Group 1 - Domestic commodity futures closed mixed on August 22, with fuel oil and caustic soda rising over 2% [1] - Industrial silicon, crude oil, styrene, and soda ash increased by more than 1% [1] - On the downside, lithium carbonate fell over 4%, while red dates dropped more than 2% [1] - Container shipping on the European route, rapeseed meal, soybean meal, and polysilicon all declined by over 1% [1]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货动力煤早报（2025 年 8 月 22 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 观点参考 观点参考 品种：动力煤现货 日内观点： 中期观点： 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：本周，国内动力煤价格维持强势运行，截至 8 月 14 日，秦皇岛港 5500K 动力煤报价 692 元/吨，周环比上涨 18 元/吨，接近 700 元关口。本周以来，国内高温天气蔓延，第三产业和 居民用电需求良好，坑口、港口拉运积极性较高，煤价持续走强。供应方面，8 月 15 日统计局公 布 7 月原煤产量为 3.8 亿吨，同比下降 3.8%，日均产量 122 ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core View - The report suggests that due to supply disruptions and positive demand, the upward - trending and volatile situation of lithium carbonate may continue [1] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: For the 2509 contract, the closing price is 89,300, the volume is 50,353, and the open interest is 81,117. For the 2511 contract, the closing price is 89,240, the volume is 1,036,328, and the open interest is 421,106 [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt volume is 23,555 hands [1] - **Basis**: The basis between spot and 2509 is - 4,700, between spot and 2511 is - 4,640, between 2509 and 2511 is 60, between electric carbon and industrial carbon is 2,300, and between spot and CIF is 14,962 [1] - **Raw Materials**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) is 978, and the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) is 2,185 [1] - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 84,600, industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 82,300, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) is 81,710, etc [1] - **Related Products for Consumption**: The price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) is 114,230, ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) is 117,590, etc [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price is 84,794 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2,069 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 84,600 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 82,300 yuan/ton, both increasing by 1,900 yuan/ton compared to the previous workday [2] - India plans to reduce the goods and services tax for entry - level two - wheelers, small cars, and hybrid passenger cars before October [2] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly, with an intraday view of being strongly volatile and a medium - term view of being volatile [1][5][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term and Intraday Views**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: strongly volatile, with a reference view of running strongly [1][5] - **Core Logic**: As the previous macro - driving force weakens, the rubber market returns to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The Southeast Asian rubber - producing areas are in the peak tapping season, and domestic production areas are also releasing new rubber output, resulting in high supply pressure. However, the domestic heavy - truck sales data and new - car production and sales data for August are better than expected, showing a significant year - on - year increase. With the rubber market entering a stage of divergence between bulls and bears, the night session of the Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract on Friday maintained a volatile and stable trend, with the futures price up 0.25% to 15,820 yuan/ton. It is expected that the Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract may maintain a strongly volatile trend on Monday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term and Intraday Views**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: strongly volatile, with a reference view of running strongly [1][7] - **Core Logic**: As the previous macro - driving force weakens, the synthetic rubber market returns to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The operating load of domestic synthetic rubber plants is stable, and supply pressure remains. The domestic heavy - truck sales data and new - car production and sales data for August are better than expected, showing a significant year - on - year increase. With the synthetic rubber market entering a stage of divergence between bulls and bears, the night session of the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2510 contract on Friday maintained a volatile and stable trend, with the futures price up 0.77% to 11,800 yuan/ton. It is expected that the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2510 contract may maintain a strongly volatile trend on Monday [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract and synthetic rubber futures 2510 contract are expected to run strongly with a short - term and intraday view of oscillating strongly and a medium - term view of oscillating [1][5][7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Market Situation**: With the weakening of the previous macro - driving force, the rubber market has returned to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The supply pressure is high as Southeast Asian and domestic rubber - producing areas are in the peak cutting season. However, the August domestic heavy - truck sales data and new - car production and sales data released recently are better than market expectations, showing a significant year - on - year increase. On Wednesday night, the 2601 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures maintained an oscillating and stable trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.06% to 15,875 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and strong trend on Thursday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Market Situation**: With the weakening of the previous macro - driving force, synthetic rubber has returned to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The domestic synthetic rubber plant load is stable, and the supply pressure remains. But the August domestic heavy - truck sales data and new - car production and sales data are better than expected, showing a significant year - on - year increase. On Wednesday night, the 2510 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures maintained an oscillating and stable trend, with the futures price slightly falling 0.34% to 11,815 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and strong trend on Thursday [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the price of thermal coal will continue to strengthen this summer due to the resonance of multiple positive factors, including the peak season and anti - involution policy disturbances [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Performance - As of August 7, the quotation of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 674 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 22 yuan/ton, and the increase was larger than last week. Since the low point in late June, the ex - warehouse price of 5500K thermal coal at the port has increased by 64 yuan/ton, a rise of 10.5% [4]. 3.2 Supply and Demand - This week, the domestic thermal coal supply ran smoothly. The peak season of thermal coal demand performed well. The capacity utilization rate of non - power cement clinker was significantly higher than the same period last year. The anti - involution rectification work in the coal industry boosted market sentiment. The downstream power plants' demand for replenishing inventory continued to be released, and the enthusiasm of traders for hauling was high [4]. 3.3 Inventory - As of August 7, the total inventory of thermal coal at 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 2.4819 billion tons, basically flat week - on - week and 22,400 tons lower than the same period last year. Since this summer, the coal inventory at northern ports has decreased by 834,400 tons from the inventory peak in May, and the inventory in the intermediate link has been effectively reduced, supporting the coal price to stop falling and rebound [4].

Group 1 - Domestic commodity futures closed mixed on August 13, with notable increases in certain agricultural products [1] - Canola oil rose over 3%, while soybean meal, soybean oil, and canola meal increased by more than 2% [1] - Other commodities such as soybean one, soybean oil, silver, cotton, palm oil, and white sugar saw gains exceeding 1% [1] Group 2 - On the downside, the shipping index for Europe fell by over 5% [1] - Industrial silicon and coking coal dropped more than 3% [1] - Coking coal, polysilicon, and other commodities like logs, glass, fuel oil, and live pigs experienced declines exceeding 1% [1]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-08-13 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 需求好于预期，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 需求好于预期，合成胶震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：随着前期宏观驱动力量减弱，胶市重新回归由偏弱供需结构主 ...

Group 1: Market Performance Summary - Today, the Nanhua Composite Index rose 0.82% based on the closing prices of adjacent trading days [1] - Among the sector indices, only the Nanhua Precious Metals Index fell by -0.36%, while the rest rose. The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index had the largest increase of 1.31%, and the Nanhua Metal Index had the smallest increase of 0.69% [1] - All theme indices rose. The Black Raw Materials Index had the largest increase of 1.79%, and the Coal - Chemical Index had the smallest increase of 0.47% [1] - In the commodity futures single - variety indices, the Soda Ash index had the largest increase of 4.76%, and the Industrial Silicon index had the largest decrease of -1.78% [1] Group 2: Index Data - Index data includes various indices such as the Energy Index NHEI, Petroleum and Chemical Index NHPCl, Coal - Chemical Index NHCCl, etc., with their respective closing prices, previous closing prices, and annualized yields [2] Group 3: Single - Variety Index Yields and Fluctuations - There is data on the yields and fluctuations of major single - variety indices, though specific details are not fully clear from the text [2] Group 4: Industry Chain and Variety Performance - In the energy and chemical sector, specific varieties' single - variety index daily price changes are given, like the yields of some products in the energy and chemical industry chain [2] - In the black sector, there is a schematic diagram of the industrial chain of some varieties and their single - variety index daily price changes [7] - In the agricultural products sector, the single - variety index daily price changes of some varieties such as palm oil, rapeseed oil, etc. are presented. For example, palm oil rose 1.71%, rapeseed oil rose 2.26%, and rapeseed fell -0.70% [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of industrial silicon show an increase in both supply and demand, with the overall commodity sentiment remaining strong, leading to a bullish trend in the industrial silicon futures market. For polysilicon, the spot price is relatively stable, but there is significant pressure on inventory accumulation due to a large increase in supply in August and average consumer demand. The futures market is greatly affected by anti - involution policies, and in the medium to long term, it is suitable to buy on dips [3][6] Summary by Related Content Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On August 11, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated upwards. The main contract 2511 opened at 8,760 yuan/ton and closed at 9,000 yuan/ton, a change of 415 yuan/ton (4.83%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 at the close was 271,943 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 50,760 lots, a change of 420 lots from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon rose slightly, with prices in some regions increasing and remaining stable in Kunming. The price of 97 - silicon also remained stable [1] - The consumption side: The quoted price of silicone DMC was 1,1500 - 12,500 (- 150) yuan/ton. The silicone price showed a slight decline, with limited support from the consumer side. The domestic DMC price showed a differentiated trend this week, with some monomer plants offering lower prices to stimulate downstream bottom - up stocking, while others maintained higher prices due to previous orders. The main reason for the price decline was weak downstream demand [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On August 11, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures rose significantly, opening at 50,600 yuan/ton and closing at 52,985 yuan/ton, a 6.34% change from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 139,739 lots (137,596 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 592,822 lots. The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased, and the weekly production of polysilicon and silicon wafers also increased [4] - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable. After a polysilicon meeting last week, the market is now focusing on downstream and power station meetings this week, and the current production reduction situation of upstream enterprises is undetermined [4][5] Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range trading; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None. In the medium to long term, it is suitable to buy on dips [6]