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宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20251118
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-11-18 01:13
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term soybean futures prices are highly volatile due to the game between cost - driven factors and industrial chain pressure in the domestic soybean market, while the three major oil futures prices are driven by different logics, and the differentiated trend in the oil market may continue. [5][7] 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Trend**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [5][6] - **Core Logic**: The positive outlook for US soybean demand has pushed the US soybean futures price to a one - and - a - half - year high, and the record - high US soybean crushing volume also supports the price. The short - term market oscillates between tight US soybean supply and lower - than - expected demand. The domestic soybean market is in a continuous game between cost - driven factors and industrial chain pressure. [5] 3.2 Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trend**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [6][7] - **Core Logic**: BMD crude palm oil rebounded from a low level, supported by the expected tightening of the palm oil supply - demand outlook and the weakening of the ringgit. However, the weak exports of Malaysian palm oil from November 1 - 15 limited the increase. The palm oil futures price is still in the bottom - building phase. [7] 3.3 Other Varieties (General Information in Table) - **Soybean Meal 2601**: Influenced by imported soybean costs, import arrival rhythm, oil mill operation rhythm, and inventory pressure [6] - **Soybean Oil 2601**: Supported by US soybean costs, US biofuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean costs, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6] - **Palm 2601**: Affected by its biodiesel properties, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [6]