投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 10 月 10 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 煤矿事故扰动，焦煤区间震荡 | | 焦炭 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 多空交织，焦炭震荡运行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：下游补库需求兑现后，国庆期间焦煤现货市场氛围转淡。供需方面，根据钢联统计， 截至 10 月 3 日当周 ...

人民财讯10月9日电，国内商品期货收盘，生猪、液化石油气跌逾5%，鸡蛋跌逾4%，尿素跌逾3%，烧 碱、甲醇跌逾2%；沪金、国际铜、沪铜、棕榈油涨逾4%，沪锡、沪镍、沪银涨逾2%。 （原标题：国内商品期货收盘 沪金涨逾4%） ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 10 月 9 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 基本面边际走弱，焦煤期货震荡 | | | | | | | | 调整 | | 焦炭 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 成本支撑走弱，焦炭区间震荡运 | | | | | | | | 行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 观点参考 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，9月26日，国内商品商品期货收盘，涨跌不一。红枣、沪银等涨超2%，LU燃油、菜籽油 等涨逾1%，玉米、花生等小幅上涨；焦炭、焦煤跌超2%，铁矿石、螺纹钢等跌超1%，棉花、生猪等小 幅下跌。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various commodity futures markets, including base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals, and provides corresponding trading strategies based on market performance and fundamentals [1][3][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Base Metals - **Copper**: Yesterday, copper prices fluctuated after rising. The market speculated on the significant production cut of Freeport's Indonesian project, and the domestic association called for anti - involution, but the strong US economic data at night led to a pull - back. Downstream demand showed resilience after the price increase. It is recommended to buy on dips [1]. - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.29% compared to the previous trading day. The electrolytic aluminum plant maintained high - load production, and downstream consumption continued to recover. It is recommended to go long on dips as the inventory build - up rate of aluminum ingots slows down, and there is still an expectation of inventory draw - down after the holiday [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the alumina main contract increased by 1.20% compared to the previous trading day. The operating capacity of alumina plants continued to increase, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production. The price of the alumina futures may rebound due to the strike in Guinea and the anti - involution sentiment in the glass industry, but the oversupply pattern remains unchanged, and the spot price is still falling [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Thursday morning, it opened higher and then fluctuated. The supply side saw a decrease of 1 furnace in the number of open furnaces this week compared to last week, and the social inventory remained flat. The demand side was supported by the high operating rate of polysilicon. The price is expected to oscillate between 8700 - 9800 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: It opened higher on Thursday and fluctuated narrowly throughout the day. The fundamental situation is supply - strong and demand - weak. The price is expected to oscillate between 48000 - 57000 yuan/ton. Attention can be paid to the 11 - 12 reverse spread opportunity, and those with low risk appetite can consider buying out - of - the - money put options on the main contract [1][2]. - **Tin**: Yesterday, tin prices fluctuated weakly. The strong US economic data at night strengthened the US dollar index, suppressing tin prices. The supply side has expectations of resuming and starting production of tin mines. The demand needs to be boosted. It is recommended to adopt an oscillatory trading strategy [2]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main 2601 contract of rebar closed at 3157 yuan/ton. The overall supply - demand contradiction of steel is limited, but the structural differentiation is obvious. It is recommended to wait and see mainly, and try the 10/5 reverse spread of rebar. The reference range for RB01 is 3120 - 3190 yuan/ton [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The main 2601 contract of iron ore closed at 802.5 yuan/ton. The supply - demand of iron ore is moderately strong. It is recommended to wait and see mainly and hold the long position of the iron ore - coking coal - coke ratio. The reference range for I01 is 790 - 810 yuan/ton [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The main 2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1216 yuan/ton. The futures valuation is relatively high. It is recommended to wait and see mainly and hold the long position of the iron ore - coking coal - coke ratio. The reference range for JM01 is 1170 - 1240 yuan/ton [3]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight, CBOT soybeans rose slightly. The US soybeans had a slight production cut, and South America is expected to increase production in the long - term. The global inventory is expected to remain high. The US soybeans are weak and range - bound, and the domestic market is also expected to oscillate. The mid - term focus is on Sino - US tariff policies [5]. - **Corn**: The 2511 contract of corn fluctuated narrowly. The spot price in North China rose while that in the Northeast fell. The new crop is expected to increase production, and the cost has dropped significantly, suppressing the forward price. The futures price is expected to oscillate and decline [5]. - **Sugar**: The 01 contract of Zhengzhou sugar closed at 5494 yuan/ton. Internationally, Brazil's sugar production reached a new high, and the domestic import volume in August also reached a new high. It is recommended to go short in the futures market and sell call options [5]. - **Cotton**: Overnight, the price of US cotton futures stopped falling and oscillated. The international cotton export sales decreased, and the domestic cotton cloth import increased. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily and adopt a range - bound strategy between 13600 - 14000 yuan/ton [5]. - **Log**: The 11 contract of log closed at 807.5 yuan/cubic meter. The overall inventory of major ports in the country decreased slightly, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - **Palm Oil**: Yesterday, Malaysian palm oil rose. The supply side in Malaysia is entering the seasonal production - cut period, and the demand side has an expected increase in exports in September. It is expected to enter a high - level oscillation, and later attention should be paid to the production in the producing areas and biodiesel policies [5][6]. - **Egg**: The 2511 contract of eggs fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price was stable. After the double - festival stocking is coming to an end, the egg price is expected to oscillate and weaken, and the futures are also expected to be weak [6]. - **Pig**: The 2511 contract of pigs rebounded, and the spot price fell. The supply is abundant, and the pig price before the festival is expected to be weak. The futures price is expected to run weakly due to the loose supply [6]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: Yesterday, the main contract of LLDPE rebounded slightly. The supply pressure in the domestic market has increased but is slowing down, and the demand has improved in the downstream agricultural film season. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short on rallies or do reverse spread trading [7]. - **PVC**: The V01 contract closed at 4904 yuan/ton. The supply - demand is in a weak balance. It is recommended to short on rallies [7]. - **Glass**: The FG01 contract closed at 1270 yuan/ton. The price rose driven by expectations. The supply - demand has little change, and the inventory has decreased. It is recommended to go long on dips [7][8]. - **PP**: Yesterday, the main contract of PP rebounded slightly. The supply pressure has increased, and the demand has recovered in the peak season. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short on rallies or do reverse spread trading [8]. - **Crude Oil**: Yesterday, oil prices rose again. The supply pressure is gradually increasing, and the demand is weakening. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the short - selling opportunity of the SC main contract around 500 yuan/ton [8]. - **Styrene**: Yesterday, the main contract of EB oscillated slightly. The supply - demand is weak in the short term, and the price is expected to oscillate. In the long - term, it is recommended to short on rallies or do reverse spread trading as the supply gradually recovers [8]. - **Soda Ash**: The sa01 contract closed at 1300 yuan/ton. The inventory of soda ash continued to decline, and the price rose slightly. The supply side is expected to tighten, and it is recommended to go long [8][9]. - **Caustic Soda**: The sh01 contract closed at 2529 yuan/ton. The purchase price of the main downstream of caustic soda decreased again. It is recommended to wait and see [9].

Group 1 - Domestic commodity futures market experienced widespread increases on September 25, with major contracts such as shipping European routes, international copper, and glass rising over 3% [1][2] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1468.33 points, up 13.64 points or 0.94% from the previous trading day [1] - The shipping European route continued its upward trend, with the main contract closing up 3.99%, driven by good cargo collection and stable current cabin quotes [2] Group 2 - International copper and Shanghai copper futures opened higher, reaching a six-month high, with respective increases of 3.58% and 3.40% due to supply disruptions from Freeport's Grasberg mine [3] - The suspension of operations at Grasberg is expected to tighten global copper supply further, with forecasts indicating a continued decline in supply growth through 2026 [3] - Other commodities such as glass, rapeseed oil, and coke also saw significant price increases, with glass futures closing up 3.08% [3] Group 3 - Precious metals experienced slight adjustments, with Shanghai gold down 0.45% while silver saw a minor increase, influenced by profit-taking and a lack of new stimuli [4] - Long-term bullish factors for gold remain, including rising U.S. debt and ongoing central bank purchases, despite short-term fluctuations [4] - Natural rubber and No. 20 rubber contracts saw slight declines, with limited impact from weather disturbances, as the Southeast Asian production season is expected to increase output [5]

2025年09月25日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：短期有反弹，中期仍偏弱 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：短期有反弹，中期仍偏弱 | 2 | | MEG：1-5月差反套 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 5 | | 合成橡胶：短期震荡运行 | 7 | | 沥青：跟随原油小幅偏强 | 9 | | LLDPE：中期震荡行情 | 11 | | PP：低位追空需谨慎，中期或是震荡市 | 12 | | 烧碱：弱现实压制，但预期不悲观 | 13 | | 纸浆：宽幅震荡 | 15 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇：短期震荡运行 | 18 | | 尿素：节前步入震荡格局 | 20 | | 苯乙烯：中期偏空 | 22 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 23 | | LPG：短期震荡运行 | 24 | | 丙烯：短期高位偏弱 | 24 | | PVC：宽幅震荡 | 27 | | 燃料油：强势延续，价格重心持续反弹 | 28 | | 低硫燃料油：被动上涨，外盘现货高低硫价差继续收窄 | 28 | | 集运指数（欧线）：短期波动放大 | 29 | | 短纤 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market on September 24 saw more gains than losses, with the glass main contract rising over 4% and fuel oil main contract increasing over 3% [1][2] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1456.69 points, up 9.04 points or 0.62% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Glass Industry Insights - The glass main contract experienced a significant increase, with a peak rise of nearly 8% during the trading session, ultimately closing with a 4.74% gain [2] - Market sentiment was driven by rumors of a meeting among glass enterprises and the issuance of a growth stabilization plan for the building materials industry by multiple government departments [2] - Despite the positive sentiment, the glass industry is still at the bottom of the real estate cycle, with weak demand and a need for capacity reduction to address oversupply [2] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - Domestic oil-related products rose across the board, with SC crude oil and fuel oil main contracts recording gains of over 1% and 3%, respectively [3] - Concerns over global supply tightening were heightened by recent drone attacks on Russian refineries and potential diesel export bans by the Russian government [3] - Short-term price trends for fuel oil are expected to remain strong due to cost support and recovering demand, although a potential decline in purchasing sentiment is anticipated post-holiday [3] Group 4: Other Commodity Movements - The shipping European line saw a rise, with the main contract increasing over 2% after peaking at over 6% during the session [4] - Oilseed and oil products remained weak, with the main contracts for soybean meal and oil experiencing slight declines, while palm oil showed a small increase due to tightening supply expectations [5][6] - Palm oil prices may rise by approximately 15% as the seasonal high production cycle ends, and potential shortages could arise if Indonesia implements specific policies [6]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-09-24 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围增强，甲醇震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：目前国内外甲醇供应压力依然偏大，下游需求处在淡季阶段，港口累库显著增加，供需 结构偏弱导致价格重心面临下移。随着前期甲醇期价持续走低以后，利空情绪有所释放。本周二夜 盘国内甲醇期货 2601 合约维 ...

人民财讯9月24日电，国内商品期货早盘开盘涨多跌少。燃料油涨约4%，原油、焦煤等涨逾1%，棉 纱、淀粉等小幅上涨；菜粕、豆粕等跌超1%，纯碱、纸浆等小幅下跌。 ...