宏 2025 年 11 月 24 日 中国宏观周报（2025 年 11 月第 3 周） 农产品批发价季节性回落 证券分析师 平安观点： 观 报 告 宏 观 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 张璐 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522100001 ZHANGLU150@pingan.com.cn 常艺馨 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522080003 CHANGYIXIN050@pingan.com.cn 从高频数据观察，本周部分行业生产步入淡季，边际有所调整；需求端存在韧 性，电影票房及线下出行增速提升，新房成交边际企稳，邮政快递揽收恢复。 此外，本周农产品批发价格 200 指数环比由升转降，符合季节性表现。 1. 工业：生产季节性调整。1）原材料方面，本周钢铁建材和板材产量和表观需 求回升，部分化工品开工率提升；浮法玻璃开工率、石油沥青开工率、水泥熟 料产能利用率回落。2）中下游方面，本周纺织聚酯开工率回升，织造业开工 率季节性走弱；汽车全钢胎开工率、半钢胎开工率小幅回落。 2. 地产：新房成交边际企稳。1）销售方面，本周（截至 11 月 21 日）30 大中城 市新房销售面积同比-20.8%，增速较上周提升 ...

格隆汇11月19日丨梅雁吉祥(600868.SH)公布，公司控股子公司梅州市梅雁旋窑水泥有限公司(以下简 称"梅雁旋窑")将其日产2000吨新型干法熟料水泥生产线的60万吨/年水泥熟料产能指标转让，根据相关 产业政策要求，为完成上述转让需关停并拆除窑炉等主体设备。为有效盘活拆除后的相关资产，公司拟 通过公开招标方式对梅雁旋窑部分资产(拟处置报废资产涉及指定的房屋建筑物及机器设备)进行处置， 目前交易对手尚无法确定。 ...

海螺水泥 20251114 摘要 2023 年前三季度全国水泥产量同比下降 5.2%，水泥价格呈现前高后低 走势，PO 42.5 水泥市场平均价格为 372 元/吨，同比下降 0.5%，反映 出需求下行和供需矛盾加剧的市场环境。 海螺水泥前三季度实现不含税营业收入 613 亿元，同比下降 10.1%， 但归属于上市公司股东的净利润为 63.04 亿元，同比增长 21.3%，主 要得益于成本管控和毛利率的提升。 尽管水泥熟料自产品净销量同比下降 0.4%，但海螺水泥通过全流程成 本对标管控，使得水泥熟料自产品综合成本同比降低 18 元/吨（降幅为 9.7%），毛利率同比上升 5.8 个百分点，有效提升了盈利能力。 海螺水泥积极拓展国内外业务布局，包括新疆尧柏项目交割并表，骨料 商砼业务稳步拓展，以及新能源项目的推进，旨在完善市场布局和实现 产业链协同发展。 预计四季度水泥需求仍将延续下滑态势，但整体将好于三季度，全年需 求降幅预计在 7%左右，行业盈利能力面临挑战，需通过错峰生产等措 施稳定价格。 公司坚持有效投资导向，不断扩展国内外业务布局。国内方面，新疆尧柏项目 顺利交割并表，进一步完善了国内市场布局；骨料 ...

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 133.4 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1%, while net profit attributable to shareholders improved significantly to 2.96 billion from a loss of 0.68 billion in the same period last year [1] Cement Sector - Tianshan shares experienced a slight reduction in losses in Q3 2025, with a sales volume of 144.1 million tons, down 12.8% year-on-year, indicating a greater decline than the industry average [2] - The company's Q3 revenue was 18.96 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 12.9%, while net profit was -0.26 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.6% [2] Engineering Sector - China National Materials International's Q3 2025 performance remained stable year-on-year, with a revenue of 32.998 billion, a 3.99% increase, and a net profit of 2.074 billion, a 0.68% increase [3] - The Q3 revenue was 11.322 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.48%, while net profit decreased by 1.18% to 0.653 billion [3] New Materials Sector - China National Materials Technology reported a net profit of 0.48 billion in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 235% [3] - The main business faced challenges due to credit impairment losses in blade business and a temporary decline in fiberglass prices, although prices began to rise in September [3] Gypsum Board Sector - BNBM's gypsum board business faced short-term pressure, with a revenue decline of 2.25% year-on-year for the first three quarters, and a Q3 revenue drop of 6.20% [4] - The company expects revenue growth in waterproof and paint businesses due to its state-owned enterprise background and resource advantages [4] - Q3 net profit was 0.657 billion, a year-on-year decline of 29.47% [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8][9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 133.4 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1%, while the attributable net profit was 2.96 billion, showing significant improvement compared to a loss of 0.68 billion in the same period last year. The estimated attributable net profit for Q3 2025 is 1.6 billion, up 20% from 1.33 billion in the same period last year [2][4]. Segment Summaries 1. **Cement Segment**: The company experienced a slight reduction in losses in Q3 2025. The national cement production for the first three quarters of 2025 was 1.259 billion tons, down 5.2% year-on-year. The company’s sales of cement and clinker were 144.1 million tons, a decrease of 12.8% year-on-year, indicating a more significant decline than the industry average. The single-quarter revenue for Q3 2025 was 18.96 billion, down 12.9% year-on-year, with a net profit of -0.26 billion, an increase of 22.6% year-on-year [5][6]. 2. **Engineering Segment**: The engineering business showed stable growth, with a total revenue of 32.998 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, up 3.99% year-on-year. The Q3 2025 single-quarter revenue was 11.322 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.48%, while the net profit was 0.653 billion, down 1.18% year-on-year [6]. 3. **New Materials Segment**: The new materials segment reported a net profit of 0.48 billion in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 235%. The main business saw some marginal changes, with a decrease in prices for fiberglass yarn. However, there was an improvement in the AI electronic cloth business due to increased demand and better yield rates, resulting in a net profit margin of approximately 5.7%, up 3.5 percentage points year-on-year [6][7]. 4. **North New Materials**: The gypsum board business faced short-term pressure, with a revenue decline of 2.25% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, and a 6.20% decline in Q3. Despite this, the waterproof business is expected to maintain growth due to the company's strong background and funding advantages [7].

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Shangfeng Cement has shown significant volatility, with a year-to-date increase of 57.47%, but recent declines in the short term indicate potential market fluctuations [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On November 7, Shangfeng Cement's stock rose by 2.31%, reaching 11.07 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 40.18 million CNY and a turnover rate of 0.38%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 10.73 billion CNY [1]. - The stock has experienced a decline of 1.95% over the last five trading days and 5.38% over the last 20 days, while showing a 19.42% increase over the last 60 days [1]. - The stock has appeared on the "Dragon and Tiger List" once this year, with the most recent appearance on July 23, where it recorded a net purchase of 6.31 million CNY [1]. Group 2: Company Overview - Shangfeng Cement, established on March 6, 1997, and listed on December 18, 1996, is located in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, and specializes in the production and sale of cement and related materials [2]. - The company's revenue composition includes cement (69.85%), clinker (16.78%), sand and gravel aggregates (6.20%), concrete (2.76%), environmental disposal (2.25%), other businesses (1.96%), and real estate (0.21%) [2]. - As of October 31, the number of shareholders increased to 43,400, with an average of 22,322 circulating shares per person, a decrease of 4.05% [2]. Group 3: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Shangfeng Cement reported a revenue of 3.598 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 5.69%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 30.56% to 528 million CNY [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 3.95 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 1.318 billion CNY distributed over the past three years [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Ningxia Autonomous Region's government has mandated a staggered production schedule for the cement industry from 2025 to 2026, requiring a total of 216 days of kiln shutdown to reduce air pollution during the heating season and to promote industry health [1][4]. Group 1: Staggered Production Requirements - All cement clinker production lines in the region are required to implement staggered production as per the directives from the State Council and relevant ministries [4]. - The staggered shutdown will last for 136 days during the winter heating season from November 15, 2025, to March 31, 2026, and 80 days during the summer and autumn non-heating season [4][5]. Group 2: Implementation and Compliance - All cement production lines must simultaneously start and stop production, with strict adherence to the mandated shutdown days [5]. - Companies producing calcium carbide slag cement must implement measures such as increasing storage or maintenance to comply with the staggered shutdown requirements [5]. Group 3: Incentives for Compliance - Companies that achieve energy-saving and carbon reduction standards may receive an extension of up to 8 days for kiln operation based on specific criteria [6][7]. - The extension days cannot be combined and can be transferred to other companies [7]. Group 4: Management and Oversight - Local industrial and environmental departments are tasked with ensuring compliance and may conduct inspections to enforce the staggered production schedule [8][9]. - The Ningxia Cement Industry Association will monitor market conditions and provide recommendations for staggered production, while also encouraging self-regulation among companies [9].

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Shangfeng Cement has shown a significant increase of 56.05% year-to-date, despite a slight decline in recent trading days, indicating potential volatility in investor sentiment [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On November 5, Shangfeng Cement's stock rose by 2.14%, reaching a price of 10.97 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 93.65 million CNY and a turnover rate of 0.90% [1]. - The stock has experienced a decline of 0.72% over the last five trading days and a 0.45% decline over the last twenty days, while showing a 23.54% increase over the last sixty days [1]. - The company has appeared on the "Dragon and Tiger List" once this year, with the most recent appearance on July 23, where it recorded a net purchase of 6.31 million CNY [1]. Group 2: Company Overview - Shangfeng Cement, established on March 6, 1997, and listed on December 18, 1996, is located in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, and specializes in the production and sale of cement and related materials [2]. - The company's revenue composition includes 69.85% from cement, 16.78% from clinker, 6.20% from aggregates, 2.76% from concrete, 2.25% from environmental disposal, and 0.21% from real estate [2]. - As of October 31, the number of shareholders increased to 43,400, with an average of 22,322 circulating shares per person, a decrease of 4.05% [2]. Group 3: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Shangfeng Cement reported a revenue of 3.598 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 5.69%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 30.56% to 528 million CNY [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 3.95 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 1.318 billion CNY distributed over the last three years [3]. - As of September 30, 2025, the largest shareholder among the top ten circulating shareholders is Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 9.2074 million shares, a decrease of 1.0017 million shares from the previous period [3].

Core Insights - The launch of the container service by YN Energy Holdings marks the official opening of the "Yulu Convenient Sea Passage" intermodal logistics project, enhancing logistics connectivity between Henan and the eastern coastal regions [1][2] - The project is expected to significantly improve the logistics landscape in the region, reducing overall logistics costs and transportation time for exports [2] Group 1: Logistics Development - A container train carrying 3,100 tons of chemical coal has departed from the Henan Coal Storage and Distribution Trading Center, establishing a new logistics link [1] - The intermodal operation at Shandong Port has seen a 53.3% year-on-year increase, with 114,000 TEUs handled in the first three quarters of 2025 [1] - The logistics channel focuses on iron ore transportation between Rizhao Port and Hebi Shifeng Station, with an expected annual shipment volume of 360,000 tons [1] Group 2: Infrastructure and Capacity - The Henan Coal Storage and Distribution Trading Center has established two coal storage bases with a static storage capacity of 2.25 million tons and an annual dispatch capacity of 20 million tons [1] - The integration of the Wazhi Railway and Jingguang Railway enhances the logistics capabilities, creating a new "inland storage—railway direct—port export" logistics channel [2] - The container business will focus on heavy goods such as premium coal, minerals, steel, cement clinker, and high-value-added chemical products, promoting versatile logistics solutions [2]

Core Viewpoint - Jinyu Jidong, a leading cement producer in Northern China, has shown competitive advantages in market control and resource ownership, but faces challenges in profitability compared to industry leaders [1][2]. Business Overview - Established in May 1994 and listed in June 1996, Jinyu Jidong specializes in the production and sale of cement and related materials, including aggregates and additives [1]. - The company operates within the building materials sector, specifically in cement manufacturing, and is categorized under various concepts such as nuclear power and superconductors [1]. Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, Jinyu Jidong reported revenue of 18.575 billion, ranking 5th in the industry, surpassing the average revenue of 18.01 billion but significantly trailing behind the top competitors [2]. - The net profit for the same period was 16.2662 million, placing the company 11th in the industry and well below the average net profit of 589 million [2]. Financial Ratios - As of Q3 2025, the company's debt-to-asset ratio stood at 49.59%, slightly down from 50.17% year-on-year but still above the industry average of 44.65% [3]. - The gross profit margin improved to 21.06%, up from 18.13% year-on-year, exceeding the industry average of 20.31% [3]. Executive Compensation - The chairman, Liu Yu, received a salary of 900,300, an increase of 642,300 from the previous year, while the general manager, Wei Weidong, earned 901,400, up by 124,700 [4]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of A-share shareholders increased by 0.28% to 78,100, with an average holding of 33,700 shares, a decrease of 0.28% [5]. - The top ten shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which increased its holdings by 3.5051 million shares [5]. Market Strategy and Outlook - The company has made significant strides in reducing losses in H1 2025, with improved pricing strategies in core markets and successful acquisitions enhancing resource reserves [5]. - Analysts predict a gradual recovery in profitability, with net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 set at 270 million, 590 million, and 880 million respectively [6].