Core Viewpoint - The significant drop in durian prices this summer is primarily driven by supply-demand dynamics and quality issues in the market [4][22]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - From May 2023, the national wholesale average price of durian fell to 51.38 yuan/kg, a decrease of 25.8% from April's average of 69.26 yuan/kg [4]. - The expected increase in supply from Thailand and Vietnam, with Thailand's production projected to rise by 30% to 1.5 million tons and Vietnam's at 850,000 tons, is set to exceed China's total import volume of approximately 1.56 million tons for 2024 [7]. - The trade facilitation benefits from the ongoing negotiations of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 have lowered market entry barriers and improved logistics efficiency, reducing transportation losses by about 20% [9]. Quality Issues - There has been a notable decline in the quality of imported durians, with a high incidence of "raw packages" (durians appearing ripe but lacking flavor) reported this year [14][16]. - The overlap of the harvest season with the rainy season in Thailand has adversely affected the sugar accumulation and ripeness of the durians [16]. - The market is experiencing a severe polarization in quality, with low-quality durians flooding the market at reduced prices, while high-quality durians remain scarce and maintain higher prices [20][22]. Impact on Retail and Consumer Behavior - The price drop has significantly impacted the profit margins of retailers, with some reporting a near halving of profits due to the need to adjust prices in line with market trends [25][27]. - The decline in consumer confidence regarding the quality of high-end fruits has led to a reduction in demand, as consumers are now more cautious about spending on premium products [28]. - Retailers are adapting by focusing on quality control, directly sourcing from reputable suppliers, and diversifying their product offerings to mitigate risks associated with high-end fruit sales [29][31].

Core Insights - The durian market is experiencing a surge in sales as the season for fresh durians begins, with both online and offline sales showing significant growth [1][4] - The price of Thai durians has decreased by 20% to 30% compared to last year, attributed to increased production in Thailand's eastern regions and concentrated port arrivals [4][5] - The sales of durian-related products have also seen remarkable growth, with a 30% increase in sales revenue since mid-April, and a 90% increase in durian-based baked goods [1] Sales Trends - The most popular durian variety is the XXL Thai imported "Golden Pillow," weighing approximately 3 to 3.5 kg, priced at 169 yuan, which is about 24 to 28 yuan per pound [1] - Online platforms like Dingdong Maicai report a 52% increase in sales of Thai "Golden Pillow" durians [4] - The price of fresh durians in live-streaming sales has also decreased significantly compared to the previous year, with prices for pure fruit meat ranging from 128 yuan for 1 kg to 225 yuan for 1.8 kg [5] Market Dynamics - The market is expected to see a "short-term price drop and long-term differentiation" around the Dragon Boat Festival, with an increase in port arrivals leading to potential price declines [4] - The procurement volume of Thai durians at Hema is projected to increase by 30% year-on-year due to an improved supply chain [5] - The entry of Malaysian durians into the Chinese market is anticipated to boost sales, with expected increases in procurement volume by 3 to 5 times this year [5]

Core Insights - The price of lychee in Guangdong has significantly dropped, with wholesale prices falling approximately 40% compared to the same period last month, leading to predictions of retail prices entering the "10 yuan for 3 jin" range [1][8] - This year is expected to be a bumper harvest for lychee, with production increasing by about 30% compared to last year, and Guangzhou's lychee production projected to reach around 120,000 tons, a 97% increase from the previous year [2][4] Price Trends - Current retail prices for lychee are generally around 10 yuan per jin, with potential for further decline as more varieties enter the market [5][8] - The average price for lychee has shown a downward trend, with reference prices dropping from 30 yuan per kilogram to 25.5 yuan per kilogram in early May [5][6] Production Forecast - Guangdong's total lychee production is expected to be substantial, with estimates of 99,000 tons from both the western and eastern regions, and 14,000 tons from the Pearl River Delta region [2] - High production is anticipated in Gaozhou, with a forecast of over 280,000 tons for 2025, marking a significant increase from 2024 [4] Market Dynamics - The influx of various lychee varieties in late May and June is expected to alter supply-demand dynamics, leading to further price reductions [8] - E-commerce platforms are already seeing increased sales, with a reported 128% week-on-week growth in lychee sales [1][8] Logistics and Distribution - Logistics companies are enhancing their transportation capabilities for lychee, implementing measures to expedite delivery times, which may contribute to ongoing price pressures [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Apple: Oscillating upward [5] - Red dates: Neutral [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - Apple: In April, apples enter the traditional sales peak season with improved terminal consumption and increased trading activity. Current inventory is at a five - year low, reducing de - stocking pressure. Although short - term prices are expected to be strong, significant price increases in the sales area may slow down price growth. New - season apples are in the flowering period, and some areas have suffered frost damage, with weather being a major factor affecting production expectations. The futures - spot price is expected to be positive in the short term [4][15] - Red dates: The 2024 red date harvest was unexpectedly high, and both futures and spot prices are at historical lows. The current consumption is in the off - season, which will last until September. Some downstream traders are preparing for the Dragon Boat Festival. The cost of red date warehouse receipts provides support, and short - term prices are expected to fluctuate. Future attention should be paid to the growth of new - season red dates and weather changes [5][20] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Apple Market Analysis Price Quotes - Futures: This week, the closing price of the Apple 2510 contract was 7,674 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 207 yuan/ton, or 2.63%. - Spot: In Shandong Qixia, the price of 80 first - and second - grade apples was 8,100 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week, with a spot basis of AP10 + 426, a week - on - week increase of 207 yuan/ton. In Shaanxi Yan'an, the price of 70 semi - commercial apples was 8,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week, with a spot basis of AP10 + 926, a week - on - week increase of 207 yuan/ton [11] Apple Supply and Demand - As of April 16, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 3.5456 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 440,600 tons. The replenishment of merchants was active, and the de - stocking rate was accelerating year - on - year, reaching a five - year low. The average wholesale price of six fruits monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs increased slightly, with the price of Fuji apples rising. The current fruit supply is in a transitional period, which is beneficial for apples [12] - In the producing areas, the cold - storage sales speeded up, and merchants were actively restocking. The overall price of late - Fuji apples remained stable at a high level, with some areas showing a slight increase. In the sales areas, the number of arriving trucks in the Guangdong market returned to the pre - holiday level, and the market sales were good [13] Future Outlook - In April, the apple sales season is booming, with improved consumption and increased trading. The current inventory is low, and prices are expected to remain stable and slightly strong next week. However, significant price increases in the sales area may slow down price growth. New - season apples are in the flowering period, and some areas have suffered frost damage, so future weather needs close attention [14][15] Red Date Market Analysis Price Quotes - Futures: As of April 18, the closing price of the Red Date 2509 contract was 9,450 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 70 yuan/ton, or 0.75%. - Spot: In 2024, the purchase price of Xinjiang grey dates was concentrated between 4.50 - 5.50 yuan/kg, with an average purchase price of 5.33 yuan/kg. The spot price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 8,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week, with a spot basis of CJ09 - 1150, a week - on - week decrease of 70 [16] Red Date Supply and Demand - Supply: The 2024 Xinjiang grey date harvest was abundant, with a yield of about 700,000 tons. The purchase price was between 4.50 - 5.50 yuan/kg, and the average purchase price was 5.33 yuan/kg. The quality was slightly lower, and the cost of warehouse receipts was around 9,000 yuan. New - season red dates are in the germination period, and attention should be paid to potential growth risks and weather changes [17][18] - Sales Areas: The current sales are in the off - season, with increasing supply of seasonal fruits and weakening demand for red dates. The inventory of 36 sample physical warehouses decreased slightly this week, and holders are reluctant to sell at a discount due to low prices [18][19] Future Outlook - The 2024 red date harvest was unexpectedly high, and both futures and spot prices are at historical lows. The current consumption is in the off - season, which will last until September. Some downstream traders are preparing for the Dragon Boat Festival. The cost of red date warehouse receipts provides support, and short - term prices are expected to fluctuate. Future attention should be paid to the growth of new - season red dates and weather changes [20]