渣打银行全球数字资产研究主管杰弗里·肯德里克表示，那些曾将比特币作为司库资产来推动其需求的 公司(即所谓的"DATs")已经不再拥有支撑其持续购买的估值或动力。 "我们认为DATs对比特币的购买已经完成，而我们预计ETF资金流入将间歇性恢复，"他写道。"我们预 期的是盘整，而非彻底抛售。" 随着这一需求支柱的消失，ETF资金流现在是唯一的支撑锚，而它似乎正在失去动力。贝莱德旗下的 IBIT基金上月遭遇了约23亿美元的投资者赎回——这是其今年最大的月度赎回，也是仅有的第二次月度 资金流出。尽管流出量仅占该基金总资产的3%，但此次回撤引发了担忧：考虑到比特币在先前大幅回 撤后总能强力反弹，其拥趸们是否正在动摇其长期持有的策略。 伯恩斯坦的分析师包括高塔姆·丘加尼、马希卡·萨普拉和桑斯卡尔·钦达利亚指出，尽管比特币价格下跌 了近三分之一，但十余只现货比特币ETF的净流出仅占伯恩斯坦预估的总资产规模的不到5%。比特 币"现在正处于一个被拉长的牛市周期中，更多粘性的机构购买抵消了任何散户的恐慌性抛售。" 在近期市场下跌后，华尔街最大的比特币多头们正在下调其短期预测，但他们的长期信念并未动摇。 长期的加密货币支持者渣打银 ...

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market experienced a dramatic event on November 28, 2025, where Bitcoin surged to a peak of $91,800, but within 24 hours, nearly 100,000 traders faced liquidation, resulting in a loss of $547 million in principal. This paradox of rising prices coinciding with significant losses raises questions about market dynamics and institutional behavior [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Bitcoin's price rose sharply from mid-November, reaching $91,800 before a sudden drop to $86,000, showcasing volatility with over 6% fluctuation in a few hours [3][5]. - Among the 100,000 liquidated positions, 80% were long positions, indicating that most traders were betting on further price increases [3][5]. - Institutional investors have been withdrawing from Bitcoin ETFs, with $3.5 billion exiting in November alone, including $2.2 billion from the popular BlackRock IBIT fund, marking the worst redemption month since its inception [3][5][8]. Group 2: Contributing Factors - The recent Bitcoin price surge is attributed to three main factors: 1. The halving event in April reduced the daily issuance of new Bitcoins from 1,800 to 900, leading to a scarcity in supply [5][6]. 2. The outflow of ETF funds indicates a shift in institutional sentiment, with estimates suggesting that a $1 billion outflow could lead to a 3.4% price drop, yet the market continued to rise due to retail investors absorbing the risk [8][9]. 3. High leverage among retail investors has amplified risks, with those using 10x leverage facing total loss on a mere 10% price drop, leading to widespread liquidations during market volatility [9][11]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The market is currently polarized between optimistic and pessimistic views. Optimists point to Bitcoin's realized market cap exceeding $900 billion and potential price targets of $150,000 by year-end, viewing recent corrections as temporary [11][12]. - Conversely, pessimists highlight extreme fear in the market, with the fear and greed index at 15, suggesting a potential 25% drop in Bitcoin's price, alongside increasing regulatory scrutiny [11][12]. - The future price trajectory of Bitcoin will depend on two critical factors: the return of ETF funds and the regulatory environment, which remains uncertain [12].

Core Insights - The article discusses the precarious situation of Bitcoin amidst the looming threat of a 30% tariff imposed by Trump on the EU and Mexico, highlighting the contrasting sentiments between institutional and retail investors [1][2][6] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Bitcoin experienced a significant price surge, breaking through $122,000, amidst speculation that Trump would back down or the Federal Reserve would intervene [1] - Institutional investors showed strong confidence in Bitcoin, with a net inflow of $1.18 billion in a single day and BlackRock's IBIT fund acquiring $239,000 worth of Bitcoin every minute [2] - Conversely, retail investors are retreating, as evidenced by a 320% increase in Google searches for "Bitcoin bubble" and a decline in small on-chain transactions to historical lows [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Imbalance - Corporate balance sheets are being transformed by Bitcoin, with MicroStrategy holding over 324,000 Bitcoins valued at $34.5 billion, and Japanese company Metaplanet purchasing 797 Bitcoins in one day [4] - The inventory on exchanges has dropped to a five-year low, with miners holding back on selling, leading to a significant supply-demand imbalance [4] Group 3: Regulatory Developments - The U.S. Congress is reviewing three major bills aimed at increasing transparency and clarifying regulatory responsibilities regarding cryptocurrencies, indicating a shift towards regulatory acceptance [6] - Trump's change in stance from dismissing Bitcoin to advocating for cryptocurrency support within the Republican Party reflects a broader trend towards legitimizing the crypto market [6] Group 4: Market Misjudgments - The market is making four critical misjudgments, including underestimating Trump's resolve, over-relying on Federal Reserve intervention, ignoring liquidity risks during low trading volumes, and underestimating geopolitical risks associated with trade agreements [7][8] Group 5: Bitcoin's Dual Nature - Bitcoin's role as a hedge against monetary risks is being re-evaluated, with its correlation to Nasdaq dropping significantly while showing a negative correlation with the volatility index [10] - The ongoing debate is whether Bitcoin will be seen as "digital gold" or a speculative asset, influenced by macroeconomic factors such as rising U.S. debt interest payments [10] Group 6: Mining Sector Implications - Potential tariffs on mining equipment could reduce mining profits by 10-15%, prompting miners to relocate operations, which could impact Bitcoin's network stability [11] Group 7: Future Scenarios - Three potential scenarios are outlined regarding the tariff situation: a compromise leading to Bitcoin rising to $150,000, partial implementation causing a drop to $112,000, or a full-blown trade war resulting in a 20% Bitcoin crash [12][13]

Group 1 - Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $116,488.83, with a year-to-date increase of over 20% [1] - The recent surge in Bitcoin's price is attributed to U.S. policy support and institutional buying, including the establishment of a national strategy for cryptocurrency reserves [1] - Trump's media and technology group plans to launch a cryptocurrency ETF, investing in Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Cronos, and XRP [1] Group 2 - Since the approval of the first spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, these products have attracted over $50 billion in inflows, indicating strong institutional interest [2] - The BlackRock IBIT fund has seen its assets under management grow to $76 billion, doubling since the beginning of the year [2] Group 3 - Analysts caution investors about potential risks, noting Bitcoin's high volatility and its strong correlation with stock market performance [3] - The outcome of upcoming trade negotiations and macroeconomic conditions will be crucial for Bitcoin's ability to maintain its high price levels [3] - The Federal Reserve's dovish stance and a weakening dollar have positively impacted Bitcoin, enhancing market risk appetite [3] Group 4 - U.S. stock markets also rose, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reaching new closing highs [4]