Core Viewpoint - The high-pressure tariff policy of the Trump administration is pushing Switzerland, one of the world's most stable economies, towards a potential return to a "negative interest rate era" due to the soaring demand for the Swiss franc as a safe haven amidst global trade turmoil [1][3]. Group 1: Swiss Franc's Safe-Haven Status and Challenges - The Swiss franc is recognized as one of the three major safe-haven currencies, but its status comes at a high cost for the Swiss National Bank (SNB) in terms of monetary policy autonomy and capital flow management [2]. - The recent surge in the Swiss franc has created a self-reinforcing cycle: increased global risks lead to capital inflow into Switzerland, which in turn puts upward pressure on the currency, negatively impacting the economic fundamentals and further stimulating demand for safe-haven assets [2]. - The USD/CHF exchange rate recently fell to 0.8040, nearing historical lows, marking the first time since 2015 that it approached the 0.80 level [2]. Group 2: Analyst Warnings and Central Bank Statements - Analysts warn that the rapid appreciation of the Swiss franc could lead to deflationary pressures in Switzerland, exacerbated by the economic growth impacts of the trade war initiated by President Trump [3]. - The SNB faces a dilemma: it needs to curb the appreciation of its currency to support its export-driven economy while also being cautious of provoking a backlash from the U.S., which has threatened high tariffs on Switzerland [3]. - SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel highlighted the "very high level" of uncertainty in trade policies, warning that such uncertainty could harm the long-term process of global economic integration [3]. Group 3: Market Intervention Concerns - The SNB has not conducted large-scale interventions in the Swiss franc market for nearly a year and a half, with a recent purchase of approximately 100 million Swiss francs (about 113 million USD) in foreign exchange [4]. - Schlegel's comments have raised market concerns about the potential for further interest rate cuts and significant market interventions to curb the strength of the Swiss franc, although the bank is not inclined to reintroduce negative interest rates as expected by the market [4]. - Analysts express concerns that large-scale market interventions could lead to Switzerland being labeled a "currency manipulator" by the U.S., complicating the SNB's decision-making process regarding interest rates and market interventions [5].