Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is experiencing a "panic selling" phase, primarily in non-core cities and older assets, while core cities show resilience in property prices [4][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Panic selling is evident, with homeowners offering rewards of 50,000 for quick sales and organizing open house events [1] - The average price of second-hand homes in 100 cities dropped by 7.24% year-on-year as of May 2025, with significant disparities between cities [4] - The market is entering a "ice and fire" phase, indicating a split between high-performing core cities and struggling non-core areas [5] Group 2: Policy Impact - The government has implemented a rapid and effective policy response, with 200 billion yuan allocated to support stalled projects, and an additional 300 billion yuan planned for the second half of the year [5][6] - Mortgage rates have reached historic lows, with first-time homebuyer rates in cities like Shanghai and Guangzhou dropping to 3.15% [5][6] Group 3: Developer Activity - Major developers are aggressively acquiring land, with a total land acquisition amount exceeding 405 billion yuan from January to May 2025, a year-on-year increase of 28.8% [6] - High premium rates in land auctions indicate renewed confidence among developers in core city markets [6] Group 4: Market Segmentation - The market is increasingly polarized, with only 5 out of 70 major cities seeing an increase in second-hand home prices, while core areas like Shanghai's Xuhui district maintain high prices [6][8] - Population trends show significant inflows in cities like Shenzhen and Hangzhou, while some northeastern cities experience over 5% population outflow [6][8] Group 5: Future Outlook - Key indicators suggest a potential recovery in the housing market, with new home inventory decreasing for 24 consecutive months and mortgage rates at historic lows [7] - The demand for larger homes is rising, with a 5% increase in the share of transactions for properties over 120 square meters [7][8] - The importance of selecting the right city and location is emphasized, as market conditions continue to diverge [10]