水泥盈利修复
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海螺水泥(600585):盈利阶段性承压,四季度价格有望好转
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-11-04 04:15
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 29.10 CNY, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within six months [4][7]. Core Views - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.94 billion CNY in Q3, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. For the first three quarters, the company achieved operating revenue of 61.3 billion CNY, a decrease of 10.1% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 21.3% to 6.3 billion CNY [1][4]. - The decline in revenue in Q3 is attributed to falling cement prices, exacerbated by seasonal demand weakness and market liquidity issues. The average cement price in East China was approximately 330 CNY/ton, down 41 CNY/ton from the previous quarter and 25 CNY/ton year-on-year. However, there is an expectation for profit recovery in Q4 as prices have likely bottomed out and supply-side adjustments are anticipated [2][4]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 24.3%, up 4.8 percentage points year-on-year, while the Q3 gross margin was 22.4%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.6 percentage points but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 4.8 percentage points. The company has a strong cash position with 62.6 billion CNY in cash and financial assets, indicating significant potential for future dividends [3][4]. Financial Summary - The company has a clinker capacity of 276 million tons, cement capacity of 407 million tons, and aggregate capacity of 167 million tons. The operating cash flow for the first three quarters was a net inflow of 11.1 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 7.2% [4][6]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders has been adjusted downwards for 2025 to 8.94 billion CNY, reflecting the impact of lower prices in Q3 [4][6]. - The company’s financial metrics indicate a projected P/E ratio of 11.82 for 2023, decreasing to 10.57 by 2027, and a P/B ratio of 0.67 for 2023, slightly declining over the forecast period [6][14].