正反馈的波动螺旋

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VIX指数拒绝溃败!“过山车式”波动之中衍生品显韧性 但金融市场动荡远未完结
智通财经网· 2025-04-14 00:40
Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in global financial markets, highlighted by the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), has not exhibited the extreme pricing anomalies seen in previous market downturns, indicating a more stable market response to risk events like tariff announcements [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions and VIX Behavior - The VIX index spiked to 60 points but followed a similar trajectory to the S&P 500 index, contrasting with the extreme pricing seen in August [1][3]. - Following a tweet from Trump indicating a rational shift in tariff policy, global markets experienced a significant rebound, termed a "miracle day" for U.S. stocks [1]. - Investors managed risks during tariff-induced market turmoil by cashing out existing hedges rather than panic buying new protective positions, reflecting a more mature market behavior [2][8]. Group 2: Structural Market Dynamics - The widening bid-ask spreads in the market have increased to about 3-4 times the normal levels, indicating ongoing uncertainty despite the VIX's record drop following tariff news [2][13]. - The VIX remains approximately 20 points above its one-year average, suggesting that the market anticipates prolonged volatility and deeper risks related to global trade conflicts [2][10]. - The current market dynamics show that the VIX's pricing trend is healthy and not driven by extreme derivative positions, indicating a structural resilience in the market [7][8]. Group 3: Future Market Outlook - Analysts warn that the current volatility may become the new normal, with potential for further declines unless significant macroeconomic interventions occur [14]. - The market's response to recent tariff announcements suggests that traders are better prepared for volatility, which may lead to more stable pricing in the future [8][10].