美元兑瑞郎自0.7871低点企稳反弹，当前交投于0.8050附近，位于布林带中轨0.7976上方。布林带上轨 位于0.8065，下轨在0.7887，整体带宽收窄，显示波动率有所减弱，市场处于蓄势阶段。 汇价在上行过 程中，已逼近关键阻力位0.8100，该位置与布林上轨及前期密集成交区形成共振，短期存在一定的技术 性压力。 周四（8月14日）美元兑瑞郎汇率今日开盘报0.8042，昨日收盘于0.8043，截至发稿前美元/瑞郎报 0.8055，涨幅0.15%，最高价0.8058，最低价0.8042。瑞士7月CPI年率小幅上升，但仍接近负值，表明瑞 士央行可能仍在今年晚些时候将利率降至零以下。 瑞士统计局表示，7月份CPI较去年同期上涨0.2%，而6月份的CPI年率为0.1%。最新数据发布之前，美 国对大多数瑞士商品征收了令人震惊的39%关税，这一税率高于特朗普政府早些时候发出的信号。瑞士 央行6月将基准利率降至零，试图抑制对瑞士法郎的需求。瑞士法郎一直是投资者青睐的避险货币。瑞 郎的升值减少了对瑞士出口产品的需求，其中包括药品和奢侈手表。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report by Deutsche Bank analyst Michael Pfister indicates that the Swiss Franc is expected to experience a slight rebound if Switzerland and the United States reach a trade agreement before the Thursday deadline. If no agreement is reached, Swiss exports to the U.S. will face a 39% tariff [1] Group 1 - Pfister suggests that Swiss officials may significantly increase their offers to the U.S. side [1] - It is likely that both parties will eventually reach an agreement, but the cost will be much higher than initially anticipated [1] - If an agreement is reached, the Euro to Swiss Franc exchange rate may stabilize around 0.9300 [1] Group 2 - In the event of escalating trade tensions, the Swiss Franc may weaken [1]

Core Viewpoint - Analysts indicate that the imposition of a staggering 39% tariff by the U.S. on Switzerland is expected to negatively impact the performance of the Swiss franc compared to other G10 currencies [1] Group 1 - The Swiss franc has underperformed against other G10 currencies following the U.S. tariff announcement [1] - Forex traders are using this situation as an opportunity to push up the USD/CHF and EUR/CHF pairs before the European trading session [1] - The lack of liquidity during the Asian trading session may lead traders to excessively sell the Swiss franc [1]

Core Viewpoint - The US Dollar Index increased by 0.15% on July 31, closing at 99.968, indicating a strengthening of the dollar against a basket of major currencies [1] Currency Exchange Rates - 1 Euro was exchanged for 1.1427 USD, up from 1.1425 USD the previous trading day [1] - 1 British Pound was exchanged for 1.3220 USD, down from 1.3238 USD the previous trading day [1] - 1 USD was exchanged for 150.76 Japanese Yen, up from 149.35 Yen the previous trading day [1] - 1 USD was exchanged for 0.8122 Swiss Francs, down from 0.8134 Francs the previous trading day [1] - 1 USD was exchanged for 1.3846 Canadian Dollars, up from 1.3816 Dollars the previous trading day [1] - 1 USD was exchanged for 9.7724 Swedish Krona, down from 9.7837 Krona the previous trading day [1]

Core Viewpoint - In times of market volatility, investors typically turn to safe-haven assets such as gold, U.S. Treasuries, and currencies like the yen, dollar, and Swiss franc. However, the Singapore dollar is emerging as a potential new safe-haven currency due to its defensive characteristics during financial stress, particularly in Asia [1][3]. Group 1: Singapore Dollar's Emerging Role - The Singapore dollar has been functioning as a "quasi-safe-haven" currency, especially in Asia and emerging markets, despite its global status being lower than traditional safe-haven currencies [3]. - Year-to-date, the Singapore dollar has appreciated approximately 6% against the U.S. dollar, with projections from Jefferies suggesting it could reach parity with the dollar within five years [3]. - Analysts attribute the Singapore dollar's safe-haven attributes to Singapore's robust institutional framework, solid economic foundation, and prudent fiscal policies [3]. Group 2: Unique Monetary Policy Framework - Singapore's unique monetary policy framework provides "extraordinary stability" to the Singapore dollar, allowing it to float within an undisclosed policy band against a basket of major trading partner currencies [3]. - The width of this policy band is estimated to be around 4%, which effectively reduces short-term volatility risks [3]. Group 3: Challenges to Global Safe-Haven Status - Despite its potential, the Singapore dollar faces challenges in becoming a global safe-haven currency, as it currently holds only 2% of the foreign exchange market share compared to 88% for the U.S. dollar, 17% for the yen, and 5% for the Swiss franc [4]. - The small size of Singapore's economy limits the trading volume and market depth of the Singapore dollar compared to the yen and Swiss franc [6]. - The high export-to-GDP ratio of 178.8% makes the Monetary Authority of Singapore cautious about excessive appreciation of the Singapore dollar, as it could harm competitiveness [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Experts believe that while the Singapore dollar may not rival the U.S. dollar or yen, it could gradually achieve a status similar to that of the Swiss franc [6]. - The increasing global search for safe-haven assets may position the Singapore dollar favorably in the future, with some analysts suggesting it could evolve from an Asian safe haven to a global one over time [6].

Core Viewpoint - In uncertain times, investors are turning to safe-haven assets such as gold, U.S. Treasury bonds, and currencies like the yen, dollar, and Swiss franc, which are expected to retain or increase value during market turmoil. However, the Singapore dollar is emerging as a potential new alternative safe-haven currency [1]. Group 1: Singapore Dollar as a Safe-Haven Currency - Analysts suggest that the Singapore dollar (SGD) is acting as a "quasi-safe-haven" currency, particularly within Asia and emerging markets, despite not having the same global status as traditional safe-haven currencies [1]. - The SGD has appreciated approximately 6% against the U.S. dollar this year, with Jefferies predicting it may reach parity with the dollar within the next five years [1]. - Singapore's strong institutional framework, resilient economic base, and robust policy-making, especially in fiscal prudence, contribute to the SGD's potential as a safe haven [1]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Stability - Singapore's monetary policy framework provides "extraordinary stability" to the SGD, which is sought after by safe-haven funds. Unlike most countries, Singapore manages its currency through a policy band rather than interest rates, allowing the SGD to fluctuate within a set range [2]. - The estimated width of this policy band is around 4%, which limits volatility and provides more certainty in the short term [2]. Group 3: Challenges to Global Acceptance - Despite the positive trajectory, the SGD faces challenges in becoming a widely accepted global safe-haven currency, primarily due to the small size of its market. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) reported that the SGD accounted for only 2% of the foreign exchange market, compared to 88% for the U.S. dollar [3]. - The managed nature of Singapore's currency policy, while providing stability, also restricts market speculation and large position builds, limiting liquidity and depth, which are critical characteristics sought by investors in a true global safe haven [3]. - Singapore's economy is heavily reliant on exports, with exports projected to account for 178.8% of GDP in 2024, which may also pose challenges for the SGD's global standing [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Experts believe that the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) may not want the SGD to appreciate excessively, as this could undermine Singapore's competitiveness [4]. - The SGD could play a significant role in diversifying currency risk, with potential to be viewed as "Asia's Swiss franc" over time, although it may not reach the status of the yen or dollar [4]. - The establishment of a safe-haven status typically requires decades of crisis response behavior, and while the SGD has performed well during Asian economic downturns, it has not yet become the preferred safe haven during global economic slowdowns [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Singapore dollar is emerging as a safe-haven currency, but it cannot replace the Japanese yen or Swiss franc [1] Group 1: Currency Performance - Investors are turning to safe-haven assets during uncertain times, including gold, U.S. Treasury bonds, and currencies like the yen, dollar, and Swiss franc [1] - The U.S. dollar, despite being the preferred global reserve currency, has weakened, with the dollar index dropping over 9% year-to-date [1] Group 2: Singapore Dollar Analysis - Analysts suggest that the Singapore dollar may become an alternative choice due to its low volatility and the country's cautious fiscal stance [1] - Singapore's monetary management approach limits large-scale position trading, which may affect the currency's attractiveness [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Concerns over trade have overshadowed the outlook for the Japanese yen [1] - Experts believe that the euro could potentially become a safe-haven currency on par with the Swiss franc [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for the Chinese yuan (RMB) to become a "quasi-safe haven" currency amid increasing global economic uncertainties and the declining attractiveness of traditional safe-haven assets like the US dollar and US Treasury bonds [2][7]. Group 1: Current Financial Market Context - The complexity of China's financial market is partly due to the RMB not being fully convertible and capital controls still in place, which can deter foreign investment during periods of market volatility [1][15]. - The demand for foreign investment in China is increasing, but trade protectionism has led to a cautious international capital sentiment [1][8]. Group 2: Safe Haven Currency Characteristics - Safe haven currencies typically appreciate during global financial crises due to inflows of risk-averse capital, with historical examples including the Swiss franc and Japanese yen [4][5]. - The formation of a safe haven currency requires political stability, sound economic fundamentals, and a high degree of currency usability [5][6]. Group 3: RMB's Potential as a Quasi-Safe Haven Currency - The RMB has begun to exhibit characteristics of a quasi-safe haven currency, supported by China's substantial foreign exchange reserves and a consistent current account surplus [9][10]. - In 2024, foreign investment in RMB-denominated bonds increased significantly, indicating a growing perception of RMB assets as core international assets [10][12]. Group 4: Challenges to RMB's Safe Haven Status - Despite improvements, the RMB's global allocation remains low compared to traditional safe haven currencies, which limits its international appeal [12][15]. - The RMB's exchange rate stability and interest rate attractiveness are better than those of the yen and Swiss franc, but its global market presence is still underdeveloped [12][14]. Group 5: Policy Recommendations for Enhancing RMB's Safe Haven Status - To enhance the intrinsic value of RMB assets, China should focus on maintaining economic growth, managing potential risks, and ensuring policy transparency [17][18]. - Improving cross-border capital flow management and simplifying investment processes for foreign investors can attract more long-term capital [19][20]. - Expanding the offshore RMB market and increasing the variety of RMB-denominated financial products can enhance liquidity and attractiveness [20][21]. - Developing a robust RMB derivatives market will provide investors with necessary risk management tools [22]. - Promoting the use of RMB-denominated bonds as collateral in global markets can significantly enhance their liquidity and appeal [23]. - Engaging in international financial cooperation to establish the RMB's role in a multi-currency system can further solidify its status as a safe haven asset [24].

Group 1 - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised the share of Swiss Franc in global foreign exchange reserves down to 0.18% for the first quarter, consistent with the forecast for the fourth quarter of 2024 [1] - The data released on July 9 indicated errors in the figures for the Australian Dollar and Swiss Franc, leading to this revision [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the stability of the US dollar's reserve share despite the ongoing trend of de-dollarization and the impact of US economic policies under Trump, highlighting the complexities of international currency dynamics and capital flows [1][14]. Group 1: Dollar Reserve Share Stability - As of the end of Q1 this year, the dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves was 57.74%, a slight decrease of 0.05 percentage points from the previous quarter but an increase of 0.46 percentage points from the previous year's low [2][11]. - The dollar's reserve share has remained below 60% for ten consecutive quarters, marking a significant decline from around 70% in the early 2000s, indicating a trend towards a multipolar international monetary system [14][15]. Group 2: Capital Flows and Foreign Investment - In Q1 this year, the net inflow of international securities capital into the US was $447.5 billion, significantly higher than the $43 billion in the same period last year, with private foreign investment showing a notable recovery [6][11]. - Official foreign investment in US securities totaled $65.671 trillion, with a net purchase of $91.5 billion, reflecting a 15.8% increase [11]. Group 3: Composition of Foreign Holdings - Official foreign investors held $38.356 trillion in US Treasury securities, an increase of $175.9 billion from the end of last year, with net purchases of $138.3 billion, a 114% year-on-year increase [8][9]. - The holdings of US stocks by official foreign investors decreased by $112.2 billion, with net sales of $26.9 billion, indicating a shift in investment strategy [9][10]. Group 4: Trends in Other Reserve Currencies - The share of non-traditional reserve currencies has increased, with a cumulative rise of 1.84 percentage points from Q1 2022 to Q1 2025, surpassing the decline in the dollar's share [15]. - The share of gold in global reserves has risen significantly, with central banks increasingly favoring gold as a hedge against economic and geopolitical uncertainties [20][21].