水泥价格探底回升
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上峰水泥(000672):半导体投资花期已至 水泥主业蓄势涅盘
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-10-21 12:28
Investment Business - The company focuses on the semiconductor sector, expecting a concentrated realization period in the next 1-2 years [1] - By October 2025, the total investment in equity business will exceed 1.9 billion, with 29 projects, 20 of which are semiconductor companies, accounting for 69% [1] - The company invested 200 million in Changxin Technology, a domestic DRAM leader, in July 2021, which has completed IPO guidance acceptance by October 2025 [1] - Changxin Technology's valuation reached 140 billion during its financing in March 2024, indicating potential high returns post-IPO [1] - Over 60% of the initial investment projects are either listed or in the process of going public, with 100% of key projects over 100 million already on the path to capitalization [1] - The company's semiconductor investments began in Anhui, benefiting from local industry growth, resource empowerment, and strong cash flow [1] - Investments are made through a wholly-owned subsidiary as an LP in collaboration with Lanpu Venture Capital to ensure professional investment [1] Cement Business - The company's cement operations are primarily located in the economically developed Yangtze River Delta region, showing superior cost and profit performance compared to peers [2] - In H1 2025, the cement clinker cost was 154.49 yuan/ton, leading the industry, with a gross profit of 66.47 yuan, close to that of Conch Cement [2] - The company has maintained positive operating cash flow since 2015, with a peak of over 3 billion in 2019, and 4.76 billion in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 23.99% [2] - The company emphasizes high dividends and multiple incentive plans, committing to a cash dividend of at least 35% of net profit from 2024 to 2026, with a minimum of 400 million each year [2] Industry Outlook - In Q3 2025, cement prices fell to a near five-year low, with an average price of 344.33 yuan/ton, down 32.47 yuan/ton from the previous quarter and 40.09% year-on-year [3] - The current profitability of leading companies is below a safe line, with potential losses for small and medium enterprises expected to increase [3] - Short-term recovery in cement prices is anticipated due to strong price recovery intentions among companies, while mid-term improvements are expected from policies addressing overproduction [3] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 4.941 billion, 4.974 billion, and 5.157 billion yuan, with net profits of 754 million, 902 million, and 998 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 20% in 2025 and 2026 [3] - The company’s fixed dividend model offers attractive yields, and it is rated as a "strong buy" for the first coverage [3]