Core Viewpoint - The significant drop in durian prices this summer is primarily driven by supply-demand dynamics and quality issues in the market [1][10][14]. Supply and Demand - The wholesale average price of durian in China fell to 51.38 yuan per kilogram by May 23, down 25.8% from April's average of 69.26 yuan [1]. - An increase in supply from major producing regions is expected, with Thailand's eastern durian production projected to rise by 30% to 1.5 million tons in 2024, and Vietnam's output at 850,000 tons [3][14]. - The influx of Vietnamese durians is anticipated to continue the downward price trend into June [1][3]. Trade Facilitation - The ongoing negotiations for the upgraded China-ASEAN Free Trade Area are reducing barriers for Southeast Asian fruits entering China, improving logistics efficiency [4][5]. - The time taken for durians to reach the Chinese market has decreased by approximately 30%, lowering overall distribution costs [5]. Domestic Production - Domestic durian cultivation is emerging, with over 4,000 acres yielding results in Hainan, expected to produce around 600 tons of "tree-ripened" durians by mid-June [7]. Quality Issues - There is a notable decline in the quality of imported durians, with a high proportion of "raw packages" that appear ripe but have poor taste and texture [8][10]. - The rainy season in Thailand has adversely affected the sugar accumulation and ripeness of durians, leading to a higher incidence of subpar quality [10][18]. Price Dynamics - The price of low-quality durians has significantly dropped, creating a misleading perception of overall price decline in the market [11][14]. - High-quality durians remain scarce and are still commanding stable prices, with some premium varieties selling for as much as 78 yuan per pound [13][14]. Market Impact - The price volatility is putting immense pressure on the entire durian supply chain, with Thai farmers experiencing a drop in purchase prices to around 10 yuan per pound, half of last year's prices [14]. - Retailers are facing reduced profit margins due to the price drop, leading to a reevaluation of their business strategies [15][18]. Consumer Behavior - The fluctuations in durian prices reflect broader changes in the high-end fruit market, with consumers becoming more cautious in their spending on non-essential items [18][21]. - Retailers are now focusing on quality control and diversifying their product offerings to mitigate risks and meet evolving consumer demands [19][21].

Core Insights - The price of durians in Zhengzhou, Henan has dropped by 50%, attributed to a significant increase in sales due to price advantages and abundant supply from imports [1] - In Qingdao, the wholesale price of durians has decreased from over 50 yuan to 25 yuan in just half a month, with daily imports reaching up to 4 million jin [1] - The surge in durian imports, particularly from Thailand, has led to a substantial increase in supply, with a reported import of 100,700 tons in the first four months of the year, and a 271.63% month-on-month increase in April [1] - The domestic durian harvest is expected to begin in June, further contributing to the increased supply and potential price drops [2] Group 1 - The wholesale price of durians in Qingdao is expected to fall below 20 yuan per jin as Vietnamese durians enter the market next month [1] - The Thai durian harvest has seen a bumper crop this May, leading to an increase in market supply and a year-on-year price decrease [1] - The first batch of domestic "tree-ripened" durians is expected to be available in mid to late June, with an estimated production area of over 4,000 mu and a yield of around 600 tons [2] Group 2 - Domestic durians are marketed as having superior taste and texture due to the "tree-ripened" harvesting method, appealing to high-end durian enthusiasts [2]