研究院 农产品组 研究员 邓绍瑞 010-64405663 dengshaorui@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3047125 投资咨询号：Z0015474 李馨 lixin@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03120775 投资咨询号：Z0019724 联系人 白旭宇 期货研究报告|果蔬品周报 2025-4-27 苹果期现共振强势运行，枣树萌芽关注生长异动 策略摘要 苹果观点 ■ 市场分析 五一假期备货持续，叠加消费旺季，产区冷库包装发货客商增多。目前看货客商增 加，货源价格走高，各类价格货源市场接受积极。销区市场到车稳定，市场走货好 转，下游客户按需补货，消化进度良好。目前水果青黄不接，瓜类水果未大量上市， 其他水果竞争力较小，利好苹果。前期对消费的担忧减缓，市场看涨情绪居多。当前 剩余库存处于五年低位，去库压力不大，预计下周成交保持顺畅，价格维持稳中偏 强。价格方面，周内苹果价格继续上涨，价格高位运行。由于苹果属于非必需品，销 区大幅涨价，会严重抑制需求，降低去库速度，未来势必导致价格上涨放缓。整体来 看，目前现货价格整体偏硬，主要是库存偏低，低价果偏少导致。新季苹果方面，西 部新季苹果陆续进入末花 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Apple: Oscillating upward [5] - Red dates: Neutral [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - Apple: In April, apples enter the traditional sales peak season with improved terminal consumption and increased trading activity. Current inventory is at a five - year low, reducing de - stocking pressure. Although short - term prices are expected to be strong, significant price increases in the sales area may slow down price growth. New - season apples are in the flowering period, and some areas have suffered frost damage, with weather being a major factor affecting production expectations. The futures - spot price is expected to be positive in the short term [4][15] - Red dates: The 2024 red date harvest was unexpectedly high, and both futures and spot prices are at historical lows. The current consumption is in the off - season, which will last until September. Some downstream traders are preparing for the Dragon Boat Festival. The cost of red date warehouse receipts provides support, and short - term prices are expected to fluctuate. Future attention should be paid to the growth of new - season red dates and weather changes [5][20] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Apple Market Analysis Price Quotes - Futures: This week, the closing price of the Apple 2510 contract was 7,674 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 207 yuan/ton, or 2.63%. - Spot: In Shandong Qixia, the price of 80 first - and second - grade apples was 8,100 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week, with a spot basis of AP10 + 426, a week - on - week increase of 207 yuan/ton. In Shaanxi Yan'an, the price of 70 semi - commercial apples was 8,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week, with a spot basis of AP10 + 926, a week - on - week increase of 207 yuan/ton [11] Apple Supply and Demand - As of April 16, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 3.5456 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 440,600 tons. The replenishment of merchants was active, and the de - stocking rate was accelerating year - on - year, reaching a five - year low. The average wholesale price of six fruits monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs increased slightly, with the price of Fuji apples rising. The current fruit supply is in a transitional period, which is beneficial for apples [12] - In the producing areas, the cold - storage sales speeded up, and merchants were actively restocking. The overall price of late - Fuji apples remained stable at a high level, with some areas showing a slight increase. In the sales areas, the number of arriving trucks in the Guangdong market returned to the pre - holiday level, and the market sales were good [13] Future Outlook - In April, the apple sales season is booming, with improved consumption and increased trading. The current inventory is low, and prices are expected to remain stable and slightly strong next week. However, significant price increases in the sales area may slow down price growth. New - season apples are in the flowering period, and some areas have suffered frost damage, so future weather needs close attention [14][15] Red Date Market Analysis Price Quotes - Futures: As of April 18, the closing price of the Red Date 2509 contract was 9,450 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 70 yuan/ton, or 0.75%. - Spot: In 2024, the purchase price of Xinjiang grey dates was concentrated between 4.50 - 5.50 yuan/kg, with an average purchase price of 5.33 yuan/kg. The spot price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 8,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week, with a spot basis of CJ09 - 1150, a week - on - week decrease of 70 [16] Red Date Supply and Demand - Supply: The 2024 Xinjiang grey date harvest was abundant, with a yield of about 700,000 tons. The purchase price was between 4.50 - 5.50 yuan/kg, and the average purchase price was 5.33 yuan/kg. The quality was slightly lower, and the cost of warehouse receipts was around 9,000 yuan. New - season red dates are in the germination period, and attention should be paid to potential growth risks and weather changes [17][18] - Sales Areas: The current sales are in the off - season, with increasing supply of seasonal fruits and weakening demand for red dates. The inventory of 36 sample physical warehouses decreased slightly this week, and holders are reluctant to sell at a discount due to low prices [18][19] Future Outlook - The 2024 red date harvest was unexpectedly high, and both futures and spot prices are at historical lows. The current consumption is in the off - season, which will last until September. Some downstream traders are preparing for the Dragon Boat Festival. The cost of red date warehouse receipts provides support, and short - term prices are expected to fluctuate. Future attention should be paid to the growth of new - season red dates and weather changes [20]