1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From 2020 - 2024, both the total supply and total demand of the asphalt market showed negative growth trends, with compound growth rates of -6% and -4.5% respectively. In 2024, the market was in a situation of weak supply and demand, with a total demand decline of 11.2% and a total supply decline of 15%. The price showed a "tail - up" trend at the end of the year due to factors such as inventory reduction. Looking forward to 2025, the asphalt supply and demand are still likely to be in a negative growth trend, but there may be a phased increase. The consumption has room for growth, and the price is expected to rise in the second half of the year [1][4][19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Asphalt Market Supply - Demand Balance Analysis - **2020 - 2024 Overall Situation**: The asphalt production capacity peaked in 2023. The total supply and total demand had compound growth rates of -6% and -4.5% respectively. The production capacity decreased from 8090 million tons in 2023 to 7870 million tons in 2024, a -2.7% decline; the production decreased from 3207 million tons in 2023 to 2638 million tons in 2024, a -17.7% decline; the total supply decreased from 3510 million tons in 2023 to 2984 million tons in 2024, a -15% decline; the total demand decreased from 3462 million tons in 2023 to 3069 million tons in 2024, an -11.4% decline [1][2][5]. - **2024 Situation**: In 2024, the asphalt market was in a weak supply - demand situation. The total demand decreased by 11.2%, and the total supply decreased by 15%. The futures price fluctuated narrowly from January to July, then fell unilaterally in August, and showed a "tail - up" trend at the end of the year. The monthly supply - demand balance showed that the supply - demand gap turned negative from June, and the commercial inventory decreased rapidly during the traditional construction season from September to November [4]. 3.2 Analysis of Asphalt Price Fluctuation Characteristics and Reasons - **2020 - 2024 Price Trend**: The domestic asphalt price first rose and then fell, showing the characteristics of "not prosperous in the peak season and not dull in the off - season". The average price low was 2077 yuan/ton in March 2020, and the high was 4712 yuan/ton in June 2022. The price fluctuations were divided into five stages, mainly affected by factors such as oil prices, costs, supply, and demand [10]. - **2024 Price Situation**: In 2024, due to factors such as high local debts in some provinces and tight terminal funds, the demand reached a new low. The national average asphalt price ranged from 3553 to 3803 yuan/ton, with an amplitude of 6.8%. The annual high was in early May, and the low was in October. The annual central price was 3675 yuan/ton, a 5.2% decline compared to 2023 [12]. 3.3 Outlook on Asphalt Market Supply - Demand and Market Conditions - **Supply Situation**: From 2020 - 2024, the asphalt industry profit was in a long - term bear market, and the supply decreased year by year. The capacity utilization rate decreased from 47.7% in 2020 to 33.5% in 2024, a 14.2% decline. In 2024, the domestic asphalt processing profit reached a five - year low, and the production also reached a five - year low. In the first half of 2025, the profit was repaired, and the production increased by 5.0% year - on - year [17]. - **Demand Situation**: From 2020 - 2024, the asphalt consumption had a five - year compound growth rate of -4.4%. The demand was mainly concentrated in road construction and maintenance and waterproofing. The new road construction in the "14th Five - Year Plan" decreased, and the real - estate prosperity index was at a low level, resulting in a weakening of asphalt demand [17]. - **2025 Forecast**: It is expected that the production increase space in 2025 is limited, while the consumption has room for growth. The monthly consumption has been above 280 million tons since July, and there will be a concentrated demand release from September to November. The price is expected to rise in the second half of the year, with the peak reaching over 3900 yuan/ton from October to November [19].