Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a 12-month target price of 29.39 CNY, compared to the current stock price of 23.19 CNY [5]. Core Views - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 61.298 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 10.06%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 6.305 billion CNY, an increase of 21.28% year-on-year [2][3]. - The decline in revenue in Q3 2025 was attributed to weakened market demand and low national cement prices, with a year-on-year revenue drop of 11.42% [2]. - The company’s gross profit margin improved year-on-year due to price increases in 2024 and a decrease in energy costs, although Q3 saw a decline in gross margin due to rising coal prices [3]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - For the first three quarters, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 24.30%, up 4.76 percentage points year-on-year, while Q3 gross margin was 22.44%, down 4.75 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The operating cash flow for the first three quarters was approximately 11.1 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.27% [3]. Future Outlook - The current national cement prices are at a five-year low, but there is potential for price support in Q4 due to industry self-discipline and staggered production [4]. - The company’s projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 91.269 billion CNY, 93.170 billion CNY, and 95.273 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.26%, 2.08%, and 2.26% respectively [4]. Financial Projections - The net profit for 2025-2027 is expected to be 8.818 billion CNY, 9.447 billion CNY, and 9.868 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 14.58%, 7.13%, and 4.46% respectively [4].

据悉福建地区主要熟料线企业计划11月继续执行错峰停窑15天/窑。受此带动，加之企业经营压力较大，涨价意愿强 烈。10月28日起省内一些主导企业再次尝试推动上调各品种水泥价格30元/吨。但目前市场来看，水泥熟料库存普遍 高位运行，且需求仍未有明显起色，本轮价格上调落实情况尚待观望。 河北： （来源：水泥网APP） 近期，多地区持续实施错峰停窑，叠加水泥价格长期处于低位，水泥企业经营压力显著加大。为此，多地企业纷纷 通知上调水泥价格，但受需求端持续疲软影响，多次涨价落地效果不及预期。为进一步改善盈利状况，多地企业计 划继续推涨水泥价格。 当前全国水泥价格指数处于全年低位 川渝： 根据市场反馈，川渝地区错峰停窑执行情况整体良好，部分企业库存水平已降至中位区间，加之前期各地区水泥价 格持续上涨，落实情况欠佳，企业复价意愿强烈。为提升盈利，27-29日起，四川成都、乐山、眉山、雅安、甘孜以 及重庆主城地区一些主要厂家再次通知上调水泥价格20-30元/吨，后续执行情况待跟进观察。 福建： 主要受以下方面因素影响：一是季节性需求改善，第四季度为传统施工旺季，"十四五"项目进入收官阶段，部分"十 五五"项目开始启动，预计四季 ...

Group 1 - Cement stocks have shown significant gains, with China National Building Material rising 6.84% to HKD 6.09, Anhui Conch Cement up 4.21% to HKD 25.26, and Huaxin Cement increasing by 3.66% to HKD 17.26 [1] - Recent reports indicate a decline in cement prices across various regions in China, with weak demand in Northeast China and price increases in Northwest regions stabilizing after initial hikes [1] - The cement market in East China saw price increases of 20-30 CNY/ton before the holiday, but most prices have returned to pre-increase levels [1] Group 2 - In September, the national average cement price was 338 CNY/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 2 CNY/ton, and the gross profit per ton for cement companies was 58 CNY, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3 CNY [2] - The cement sector reported revenues of 118.1 billion CNY in H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.7%, but net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 1487% to 5.2 billion CNY [2] - The industry is expected to see gradual improvement in the second half of the year due to a combination of supply-side production controls and demand-side infrastructure support [2]

Core Viewpoint - The national cement price index has decreased, indicating a downward trend in the cement market, with a 1.59% month-on-month decline and a 16.78% year-on-year drop [1] Regional Summaries East China Region - In Jiangsu, major companies have reduced high-standard cement prices by 20 yuan/ton at the end of September and an additional 10 yuan/ton from October 11, returning to pre-increase levels [5] - In Zhejiang, some companies have quietly lowered prices by 10-30 yuan/ton, although some large manufacturers remain firm [6] - In Anhui, after a price increase of 20-30 yuan/ton in late September, prices have since adjusted back to previous levels [6] - In Fujian, leading companies attempted a price increase of 20 yuan/ton in early September, but prices have since dropped by 10 yuan/ton [6] - In Shandong, some companies raised prices by 30 yuan/ton, but actual increases were limited to around 10 yuan/ton in certain areas [6] Central South Region - In Guangdong, construction progress has been slow post-holiday, leading to a price drop of 10-15 yuan/ton to boost sales [9] - In Hubei, major companies announced price increases of 30-50 yuan/ton, but overall demand remains weak, complicating execution [9] - In Hunan, attempts to raise prices by 30 yuan/ton have seen limited success due to high inventory levels [10] Southwest Region - In Sichuan and Chongqing, the market is under pressure from both rainy weather and weak demand, leading to price declines of 10-20 yuan/ton [12] - In Yunnan, prices have remained stable, but actual sales have only reached 30-40% of capacity [12] - In Guizhou, ongoing low demand has led to a weak pricing environment, with some companies showing slight price reductions [12] Northwest Region - In Ningxia, price increases of 20 yuan/ton were attempted but faced weak demand [14] - In Shaanxi, prices have stabilized, while in Qinghai, demand has contracted further [14] North China Region - In the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area, price changes have been minimal, with attempts to raise prices facing challenges due to weak demand [16] - In Shanxi, prices have increased by 10-30 yuan/ton, but weak construction demand has hindered execution [16] Northeast Region - In the Northeast, price increases announced before the holiday have not materialized, with demand remaining weak [18] - Future market predictions suggest a potential slight recovery in demand post-holiday, but overall levels will still be significantly lower than previous years [18]

Group 1 - Cement stocks collectively declined, with China National Building Material down 4.71% to HKD 4.65, Jinyu Group down 4.71% to HKD 0.81, Anhui Conch Cement down 4.03% to HKD 22.6, and Huaxin Cement down 2.12% to HKD 12.9 [1] - As of July 25, the national cement price index was reported at 319.64 points, a month-on-month decrease of 1.58% and a year-on-year decrease of 11.30% [1] - The national cement market continued to operate weakly, with significant regional differentiation; North China showed weak price support, while Northeast China faced soft demand hindering price increases [1] Group 2 - Tianfeng Securities noted that in the short term, cement prices are slightly declining due to the off-season, but the downside is limited; prices are expected to rise in August as demand enters the peak season [2] - UBS indicated that despite high market sentiment, the Yajiang hydropower project is a long-term plan with limited immediate impact on company profits; assuming cement orders are distributed by market share and a gross profit of RMB 150 per ton, Tibet Tianlu is expected to achieve an annual profit of approximately RMB 160 million, compared to a loss of RMB 104 million in 2024 [2] - Net profit growth estimates for Huaxin Cement, China National Building Material, and Anhui Conch Cement are approximately 5%, 2%, and 0.4% respectively [2]