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棉花:6月震荡运行,8月底库存预计155 - 180万吨
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-26 22:46
Core Viewpoint - The cotton market is experiencing fluctuations due to multiple influencing factors, including macroeconomic conditions, geopolitical tensions, and seasonal demand variations [1] Macroeconomic Factors - The expiration of U.S. Treasury bonds in June has raised market concerns - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates amid inflation and tariff issues reflects a hawkish stance, limiting the likelihood of rate cuts [1] Market Conditions - The textile industry is currently in a seasonal downturn, with the operating rate in Foshan's Zhangcha weaving mills at only 1-2 layers - Concerns are growing about a potential decrease in operating rates for textile enterprises in July and August [1] Geopolitical Influences - The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, along with U.S. military aid to Israel, has garnered global attention and may impact market sentiment [1] CFTC Holdings - The CFTC's net short position has increased by 4,400 contracts to 36,700 contracts, contributing to a weakening of foreign cotton prices [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic commercial inventory is expected to be between 1.55 to 1.8 million tons by the end of August, which, while tight, is less severe than previously anticipated, supporting the September contract [1] - Global production is projected to increase, with Xinjiang's output estimated at 7.2 to 7.5 million tons and Brazil's at 3.95 million tons, while U.S. cotton production remains uncertain due to drought conditions [1] Consumption Outlook - The consumption outlook is highly variable, dependent on U.S. tariff policies and the timing of potential Federal Reserve rate cuts [1] - The market sentiment is cautious, with significant uncertainty regarding cotton usage from July to September [1] Price Projections - The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 13,276 to 13,570, with a focus on potential price declines in July and August, while the downside is seen as limited between 12,500 to 13,000 [1] - Long-term, increased supply is anticipated, but uncertainties in macroeconomic conditions and consumer behavior remain [1]