increase of 0.76% [1] - **Price Difference Data**: The CF5 - 9 price difference was - 105 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price difference between North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was 1,230 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The overall trading of domestic cotton spot was weak. Textile enterprises were worried about the continued decline of cotton prices and had a low purchasing willingness. The spot basis was generally stable, and most cotton merchants had not adjusted the basis. Different regions and varieties had different basis ranges [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The overall inquiry enthusiasm in the pure cotton yarn market slightly declined. A few spinning enterprises with relatively high previous quotations lowered their prices to promote transactions. Some spinning enterprises' orders could cover the "Golden March" period, and a few combed high - count varieties' orders could cover the "Silver April" [2] - **US Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures price declined by 1.44% due to weak US cotton weekly export sales data. As of the week of March 12, the net increase in US cotton exports in the current market year was 196,700 bales, a decrease of 22% from the previous week and 30% from the four - week average [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [5]
棉花:阶段性外强内弱20260318
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-18 02:08
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market shows a pattern of "externally strong and internally weak" in the short - term. ICE cotton futures rose due to technical buying and fund short - covering, while the domestic cotton spot market is still sluggish, and the procurement willingness of textile enterprises is not strong for now [1][3]. - The overall quotation of pure - cotton yarn is stable with a slight increase. The order delivery of textile enterprises is progressing orderly, the spot inventory is generally low, and they mainly consume the previous cotton inventory. The high - count pure - cotton yarn has good sales and stable prices [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - CF2605 closed at 15,415 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.42%, and the night - session closing price was 15,385 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.19%. CY2605 closed at 21,480 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.02%, and the night - session closing price was 21,405 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.35%. ICE cotton 5 closed at 68.71 cents/pound with a daily increase of 0.39% [1]. - The trading volume of CF2605 was 607,756 lots, a decrease of 22,268 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest was 1,153,430 lots, an increase of 3,822 lots. The trading volume of CY2605 was 9,953 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the open interest was 14,042 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 12,482, a decrease of 13, and the effective forecast was 293, unchanged. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 307, a decrease of 12, and the effective forecast was 67, an increase of 252 [1]. - **Spot Data**: - The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 16,644 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan or 0.60% compared with the previous day. The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 16,583 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan or 0.60%. The price in Shandong was 16,887 yuan/ton, a decrease of 56 yuan or 0.33%. The price in Hebei was 16,882 yuan/ton, a decrease of 43 yuan or 0.25%. The 3128B index was 16,821 yuan/ton, a decrease of 63 yuan or 0.37% [1]. - The Cotlook:A index was 76.45 cents/pound, an increase of 0.70 cents or 0.92%. The price of pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count was 22,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan or 0.23%. The arrival price of pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count was 22,496 yuan/ton, an increase of 184 yuan or 0.82% [1]. - **Spread Data**: The CF5 - 9 spread was - 75 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was 1,230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: According to TTEB information, the domestic cotton spot market is still sluggish, and the procurement willingness of textile enterprises is not strong for now. The mainstream basis of spot is generally stable. There are different basis quotes for different types of cotton in different regions [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The quotation of pure - cotton yarn of some manufacturers has been slightly increased, and the overall quotation is stable with a slight increase. The order delivery of textile enterprises is progressing orderly, the spot inventory is generally low, and they mainly consume the previous cotton inventory. The high - count pure - cotton yarn has good sales and stable prices [2]. - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton futures continued to rise yesterday, affected by technical buying and fund short - covering [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The cotton trend intensity is 1, with the trend intensity value ranging from - 2 to 2. The classification of strength is weak, weak - biased, neutral, strong - biased, and strong, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [6].
棉花:外盘走强20260317
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-17 01:40
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ICE cotton futures rose yesterday, boosted by the news that China issued a 300,000 - ton cotton processing trade import quota [3] - The domestic cotton spot trading remained sluggish, with spinning mills' procurement willingness temporarily weak, and the overall mainstream basis of spot cotton was stable. Some spinning mills had more new orders and full production schedules due to the Shanghai exhibition, and there were low inventories of regular and medium - high - count yarns in Xinjiang and inland spinning mills, with the operating rate significantly higher than the same period last year [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - CF2605 closed at 15,480 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.42%, and the night - session closing price was 15,570 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.58%. Its trading volume was 630,024 lots, a decrease of 383,334 lots from the previous day, and the position was 1,149,608 lots, a decrease of 533 lots [1] - CY2605 closed at 21,485 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decrease of 0.37%, and the night - session closing price was 21,520 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.16%. Its trading volume was 12,915 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the position was 13,725 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - ICE cotton futures (ICE美棉5) closed at 68.44 cents/pound yesterday with a daily increase of 4.01% [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: - The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 12,495, a decrease of 11 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 293, an increase of 8 [1] - The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 319, a decrease of 1 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 67, an increase of 253 [1] - **Spot Price Data**: - The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 16,744 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan or 0.30% from the previous day [1] - The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 16,683 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan or 0.30% from the previous day [1] - The price in Shandong was 16,943 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan or 0.06% from the previous day [1] - The price in Hebei was 16,925 yuan/ton, an increase of 13 yuan or 0.08% from the previous day [1] - The 3128B index was 16,884 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan or 0.04% from the previous day [1] - The Cotlook:A index was 75.75 cents/pound, an increase of 0.05 cents or 0.07% from the previous day [1] - The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 22,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] - The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 22,312 yuan/ton, an increase of 112 yuan or 0.50% from the previous day [1] - **Spread Data**: - The CF5 - 9 spread decreased by 75 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, with a change of 20 [1] - The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was 1,260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan from the previous day [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot Situation**: According to TTEB information, the mainstream basis of domestic cotton spot remained stable, with the mainstream sales basis of 2025/26 Southern Xinjiang Kashgar machine - picked 3129/29B (impurity within 3.5, micronaire value 4 and above) at CF05 + 1100 and above, and that of 2025/26 Northern Xinjiang machine - picked 4129/29B (impurity within 3.5) at CF05 + 1250 - 1350, mostly at CF05 + 1350 and above, both for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises Situation**: According to TTEB information, the quotation of pure - cotton yarn remained stable, and spinning mills continued to reduce inventories. Affected by the Shanghai exhibition, some spinning mills had more new orders and full production schedules, and there were low inventories of regular and medium - high - count yarns in Xinjiang and inland spinning mills, with the operating rate significantly higher than the same period last year. The follow - up downstream order trend should be continuously monitored [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 1, indicating a "neutral" state according to the classification where the trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4][5]
棉花:关注外盘走势20260316
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-16 02:11
Group 1: Report Overview - The report focuses on the cotton market, analyzing its fundamentals, macro and industry news, and trend intensity [1][2][5] Group 2: Fundamental Data Futures - CF2605 closed at 15,415 yuan/ton with a -0.84% daily change and 15,450 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.23% change. Its trading volume was 1,013,358 lots, an increase of 285,861 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 1,150,141 lots, a decrease of 4,152 lots [1] - CY2605 closed at 21,565 yuan/ton with a -0.78% daily change and 21,575 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.05% change. Its trading volume was 15,104 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 14,249 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - ICE Cotton No.5 closed at 65.8 cents/pound with a 0.90% daily increase [1] Spot - The price of North Xinjiang 3128 machine-picked cotton was 16,694 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan or -0.60% from the previous day [1] - The price of South Xinjiang 3128 machine-picked cotton was 16,633 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan or -0.48% from the previous day [1] - The price in Shandong was 16,933 yuan/ton, an increase of 39 yuan or 0.23% from the previous day [1] - The price in Hebei was 16,912 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan or 0.17% from the previous day [1] - The 3128B index was 16,877 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan or 0.17% from the previous day [1] - The Cotlook:A index was 75.75 cents/pound, an increase of 0.05 cents or 0.07% from the previous day [1] - The price of pure cotton combed yarn 32S was 22,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] - The arrival price of pure cotton combed yarn 32S was 22,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 205 yuan or 0.93% from the previous day [1] Spreads - The CF5 - 9 spread was -95 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan from the previous day [1] - The spread between North Xinjiang 3128 machine-picked cotton and CF605 was 1,280 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan from the previous day [1] Warehouse Receipts - The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 12,506, an increase of 181 from the previous day, and the valid forecasts were 285, a decrease of 161 from the previous day [1] - The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 320, an increase of 101 from the previous day, and the valid forecasts were 67, an increase of 51 from the previous day [1] Group 3: Macro and Industry News Domestic Cotton Spot - Cotton spot trading remained sluggish. The lower price of 2025/26 South Xinjiang machine-picked 3129/29B with impurity within 3.5 and micronaire value above 4 was CF05 + 1100 - 1250, and the higher price was mostly CF05 + 1250 and above. The same-quality Kashgar fixed-price offer started at 16,600 yuan, for self-pickup in Xinjiang [2] - The fixed-price offer of 2025/26 North Xinjiang machine-picked 31 - 41 grade 29/29B with impurity within 3.5 was mostly 16,900 - 17,000 yuan and above, excluding light spotted stains, on a conditioned weight basis, for self-pickup in Xinjiang [2] Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises - The price of pure cotton yarn remained stable, and the overall market trading was good. Downstream orders continued to be released, and the production schedules of some large spinning mills were getting tight, with some manufacturers having overbooked orders [2] - Conventional yarn and high-count yarn sold well, while low-count yarn (including rotor spun yarn) was affected by imported yarn, with a slower sales pace, and some spinning mills continued to lower their prices [2] US Cotton - Last Friday, ICE cotton futures rose, with the December contract hitting a new high this year, mainly due to the expectation of increased Chinese cotton imports [2] Group 4: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend. The range of trend intensity is an integer within [-2, 2], with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [5]
棉花:等待新的驱动20260313
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-13 02:04
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market is waiting for new drivers. The overall trading atmosphere in the domestic cotton - textile enterprise market is steadily improving, with the downstream shipment volume continuously increasing. However, the ICE cotton futures failed to maintain their gains due to insufficient fundamental drivers and concerns about the economic outlook caused by high oil prices [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2605 closed at 15,545 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.19% and a night - session closing price of 15,600 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.35%. CY2605 closed at 21,735 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.72% and a night - session closing price of 21,625 yuan/ton with a night - session decrease of 0.51%. ICE cotton 5 closed at 65.21 cents/pound with a decrease of 0.05%. The trading volume of CF2605 was 727,497 lots, a decrease of 217,389 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 1,154,293 lots, an increase of 2,721 lots. The trading volume of CY2605 was 16,137 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 14,724 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zheng cotton warehouse receipts was 12,325, an increase of 173 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 446, a decrease of 164. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 219, an increase of 105 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 168, a decrease of 163 [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The price of North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 16,794 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan or 0.18% from the previous day. The price of South Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 16,713 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan or 0.18% from the previous day. The price in Shandong was 16,894 yuan/ton, an increase of 193 yuan or 1.16% from the previous day. The price in Hebei was 16,883 yuan/ton, an increase of 168 yuan or 1.01% from the previous day. The 3128B index was 16,848 yuan/ton, an increase of 180 yuan or 1.08% from the previous day. The Cotlook:A index was 75.75 cents/pound, an increase of 0.55 cents or 0.73% from the previous day. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 22,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,995 yuan/ton, an increase of 41 yuan or 0.19% from the previous day [1] - **Spread Data**: The CF5 - 9 spread was - 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan from the previous day. The spread between North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Cotton spot trading was mostly weak, point - price trading was sluggish, and fixed - price trading was relatively good. The mainstream basis quotes remained stable, and some high - basis quotes for cotton spot were slightly lowered. For 2025/26 North Xinjiang machine - picked 4129/29B with impurity within 3.5, many sales basis were at CF05 + 1250~1350 and above, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang. Some fixed - price transactions of 2025/26 North Xinjiang machine - picked 4129/29B with impurity within 3.5 were at 16,800 (on a conditioned weight basis) and above, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [2] - **Domestic Cotton - Textile Enterprises**: The overall trading atmosphere in the pure - cotton yarn market was steadily improving. The downstream shipment volume continued to increase, and the Shanghai Textile Exhibition promoted active business docking in the industry, further warming up the market trading atmosphere. Recently, high - count pure - cotton yarns of 40S and above performed relatively prominently. Some spinning mills' order schedules had exceeded one month, and the quotes of large spinning mills showed a steady - to - rising trend [2] - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton futures closed slightly lower by 0.05% yesterday. In the morning, ICE cotton futures rose. After the USDA released the weekly US cotton export data, ICE cotton futures reached the daily high, with the December contract hitting a new high this year. However, due to insufficient fundamental drivers and concerns about the economic outlook caused by high oil prices, ICE cotton failed to maintain its gains and finally returned to near the previous day's closing price [2] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 1, indicating a neutral trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4]
棉花:等待新的驱动20260306
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-06 02:55
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is waiting for new drivers. The trend strength of cotton is rated as 1, indicating a neutral position [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - CF2605 closed at 15,250 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.30%, and its night - session price was 15,215 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.23%. CY2605 closed at 21,055 yuan/ton with no daily change, and its night - session price was 21,045 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.05%. ICE US cotton 5 closed at 64.06 cents/pound with a decline of 0.17% [1]. - CF2605 had a trading volume of 731,712 lots, an increase of 217,072 lots from the previous day, and a position of 1,169,583 lots, an increase of 10,196 lots. CY2605 had a trading volume of 16,686 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and a position of 14,331 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - The number of Zheng cotton warehouse receipts was 11,390, an increase of 11 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 1,253, an increase of 121. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 363, a decrease of 285 [1]. - **Spot Data**: - The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 16,444 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan or 0.30% from the previous day. The price of Nanjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 16,377 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan or 0.31% from the previous day. The price in Shandong was 16,605 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan or 0.12% from the previous day. The price in Hebei was 16,608 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan or 0.15% from the previous day [1]. - The 3128B index was 16,583 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan or 0.07% from the previous day. The Cotlook:A index was 74.50 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.45 cents or 0.60% from the previous day [1]. - The price of pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count was 21,920 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The arrival price of pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count was 21,826 yuan/ton, a decrease of 43 yuan or 0.20% from the previous day [1]. - **Spread Data**: - The CF5 - 9 spread was - 70 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan from the previous day. The spread between Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was 1,190 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The spot trading of cotton was sluggish, with relatively good procurement by some local traders. The basis of cotton spot remained stable. In 2025/26, the price of machine - picked 3129/29B cotton in Kashgar, Nanjiang with impurity within 3.5 was mostly quoted at CF05 + 1100 or above, and a small amount of cotton with impurity around 3.5 had a lower quote within 1100, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The quotation of pure cotton yarn was basically stable. Recently, the orders for combed high - count yarn were relatively good. Some inland spinning enterprises had a production schedule of about one month, and some spinning enterprises in Xinjiang could extend their orders until the end of April. The orders for semi - combed varieties in Henan, Shandong and other places were also smooth, and the market demand was gradually released [2]. - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton futures fell slightly yesterday. Affected by the poor weekly export sales data of US cotton, ICE cotton once fell to 63.62 cents/pound. At the end of the session, affected by the rise of crude oil and other agricultural products, ICE cotton rose back above 64 cents/pound. According to the US Department of Agriculture's weekly export sales report, as of February 26, the net increase in US cotton export sales was 150,400 bales, a 41% decrease from the previous week and a 50% decrease from the four - week average [2].
棉花:等待新的驱动20260304
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-04 01:43
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The cotton market is waiting for new drivers. The trend strength of cotton is rated as 1, indicating a relatively neutral outlook [1][6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2605 closed at 15,255 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.20% and a night - session decrease of 0.62%. CY2605 closed at 21,100 yuan/ton with no daily change and a night - session decrease of 0.59%. ICE Cotton 5 closed at 64.16 cents/pound with a decrease of 0.99%. The trading volume and positions of CF2605 and CY2605 changed compared to the previous day, and the number of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts of Zheng cotton and cotton yarn also had corresponding changes [1] - **Spot Data**: The prices of various cotton and cotton yarn products showed different changes. For example, the price of North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton increased by 0.30%, while the 3128B index decreased by 0.25%. The price of pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count remained unchanged, and its arrival price increased by 1.36% [1] - **Spread Data**: The CF5 - 9 spread was - 45 yuan/ton, and the spread between North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was 1,190 yuan/ton, with a change of 20 yuan compared to the previous day [1] Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The trading of domestic cotton spot has improved, with most transactions based on locked basis. The basis of cotton spot has remained stable. Different regions have different basis quotes [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The price of pure - cotton yarn has been stable with a slight decline. The market is in a wait - and - see state. The downstream market has not fully started, and the new orders in the pure - cotton yarn market are insufficient. The actual transaction price is significantly lower than the quoted price. The trading in the all - cotton grey cloth market has generally recovered, but there has been no significant improvement [2] - **US Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures continued to fall by nearly 1% due to the risk - aversion sentiment caused by the Iran situation [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 1, with the range of values being in the [-2, 2] interval, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [6]
棉花:等待新的驱动20260303
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-03 02:10
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The cotton market is waiting for new drivers. The prices of cotton and cotton yarn futures and spot have shown certain fluctuations, and the market situation is affected by factors such as the Iranian situation and the recovery of the downstream market [1][2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of CF2605 and CY2605 decreased, with daily declines of 1.10% and 0.68% respectively, and night - session declines of 0.33% and 0.40% respectively. ICE cotton 5 also fell by 1.16%. The trading volume of CF2605 increased by 92,436 hands, and its position decreased by 25,191 hands. The trading volume of CY2605 decreased by 1,999 hands, and its position increased by 1,045 hands [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts increased by 155 to 11,327, and the effective forecast decreased by 122 to 1,122. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts remained at 0, and the effective forecast decreased by 52 to 148 [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The prices of northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton decreased by 0.91%. The price of Shandong cotton increased by 0.07%, and the price of Hebei cotton remained unchanged. The 3128B index increased slightly by 0.01%, and the Cotlook:A index decreased by 1.05%. The prices of pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count increased by 0.23% and 0.25% respectively [1] - **Spread Data**: The CF5 - 9 spread was - 80 yuan/ton, and the spread between northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was 1,170 yuan/ton, with a change of 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The trading of cotton spot was mostly light, with partial low - basis transactions being better. The spot basis was stable and slightly weak, with some downward adjustments [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The price of pure - cotton yarn remained stable overall, and the market trading was slowly recovering. Due to the fact that some workers in the downstream had not returned to work, the actual downstream orders were limited. It was expected that the downstream market would gradually recover after the Lantern Festival [2] - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton futures fell yesterday due to the risk - aversion sentiment caused by the Iranian situation, and the market sold some commodities unrelated to the Iranian situation [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 1, indicating a relatively neutral - to - slightly - positive view on the cotton market, with the trend intensity ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [5]