Hot News - Two large aluminum plants in Bahrain and the UAE were attacked by Iran, which may impact the global aluminum supply chain as the Middle East accounts for about 10% of global aluminum exports [2] - From April 22 (the night trading session on April 21), QFIIs and RQFIIs can trade 20 - rubber and international copper option contracts [2] - Houthi rebels in Yemen launched military operations against Israel, and the military actions will continue, exposing the Bab - el - Mandeb Strait to risks [2] - Thailand's Prime Minister said that Thai oil tankers can safely pass through the Strait of Hormuz according to the agreement with Iran [2] - Pakistan's Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister said that Pakistan is facilitating peace talks between the US and Iran, and four foreign ministers' meeting decided to form a committee to work out a conflict - resolution plan [3] Plate Performance Key Focus - Urea, lithium carbonate, low - sulfur fuel oil, crude oil, PP [4] Night - trading Performance - Non - metallic building materials rose 2.63%, precious metals 24.72%, oilseeds and fats 8.99%, soft commodities 2.57%, non - ferrous metals 23.16%, coal, coke and steel ore 10.04%, energy 7.77%, chemicals 16.03%, grains 1.08%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.00% [4] Plate Position - The chart shows the position changes of commodity futures plates in the past five days from March 23 to March 27, 2026 [5] Performance of Major Asset Classes Equity - Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.63% daily, - 5.99% monthly, - 1.39% annually; S&P 500 fell - 1.67% daily, - 7.41% monthly, - 6.96% annually, etc. [6] Fixed - income - 10 - year Treasury bond futures fell - 0.01% daily, - 0.15% monthly, 0.35% annually; 5 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.03% daily, 0% monthly, 0.23% annually [6] Commodity - CRB Commodity Index rose 1.93% daily, 17.99% monthly, 23.47% annually; WTI crude oil rose 6.37% daily, 49.49% monthly, 74.78% annually [6] Others - US Dollar Index rose 0.26% daily, 2.59% monthly, 1.94% annually; CBOE Volatility Index rose 13.16% daily, 56.34% monthly, 107.69% annually [6] Stock Market Risk Preference and Major Commodity Trends - The document presents the trends of BDI, CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, London spot silver, LME copper, etc., as well as the ratios of gold - to - oil and copper - to - gold, and risk premiums of stocks [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Cotton is in a short - term oscillation range due to limited supply - demand drivers, with sufficient spot supply, increased basis order transactions, limited downstream market recovery, and cautious restocking by spinning mills [1] - Sugar is in a stage of loose supply - demand, especially in the international raw sugar market. After the overnight rise in the external raw sugar market, import profits have shrunk. It is recommended to adopt a low - buying strategy as the price has strong support below but limited upward drive [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - In February 2026, China's cotton imports were about 170,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 44.1%. From January to February, the cumulative cotton imports were about 370,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 41%. In February, China's imported cotton yarn was about 130,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.1%. From January to February, the cumulative imported cotton yarn was about 290,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 40.2% [1] - Supported by factors such as the high positive spread between domestic and foreign cotton prices, RMB appreciation, recovery of export orders for traceable cotton products, and the adjustment of the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton yarn from negative to slightly positive, the industry expected the year - on - year increase in China's cotton and cotton yarn imports from January to February 2026, but the growth rate was significantly higher [1] - Spot supply is sufficient, basis order transactions increase, the downstream market recovery is limited, demand needs further verification, and spinning mills are cautious about restocking, maintaining the strategy of buying on dips [1] Sugar - From January to February 2026, China's imports of syrup and white sugar premix powder (tax numbers 1702.90, 2106.906) were 83,000 tons and 59,200 tons respectively, with year - on - year increases of 7,500 tons and 26,600 tons. The total import volume was 142,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 34,100 tons, or 31% [2] - In the 2025/26 sugar - making season (October - February), China's total imports of syrup and white sugar premix powder (tax numbers 1702.90, 2106.906) were 442,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 305,400 tons, or 41% [2] - The estimated cost of processing Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,261 yuan/ton, and the estimated cost of processing Brazilian sugar outside the quota is 5,421 yuan/ton. Compared with the spot price of white sugar in Rizhao, the estimated profit of processing Brazilian sugar within the quota is 1,379 yuan/ton, and the estimated profit of processing Brazilian sugar outside the quota is 219 yuan/ton [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, the near - end TA partial devices reduced their loads, the start - up rate decreased month - on - month, the polyester load increased month - on - month, the inventory accumulated month - on - month, the basis strengthened slightly, and the spot processing fee improved month - on - month. The domestic PX devices reduced their loads, and overseas devices also had maintenance and load reduction, resulting in a contraction of PXN, a weakening of disproportionation and isomerization benefits, and a month - on - month decrease in the aromatics price difference between the US and Asia. In the future, the load reduction of raw material PX will further increase, mainly due to the refinery load reduction affected by raw materials, and the de - stocking speed may accelerate with a low static valuation. TA itself also has partial load reduction, but the feedback of the downstream polyester load increase is slow, and it has not entered the de - stocking stage. If the conflict continues, the production reduction is expected to be transmitted to itself. Short - term wait - and - see, long - term multi - allocation, and do long TA processing fees on dips, while paying attention to the terminal load feedback [2]. - For MEG, the domestic oil - based production reduced its load, and some coal - based devices had maintenance, resulting in an accelerated decline in the start - up rate. With the decrease in arrivals, the port inventory began to be de - stocked. The overall forecast of arrivals during the week was low, the basis was weak, and the benefits of coal - based and ethane - based production improved significantly. In the future, under the continuation of the conflict, the arrivals of EG are expected to decline rapidly, and some domestic devices may also have preventive load reduction. The short - term de - stocking speed will accelerate, and the long - term balance sheet has high uncertainty. Short - term wait - and - see [9]. - For short - fiber, the near - end short - fiber devices had both maintenance and restart, the start - up rate decreased slightly to 83.4%, the holiday performance was weaker month - on - month, the inventory accumulated slightly, and the spot processing fee was acceptable. On the demand side, the start - up rate of the yarn - making end still increased, the raw material inventory was depleted, and the finished product inventory remained stable month - on - month, but the benefits weakened. In the future, with the continuous strengthening of raw materials, the load increase of short - fiber itself has begun to slow down. Although the current processing fee is acceptable, the future start - up rate may also be passively restricted. At the same time, the downstream pressure is expected to increase, and production reduction may gradually increase. After the price difference between raw and recycled materials has strengthened significantly, the substitution effect is obvious, and the current valuation is relatively neutral under the situation of weak supply and demand [9]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs PTA - **Price and Index Changes**: From March 13 to March 19, 2026, the price of crude oil changed from $103.1 to $108.7, the price of Japanese PX CFR changed from $1060 to $1161, the domestic PTA spot price changed from 6930 to 7551, the POY 150D/48F price changed from 9240 to 9130, the naphtha cracking spread changed from 303.73 to 252.15, the PX processing spread changed from 214.0 to 103.0, the PTA processing spread changed from 239 to 255, the polyester profit changed from 600 to 370, the PTA balance load remained at 76.6%, the PTA load remained at 77.3%, the PTA warehouse receipts + valid forecasts remained at 145657, the TA basis changed from - 25 to - 80, and the sales ratio changed from 0.10 to 0.25 [2]. - **Device Changes**: Fuhai Chuang's 4.5 million - ton device reduced its load, and Fujian Baihong's 2.5 million - ton device reduced its load [2]. MEG - **Price and Index Changes**: From March 13 to March 19, 2026, the price of MEG in East China changed from 4745 to 5143, the price of MEG far - month changed from 73.7 to 73.7, the price of coal - based MEG changed from 1150 to 1280, the profit of MEG changed from 572 to 625, the load of non - coal - based MEG remained at 66.4%, the load of MEG remained at 84.4%, the port inventory of MEG changed from 63 to 1280, and the basis of MEG was around - 72 for 05 [9]. - **Device Changes**: Shaanxi Coal's 1.8 million - ton partial capacity had maintenance, and Yulin Energy's 400,000 - ton device had maintenance [9]. Short - fiber - **Price and Index Changes**: The spot price was around 8391, and the market basis was around 06 - 0 [9]. - **Device Changes**: The near - end short - fiber devices had both maintenance and restart, and the start - up rate decreased slightly to 83.4% [9]. Rubber - **Price and Index Changes**: From March 1 to March 19, 2026, the price of Thai glue changed from 1990 to 1965, the price of Thai RSS3 changed from 16265 to 15900, the price of Thai raw film changed from 16800 to 16700, etc. The daily and weekly changes of various rubber - related prices and spreads are also provided in the table [8]. - **Strategy**: No specific strategy details are clearly stated in the given content. Benzene - related Products - **Price and Index Changes**: From March 13 to March 19, 2026, the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) changed from 1150 to 1280, the price of pure benzene (CFR China) changed from 1080 to 1055, the price of pure benzene (East China) changed from 8205 to 8350, etc. The daily changes of various product prices and profits are also provided in the table [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is in a tug - of - war between short - term supply rhythm concerns and the long - term reality of a global soybean supply surplus, with prices in a wide - range oscillation. The risk premium driven by short - term concerns is not solid, and once the Brazilian logistics bottleneck eases, the premium will decline [5]. - The palm oil market is in a fierce game between strong expectations and weak reality. Short - term prices will maintain a wide - range oscillation, and the trend highly depends on factors such as the persistence of crude oil prices, the implementation of the US RVO policy, and the domestic inventory depletion rhythm [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs For Soybean Meal (M) - Short - term, Medium - term, and Daily View: All are considered "oscillating on the strong side". The core logic is that the uncertainty on the supply side makes the near - month contracts the focus of multi - empty gaming. The market is switching from trading short - term risks to returning to fundamental reality. The price is affected by the tension between short - term supply rhythm concerns and the long - term global soybean supply surplus [5][6]. - Influential Factors: Imported soybean cost, arrival rhythm of imports, oil mill operation rhythm, and inventory pressure [6]. For Palm Oil (P) - Short - term, Medium - term, and Daily View: All are considered "oscillating on the strong side". The core logic is the conflict between strong expectations and weak reality. Geopolitical conflicts and market expectations about Malaysian palm oil production and exports support the price, while high domestic inventory and weak consumption drag it down. The price will maintain a wide - range oscillation [7]. - Influential Factors: Energy attributes, Indonesian biodiesel policy expectations, cost increase, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [6][7]. For Soybean Oil (Y) - Short - term, Medium - term, and Daily View: All are considered "oscillating on the strong side". - Influential Factors: Energy attributes, US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, imported soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6].

Group 1: Report Summary - The Nanhua Composite Index fell by -0.39% based on the closing prices of adjacent trading days [1][3] - Among the sector indices, the Nanhua Black Index had the largest increase of 0.29%, and the Nanhua Metal Index had the smallest increase of 0.16%. The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index had the largest decline of -0.95%, and the Nanhua Precious Metal Index had the smallest decline of -0.11% [1][3] - Among the theme indices, the Black Raw Material Index had the largest increase of 0.4%, and the Building Materials Index had the smallest increase of 0.2%. The Petroleum and Chemical Index had the largest decline of -1.21%, and the Coal - based Chemical Index had the smallest decline of -0.35% [1][3] - Among the single - variety commodity futures indices, the Alumina index had the largest increase of 3.64%, and the Bottle Chip index had the largest decline of -3.64% [3] Group 2: Index Data Details - **Nanhua Composite Index (NHCI)**: Today's close is 3148.22, yesterday's close was 3160.68, with a decline of -12.46 (-0.39%), an annualized return rate of 25.67%, an annualized volatility of 14.96%, and a Sharpe ratio of 1.72 [3] - **Precious Metal Index (NHPMI)**: Today's close is 2177.32, yesterday's close was 2179.76, with a decline of -2.43 (-0.11%), an annualized return rate of 32.10%, and an annualized volatility of 3.04 [3] - **Industrial Products Index (MHII)**: Today's close is 4255.82, yesterday's close was 4273.97, with a decline of -18.15, an annualized return rate of 14.41%, an annualized volatility of 14.44%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.88 [3] - **Metal Index (NHMI)**: Today's close is 7265.62, yesterday's close was 7253.82, with an increase of 11.80 (0.16%), an annualized return rate of 14.30%, an annualized volatility of 16.37%, and a Sharpe ratio of 1.01 [3] - **Energy and Chemical Index (NHECI)**: Today's close is 2038.86, yesterday's close was 2058.32, with a decline of -19.46 (-0.95%), an annualized return rate of 15.55%, an annualized volatility of 21.12%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.74 [3] - **Non - ferrous Metal Index (NHNF)**: Today's close is 2060.97, yesterday's close was 2063.73, with a decline of -2.76 (-0.13%), an annualized return rate of 23.55% [3] - **Black Index (NHFI)**: Today's close is 2596.63, yesterday's close was 2589.01, with an increase of 7.63 (0.29%), an annualized return rate of 0.94%, an annualized volatility of 15.97%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.06 [3] - **Agricultural Products Index (NHAI)**: Today's close is 1111.86, yesterday's close was 1118.06, with a decline of -6.20 (-0.55%), an annualized return rate of 4.95%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.63 [3] - **Mini Composite Index (NHCIMi)**: Today's close is 1458.67, yesterday's close was 1464.74, with a decline of -6.07 (-0.41%), an annualized return rate of 9.33%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.39 [3] - **Energy Index (NHEl)**: Today's close is 1520.51, yesterday's close was 1537.10, with a decline of -16.58 (-1.08%), an annualized return rate of 18.39%, an annualized volatility of 50.69%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.36 [3] - **Petroleum and Chemical Index (NHPCl)**: Today's close is 1218.26, yesterday's close was 1233.23, with a decline of -14.97 (-1.21%), an annualized return rate of 29.41%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.41 [3] - **Coal - based Chemical Index (NHCCI)**: Today's close is 1189.71, yesterday's close was 1193.86, with a decline of -4.15 (-0.35%), an annualized return rate of 10.21%, an annualized volatility of 30.01%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.34 [3] - **Black Raw Material Index (NHFM)**: Today's close is 1098.17, yesterday's close was 1093.78, with an increase of 4.38 (0.40%), an annualized return rate of 1.09%, an annualized volatility of 17.89%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.06 [3] - **Building Materials Index (NHBMI)**: Today's close is 725.12, yesterday's close was 723.68, with an increase of 1.44 (0.20%), an annualized return rate of 14.05%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.12 [3] - **Oil and Oilseed Index (NHOOI)**: Today's close is 1353.10, yesterday's close was 1360.14, with a decline of -7.04 (-0.52%), an annualized return rate of 3.94%, an annualized volatility of 14.31%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.28 [3] - **Economic Crop Index (NHAECI)**: Today's close is 975.04, yesterday's close was 978.68, with a decline of -3.64 (-0.37%), an annualized return rate of 2.05%, an annualized volatility of 10.33%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.20 [3] Group 3: Contribution of Single - Variety Index to Index Fluctuations - For the Nanhua Composite Index, positive contributors include Iron Ore (27.52%), while negative contributors include Crude Oil (-27.44%) [3] - For the Nanhua Mini Composite Index, positive contributors include Iron Ore (11.00%), and negative contributors include Methanol (-9.18%) [3] - For the Nanhua Industrial Products Index, positive contributors include Iron Ore (17.57%), and negative contributors include Natural Rubber (-4.28%) [3] - For the Nanhua Metal Index, positive contributors include Iron Ore (8.28%), and negative contributors include Zinc (-8.92%) [3] - For the Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index, positive contributors include PVC (3.29%), and negative contributors include Natural Rubber (-2.20%) [3] - For the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index, positive contributors include Urea (4.45%), and negative contributors include Palm Oil (-3.93%) [3]

Group 1: Sugar Core View - Current fundamental factors provide upward momentum for sugar, but the expected global production surplus has decreased. International raw sugar is still pressured by the previous support level of 14 cents, so the rebound space is limited [3] Sugar Futures Prices and Spreads - SR01 closed at 5503 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.73% and a weekly increase of 0.71%; SR03 closed at 5345 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.56% and a weekly increase of 1.17%; SR05 closed at 5371 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.77% and a weekly increase of 0.88%; SR07 closed at 5382 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.71% and a weekly increase of 0.9%; SR09 closed at 5384 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.71% and a weekly increase of 0.92%; SR11 closed at 5394 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.67% and a weekly increase of 0.86%; SB closed at 13.71 cents/pound, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 1.51%; W closed at 406.8, with a daily decrease of 0.46% and a weekly decrease of 0.46% [4] Sugar Basis - On March 5, 2026, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was -113 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 18 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 40 yuan/ton; the basis of Kunming - SR01 was -268 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 18 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 25 yuan/ton. Similar data are provided for other contracts [12] Sugar Import Price Changes - On March 6, 2026, the in - quota price of Brazilian sugar imports was 3910 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 13 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 119 yuan/ton; the out - of - quota price was 4948 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 17 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 155 yuan/ton. Similar data are provided for Thai sugar imports [15] Group 2: Cotton Core View - The domestic supply - demand situation for cotton this year remains tight, and there is still room for upward movement. However, the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton exerts pressure on the upside. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of the US foreign trade policy and the progress of US cotton exports. The recent escalation of the geopolitical conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has limited impact on the cotton market fundamentals for now, but the sharp rise in crude oil prices has led to an increase in chemical fiber products, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz may affect the export transportation of textile and clothing to Europe. The duration of the conflict should be monitored [17] Cotton and Cotton Yarn Futures Prices - Cotton 01 closed at 15660 yuan/ton, with an increase of 25 yuan/ton and a daily increase rate of 0.16%; Cotton 05 closed at 15295 yuan/ton, with an increase of 45 yuan/ton and a daily increase rate of 0.3%; Cotton 09 closed at 15345 yuan/ton, with an increase of 25 yuan/ton and a daily increase rate of 0.16%; Cotton yarn 01 closed at 0, with a decrease of 100%; Cotton yarn 05 closed at 21205 yuan/ton, with an increase of 150 yuan/ton and a daily increase rate of 0.71%; Cotton yarn 09 closed at 21210 yuan/ton, with an increase of 55 yuan/ton and a daily increase rate of 0.26% [18] Cotton and Cotton Yarn Spreads - The cotton basis was 1333 yuan/ton, with no change; Cotton 01 - 05 spread was 385 yuan/ton, with no change; Cotton 05 - 09 spread was -70 yuan/ton, with no change; Cotton 09 - 01 spread was -315 yuan/ton, with no change; The spread between cotton and yarn was 5845 yuan/ton, with no change; The price difference between domestic and foreign cotton was 4122 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 4 yuan/ton; The price difference between domestic and foreign yarn was 86 yuan/ton, with no change [18] Group 3: Apple Core View - The logic of the apple futures market continues to revolve around fundamental factors and short - term delivery issues. The weak short - term demand after the Spring Festival suppresses the market, but the delivery contradiction provides support, making the market prone to rise and difficult to fall [23] Apple Futures and Spot Prices - On March 6, 2026, AP01 closed at 8540 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.54% and a weekly increase of 2.69%; AP03 closed at 9267 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 1.83% and a weekly increase of 7.1%; AP04 closed at 9666 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 4.93% and a weekly increase of 1.23%; AP05 closed at 10316 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 4.06% and a weekly increase of 5.70%; AP10 closed at 8652 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.44% and a weekly increase of 2.38%; AP11 closed at 8500 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.48% and a weekly increase of 2.78%; AP12 closed at 8519 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.77% and a weekly increase of 2.31%. Spot prices of different apple varieties are also provided [24] Apple Spreads and Other Data - AP01 - 05 spread was -2167 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 16.95% and a weekly increase of 48.63%; AP05 - 10 spread was 2063 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 21.28% and a weekly increase of 59.55%; AP10 - 01 spread was 104 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 31.58% and a weekly decrease of 36.97%. The main contract basis was -620 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 23.93% and a weekly increase of 59.79% [24][25] Group 4: Red Dates Core View - The new planting season has not arrived yet, and the market focus is still on the demand side. After the Spring Festival, the downstream sales are mediocre, and the restocking is light. In the short term, due to the geopolitical conflict, market funds flow, and risk - aversion sentiment rises, but the driving force for red dates is limited. Under the overall loose domestic supply - demand situation, there is still pressure on the upside of red date prices, and they may maintain a low - level shock [32] Red Date Futures Spreads - The 01 - 05 spread, 05 - 09 spread, and 09 - 01 spread of red date futures are presented with their historical data and trends [33][35] Red Date Prices - The price trends of red dates in Xinjiang's main production areas and the wholesale prices of first - grade grey dates in main sales areas are provided [36]

Group 1 - The price of tin on the Shanghai market increased by over 8% [1] - Platinum prices rose by more than 5% [1] - Silicon iron saw an increase of over 3% [1] - Palladium and manganese silicon both experienced a rise of over 2% [1] Group 2 - Aluminum oxide prices fell by more than 3% [1] - Propylene, methanol, plastics, and PVC all decreased by over 2% [1]

Group 1: Hot News - Iran-US third - round indirect talks ended. Iran's foreign minister said both sides were close to reaching a consensus in some areas, and technical talks will be held in Vienna next Monday. Oman's foreign minister said the talks "made significant progress", but media reported large differences remain [2] - In January 2026, Chinese - brand passenger cars sold 1.329 million units, a 32.1% month - on - month and 8.9% year - on - year decrease, accounting for 66.9% of the total passenger car sales, with a 1.5 - percentage - point lower share than the same period last year [2] - As of the week ending February 26, rebar production decreased from an increase, factory inventory increased for six consecutive weeks, social inventory increased for eight consecutive weeks, and apparent demand increased from a decrease. Rebar production was 165,100 tons, a 3.10% decrease from last week; apparent demand was 80,540 tons, a 95.68% increase from last week [2] - As of the week ending February 19, US 2025/2026 soybean export net sales were 407,000 tons (798,000 tons the previous week), 2026/2027 net sales were 0 tons (66,000 tons the previous week). US 2025/2026 net sales to China were 76,000 tons (416,000 tons the previous week), 2026/2027 net sales to China were 0 tons (0 tons the previous week) [3] - In January 2026, global alumina production was 13.094 million tons (12.953 million tons in the same period last year, 13.566 million tons in the previous month's revised value). China's alumina production in January was estimated at 7.86 million tons (8.17 million tons in the previous month's revised value) [3] Group 2: Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on are urea, coking coal, alumina, Shanghai copper, and PP [4] Group 3: Night - session Performance - Sector performance: Non - metallic building materials rose 2.00%, precious metals 34.12%, oilseeds 7.68%, coal - coke - steel - ore 9.80%, energy 2.61%, chemicals 10.21%, grains 1.09%, agricultural and sideline products 2.53%, soft commodities 2.78%, and non - ferrous metals 27.18% [4][5] Group 4: Sector Position - The chart shows the changes in commodity futures sector positions in the past five days [6] Group 5: Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.01%, SSE 50 fell 0.65%, CSI 300 fell 0.19%, CSI 500 rose 0.35%, S&P 500 fell 0.54%, Hang Seng Index fell 1.44%, German DAX rose 0.45%, Nikkei 225 rose 0.29%, and UK FTSE 100 rose 0.37% [7] - Fixed - income: 10 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.10%, 5 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.08%, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.03% [7] - Commodities: CRB commodity index fell 0.45%, WTI crude oil rose 0.05%, London spot gold rose 0.33%, LME copper was flat, and Wind commodity index fell 2.90% [7] - Others: US dollar index rose 0.13%, and CBOE volatility index was flat [7] Group 6: Major Commodity Trends - The document presents the trends of various commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index, CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold and silver, LME copper, CBOT soybeans and corn, and related ratios like the gold - oil ratio and copper - gold ratio, as well as risk premiums [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The precious metals market is gradually recovering from previous declines. Gold is recommended to hold long positions, and the long - term outlook remains positive. Silver has increased spot price volatility, so caution is advised [1]. - For base metals, copper is recommended to be bought on dips. Aluminum prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term. Alumina prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. Lithium carbonate prices may rise significantly. Tin is recommended to be bought on dips [2][3]. - In the black industry, long positions in rebar should be held with caution. Iron ore is recommended to be observed. Long positions in coking coal should be held with caution [4][5]. - In the agricultural products market, soybeans are strong, and domestic soybean meal is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. Corn futures prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. Edible oils are weak. Cotton is recommended to be bought on dips. Egg and hog futures prices are expected to be volatile and weak [6][7]. - In the energy and chemical industry, LLDPE, PP, and styrene are expected to be volatile in the short term. PVC is recommended for a positive spread strategy. PX is recommended for medium - term long - allocation, and PTA should take appropriate profit. Glass is recommended to sell soda ash and buy glass. MEG is recommended to look for short - term long - trading opportunities. Crude oil is recommended to buy out - of - the - money put options on SC04 at high prices. Soda ash is recommended to be observed [8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Category Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: International gold prices rose 0.46% to $5164 per ounce, and international silver prices rose 2.39% to $89.17 per ounce [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Trump's State of the Union address mentioned tariffs, etc. The U.S. may impose up to 15% "global import tariffs" on some countries. EU estimates that 4.2 billion euros of goods face new tariffs. Iran's foreign minister is preparing to participate in the third round of indirect negotiations between Iran and the U.S. Domestic gold ETFs had a small inflow of 1.7 tons. COMEX gold inventory decreased by 2.3 tons to 1045.8 tons, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 67 tons to 11253.4 tons [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions in gold and be cautious with silver [1]. Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices were volatile and slightly stronger [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Investors bet on NVIDIA's strong performance, boosting market risk appetite. The supply of copper ore remains tight. After the festival, there is seasonal inventory accumulation [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips [2]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.81% to 23,740 yuan per ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate increased slightly [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to downstream resumption of work, U.S. tariff policies, and overseas production capacity changes [2]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina main contract increased by 1.45% to 2870 yuan per ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Some alumina plants are in the production - reduction and maintenance stage, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [3]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: LC2605 closed at 152,640 yuan per ton, an increase of 2.15% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The spot price of lithium spodumene concentrate increased. The production of lithium carbonate decreased in February. The inventory is expected to be in a tight balance in Q1 [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices may rise significantly due to the suspension of lithium ore exports in Zimbabwe [3]. Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin prices rose significantly [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Investors bet on NVIDIA's strong performance, boosting market risk appetite. The supply of tin ore remains tight [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips [3]. Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The main rebar contract 2605 closed at 3069 yuan per ton, up 39 yuan [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand contradiction of steel is not significant. The inventory of billets in Tangshan is at a historical high. Steel mills are in continuous losses, and the production increase space is limited [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions with caution, and the reference range for RB05 is 3040 - 3100 [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main iron ore contract 2605 closed at 748 yuan per ton, up 5 yuan [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand of iron ore is neutral. The iron - making water production is basically the same year - on - year. The port iron ore inventory is close to 170 million tons, and the structural contradiction persists [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Observe mainly, and the reference range for I05 is 740 - 770 [5]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main coking coal contract 2605 closed at 1113 yuan per ton, up 4.5 yuan [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Steel mills' profits are poor, and the blast furnace production may decrease slightly. The first round of price increase has been implemented, and there is no further plan. The overall inventory level is neutral, and the futures valuation is high [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions with caution, and the reference range for JM05 is 1090 - 1150 [5]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: Overnight CBOT soybeans rose [6]. - **Fundamentals**: South America has a high - yield expectation. U.S. soybean crushing is strong, and export expectations are strong. The overall supply - demand of U.S. soybeans is expected to improve, but the global supply - demand is expected to be looser [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Trade on China's increased purchase of U.S. soybeans, and pay attention to U.S. soybean exports and South American production [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices continued to rise, and spot prices rose slightly [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The grain - selling progress has exceeded 60%, and the pressure is not large. After the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the selling pressure of ground - stored grain. Downstream enterprises' inventories are at the same level as the same period, and port inventories are low [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [6]. Edible Oils - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil is weak in the short term [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The estimated production in Malaysia from February 1 - 20 decreased by 12% month - on - month, and the estimated exports from February 1 - 25 decreased by 12% month - on - month [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Trade on the seasonal production - increase expectation, and adopt a reverse - spread strategy [6]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: ICE U.S. cotton futures prices were volatile and stronger, and international crude oil futures prices were volatile and declined [6]. - **Fundamentals**: In 2025, the U.S. increased textile and clothing imports from India. The CAI's supply - demand balance sheet for the 25/26 season has no significant adjustments. Domestic cotton prices are boosted by ICE cotton prices [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips, and the price range is 15200 - 15800 yuan per ton [6]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices were narrowly volatile, and spot prices were mostly stable with a few rising [6]. - **Fundamentals**: After the Spring Festival, it is the traditional off - season for egg demand. The overall supply is sufficient, and egg prices are expected to be low [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to be volatile and weak. Industrial customers are recommended to pay attention to hedging opportunities in far - month contracts [6]. Hogs - **Market Performance**: Hog futures prices rebounded, and spot prices continued to be weak [7]. - **Fundamentals**: After the Spring Festival, the supply is strong and the demand is weak. The daily average slaughter pressure is large this month [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to be volatile and weak [7]. Energy and Chemical Industry LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The main LLDPE contract fell slightly. The spot price in North China is 6610 yuan per ton, and the basis is weak [8]. - **Fundamentals**: There is no new device put into production in the first half of the year, and the domestic supply pressure eases. The import window is closed, and the import volume is expected to decrease slightly. The downstream demand is weak, but it will enter the peak season in March and April [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to be volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to the development of the U.S. - Iran incident [8]. PVC - **Market Performance**: V05 closed at 4900, down 1% [8]. - **Fundamentals**: There are real - estate favorable policies, but high inventory suppresses prices. The supply is large, and the downstream factories have not resumed work. The social inventory is at a high level [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a positive - spread strategy of buying 09 and selling 01 [8]. PTA - **Market Performance**: PXCFR China price is $925 per ton, and PTA spot price in East China is 5285 yuan per ton, with a basis of - 63 yuan per ton [8]. - **Fundamentals**: PX supply is at a high level, and attention should be paid to seasonal maintenance. PTA supply is at a medium level. Polyester factory load is at a seasonal low, and the inventory pressure is not large [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain a long - allocation view on PX in the medium term. PTA has seasonal inventory accumulation, and appropriate profit - taking is recommended [8]. Glass - **Market Performance**: fg05 closed at 1055, down 0.8% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Glass is boosted by real - estate policies, but the near - term demand is average. The supply has decreased, and the inventory is at a high level. Downstream enterprises' orders are few, and the production is in a loss state [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a strategy of selling soda ash and buying glass [9]. PP - **Market Performance**: The main PP contract fell slightly. The spot price in East China is 6600 yuan per ton, and the basis is weak. The import window is closed, and the export window is open [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The new device put - into - production in the first half of the year decreases, and the domestic supply pressure increases. The downstream is in the holiday, and the start - up rate is low [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to be volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to the U.S. - Iran incident. In the long - term, it is mainly range - bound, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [9]. MEG - **Market Performance**: The spot price of MEG in East China is 3670 yuan per ton, with a basis of - 90 yuan per ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply pressure eases, and the import supply decreases. The inventory in some ports in East China is at a high level. The polyester load is at a seasonal low [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Look for short - term long - trading opportunities [9]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Oil prices have been volatile recently, waiting for the result of U.S. - Iran negotiations. The current oil price contains a risk premium of about $10 per barrel [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of Russian oil may face pressure, and the short - term core influence is the U.S. - Iran geopolitical risk. The demand for heating in the U.S. increased in February but will decline in March [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for the high oil price and buy out - of - the - money put options on SC04 [9]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The main EB contract fell slightly. The spot price in East China is 7650 yuan per ton, and the trading atmosphere is average. The import window is closed [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The pure - benzene inventory is at a normal - to - high level, and the supply - demand pattern will improve in February and March. The styrene inventory has accumulated during the Spring Festival, and the supply - demand is weak in February and March. The downstream start - up rate is low [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to be volatile in the short term, and pay attention to the U.S. - Iran incident. In the second quarter, it is recommended to buy on dips [10]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: sa05 closed at 1195, up 2% [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The bottom price of soda ash is stagnant, and the upstream orders are acceptable. The supply is large, and the inventory accumulation is not much. The downstream demand is stable, and there is a production - reduction expectation for float glass [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Observe [10].

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market closed mostly higher, with platinum and Shanghai tin rising over 7% [1] - Palladium and Shanghai silver increased by more than 4%, while lithium carbonate rose over 3% [1] - Coking coal and coking coke both saw increases of over 2% [1] Group 2 - In terms of declines, European line shipping fell nearly 5%, and polysilicon dropped by nearly 1% [1]