Group 1 - Cement stocks have shown significant gains, with China National Building Material rising 6.84% to HKD 6.09, Anhui Conch Cement up 4.21% to HKD 25.26, and Huaxin Cement increasing by 3.66% to HKD 17.26 [1] - Recent reports indicate a decline in cement prices across various regions in China, with weak demand in Northeast China and price increases in Northwest regions stabilizing after initial hikes [1] - The cement market in East China saw price increases of 20-30 CNY/ton before the holiday, but most prices have returned to pre-increase levels [1] Group 2 - In September, the national average cement price was 338 CNY/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 2 CNY/ton, and the gross profit per ton for cement companies was 58 CNY, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3 CNY [2] - The cement sector reported revenues of 118.1 billion CNY in H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.7%, but net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 1487% to 5.2 billion CNY [2] - The industry is expected to see gradual improvement in the second half of the year due to a combination of supply-side production controls and demand-side infrastructure support [2]

Core Viewpoint - The national cement price index has decreased, indicating a downward trend in the cement market, with a 1.59% month-on-month decline and a 16.78% year-on-year drop [1] Regional Summaries East China Region - In Jiangsu, major companies have reduced high-standard cement prices by 20 yuan/ton at the end of September and an additional 10 yuan/ton from October 11, returning to pre-increase levels [5] - In Zhejiang, some companies have quietly lowered prices by 10-30 yuan/ton, although some large manufacturers remain firm [6] - In Anhui, after a price increase of 20-30 yuan/ton in late September, prices have since adjusted back to previous levels [6] - In Fujian, leading companies attempted a price increase of 20 yuan/ton in early September, but prices have since dropped by 10 yuan/ton [6] - In Shandong, some companies raised prices by 30 yuan/ton, but actual increases were limited to around 10 yuan/ton in certain areas [6] Central South Region - In Guangdong, construction progress has been slow post-holiday, leading to a price drop of 10-15 yuan/ton to boost sales [9] - In Hubei, major companies announced price increases of 30-50 yuan/ton, but overall demand remains weak, complicating execution [9] - In Hunan, attempts to raise prices by 30 yuan/ton have seen limited success due to high inventory levels [10] Southwest Region - In Sichuan and Chongqing, the market is under pressure from both rainy weather and weak demand, leading to price declines of 10-20 yuan/ton [12] - In Yunnan, prices have remained stable, but actual sales have only reached 30-40% of capacity [12] - In Guizhou, ongoing low demand has led to a weak pricing environment, with some companies showing slight price reductions [12] Northwest Region - In Ningxia, price increases of 20 yuan/ton were attempted but faced weak demand [14] - In Shaanxi, prices have stabilized, while in Qinghai, demand has contracted further [14] North China Region - In the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area, price changes have been minimal, with attempts to raise prices facing challenges due to weak demand [16] - In Shanxi, prices have increased by 10-30 yuan/ton, but weak construction demand has hindered execution [16] Northeast Region - In the Northeast, price increases announced before the holiday have not materialized, with demand remaining weak [18] - Future market predictions suggest a potential slight recovery in demand post-holiday, but overall levels will still be significantly lower than previous years [18]

Group 1 - Cement stocks collectively declined, with China National Building Material down 4.71% to HKD 4.65, Jinyu Group down 4.71% to HKD 0.81, Anhui Conch Cement down 4.03% to HKD 22.6, and Huaxin Cement down 2.12% to HKD 12.9 [1] - As of July 25, the national cement price index was reported at 319.64 points, a month-on-month decrease of 1.58% and a year-on-year decrease of 11.30% [1] - The national cement market continued to operate weakly, with significant regional differentiation; North China showed weak price support, while Northeast China faced soft demand hindering price increases [1] Group 2 - Tianfeng Securities noted that in the short term, cement prices are slightly declining due to the off-season, but the downside is limited; prices are expected to rise in August as demand enters the peak season [2] - UBS indicated that despite high market sentiment, the Yajiang hydropower project is a long-term plan with limited immediate impact on company profits; assuming cement orders are distributed by market share and a gross profit of RMB 150 per ton, Tibet Tianlu is expected to achieve an annual profit of approximately RMB 160 million, compared to a loss of RMB 104 million in 2024 [2] - Net profit growth estimates for Huaxin Cement, China National Building Material, and Anhui Conch Cement are approximately 5%, 2%, and 0.4% respectively [2]