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专栏丨不降反升,美国新关税让瑞士“目瞪口呆”
Xin Hua Wang· 2025-08-11 01:08
新华社日内瓦8月10日电 题:不降反升,美国新关税让瑞士"目瞪口呆" 新华社记者陈俊侠 焦倩 在美国近期公布的对69个贸易伙伴输美商品适用的关税税率中,针对瑞士的税率令人意外地高达39%。 这一税率是欧洲国家中最高的,比4月初美国宣布的31%税率提高了8个百分点。随着新关税7日正式生 效,瑞士出口美国近六成商品受到影响。 瑞士自认为与美国长期保持良好的双边关系和紧密的经济联系,此前谈判中一度释放出有望就10%税率 达成协议的乐观预期,如今却不降反升,这一痛击让瑞士举国"目瞪口呆"。瑞士西区经济发展署前署 长、经济学家菲利普·莫尼耶说,瑞士舆论此前普遍持乐观态度,认为最理想状态是10%甚至更低的税 率,最起码不应超过20%。瑞士政府发表声明说,对美方关税政策"深表遗憾",并称这一税率与两国在 过去几个月里进行密集磋商后达成的联合声明草案内容存在"重大偏差"。 瑞士经济高度依赖出口,约18%的出口商品销往美国,未来势必将因美国加征高关税而面临较大压力。 同时,美国对欧盟、日本、英国等征收的关税税率都低于瑞士,也使得瑞士商品对美出口处于劣势。 为扭转不利局面,瑞士政府已明确宣布将采取两大措施:一是将继续与美国谈判以 ...
瑞士央行面临艰难抉择:负利率或外汇干预应对瑞郎升值压力
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-04-28 16:06
Core Viewpoint - The high-pressure tariff policy of the Trump administration is pushing Switzerland, one of the world's most stable economies, towards a potential return to a "negative interest rate era" due to the soaring demand for the Swiss franc as a safe haven amidst global trade turmoil [1][3]. Group 1: Swiss Franc's Safe-Haven Status and Challenges - The Swiss franc is recognized as one of the three major safe-haven currencies, but its status comes at a high cost for the Swiss National Bank (SNB) in terms of monetary policy autonomy and capital flow management [2]. - The recent surge in the Swiss franc has created a self-reinforcing cycle: increased global risks lead to capital inflow into Switzerland, which in turn puts upward pressure on the currency, negatively impacting the economic fundamentals and further stimulating demand for safe-haven assets [2]. - The USD/CHF exchange rate recently fell to 0.8040, nearing historical lows, marking the first time since 2015 that it approached the 0.80 level [2]. Group 2: Analyst Warnings and Central Bank Statements - Analysts warn that the rapid appreciation of the Swiss franc could lead to deflationary pressures in Switzerland, exacerbated by the economic growth impacts of the trade war initiated by President Trump [3]. - The SNB faces a dilemma: it needs to curb the appreciation of its currency to support its export-driven economy while also being cautious of provoking a backlash from the U.S., which has threatened high tariffs on Switzerland [3]. - SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel highlighted the "very high level" of uncertainty in trade policies, warning that such uncertainty could harm the long-term process of global economic integration [3]. Group 3: Market Intervention Concerns - The SNB has not conducted large-scale interventions in the Swiss franc market for nearly a year and a half, with a recent purchase of approximately 100 million Swiss francs (about 113 million USD) in foreign exchange [4]. - Schlegel's comments have raised market concerns about the potential for further interest rate cuts and significant market interventions to curb the strength of the Swiss franc, although the bank is not inclined to reintroduce negative interest rates as expected by the market [4]. - Analysts express concerns that large-scale market interventions could lead to Switzerland being labeled a "currency manipulator" by the U.S., complicating the SNB's decision-making process regarding interest rates and market interventions [5].