Core Insights - The article discusses the precarious situation of Bitcoin amidst the looming threat of a 30% tariff imposed by Trump on the EU and Mexico, highlighting the contrasting sentiments between institutional and retail investors [1][2][6] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Bitcoin experienced a significant price surge, breaking through $122,000, amidst speculation that Trump would back down or the Federal Reserve would intervene [1] - Institutional investors showed strong confidence in Bitcoin, with a net inflow of $1.18 billion in a single day and BlackRock's IBIT fund acquiring $239,000 worth of Bitcoin every minute [2] - Conversely, retail investors are retreating, as evidenced by a 320% increase in Google searches for "Bitcoin bubble" and a decline in small on-chain transactions to historical lows [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Imbalance - Corporate balance sheets are being transformed by Bitcoin, with MicroStrategy holding over 324,000 Bitcoins valued at $34.5 billion, and Japanese company Metaplanet purchasing 797 Bitcoins in one day [4] - The inventory on exchanges has dropped to a five-year low, with miners holding back on selling, leading to a significant supply-demand imbalance [4] Group 3: Regulatory Developments - The U.S. Congress is reviewing three major bills aimed at increasing transparency and clarifying regulatory responsibilities regarding cryptocurrencies, indicating a shift towards regulatory acceptance [6] - Trump's change in stance from dismissing Bitcoin to advocating for cryptocurrency support within the Republican Party reflects a broader trend towards legitimizing the crypto market [6] Group 4: Market Misjudgments - The market is making four critical misjudgments, including underestimating Trump's resolve, over-relying on Federal Reserve intervention, ignoring liquidity risks during low trading volumes, and underestimating geopolitical risks associated with trade agreements [7][8] Group 5: Bitcoin's Dual Nature - Bitcoin's role as a hedge against monetary risks is being re-evaluated, with its correlation to Nasdaq dropping significantly while showing a negative correlation with the volatility index [10] - The ongoing debate is whether Bitcoin will be seen as "digital gold" or a speculative asset, influenced by macroeconomic factors such as rising U.S. debt interest payments [10] Group 6: Mining Sector Implications - Potential tariffs on mining equipment could reduce mining profits by 10-15%, prompting miners to relocate operations, which could impact Bitcoin's network stability [11] Group 7: Future Scenarios - Three potential scenarios are outlined regarding the tariff situation: a compromise leading to Bitcoin rising to $150,000, partial implementation causing a drop to $112,000, or a full-blown trade war resulting in a 20% Bitcoin crash [12][13]