证券研究报告：固定收益报告 生产热度整体回落，原油有色价格回升 ——高频数据跟踪 20250823 核心观点 高频经济数据关注点：第一，生产端热度整体回落，高炉、沥青、 PTA 开工率均下降，螺纹钢产量下降，轮胎开工率回升。第二，房地 产市场边际走弱，商品房成交面积下降，土地供应面积有所回升。第 三，物价走势分化，原油、有色价格上涨，焦煤、螺纹钢下跌，农产 品价格延续季节性上行趋势。第四，航运指数持续下行，SCFI、CCFI 及 BDI 均下降。短期重点关注新一轮稳增长刺激政策落地、房地产市 场恢复情况及国际地缘政治变动影响。 生产：高炉、螺纹钢、沥青、PTA 热度均下降，轮胎开工 率回升 发布时间：2025-08-25 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 分析师:崔超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523120001 Email:cuichao@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《生产热度回升，原油金属价格下降 ——高频数据跟踪 20250818》 - 2025.08.19 固收周报 8 月 22 日当周，焦炉产 ...

Economic Outlook - The Huachuang Macro WEI index has slightly increased to 6.35% as of July 27, up from 5.84% on July 20, indicating a recovery in infrastructure and durable goods consumption [2][8] - The land premium rate has risen for three consecutive weeks, reaching 9% as of July 27, with a four-week average of 6.9%, compared to 5.47% in June [2][12] Consumption Trends - Service consumption has shown a decline, with subway ridership remaining stable at an average of 81.53 million daily in 27 cities, and domestic flight numbers increasing by only 0.8% year-on-year [3][12] - Retail sales of passenger vehicles have decreased, with a year-on-year growth of 5% as of July 27, down from 17% previously [3][12] - The sales of commercial residential properties have seen a significant drop, with a 22% year-on-year decrease in July compared to 17.6% in June [3][12] Production Insights - Infrastructure activity is performing better than last year, with asphalt plant operating rates at 33% as of July 30, up 6.7% year-on-year [3][16] - Coal throughput at Qinhuangdao port has shown a year-on-year growth of 11.8% in July, down from 24.4% in June [3][19] Trade Developments - Port container throughput has experienced a seasonal decline, with a week-on-week decrease of 6.5% as of July 27, while the four-week cumulative year-on-year growth is 5.6% [3][21] - The U.S. import figures have shown a significant drop, with a year-on-year decrease of 20.5% in July [3][22] Price Movements - A decline in commodity prices has been observed, with the South China index down 2.5% and the RJ/CRB commodity price index down 2.3% [3][37] - Prices for upstream solar and lithium carbonate have significantly decreased, with polysilicon futures down 3.1% and lithium carbonate futures down 13.7% [3][38] Debt and Interest Rates - The issuance of special bonds has exceeded the pace of the previous year, with a total of 2.82 trillion yuan issued, representing 64% of the annual target [4][43] - Interest rates have decreased, with the one-year, five-year, and ten-year government bond yields reported at 1.3734%, 1.5686%, and 1.7059%, respectively [4][51]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Considering the current mediocre fundamental performance, the short - term valuation of asphalt is expected to have no outstanding performance and may remain neutral to weak. Attention should be paid to the possible unilateral crude oil market caused by tariff policies and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Overview - **Supply**: The capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 33.1%, a month - on - month increase of 4.3%. The weekly output of domestic asphalt was 581,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,000 tons (2.1%) and a year - on - year increase of 146,000 tons (33.6%). The cumulative output from January to July was 18.704 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.508 million tons (8.8%) [4]. - **Demand**: Downstream buyers purchase low - priced asphalt as needed. The brand competition in the north - south market has intensified, and prices in some provinces are under pressure to decline. In Shandong, rainy weather affected terminal demand, and in East China, the actual trading volume was light due to rain. However, with the resumption of normal shipping of cargo, the factory inventory pressure in the region is not large, while the social inventory is expected to increase [4]. - **Viewpoint**: The short - term asphalt valuation is expected to remain neutral to weak. Attention should be paid to tariff policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation [4]. - **Valuation**: During the week, BU fluctuated with crude oil, and the month - on - month fluctuation intensified slightly. The average weekly price of domestic asphalt was 3,761 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 23 yuan/ton. The spot price of the asphalt market declined, and the price fluctuation range narrowed. The low - price of asphalt spot was under pressure, with 4 regions seeing price drops, 1 region an increase, and 2 regions remaining stable [4]. - **Strategy**: For the unilateral strategy, no specific suggestion is given; for the inter - period strategy, partially take profit on the reverse spread; for the inter - variety strategy, partially take profit on the short crack spread [4]. 3.2 Price & Spread - **Cost Structure**: The cost of asphalt is related to factors such as Brent, WTI, imported diluted asphalt, and Ma Rui crude oil. There are also substitutes like Oman crude oil and Basra heavy oil. Different crude oils have different asphalt yields, for example, the yield of Ma Rui crude oil is 55% - 60% [7]. - **Futures - Disk Price and Trading Volume and Open Interest**: There are data on the price trends of Brent, WTI, and SC, as well as the trading volume and open interest of asphalt futures [11]. - **Spot - Heavy - Traffic Asphalt and Ma Rui Crude Oil**: There are data on the prices of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions and the production profit of asphalt in Shandong [12]. - **Spread - Basis and Calendar Spread**: There are data on the basis in Shandong and the Yangtze River Delta, as well as the calendar spread of different contract months [18][19]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Demand**: The demand for asphalt is mainly in the road market (including highway construction and maintenance), waterproof market, ship - fuel market, coking market, and export market. Seasonal factors have a limited impact. The demand for modified asphalt in some northern provinces decreased due to precipitation, but the demand in Shandong's highway projects increased, and the overall capacity utilization rate of domestic modified asphalt enterprises increased [24][28]. - **Supply**: - **Output, Maintenance, and Raw Materials**: The weekly output of domestic asphalt was 581,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,000 tons (2.1%) and a year - on - year increase of 146,000 tons (33.6%). As of July 31, 2025, the total inventory of 54 asphalt sample factories was 725,000 tons, a 1.5% decrease from July 28. The inventory in the northwestern region decreased significantly [32]. - **Start - up**: There are data on the weekly start - up rates of asphalt refineries in different regions [36][38][40]. - **Inventory**: There are data on the weekly inventory rates of asphalt refineries in different regions, including the total inventory rate, and the inventory rates in regions such as the Yangtze River Delta, North China, Shandong, Northeast, and South China [46][47][48].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic trends in China, highlighting both upward and downward movements in various sectors, including real estate, consumer goods, and infrastructure, while also noting the impact of external trade dynamics. Group 1: Economic Upturn - Land premium rates have rebounded to 7% as of July 13, with a two-week average of 5.9%, compared to 5.47% in June and 4.93% in May [2][10] - Domestic resource prices continue to rise, with significant increases in coal and steel prices, including a 1.6% rise in Shanxi thermal coal and a 6.7% increase in main coking coal prices [2][35] - Infrastructure activities are performing better than last year, with the oil asphalt operating rate at 32.8%, up 6.3% year-on-year, and cement dispatch rates at 40.1%, compared to 37.4% last year [2][16] Group 2: Economic Downturn - The Huachuang Macro WEI index has decreased to 5.96% as of July 13, down from 7.05% on July 6, indicating a decline in economic activity [3][5] - Retail sales growth for passenger vehicles has slowed, with a year-on-year increase of 6.6% as of July 13, down from 15% in June and 13.3% in May [3][9] - The decline in residential property sales has widened, with a 23.7% decrease in transaction area for 67 cities as of July 18, compared to a 17.6% decline in June [3][9] Group 3: Trade Dynamics - Port container throughput has decreased, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 3.2% as of July 13, down from 4.5% the previous week [3][20] - The number of container ships from China to the U.S. has also declined, with a 15-day year-on-year decrease of approximately 11.1% as of July 19 [3][21] Group 4: Debt and Interest Rates - The issuance of special bonds has accelerated, with 2.59 trillion yuan issued as of July 18, representing 59% of the annual target, faster than the 42% progress of the previous year [4][41] - Bond market yields have shown fluctuations, with the one-year, five-year, and ten-year government bond yields reported at 1.3490%, 1.5256%, and 1.6652%, respectively, as of July 18 [4][60]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Huachuang Macro WEI index has risen to over 7%, reaching 7.08% as of July 6, up from 6% on June 29, driven mainly by asphalt operating rates and passenger car sales [2][6][7] - Domestic flight numbers have slightly increased, with 14,400 flights executed in the first five days of July, a year-on-year increase of 3% compared to 12,800 flights in June [2][9] - The operating rate of asphalt facilities has increased to 32.7% as of July 9, up 4.7% year-on-year and 1% week-on-week [2][16] Group 2: Consumer Trends - Retail sales of passenger cars have shown a decline, with a year-on-year growth of only 1% as of July 6, down from 3% previously and 15% in June [3][9] - The sales of commercial residential properties have decreased significantly, with a 24% year-on-year drop in transaction area for the first 11 days of July, compared to a 17.6% decline in June [3][9] - The land premium rate has decreased to 4.88% as of July 6, down from 5.47% in June [3][10] Group 3: Price Trends - Resource prices continue to rise, with various commodities such as coal and steel experiencing price increases due to "anti-involution" sentiments [2][39] - The price of Shanxi-produced power coal (Q5500) has increased by 1.4%, while the price of coking coal has risen by 9.8% [2][39] - The national average price of second-hand houses has decreased by 0.3% as of June 30, with first-tier cities seeing a 0.2% decline [3][41] Group 4: Trade and External Demand - China's port container throughput has rebounded, with a year-on-year increase of 4.5% as of July 6, up from 3.1% the previous week [2][19] - The export growth rate to the U.S. has shown a decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 13.2% in the first eight days of July [20][21] - The shipping demand from China to the U.S. has decreased, with a 10.8% year-on-year drop in the number of container ships dispatched [20][21] Group 5: Debt and Interest Rates - The issuance of special bonds has accelerated, with 2.39 trillion yuan issued as of July 11, representing 54.3% of the annual target, faster than the previous year's pace [3][44] - The yields on government bonds have increased, with the 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year yields reported at 1.3702%, 1.5292%, and 1.6653% respectively, reflecting increases from the previous week [4][58]

Economic Indicators - The Huachuang Macro WEI index rose to 7.08% as of July 6, 2025, up from 6.00% on June 29, marking an increase of 1.08%[2] - Domestic flight executions increased to 14,400 flights in the first five days of July, a year-on-year increase of 3%[8] - The operating rate of asphalt plants rose to 32.7% as of July 9, 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%[15] Consumer Trends - Retail sales of passenger cars showed a year-on-year increase of 1% as of July 6, down from 3% previously, and June's total was 15%[8] - The sales area of commercial residential properties in 67 cities decreased by 24% year-on-year in the first 11 days of July, compared to a 17.6% decline in June[3] - The land premium rate fell to 4.88% as of July 6, down from 5.47% in June[9] Price Movements - Resource prices continued to rise, with Shanxi thermal coal prices increasing by 1.4%, and rebar prices in Shanghai rising by 1.9%[46] - The national average price of second-hand homes fell by 0.3% as of June 30, with first-tier cities down by 0.2%[47] - The overall price index for agricultural products rose, with vegetable prices increasing by 1.8% and fruit prices by 2.1%[46] Debt and Interest Rates - New special bond issuance accelerated, with 2.39 trillion yuan issued this year, achieving 54.3% of the annual target, compared to 39.3% last year[54] - As of July 11, 2025, the yields on 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bonds were 1.3702%, 1.5292%, and 1.6653%, respectively, reflecting increases of 3.4bps, 3.63bps, and 2.2bps from the previous week[67]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From 2020 - 2024, both the total supply and total demand of the asphalt market showed negative growth trends, with compound growth rates of -6% and -4.5% respectively. In 2024, the market was in a situation of weak supply and demand, with a total demand decline of 11.2% and a total supply decline of 15%. The price showed a "tail - up" trend at the end of the year due to factors such as inventory reduction. Looking forward to 2025, the asphalt supply and demand are still likely to be in a negative growth trend, but there may be a phased increase. The consumption has room for growth, and the price is expected to rise in the second half of the year [1][4][19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Asphalt Market Supply - Demand Balance Analysis - **2020 - 2024 Overall Situation**: The asphalt production capacity peaked in 2023. The total supply and total demand had compound growth rates of -6% and -4.5% respectively. The production capacity decreased from 8090 million tons in 2023 to 7870 million tons in 2024, a -2.7% decline; the production decreased from 3207 million tons in 2023 to 2638 million tons in 2024, a -17.7% decline; the total supply decreased from 3510 million tons in 2023 to 2984 million tons in 2024, a -15% decline; the total demand decreased from 3462 million tons in 2023 to 3069 million tons in 2024, an -11.4% decline [1][2][5]. - **2024 Situation**: In 2024, the asphalt market was in a weak supply - demand situation. The total demand decreased by 11.2%, and the total supply decreased by 15%. The futures price fluctuated narrowly from January to July, then fell unilaterally in August, and showed a "tail - up" trend at the end of the year. The monthly supply - demand balance showed that the supply - demand gap turned negative from June, and the commercial inventory decreased rapidly during the traditional construction season from September to November [4]. 3.2 Analysis of Asphalt Price Fluctuation Characteristics and Reasons - **2020 - 2024 Price Trend**: The domestic asphalt price first rose and then fell, showing the characteristics of "not prosperous in the peak season and not dull in the off - season". The average price low was 2077 yuan/ton in March 2020, and the high was 4712 yuan/ton in June 2022. The price fluctuations were divided into five stages, mainly affected by factors such as oil prices, costs, supply, and demand [10]. - **2024 Price Situation**: In 2024, due to factors such as high local debts in some provinces and tight terminal funds, the demand reached a new low. The national average asphalt price ranged from 3553 to 3803 yuan/ton, with an amplitude of 6.8%. The annual high was in early May, and the low was in October. The annual central price was 3675 yuan/ton, a 5.2% decline compared to 2023 [12]. 3.3 Outlook on Asphalt Market Supply - Demand and Market Conditions - **Supply Situation**: From 2020 - 2024, the asphalt industry profit was in a long - term bear market, and the supply decreased year by year. The capacity utilization rate decreased from 47.7% in 2020 to 33.5% in 2024, a 14.2% decline. In 2024, the domestic asphalt processing profit reached a five - year low, and the production also reached a five - year low. In the first half of 2025, the profit was repaired, and the production increased by 5.0% year - on - year [17]. - **Demand Situation**: From 2020 - 2024, the asphalt consumption had a five - year compound growth rate of -4.4%. The demand was mainly concentrated in road construction and maintenance and waterproofing. The new road construction in the "14th Five - Year Plan" decreased, and the real - estate prosperity index was at a low level, resulting in a weakening of asphalt demand [17]. - **2025 Forecast**: It is expected that the production increase space in 2025 is limited, while the consumption has room for growth. The monthly consumption has been above 280 million tons since July, and there will be a concentrated demand release from September to November. The price is expected to rise in the second half of the year, with the peak reaching over 3900 yuan/ton from October to November [19].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the mixed performance of various sectors in June, with a notable decline in coal-fired power generation and a slight recovery in construction-related activities [1][3][11] - The coal-fired power generation in June decreased by 1.8% year-on-year, contrasting with a 0.4% increase in May, indicating a downward trend in traditional energy sources as renewable energy gains market share [1][8] - Industrial operating rates showed seasonal characteristics, with steel and coking industries experiencing declines, while the automotive and chemical sectors, particularly styrene, showed marginal improvements [2][9][10] Group 2 - Infrastructure-related indicators improved significantly, with the national construction site funding availability rate at 59.1%, a month-on-month increase of 0.2 percentage points [3][11] - Cement dispatch rates rose to 40.8% year-on-year, up 3.1 percentage points compared to the previous year, indicating a positive trend in construction activity [11][12] - The average daily subway ridership in major cities increased by 2.0% year-on-year, reflecting stable social activity despite seasonal weather impacts [13][13] Group 3 - New home sales showed signs of weakening, with the average daily transaction area in 30 major cities down 8.6% year-on-year, compared to a decline of 3.3% in May [4][15][16] - The automotive and home appliance sectors remained bright spots in the economy, with passenger car retail sales increasing by 24% year-on-year in early June [6][17] - The three major home appliances maintained high sales growth rates, with online sales showing significant fluctuations throughout June [18][19][20] Group 4 - Container throughput growth slowed, but the number of container ships sent to the U.S. showed signs of stabilization, with a year-on-year increase of 9.5% in June [6][21][22] - The overall economic picture for June reflects resilience in the automotive and home appliance sectors, while traditional infrastructure projects are gradually gaining momentum [23][23]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic trends in China, highlighting both upward and downward movements in various sectors, including consumer spending, external demand, and real estate sales. Group 1: Economic Upturn - Durable goods consumption shows an upward trend, with passenger car retail sales increasing by 24.8% year-on-year as of June 22, compared to 13.3% in May [1] - External demand is improving, as indicated by the Markit Manufacturing PMI for major overseas economies averaging around 51.1% in June, up from 50.9% in May, with contributions mainly from Japan, India, and the UK [2] - Land premium rates have rebounded from low levels, reaching 7.3% in the week of June 22, compared to an average of 3.2% over the past three weeks and 4.93% in May [3] Group 2: Economic Downturn - The Huachuang Macro WEI index has slightly declined to 7.63% as of June 22, down from 7.94% on June 15 [2] - Service consumption metrics, such as subway ridership and flight numbers, are close to last year's levels, with subway ridership averaging 77.42 million daily in 27 cities, a 0.5% increase year-on-year [2] - Real estate sales are declining, with residential sales in 67 cities showing a year-on-year decrease of 16% as of June 27, compared to a 13% decline in May [2] Group 3: Special Bonds and Interest Rates - As of June 30, 2025, new special bonds issued have reached 2.16 trillion, accounting for 49.1% of the annual issuance plan, faster than last year's 37.8% [3] - Interest rates have increased, with DR001 at 1.3683%, DR007 at 1.6968%, and R007 at 1.9201% as of June 27, showing mixed changes compared to June 20 [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the progress and future expectations regarding the clearance of government debts owed to enterprises, highlighting the allocation of special bonds for this purpose [1][11][19] - In 2024, the Ministry of Finance allocated a debt limit of 1.2 trillion yuan to support local governments in resolving hidden debts and clearing overdue payments to enterprises [1][11] - By 2025, the government plans to use newly issued special bonds, amounting to 4.4 trillion yuan, to address overdue payments and support investment projects [1][11][19] Group 2 - Recent developments show that several provinces have announced budget adjustments, with Yunnan Province allocating 356 billion yuan for debt clearance, while Hunan Province allocated 200 billion yuan, representing 14% of its annual special bond limit [13][14] - The total amount of special bonds confirmed for debt clearance currently stands at 556 billion yuan, with expectations that it may exceed 1 trillion yuan for the year [18][19] - The overall trend indicates that the use of special bonds for debt clearance may limit the funds available for project construction [2][19] Group 3 - Observations of the effectiveness of debt clearance can be gauged through the accounts receivable situation of enterprises, with significant increases in the average collection period for both industrial enterprises and A-share listed companies [20] - As of the first quarter of 2025, the average accounts receivable turnover days for A-share listed companies reached 52.6 days, indicating a longer collection period compared to previous years [20] - Industries with traditionally longer accounts receivable turnover days include water conservancy and environmental protection, which averaged 185 days [20] Group 4 - The Huachuang Macro WEI index has shown an upward trend, reaching 7.94% as of June 15, 2025, driven by factors such as asphalt operating rates and retail sales of passenger vehicles [25][26] - Retail sales of passenger vehicles increased by 21% year-on-year in mid-June, continuing a positive trend from previous months [28] - The construction sector is experiencing a decline in asphalt plant operating rates and cement dispatch rates, indicating potential challenges in infrastructure development [36] Group 5 - The issuance of new special bonds is expected to increase significantly, with plans to issue over 400 billion yuan in a single week, marking a new high for 2024 [62][63] - The downward trend in funding rates is evident, with the DR001 rate at 1.3742% as of June 20, 2025, reflecting a decrease from the previous week [74]