事件：公司2025 年上半年实现营收/归母净利润/扣非归母净利润412.92/43.68/41.98 亿元，同 比-9.38%/+31.34%/+31.81%；其中Q2 单季实现营收/归母净利润/扣非归母净利润222.40/25.57/25.35 亿 元，同比-8.24%/+40.26%/+39.58%。公司公告中期利润分配方案，每股派发现金红利0.24 元，拟派发现 金分红总额占25H1 归母净利润的29%。 点评：水泥熟料销量基本持平，表现优于行业，吨成本下降促进吨毛利显著提升。25 年上半年全国水 泥产量8.15 亿吨，同比下降4.3%，公司水泥熟料自产品销量1.26 亿吨，同比略降0.35%，增速好于全国 水平，彰显龙头经营韧性。25H1 公司水泥熟料自产品收入306.6 亿元，同比增加1.49%，毛利率同比上 升6.9pct 至28.7%；单吨数据来看，我们测算吨均价/吨成本/吨毛利分别同比+4/-13/+18 元至243/174/70 元，吨成本下降主要因燃料及动力成本同比下降15 元/吨，为毛利贡献增量。继续聚焦水泥主业，报告 期内公司顺利签约新疆尧柏项目，进一步完善区域市场布局；未来计划看，公 ...

海螺水泥（600585.SH） 优于大市 2025 中报点评：业绩同比改善，拟首次中期分红 业绩同比改善，并拟首次中期分红。2025H1 公司实现营收 412.9 亿元，同比 -9.4%，其中主营业务收入 348.4 亿元，同比+2.31%，归母净利润 43.7 亿元， 同比+31.3%，扣非归母净利润 42.0 亿元，同比+31.8%，EPS 为 0.83 元/股， 并拟中期分红 10 派 2.4 元（含税）；其中 Q2 单季度实现营收 222.4 亿元， 同比-8.2%，归母净利润 25.6 亿元，同比+40.3%，扣非归母净利润 25.4 亿 元，同比+39.6%，尽管市场需求不足，但受益水泥价格提升及煤炭成本下降 和持续降本控费，业绩同比改善。 水泥盈利改善，国内份额持续巩固，并加大海外拓展。2025H1 公司水泥熟料 自产品销量 1.26 亿吨，同比-0.35%，销量降幅显著好于行业（全国水泥产 量同比-4.3%），测算吨价格/吨成本/吨毛利分别为 244.2/174.2/70.0 元/ 吨，分别同比+4.4/-13.4/+17.8 元/吨；骨料和商混业务分别实现收入 21.1/15.2 亿元，同比 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 8.55 [6][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 35.98 billion in 1H25, a year-on-year decrease of 9.4%, but achieved a net profit of RMB 0.572 billion in Q2, marking a significant turnaround from a loss of RMB 1.49 billion in the same period last year [1][2]. - The company is expected to benefit from the acceleration of key infrastructure projects and the ongoing "anti-involution" measures in the cement industry, which are anticipated to improve pricing and demand dynamics [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company's cement clinker sales decreased by 14.6% year-on-year to 90.52 million tons, which is a larger decline than the national average of 4.3% [2]. - The average price per ton of cement clinker was RMB 251, with a gross profit of RMB 48 per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of RMB 13 and RMB 27 respectively [2]. - The company achieved a gross profit margin of 39.9% in its overseas business, which is significantly higher than its domestic operations [3]. Market Dynamics - The national cement production in 1H25 was 815 million tons, down 4.3% year-on-year, while the average price increased by 5.4% [4]. - The government has emphasized the need to regulate excessive competition and production in the cement industry, which is expected to lead to improved pricing stability [4]. Future Outlook - The company has announced a dividend policy for 2025-2027, committing to distribute at least 50% of its distributable profits as cash dividends, which is consistent with previous years' payout ratios [3]. - The company is projected to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of RMB 0.25, 0.30, and 0.35 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5].

Core Viewpoint - Dongwu Cement (00695) experienced a significant stock price increase of over 25% during trading, with a cumulative rise of more than 100% in the month, reflecting positive market sentiment and expectations for improved financial performance [1] Financial Performance - The company anticipates a reduction in losses to approximately HKD 12.966 million in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of about 67.6% [1] - The expected decrease in losses is attributed to the "anti-involution" policy in the domestic cement industry, which has led to a stabilization and recovery in performance, as well as a slowdown in the overall market demand decline [1] Operational Factors - The company has benefited from the sale of cement clinker production capacity indicators, which generated revenue. These capacity indicators will continue to be replaced by externally purchased clinker supply [1]

Core Viewpoint - Dongwu Cement (00695) has seen a significant stock price increase, with a rise of over 25% in intraday trading and an overall increase of more than 100% in the month [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Dongwu Cement expects its losses in the first half of 2025 to decrease to approximately HKD 12.966 million, representing a year-on-year reduction of about 67.6% [1] - The reduction in losses is attributed to the "anti-involution" policy in the domestic cement industry, which has led to a stabilization and recovery in performance [1] - The slowdown in the overall market demand in China has also contributed to the easing of losses [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The company has benefited from the sale of cement clinker production capacity indicators, which has generated revenue [1] - The production capacity indicators will continue to be replaced by externally purchased clinker supply [1]

东吴水泥(00695)公布，集团预期于2025年上半年的亏损将减少至约1296.6万港元，同比减少约为 67.6%。亏损减少主要是由于(i)国内水泥行业"反内卷"政策带动业绩缓和回升，以及中国整体市场需求 下降放缓;及(ii)出售水泥熟料产能指标取得收益(该等产能指标将持续以外购熟料供应替代)所致。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Dongwu Cement (00695) expects a reduction in losses to approximately HKD 12.966 million in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of about 67.6% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The anticipated reduction in losses is primarily attributed to the "anti-involution" policy in the domestic cement industry, which has led to a stabilization and recovery in performance [1] - Additionally, the slowdown in the overall market demand in China has contributed to the easing of losses [1] Group 2: Operational Changes - The company has generated income from the sale of cement clinker production capacity indicators, which will continue to be replaced by externally purchased clinker supply [1]

Industrial Sector - China's industrial production remains stable, with a recovery in steel and construction material output, showing a week-on-week increase of 3.7%[1] - Daily average pig iron output is higher than the same period last year, indicating a positive trend in steel production[3] - Cement clinker capacity utilization rate has improved, reflecting a rebound in the cement industry[5] Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities decreased by 15.9% year-on-year as of August 8, but the decline rate improved by 2.2 percentage points compared to the previous week[1] - The second-hand housing listing price index fell by 0.27% week-on-week as of July 28, indicating a slight downward trend in property prices[20] Domestic Demand - Movie box office revenue continues to perform strongly, with a daily average of CNY 24.143 million, a year-on-year increase of 98.7%[1] - Retail sales of major home appliances grew by 10.5% year-on-year as of August 1, showing robust consumer demand[25] - The number of domestic flights increased by 8.8% year-on-year, reflecting a recovery in travel activity[26] External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 6.8% year-on-year as of August 3, indicating a positive trend in external trade[30] - The global manufacturing PMI index was at 49.7% in July, down 0.7 percentage points from June, suggesting a slight contraction in manufacturing activity[1] Price Trends - Black raw material futures prices rebounded, with coking coal futures up by 12.3% and rebar futures up by 0.3%[1] - The South China industrial product index fell by 1.0%, while the black raw material index rose by 2.7%[1]

Group 1: Industrial Production - China's industrial production shows signs of optimization, with marginal improvements in raw material production and utilization rates for steel, cement, and glass[1] - Steel construction material production increased by 0.6% week-on-week, while apparent demand for steel construction materials rose by 2.7%[5] - The operating rate for petroleum asphalt and some chemical products in Shandong has also seen recovery[13] Group 2: Real Estate Market - New home sales in 30 major cities decreased by 8.5% year-on-year, but the growth rate improved by 18.8 percentage points compared to the previous week[1] - The average listing price index for second-hand homes fell by 0.45% week-on-week as of July 14[22] Group 3: Domestic Demand - Movie box office revenue averaged 140.65 million yuan per day, a 39.0% increase week-on-week[29] - Retail sales of major home appliances grew by 12.6% year-on-year, with a 2.3 percentage point increase from the previous week[27] - Passenger car retail sales from July 1-20 reached 978,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 11%[30] Group 4: External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 7.5% year-on-year as of July 20, with container throughput growing by 4.3%[32] - South Korea's export value increased by 4.1% year-on-year in the first 20 working days of July, although the growth rate slightly declined compared to June[32] Group 5: Risks - Potential risks include insufficient growth policies, unexpected severity of overseas economic downturns, and escalation of geopolitical conflicts[34]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Huaxin Cement is "Buy-A" with a target price of 15.2 CNY, while the current stock price is 13.25 CNY [5]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.096 to 1.132 billion CNY in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 50% to 55% [1]. - The second quarter of 2025 is projected to see a net profit of 862 to 898 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 55.84% to 62.44% [1]. - Despite a decline in domestic cement demand, the company is likely to benefit from increased overseas sales and improved profitability due to falling coal prices [2][3]. - The China Cement Association's initiatives to optimize supply-side conditions are expected to support price and profitability recovery in the cement industry [3][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company anticipates a significant increase in net profit for H1 2025, with a rise of approximately 365 to 402 million CNY compared to the previous year [1]. - The expected net profit for Q2 2025 is between 862 to 898 million CNY, marking a substantial year-on-year growth [1]. Market Conditions - From January to May 2025, national cement production decreased by 4% year-on-year, with regional variations in production across key areas [2]. - Despite a general decline in domestic demand, cement prices in key sales regions remained high, contributing to improved profitability for the company [2]. Overseas Expansion - The company has made significant strides in international markets, with expected increases in overseas cement sales and profitability due to recent technological upgrades and new production capacities in South Africa, Nigeria, and Brazil [3][9]. - The company is set to benefit from a new cement production line in Mozambique, which will contribute to output in 2025 [3]. Industry Outlook - The cement industry is undergoing supply-side reforms aimed at curbing excessive production and low-price competition, which is expected to gradually improve the supply-demand balance and support price recovery [8][9]. - The company's integrated strategy and high-margin aggregate business are anticipated to enhance overall performance in the coming years [9].