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海底捞(06862):8月运营持续改善,翻台率同比小幅提升
Huajing Securities· 2025-09-18 10:42
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haidilao with a target price of HK$20.40, indicating a potential upside of 53% from the current price of HK$13.36 [3][7]. Core Views - Haidilao's operations showed continued marginal improvement in August, with an increase in table turnover rates compared to July and a slight year-on-year increase [3]. - The company is focusing on enhancing customer experience by launching various themed restaurants and an innovative concept store in Beijing, which aims to improve operational efficiency [3][4]. - Despite a decline in profit and revenue in the first half of 2025, Haidilao maintains a strong cash position with RMB 92 billion in net cash and a high dividend payout ratio of 95% [4][5]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are expected to grow by 3.3%/3.3%/3.1%, reaching RMB 441.5 billion, RMB 455.9 billion, and RMB 470.0 billion respectively [5]. - The net profit forecast for the same period is projected to increase by 2.7%/3.0%/2.9%, amounting to RMB 48.4 billion, RMB 49.8 billion, and RMB 51.2 billion respectively [5]. - The company reported a cash flow from operating activities of RMB 26 billion in the first half of 2025, indicating strong operational cash generation despite lower profits [4]. Operational Insights - Haidilao's strategy has shifted from focusing solely on performance metrics to also considering shareholder returns, with a commitment to reasonable dividends while ensuring future investments [4]. - The company plans to adjust its management approach to better support employees and enhance operational efficiency [4]. - The introduction of the "Red Pomegranate" initiative aims to lower the barriers for entrepreneurship within the company, allowing for collaboration with established external brands [4].