曾被视为"避险常客"的日元，其稳固地位正遭遇越来越多的质疑，不仅让日元承受更大抛售压力，本周更 是跌至八个月来的低位。 尤其是本周，强硬保守派人物高市早苗意外赢得日本执政党领袖选举后，市场对日本政策走向的担忧加 剧，美元兑日元汇率顺势突破150关键关口，日元贬值压力进一步释放。 在日元吸引力下降的同时，投资者正加速转向其他对冲工具。高盛集团和美国银行的策略师认为，瑞士法 郎比日元更可靠且成本更低，本周瑞士法郎兑日元汇率连续创下历史新高，却仍挡不住多头入场。黄金、 白银凭借传统避险属性。 短期来看，全球波动率下降降低了紧急对冲需求，日元融资套利交易重新流行，这让日元逐渐脱离历史上 的避险角色，更容易被投机资金左右。 从亚洲金融危机到俄乌冲突等各类市场动荡时刻，日元总能凭借独特优势成为投资者的"避风港"。原因是 日本长期保持庞大的经常账户盈余，出口贸易带来的持续外汇收入，让日本拥有充足的外汇储备，一旦市 场出现风险，本土投资者会迅速回流资金，增持日元资产，推动日元汇率走高。 同时，过去日本政治体系稳定，政策变动平缓，加上深厚的本土投资者基础，进一步强化了日元的可靠 性，使得它在风险资产暴跌时，总能展现出较强的抗跌 ...

但如今这一惯性思维正受到冲击：一方面，日元作为对冲工具的表现愈发不稳定；另一方面，市场转向黄金等资产、规避主要货币的趋势也削弱 了日元地位。本周，强硬保守派人物高市早苗（Sanae Takaichi）意外赢得日本执政党领袖选举后，美元兑日元汇率突破150这一关键关口。 "从历史上看，我们曾多次从对冲角度做多日元，因为在上一轮周期中，当市场出现大规模避险情绪时，日元的表现相当可靠。"施罗德投资管理 公司（Schroder Investment Management）亚洲多元资产投资主管近藤惠子（Keiko Kondo）表示，"但目前，我们没有足够理由选择这种对冲方式 ——成本更高，可靠性却更低。" 音频由扣子空间生成 在全球局势紧张的时期，日元的避险地位正面临越来越多的质疑，这可能加剧日元抛售压力，该货币本周已跌至八个月低点。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 数十年来，从金融危机到地缘政治冲突，每逢市场动荡，投资者都会转向日元避险。背后逻辑很简单：日本庞大的经常账户盈余、稳定的政治体 系以及深厚的本土投资者基础，使日元在风险资产暴跌时成为可靠的避风港。 日元地位的转变，体现在相关性的重大变化中。近期，美元 ...

智通财经APP获悉，随着市场对日元作为全球压力时期"避风港"地位的怀疑情绪不断加深，这种严峻的负面情绪可能会加剧日 元抛售趋势。在本周，日元汇率(兑美元)已跌至八个月最低点。由于日本国内独特的偏紧缩金融格局以及政治层面开始面临罕 见的不确定性，日元作为传统上的避险与防御性资产的可靠性日益受到市场质疑，投资者们正在转向其他对冲工具选择，例如 领跑全球避险资产乃至多数风险资产的黄金、白银，涨势强于日元的另一避险货币——瑞士法郎，以及有着"新晋避险资产"称 号的比特币。 数十年来，从金融危机到地缘政治危机不断爆发，投资者在市场冲击时往往都会转向日元。背后的逻辑其实很简单：日本巨额 的经常账户顺差、稳健的政治体制与经济增速，以及深厚的国内投资者基础，使其在风险资产暴跌时成为非常可靠的"安全避 风港"。 但这种本能的避险工具如今正经受严峻考验，一方面，日元作为对冲风险工具的表现日益不稳定;另一方面，市场在回避全球 主要货币的交易中不断转向黄金。尤其本周，在保守强硬派高市早苗出人意料地赢得日本执政党党首选举后，日元汇率(兑美 元)甚至突破至关重要的150关口，凸显出持续升温的日元贬值趋势，使得日元的"避险"标签不断被市场 ...

智通财经APP获悉，随着主张采取宽松货币政策的高市早苗成功当选日本自民党总裁，并且几乎确定将成为下一任日本首相，市场预期日本央行将放缓加息 步伐，曾经流行的日元套利交易似乎即将卷土重来。 日元兑主要货币周一全线下跌，原因是投资者押注高市早苗的亲刺激立场将导致日本央行放缓政策紧缩的时间表。日本央行推迟加息很可能会诱使交易员重 新回归所谓的日元套利交易策略，即借入低收益的日元，并买入诸如巴西雷亚尔或澳元等高收益货币，以赚取利差。荷兰合作银行外汇策略主管Jane Foley 表示："市场可能会得出短期内'日元套利交易重新启动'的结论。" 瑞穗银行伦敦分行高级外汇策略师Masayuki Nakajima也认为，日元抛售可能进一步加速。他指出，日元兑欧元可能下探至180的水平(周一已创下历史新 低)，并可能在兑其他亚洲货币时面临进一步压力。他表示："如果高市早苗继续主张'日元疲软不会对日本经济造成负面影响'，并坚持日本央行不应加息的 立场，那么套利交易可能重启，日元将全面走弱。" 德意志银行策略师则称，他们已决定关闭此前的看涨日元头寸，因为"鉴于政治意外，目前缺乏正面催化因素"。Markets Live策略师Camer ...

Group 1: US Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Outlook - The US dollar index is stable above 98, potentially recording the largest weekly gain in two months, as US economic growth data diminishes expectations for further Fed easing this year [1] - The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in October has risen to approximately 12%, up from 8.1% the previous day; the cumulative rate cut expectation for the year has decreased to less than 40 basis points [1] - The upcoming release of the August Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index is anticipated, with a year-on-year increase forecasted at 2.7%, up from 2.6% in July [1] Group 2: Currency Performance and Market Expectations - The Japanese yen has become one of the worst-performing currencies this week, dropping to an eight-week low due to its sensitivity to Fed's hawkish re-pricing, with market expectations for a 14 basis point rate hike from the Bank of Japan in October [1] - The overall inflation rate in Japan for September decreased to 2.5%, below the expected 2.8%, while core inflation unexpectedly fell to 2.5%, the lowest since March [1] - ING predicts that the strong dollar will partially reverse if the market reaffirms expectations for two rate cuts by the Fed this year, with the yen likely benefiting [2] Group 3: UK Economic Concerns and Currency Impact - The British pound has declined nearly 1% this week, following a 0.6% drop last week, with a cumulative decline of 1.1% for the month, driven by concerns over the UK's long-term fiscal outlook [3] - The yield on 10-year UK government bonds surged, marking the largest single-day increase since early July, reflecting market worries about fiscal conditions [3] - The UK Chancellor is expected to present a budget in November that may include additional tax measures to maintain fiscal rules and gain bond market trust, amid rising borrowing costs and high inflation limiting the Bank of England's rate cut capacity [3]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley predicts that the "Genius Act" aims to maintain the dominance of the US dollar, with a long-term bearish outlook on the dollar [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by a cumulative 125 basis points by mid-2024, bringing rates down to around 3% [2] - The current economic conditions may lead to a decline in demand for US dollars and US Treasury bonds, resulting in dollar depreciation [2] Group 2 - Citadel's founder anticipates that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates once or twice more in 2025 due to concerns about the labor market [4] - The number of new jobs is declining, which could hinder the ability to create new employment opportunities without immigration [4] - The Federal Reserve's focus on the labor market may lead to further rate cuts as economic conditions evolve [4] Group 3 - Panmure Liberum warns that rising long-term US Treasury yields could delay the investment boom in artificial intelligence [3] - Higher yields increase debt costs, making some investment projects unprofitable, with a 1% rise in yields potentially reducing IT equipment investment growth by 0.6% [3] - The current high valuations may lead to downward adjustments in earnings forecasts for large tech companies and growth stocks [3] Group 4 - Citic Securities expects the weakness of the US dollar to persist at least through 2025 due to narrowing monetary policy differentials and slowing economic momentum [6] - The domestic dairy industry is entering a high-growth phase driven by deep processing and increased capacity, with a projected demand exceeding 26 billion yuan [6] - The sector is expected to benefit from lower milk prices and a focus on domestic supply chain innovation [6] Group 5 - The gaming industry is experiencing an upswing due to the approval of new game licenses, with 145 domestic and 11 imported licenses issued in September 2025 [8] - The stable supply of licenses is expected to enhance short-term industry sentiment and support long-term product development [8] - Companies focusing on AI and IP commercialization trends are recommended for potential performance improvements [8]

Group 1: Currency and Economic Outlook - Barclays reports that despite recent negative events, the US dollar has remained resilient, with no significant decline observed since May, even amid weak economic data and challenges to the Federal Reserve's credibility [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the US economy will recover in the coming months, which may support the dollar's continued strength [1] Group 2: Oil and Emerging Markets - Goldman Sachs states that a complete ban on Russian oil imports by the EU is unlikely due to reliance from certain member states like Hungary and Slovakia, and any potential ban would only redistribute oil flows rather than reduce global supply [2] - Goldman Sachs expects emerging market stocks and currencies to rise by the end of the year, raising the MSCI Emerging Markets Index target from 1,370 to 1,480 points, indicating a potential 10% upside [2] Group 3: Domestic Market Insights - Dongfang Jincheng forecasts stable and ample market liquidity by year-end, with potential for a new round of reserve requirement ratio cuts and government bond purchases [4] - CITIC Securities highlights the long video industry benefiting from favorable policies, which may enhance production capacity and efficiency for content creators [6][10] - CITIC Securities notes a recovery in the restaurant industry, with August seeing a year-on-year increase in dining revenue, suggesting structural opportunities for leading companies with strong compliance and quality [8] Group 4: Sector-Specific Developments - CITIC Securities indicates that the carbon fiber industry is in a recovery phase, with strong demand in wind energy and aerospace sectors, recommending attention to high-quality companies with international exposure [9] - China Galaxy Securities observes a slight increase in cement prices due to seasonal demand, with expectations for further price support from rising coal prices [11][12] - China Galaxy Securities also reports positive signals in panel procurement ahead of the overseas promotional season, indicating a potential peak in TV demand [13] Group 5: Electronic Materials - Huatai Securities emphasizes the importance of electronic cloth in the PCB-CCL supply chain, predicting a supply shortage for various specialty electronic cloth products until 2026, and recommends companies with rapid capacity expansion [14][15]

瑞士法郎对此决定反应平淡，公布后兑欧元汇率为0.9341，兑美元汇率为0.7956，基本持平。不过今年以来瑞士法郎表现强 劲，兑美元升值超过12%，兑欧元升值近1%，成为G-10货币中表现最佳的货币之一。 周四，瑞士央行维持借贷成本不变，将基准利率维持在零水平，以避免恢复负利率，结束了自3月份以来连续六次降息的宽松 周期。这一决定符合几乎所有接受彭博调查的24位经济学家的预期，仅有一位经济学家此前预测会降息。 央行行长Martin Schlegel表示，与上一季度相比，通胀压力基本保持不变。我们将继续监测形势，并在必要时调整货币政策， 以确保价格稳定。最新通胀率为0.2%，仍高于央行此前预测。 央行官员此前一直表示，重新引入负利率将对金融系统造成损害，因此采取这一措施需要更高的标准。目前瑞士出口商正面 临特朗普政府对瑞士征收的高额关税压力。 通胀压力维持低位，央行采取观望态度 与全球央行政策分化，经济学家预期降息周期结束 瑞士央行暂停降息主要基于当前通胀形势的稳定。尽管0.2%的通胀率接近央行0-2%目标区间的下限，但仍略高于央行此前预 测。Schlegel和同事们似乎采取了更加审慎的政策立场，对瑞士法郎走强 ...

智通财经APP获悉，瑞银集团最新发布的全球外汇策略研报对汇市进行了系统性深度剖析，核心围绕美 元走势预测、多币种关联性分析及宏观经济驱动因素展开。报告指出，2025年第四季度美元将延续弱势 格局，但这一趋势可能在2026年末迎来转折点——此前市场普遍预期的美元多年下行周期或提前失去动 能，届时美元将启动复苏进程。 欧元兑英镑Q4区间0.8600-0.8900，英镑在风险偏好上升时表现优异，但英国财政困境及潜在工资服务 价格放缓可能触发2026年英国央行激进降息预期，导致英镑套息溢价迅速消退，11月26日预算案成为关 键风险节点。 欧元兑瑞士法郎Q4区间0.9200-0.9450，尽管市场对瑞士法郎强势预期有所缓和，但"硬资产"需求、瑞士 央行宽松空间受限及国内美元风险对冲需求，仍将支撑瑞士法郎对欧元和美元的相对强势。 报告特别强调，美国经济增长可能通过财政措施和监管放松实现超预期表现，而失业率持续疲软虽未明 确数值，但已成为美元弱势的重要注脚。通胀率虽未直接披露具体数据，但降息预期已隐含通胀压力缓 解的判断。 在行动建议层面，瑞银提出三大策略：在欧元兑美元汇率下跌时布局买入以应对潜在反弹;密切跟踪美 国就业数 ...

Group 1 - The Thai Baht has appreciated by 4.45% against the US dollar this year, while the Vietnamese Dong has depreciated by 8.47%, giving Vietnam a 12.92% competitive advantage in trade and tourism, putting pressure on Thailand [2] - Vietnam's economy is outperforming Thailand, with a GDP growth of 7.96% and an export growth of 18% in Q2 2025, compared to Thailand's GDP growth of 2.8% and export growth of 12.2% [2] - Despite higher growth and interest rates in Vietnam, the Vietnamese Dong has not strengthened due to the influx of speculative capital into Thailand [2][4] Group 2 - The influx of speculative capital is driven by short-term arbitrage opportunities, with potential annualized returns of up to 260% when leveraging the expected appreciation of the Thai Baht [4] - Thailand's foreign exchange reserves are robust, amounting to 52.4% of GDP, ranking fourth globally, which contributes to the Baht being viewed as a "safe haven currency" [6] - The Thai central bank has intervened in the foreign exchange market during periods of US dollar weakness, but the scale of intervention this year is not historically significant [8] Group 3 - Speculative funds have significantly entered the government bond market, reducing the 5-year government bond yield to 1.42%, alleviating financing pressure amid a budget deficit of 865 billion Baht for the fiscal year 2025 [9] - There are differing opinions on how Thailand should respond to the influx of hot money, with some suggesting a fixed exchange rate system while others advocate for allowing market-driven adjustments [8]