水风光一体化多能互补清洁能源基地
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国电电力(600795):火电发电边际大幅改善五站连投在即水电成长可期
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-10-28 06:51
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a projected PE ratio of 13, 11, and 10 for the years 2025 to 2027 respectively [7][8]. Core Insights - The company's performance in the first three quarters of 2025 showed a total revenue of 125.205 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 6.777 billion yuan, down 26.3% year-on-year. However, the non-recurring net profit increased by 37.99% [7][8]. - The recovery in thermal power generation and cost reduction are expected to enhance profitability. The company's thermal power generation volume reached 2,549.31 billion kWh, a decrease of 2.17% year-on-year, but showed a significant recovery in Q3 with a growth of 6.93% [7][8]. - The company anticipates growth in hydropower generation with the upcoming commissioning of five new hydropower stations, which is expected to contribute to rapid growth in hydropower output starting next year [7][8]. - The company has seen a stable growth in new energy installations, with a total installed capacity of 28,997.8 MW, although the growth rate for wind and solar power generation has slowed [7][8]. - Cost management has been effective, with management expenses down 23.39% and financial expenses down 7.69% in the first three quarters of 2025 [7][8]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The total revenue forecast for 2025 is 173.973 billion yuan, with a projected net profit of 7.332 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 25.4% [6][7]. - The company plans to maintain a cash dividend policy of at least 60% of the annual net profit, with a minimum dividend of 0.22 yuan per share, resulting in a current dividend yield of no less than 4.14% [7][8].