Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Since 2025, the amplitude of the 10-year Treasury bond has narrowed, showing a typical wedge-shaped consolidation pattern. The 30-year Treasury bond started a downward trend in July 2025 and has experienced short-term shock repairs since early 2026. Both are approaching a turning point [3]. - The trading logic of the 30-year Treasury bond futures (TL) may have changed, and it may have entered a medium - to long - term downward channel. The rebound since January 2026 is likely a technical repair rather than a trend reversal. It is recommended to short at high levels in the resistance range of 113 - 113.5 [3][21]. - The 10-year Treasury bond futures (T) are in a wedge-shaped consolidation pattern, which is likely a trend continuation adjustment. After the consolidation, the price is more likely to continue the previous upward trend. The end time of the wedge-shaped consolidation is expected to be around April [3][42]. Summary by Directory I. Technical Analysis: The Key to Analyzing Long - Term Interest Rates - Technical analysis is effective in analyzing the 30-year Treasury bond because it is a speculative product, and its price is driven by risk preference and policy expectations. Technical analysis can capture market trends, quantify risk preferences, and verify policy expectations [9]. - For speculative products, price and trend in technical analysis are important signals. Technical indicators can show overbought/oversold conditions and divergence signals. In policy expectation games, technical analysis can confirm market expectations and reflect narrative changes [9][10]. II. Treasury Bond Futures: A More Ideal Carrier for Technical Analysis - Treasury bond futures, especially the 10-year and 30-year main contracts, are more effective for technical analysis than spot bonds due to their standardization, high liquidity, and transparent and centralized trading characteristics, which can more purely and sensitively reflect market sentiment [11]. - Compared with spot bonds, Treasury bond futures have advantages in liquidity, price continuity, leverage and speculative attributes, and information reaction efficiency. Their price trends are more continuous and can lead spot bonds [13]. III. 30 - Year Treasury Bond Futures (TL): The Long - Term Trading Logic May Have Changed (1) Trend Positioning: The "Double Top" Pattern is Established, and It May Enter a Medium - to Long - Term Downward Channel - Technically, the TL contract broke through the key support level in December 2025, forming a "double top" pattern and entering a long - term downward channel. The improvement of macro - expectations and the strengthening of confidence in the equity bull market may be the underlying factors driving the decline [22]. - In the short - to medium - term, the rebound since January 2026 is difficult to reverse the long - term downward trend. The rebound momentum is weakening, and the suppression of risk preference continues, so the current rebound is likely a technical repair [24][26]. (2) Short - Term Trend: Approaching the Time to Short at High Levels - The 30 - year Treasury bond has a high odds ratio. The 30 - 10 - year Treasury bond spread is at a high level, and there is still room for compression in the old - new bond spread [29]. - The resistance range of 113 - 113.5 is expected. If the upward trend continues, the increase may be 0.1% - 0.6%. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures may reach the top around the Two Sessions in early March [34][38]. IV. 10 - Year Treasury Bond Futures (T): Pay Attention to the End Time of the Wedge - Shaped Consolidation Pattern (1) Long - Term in a Triangular Convergence Channel - Since 2025, the T contract has been in a wedge - shaped consolidation pattern, showing a symmetrical triangular convergence. The price fluctuation range has narrowed, and the trading volume has decreased. The balance of long - and short - term forces is waiting for a directional breakthrough [43]. - The "strong expectation + weak reality" situation and the guidance of the reasonable range have led to the long - and short - term tug - of war in the 10 - year Treasury bond, forming a long - term oscillatory pattern. An incremental signal is needed for a breakthrough [43]. (2) Directional Choice is Approaching - The end time of the wedge - shaped consolidation may be around April. Without an incremental signal, it is unlikely to break through the shock pattern in the current wave band. If the current market situation is extrapolated, the end time may be from late March to early April or the end of April [44]. - After the end of the wedge - shaped consolidation, the price is more likely to continue the previous upward trend because the current wedge - shaped pattern is similar to a symmetrical triangle, which is a typical trend continuation pattern [47].