投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 11 月 24 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：当前国内大豆供应宽松，豆粕库存仍处高位。同时，油厂开机率维持高位，成本支撑松动， 市场聚焦于中国采购美豆的实际步伐。尽管有消息称中国承诺采购，但市场对于年底前完成 1200 万 吨的采购目标存疑，加上南美大豆丰产预期强劲，美豆期价止步不前对国内豆类成本支撑减弱。市场 面临供给宽松和需求不振的双重压力。虽然盘面买油卖粕的套利盘延续平仓，为豆粕期价提供了暂时 支撑。短期 3000 元/吨已成为关键的心理和技术支撑位，如果有效跌破，下行空间将被打开。 专业研究·创造价 ...

软商品日报 2025/11/21 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和 建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形 下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使 独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Calculated based on the closing prices of adjacent trading days, the Nanhua Composite Index fell by -0.76% today. All sector indices declined, with the Nanhua Precious Metals Index having the largest decline of -1.77% and the Nanhua Black Index having the smallest decline of -0.24%. Among the theme indices, only the Building Materials Index rose by 0.11%, while the rest declined. The Energy Index had the largest decline of -1.46%, and the Oilseeds and Oils Index had the smallest decline of -0.24%. Among the single - variety indices of commodity futures, the Starch Index had the largest increase of 1.58%, and the Lithium Carbonate Index had the largest decline of -8.04% [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data of Nanhua Commodity Indices - **Composite Index**: The Nanhua Composite Index (NHCI) closed at 2502.56 today, down 19.21 points or -0.76% from yesterday. The annualized return was -0.99%, the annualized volatility was 11.59%, and the Sharpe ratio was -0.09 [3] - **Precious Metals Index**: The Nanhua Precious Metals Index (NHPMI) closed at 3456.21, down 23.43 points or -0.67% with an annualized return of -8.42% and an annualized volatility of 13.82% [3] - **Industrial Products Index**: The Nanhua Industrial Products Index (NHII) showed a decline, but specific data was not fully presented [3] - **Metal Index**: The Nanhua Metal Index (NHMI) closed at 6404.75, down 41.93 points or -0.65% with an annualized return of 0.68% and an annualized volatility of 12.06% [3] - **Energy and Chemical Index**: The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index (NHECI) closed at 1733.12, down 19.68 points or -1.12% with an annualized return of 4.37% and an annualized volatility of 12.47% [3] - **Black Index**: The Nanhua Black Index (NHFI) closed at 2482.40, down 5.91 points or -0.24% with an annualized return of -8.33% and an annualized volatility of 16.58% [3] - **Agricultural Products Index**: The Nanhua Agricultural Products Index (NHAI) had an annualized return of 9.76% [3] - **Mini - Composite Index**: The Nanhua Mini - Composite Index (NHCIMi) closed at 1158.20, down 8.90 points or -0.76% with an annualized return of -1.09% [3] - **Energy Index**: The Nanhua Energy Index (NHEI) closed at 992.08, down 14.69 points or -1.46% with an annualized return of -2.22% and an annualized volatility of 20.36% [3] - **Petrochemical Index**: The Nanhua Petrochemical Index (NHPCI) closed at 875.55, down 7.83 points or -0.89% with an annualized return of -2.77% and an annualized volatility of 10.07% [3] - **Fine Chemical Index**: The Nanhua Fine Chemical Index (NHCCI) closed at 904.67, down 0.56% with an annualized return of -4.48% and an annualized volatility of 9.56% [3] - **Black Raw Materials Index**: The Nanhua Black Raw Materials Index (NHFM) closed at 1045.83, down 5.77 points or -0.55% with an annualized return of -0.54% and an annualized volatility of 15.66% [3] - **Building Materials Index**: The Nanhua Building Materials Index (NHBMI) closed at 687.69, up 0.75 points or 0.11% with an annualized return of -2.58% and an annualized volatility of 11.47% [3] - **Oilseeds and Oils Index**: The Nanhua Oilseeds and Oils Index (NHOOI) closed at 1233.00, down 2.94 points or -0.24% with an annualized return of -1.39% and an annualized volatility of 11.70% [3] - **Economic Crops Index**: The Nanhua Economic Crops Index (NHAECI) closed at 906.22, down 0.44% with an annualized return of 0.62% and an annualized volatility of 7.44% [3] 3.2 Contribution of Each Variety's Daily Increase or Decrease to Index Increase or Decrease - **Nanhua Composite Index**: Positive contributors included Soda Ash (3.78%), Rebar (2.08%), etc.; negative contributors included Palm Oil (-11.35%), Cotton (-56.86%), etc [3] - **Nanhua Mini - Composite Index**: Positive contributors included Soda Ash (7.46%); negative contributors included Palm Oil (-0.39%), Natural Rubber (-0.39%), etc [3] - **Nanhua Industrial Products Index**: Positive contributors included First - class Company (5.51%); negative contributors included Natural Rubber (-0.39%), PVC (-0.77%), etc [3] - **Nanhua Metal Index**: Positive contributors included Rebar (3.80%); negative contributors included Tin (-5.58%), Aluminum (-5.58%), etc [3] - **Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index**: Positive contributors included Pure Alkali (6.37%); negative contributors included Natural Rubber (-1.96%), Fuel Oil (-8.34%), etc [3] - **Nanhua Agricultural Products Index**: Positive contributors included Rapeseed Oil (4.23%), Corn (4.76%); negative contributors included Palm Oil (-5.78%), Cotton (-21.32%), etc [3] 3.3 Single - Variety Index Daily Increase or Decrease - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Pure Sand increased by 1.04%, Synthetic Ammonia decreased by 0.20%, etc [3] - **Black Sector**: Coal decreased by 1.15% [4] - **Agricultural Products Sector**: Starch increased by 1.58%, Corn increased by 1.25%, while Live Pigs decreased by 0.79%, etc [6] - **Other**: Orange - like products decreased by -0.64%, Low - magnetic fuel oil decreased by -1.94% [9]

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-11-21 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧延续，沪胶震荡企稳 | | 合成胶 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧延续，合成胶震荡企稳 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：随着国内云南和海南天胶产区逐渐临近停割季，未来国产全乳胶供应预期逐渐下降 ...

基本金属 | 招商评论 | 市场表现：昨日铜价震荡下行。 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 基本面：昨日美联储官员提示通胀风险和私人信贷风险，十二月降息预期到 30%附近，美股中 AI | 相关股票大 | | | | | 跌，市场风险偏好下降。供应端，铜矿偏紧格局不变。昨日智利国家铜业给韩国报价年度电解铜升水 | 330 | 美 | | | 铜 | 金，大幅上涨，说明市场认为明年电铜供需紧张。需求端，国内华东华南平水铜现货升水 40 元和 15 | | | 元。精 | | | 废价差 3000 元。 | | | | | | 交易策略：宏观驱动不明，建议观望。 | | | | | | 风险提示：全球需求不及预期。仅供参考。 市场表现：昨日电解铝主力合约收盘价较前一交易日-0.19%，收于 21530 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差-40 | 元/吨，LME | | | | | 价格 2812.5 美元/吨。 | | | | | 铝 | 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产能小幅增加。需求方面，周度铝材开工率小幅上升。 | | | | | | 交易策略 ...

早盘速递 2025/11/20 5. 据SMM消息，华东地区某大中型再生铅冶炼企业因公司污水处理站MVR设施拆除后尚未完成改造、安装，不符合《危险废物 经营许可证管理办法》第五条第（四）款相关规定，当地生态环境厅决定不予许可危险废物经营许可证换证申请。 重点关注 尿素、焦煤、碳酸锂、工业硅、原油 夜盘表现 板块表现 -1.50 -1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 板块涨跌幅（%） -10.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% -3.50% -3.00% -2.50% -2.00% -1.50% -1.00% -0.50% 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 商品期货主力合约夜盘涨跌幅 涨跌幅 增仓比率（右轴） 非金属建材, 3.38% 贵金属, 29.01% 油脂油料, 9.93% 有色, 23.10% 软商品, 2.67% 煤焦钢矿, 12.74% 能源, 2.96% 化工, 11.02% 谷物, 1.22% 农副产品, 3.97% 商 品 各 板 块 资 金 占 比 第 ...

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market showed mixed results in early trading on November 20, with the main contracts experiencing varying degrees of price changes [1] - Coking coal saw a narrowing decline of 2.74%, having previously dropped over 4% during the session [1] - Lithium carbonate increased by over 3%, while pure benzene rose by more than 2%, and other commodities like styrene, apples, and silver also saw gains exceeding 1% [1] Group 2 - On the downside, coking coal and low-sulfur fuel oil fell by more than 2%, while glass, soda ash, pulp, crude oil, and industrial silicon experienced declines exceeding 1% [1] - Other commodities such as peanuts, rubber, logs, coking coal, and iron ore showed slight decreases [1]

每经AI快讯，11月19日，国内商品期货夜盘开盘涨跌不一，沪金涨1.23%，沪银涨2.76%，沪铜涨 0.66%，铁矿涨0.06%，螺纹跌0.52%，焦煤跌近1%，玻璃跌0.69%，原油跌1.55%。 ...

人民财讯11月19日电，国内商品期货夜盘开盘涨跌不一，沪金涨1.23%，沪银涨2.76%；焦煤跌近1%， 玻璃跌0.69%，原油跌1.55%。 转自：证券时报 ...

Group 1: Sugar Core View The global sugar supply in the 2025/26 crushing season is expected to have a surplus of 163,000 tons, mainly due to the increase in sugar cane crushing volume and sugar production in Brazil and significant production growth in Indian sugar mills. In China, the import of sugar in October was 750,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 213,200 tons. Coupled with the increase in new sugar supply from sugar mills starting operations, the spot price quotes have generally been lowered. Although the control of syrup imports and high costs support the price, the supply pressure dominates the short-term weakness [3]. Price and Spread - **Futures Prices**: On November 19, 2025, SR01 closed at 5381 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.48% and a weekly decline of 1.77%. Other contracts also showed varying degrees of decline [4]. - **Price Spreads**: SR01 - 05 was 50 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day and 19 yuan from the previous week [4]. Basis and Import Prices - **Basis**: On November 18, 2025, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was 353 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan from the previous day and 73 yuan from the previous week. The basis of Kunming - SR01 was 193 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan from the previous day and 38 yuan from the previous week [8]. - **Import Prices**: On November 19, 2025, the in - quota price of Brazilian sugar imports was 4060 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan from the previous day and up 92 yuan from the previous week. The out - of - quota price was 5143 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan from the previous day and up 120 yuan from the previous week [11]. Group 2: Cotton Core View Currently, the supply pressure of domestic cotton is gradually increasing, and there is still hedging pressure around 13,600 - 13,800 yuan/ton. The demand side performance is currently average, and the upward momentum of cotton prices is lacking in the short term. The cotton price may fluctuate weakly in the short term, but the downstream still has resilience, waiting for macroeconomic improvement [13]. Price and Spread - **Futures Prices**: On November 19, 2025, Cotton 01 closed at 13,485 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan with a daily increase of 0.67%. Cotton 05 closed at 13,490 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan with a daily increase of 0.63% [14]. - **Price Spreads**: The cotton basis was 1394 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spread between Cotton 01 - 05 was - 10 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [14]. Group 3: Apples Core View The ground trading of new - season late Fuji apples is gradually ending, and the trading is concentrated in Shandong and Shanxi production areas. The warehousing work is in the later stage. In ground trading, the apples in Qixia and Zhaoyuan in Shandong have not all been harvested, there are many merchants, and the striped apples are on the market. Fruit farmers mostly sell at the market price. In terms of warehousing progress, cold storages in Gansu have started to ship, the warehousing in Shaanxi is coming to an end, and the fruit farmers' apples in the western townships of Qixia in Shandong are still being warehoused. Shandong apples will gradually be shipped out next week, and small apples have sold well recently [17]. Price and Spread - **Futures Prices**: On November 19, 2025, AP01 closed at 9375 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.61% and a weekly increase of 1.82%. AP03 closed at 9208 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.6% and a weekly increase of 1.3% [18]. - **Price Spreads**: The spread of AP01 - 05 was 77 yuan/ton, down 35.83% from the previous day and 228.33% from the previous week. The main contract basis was - 538 yuan/ton, down 3.76% from the previous day and up 49.86% from the previous week [19]. Group 4: Red Dates Core View The new - season red dates are about to enter the concentrated harvesting stage. Currently, the new - season yield is still the core point of market game. At present, there is indeed a yield reduction in the southern Xinjiang production area, but the reduction range is difficult to determine. Affected by factors such as moisture and single - date weight, farmers' estimates of the yield are also prone to deviations. In the short term, the red date price fluctuates greatly under the capital game, but under the yield reduction, as the purchase season begins, the downward space is expected to be limited for the time being. Pay attention to the subsequent commercial rate and purchase situation of new dates [25]. Price and Spread - **Price Spreads**: The red date futures spreads (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) show different trends over time, and the data from 2021 - 2025 are presented in the report [26][28].