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海螺水泥(600585):海外增长助力销量降幅优于行业,成本驱动盈利改善,分红率同比提升
Guotou Securities· 2026-03-25 10:14
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a 6-month target price of 27.06 CNY, compared to the current stock price of 23.20 CNY as of March 24, 2026 [2]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 82.532 billion CNY for 2025, a year-over-year decrease of 9.33%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 5.42% to 8.113 billion CNY [1]. - The decline in cement clinker sales was less than the industry average, primarily due to growth in overseas and export sales. The company's gross profit margin improved due to a larger decrease in coal costs compared to price reductions [1][2]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.61 CNY per share for 2025, resulting in a cash dividend payout ratio of 55.29%, an increase of 6.61 percentage points year-over-year [1]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2025, the company's self-produced cement clinker sales revenue was 60.966 billion CNY, down 7.42% year-over-year, with a sales volume of 26.5 million tons, a decrease of 1.13% [1]. - The average selling price for cement was 230.06 CNY per ton, down 15.65 CNY per ton year-over-year, while the gross profit per ton increased by 5.18 CNY to 63.76 CNY per ton [1]. - The company’s sales gross margin for 2025 was 24.16%, an increase of 2.46 percentage points year-over-year, with specific margins for different products showing improvements [2]. Future Projections - The company is expected to see revenue growth in the coming years, with projected revenues of 83.161 billion CNY, 84.029 billion CNY, and 84.879 billion CNY for 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively, reflecting year-over-year growth rates of 0.76%, 1.04%, and 1.01% [7]. - Net profits are projected to increase to 8.716 billion CNY, 9.646 billion CNY, and 10.053 billion CNY for the same years, with growth rates of 7.43%, 10.66%, and 4.23% [7].