文 ： 华创证券研究所首席经济学家 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 报告摘要 景气向上 1、华创宏观WEI指数震荡回升。 截至12月21日，该指数为5.22%，环比前一周上行0.06个点。 2、地产销售：商品房住宅成交面积同比降幅继续收窄。 我们统计的67个城市，截至12月26日当周， 商品房成交面积同比为-19%。12月前26日累计同比为-26%。11月同比为-34%。 3、基建：石油沥青装置开工率改善 。截至12月24当周，开工率为31.3%，较上周环比回升3.7个点， 较去年同期高5.4个点。 4、价格：铜价、金价、油价均上涨。 COMEX黄金收于4546.2美金/盎司，上涨4.6%；LME三个月铜 价收于12218美元/吨，上涨4.1%；美油收于56.7美元/桶，上涨1.1%，布油收于60.6美元/桶，上涨 1.4% 景气向下 1、耐用品消费：乘用车零售低位运行 。12月第三周，乘用车零售同比增速-11%，前值-17%。12月 前三周累计同比-18.8%。11月全月同比为-8.1%。 2、生产：行业开工率偏弱。 环比来看，江浙织机、全钢胎、P ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 石油沥青周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 期货从业资格号：F3082452 日期：2025年12月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 综述 01 价格&价差 02 基本面数据 03 市场回顾 期现 价差结构 需求 供应 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 本周沥青观点：冬储进行时，现货低持稳 | 供应 | 本周（20251218-1224），中国92家沥青炼厂产能利用率为33.1%，环比增加4.0%，国内重交沥青77家企业产能利用率为31.3%，环比增加 3.7%。分析原因主要是本周期辽河石化提产，加之山东、华东以及华南地区个别主力炼厂复产后稳定生产，导致产能利用率增加。 | | --- | --- | | 需求 | 本周(20251217-1223)，国内沥青54家企业厂家样本出货量共40.4万吨，环比增加15.4%。分地区来看，华南以及山东增加明显，其中华南地 区个别主 ...

CONTENTS 综述 01 价格&价差 02 基本面数据 03 市场回顾 期现 价差结构 需求 供应 国泰君安期货·能源化工 石油沥青周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 期货从业资格号：F3082452 日期：2025年12月21日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 02 沥青成本结构 成本端 Brent 原油指数 WTI 进口稀释沥青 马瑞原油 原料供应 SC 替 代 无需原油配额 免缴消费税 优势 阿曼原油 巴士拉重 科威特重油 轻重油价差 沥青出率高 序号 品种 产率 1 马瑞原油 55%~60% 2 中国海洋油 50%~55% 3 厄瓜多尔那波 重油 35%~40% 4 科威特重油 30%~35% 进出口政策 汇率 运费 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 6 6 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 本周沥青观点：委油憋库贴水降，沥青裂解难增长 | 供应 | 本周（202 ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - Current situation: In Shandong and North China, the asphalt futures market decline has led to a pessimistic market sentiment. Middle - and downstream enterprises follow the "buy on rising" principle, and traders keep lowering their quotes. In East China, the increasing low - price asphalt in Zhenjiang warehouses restrains refinery sales, resulting in low market trading activity. In South China, major refineries adopt an intermittent production mode, and asphalt prices remain stable with controllable inventory. Future outlook: In the north, weak demand intensifies price competition, and low - price asphalt dominates the market. In the short term, asphalt prices are likely to be weak. In the south, although major refineries maintain low operating rates, the abundant low - price supply in Zhenjiang and Foshan warehouses restricts price increases [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Asphalt Spot Market - In different regions, the current asphalt spot prices in East China, North China, South China, Northeast, Northwest, and Shandong are 3450, 3210, 3380, 3580, 3980, and 3170 respectively. The previous values were 3450, 3230, 3400, 3590, 3980, and 3210. The price changes are 0, - 20, - 20, - 10, 0, and - 40 respectively [1] Asphalt Futures Market - For asphalt futures contracts BU2511, BU2512, BU2601, and BU2602, the current values are 3171, 3189, 3193, and 3208 respectively. The previous values were 3225, 3233, 3233, and 3246. The price increases are - 1.67%, - 1.36%, - 1.24%, and - 1.17% respectively [1] Oil Production Policy - OPEC+ announced that eight countries will increase oil production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, considering the stable global economic outlook and low - inventory market conditions. After December, due to seasonal factors, they will suspend production increases from January to March 2026. The 1.65 million barrels per day production cut may be partially or fully restored depending on market conditions. The next meeting of the eight OPEC+ members will be on November 30, 2025 [2] International Politics and Military News - There were reports that the US planned to launch an air strike on Venezuela, but President Trump denied the news. Trump also stated that he was not "seriously considering" providing "Tomahawk" cruise missiles to Ukraine. Brazil's President Lula is willing to assist in coordinating US - Venezuela relations, and Russia and Venezuela have established a strategic partnership [1][4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - High - frequency economic data shows that the production side is stable with a slight increase, the coke oven and PX operating rates decline, the tire operating rate rebounds significantly, and the asphalt operating rate is at a high level [1][31]. - The transaction volume of commercial housing and land supply area are generally at a low level, and seasonal improvement may occur in the near future [1][31]. - After the holiday, the number of executed flights decreases, while the subway passenger volume and congestion index in cities increase [1][31]. - The price trend is differentiated. Crude oil and rebar prices decline, while coking coal, copper, and aluminum prices rise. The overall price of agricultural products increases, but the prices of pork and eggs drop significantly [1][31]. - In the short term, focus on the incremental policies of the Fourth Plenary Session and the 14th Five - Year Plan, Sino - US trade policies, and the recovery of the real estate market [1][31]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Production: Rebar Production Continues to Decline, Tire Operating Rate Rebounds Significantly - Steel: The coke oven capacity utilization rate decreases by 0.96 pct, the blast furnace operating rate remains flat, and the rebar production decreases by 2.24 tons. The inventory of rebar also decreases by 7.7 tons [10]. - Petroleum asphalt: The operating rate increases by 1.3 pct and is at a relatively high level in recent years [10]. - Chemical industry: The PX operating rate decreases by 1.9 pct, while the PTA operating rate increases by 1.57 pct [10]. - Automobile tires: The operating rate rebounds significantly after the holiday. The all - steel tire operating rate increases by 20.56 pct, and the semi - steel tire operating rate increases by 26.21 pct [11]. 2. Demand: Commercial Housing Transactions Increase Slightly at a Low Level, SCFI Rebounds Significantly - Real estate: The transaction area of commercial housing rebounds slightly at a low level, the inventory - to - sales ratio increases, the land supply area decreases, and the transaction premium rate of residential land decreases [14]. - Movie box office: In the week of October 5, it increases by 1.087 billion yuan compared with the previous week [14]. - Automobile: In the week of October 12, the daily average retail sales of manufacturers increase by 41,000 vehicles, and the daily average wholesale sales increase by 46,000 vehicles [16]. - Shipping index: In the week of October 17, SCFI rebounds by 12.92%, CCFI decreases by 4.11%, and BDI increases by 6.87% [19]. 3. Prices: Crude Oil and Rebar Prices Decline, Coking Coal, Copper, and Aluminum Prices Rise - Energy: The Brent crude oil price drops by 2.3% to $61.29 per barrel [21]. - Coking coal: The futures price rises by 1.67% to 1,184.5 yuan per ton [21]. - Metals: The LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices change by +2.25%, +1.18%, and - 1.41% respectively compared with the previous week, and the domestic rebar futures price decreases by 1.96% [22]. - Agricultural products: The overall price increases, with the wholesale price index of agricultural products rising by 1.13%. The prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits change by - 3.94%, - 4.45%, +2.42%, and +0.28% respectively compared with the previous week [24]. 4. Logistics: After the Holiday, Subway Passenger Volume and Urban Congestion Index Rebound Significantly, and the Number of Executed Flights Decreases Significantly - Subway passenger volume: In Beijing and Shanghai, it rebounds significantly after the holiday. The seven - day moving average of Beijing's subway passenger volume increases by about 3.28 million person - times, and that of Shanghai increases by about 3.04 million person - times [27]. - Executed flights: After the holiday, the number of domestic and international executed flights decreases significantly. The seven - day moving average of domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) executed flights decreases by 10.22%, that of domestic (Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) decreases by 5.8%, and that of international flights decreases by 4.44% [29]. - Urban traffic: The peak congestion index of first - tier cities rebounds significantly after the holiday, with the seven - day moving average increasing by 34.16% [29]. 5. Summary: Asphalt Operating Rate is at a High Level, Crude Oil and Pork Prices are Low The high - frequency economic data focuses on four aspects: production, demand, logistics, and prices. The production side is stable with a slight increase; the demand side is at a low level with potential seasonal improvement; the logistics situation shows a post - holiday adjustment; and the price trend is differentiated. Short - term attention should be paid to policies and the real estate market recovery [31].

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Huachuang Macro WEI Index rose to 8.78% as of September 21, up 1.23 percentage points from the previous week, driven mainly by infrastructure and durable goods consumption [2][9]. - High-frequency data for infrastructure shows a recovery, with asphalt plant operating rates at 40.1%, up 11.1% year-on-year and 5.7% week-on-week [2][20]. - The port container throughput remains high, with a four-week cumulative year-on-year increase of 10.4%, although it has slightly decreased from the previous week's 10.9% [2][26]. Group 2: Consumer Demand - Retail sales of passenger vehicles showed a weekly year-on-year increase of 9% in the third week of September, but the cumulative monthly growth remains low at 0.7% [3][15]. - The sales of residential properties maintained positive growth but showed a marginal slowdown, with a year-on-year increase of 6% in the first 26 days of September compared to 15% in the previous two weeks [3][15]. - The average land premium rate across 100 cities was 2.8% in the first three weeks of September, down from 3.61% in August [3][15]. Group 3: Production and Industry - The construction sector has seen a recovery in high-frequency data, with both asphalt and cement dispatch rates improving compared to last year [2][20]. - Industrial production indicators show a year-on-year increase of 23.4% in coal throughput at Qinhuangdao Port as of September 28, compared to 8.2% in August [20]. - The steel industry has introduced a growth stabilization plan, aiming for an average annual growth of about 4% over the next two years, with strict controls on new capacity [25][21]. Group 4: Trade and Tariffs - The S&P manufacturing PMI for major economies (US and Europe) fell to 49.2 in September, down from 50.2 in August, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity [26]. - The US announced new tariffs effective October 1, including a 50% tariff on kitchen cabinets and a 30% tariff on imported furniture, which may impact related industries [28]. Group 5: Commodity Prices - Gold prices increased to $3734.2 per ounce, up 1.3%, while oil prices also saw significant gains, with WTI crude at $65.7 per barrel, up 4.9% [2][39]. - The domestic coal price at Qinhuangdao Port was reported at 701 yuan per ton, down 0.4%, while the price of cement increased by 2.5% [40][42]. Group 6: Interest Rates and Debt - The yield on 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bonds were reported at 1.3825%, 1.6234%, and 1.8768%, respectively, with slight fluctuations compared to the previous week [58][44]. - A total of 593 billion yuan in new local government bonds is planned for issuance in the week of September 29, with 494 billion yuan designated for special bonds [44].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall production heat has declined, with the operating rates of blast furnaces, asphalt, and PTA all decreasing, and the output of rebar decreasing, while the operating rate of tires has increased [2][32]. - The real - estate market has weakened marginally, with the transaction area of commercial housing decreasing and the land supply area increasing [2][32]. - The price trends are diverging. Crude oil, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products have risen, while coking coal and rebar have fallen. Agricultural product prices continue the seasonal upward trend [2][32]. - Shipping indices have continued to decline, including SCFI, CCFI, and BDI [2][32]. - In the short term, focus on the implementation of a new round of growth - stabilizing stimulus policies, the recovery of the real - estate market, and the impact of international geopolitical changes [2][32]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Production: The heat of blast furnaces, rebar, asphalt, and PTA has all declined, and the tire operating rate has increased - **Steel**: The coke oven capacity utilization rate increased by 0.04 pct, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.23 pct, and the rebar output decreased by 5.8 tons. The inventory increased by 2.27 tons [8]. - **Petroleum Asphalt**: The operating rate decreased by 2.2 pct [8]. - **Chemical Industry**: The PX operating rate remained flat compared with the previous week, while the PTA operating rate decreased by 7.52 pct [8]. - **Automobile Tires**: The operating rate of all - steel tires increased by 1.67 pct, and that of semi - steel tires increased by 1.06 pct [9]. 3.2 Demand: The transaction of commercial housing has continued to decline, and shipping indices have continued the downward trend - **Real Estate**: The transaction area of commercial housing continued to decline, and the inventory - to - sales ratio increased. The land supply area increased, and the transaction premium rate of residential land increased [14]. - **Movie Box Office**: It decreased by 399 million yuan compared with the previous week [14]. - **Automobile**: The daily average retail sales of automobile manufacturers increased by 13,800 vehicles, and the daily average wholesale sales increased by 22,400 vehicles [17]. - **Shipping Indices**: SCFI decreased by 3.07%, CCFI decreased by 1.55%, and BDI decreased by 4.89% [20]. 3.3 Prices: Crude oil, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products have risen, while coking coal and rebar have fallen - **Energy**: The Brent crude oil price rose by 2.85% to $67.73 per barrel, and the coking coal futures price fell by 6.7% to 1,141.5 yuan per ton [22]. - **Metals**: The LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by +0.37%, +0.73%, and +0.32% respectively, and the domestic rebar futures price decreased by 2.1% [23]. - **Agricultural Products**: The overall price continued the seasonal upward trend. The prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changed by +0.25%, +1.05%, +1.89%, and - 1.30% respectively compared with the previous week [25]. 3.4 Logistics: The number of international flights has decreased, and the congestion index in first - tier cities has continued to rise - **Subway Passenger Volume**: In Beijing, it decreased, while in Shanghai, it increased [28]. - **Executed Flight Volume**: Domestic flights increased slightly, and international flights decreased [29]. - **Urban Traffic**: The peak congestion index in first - tier cities continued to rise [29]. 3.5 Summary: The overall production heat has declined, and the prices of crude oil and non - ferrous metals have risen The summary is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing the changes in production, real - estate, prices, and shipping indices, and suggesting short - term focus areas [32].

Economic Outlook - The Huachuang Macro WEI index has slightly increased to 6.35% as of July 27, up from 5.84% on July 20, indicating a recovery in infrastructure and durable goods consumption [2][8] - The land premium rate has risen for three consecutive weeks, reaching 9% as of July 27, with a four-week average of 6.9%, compared to 5.47% in June [2][12] Consumption Trends - Service consumption has shown a decline, with subway ridership remaining stable at an average of 81.53 million daily in 27 cities, and domestic flight numbers increasing by only 0.8% year-on-year [3][12] - Retail sales of passenger vehicles have decreased, with a year-on-year growth of 5% as of July 27, down from 17% previously [3][12] - The sales of commercial residential properties have seen a significant drop, with a 22% year-on-year decrease in July compared to 17.6% in June [3][12] Production Insights - Infrastructure activity is performing better than last year, with asphalt plant operating rates at 33% as of July 30, up 6.7% year-on-year [3][16] - Coal throughput at Qinhuangdao port has shown a year-on-year growth of 11.8% in July, down from 24.4% in June [3][19] Trade Developments - Port container throughput has experienced a seasonal decline, with a week-on-week decrease of 6.5% as of July 27, while the four-week cumulative year-on-year growth is 5.6% [3][21] - The U.S. import figures have shown a significant drop, with a year-on-year decrease of 20.5% in July [3][22] Price Movements - A decline in commodity prices has been observed, with the South China index down 2.5% and the RJ/CRB commodity price index down 2.3% [3][37] - Prices for upstream solar and lithium carbonate have significantly decreased, with polysilicon futures down 3.1% and lithium carbonate futures down 13.7% [3][38] Debt and Interest Rates - The issuance of special bonds has exceeded the pace of the previous year, with a total of 2.82 trillion yuan issued, representing 64% of the annual target [4][43] - Interest rates have decreased, with the one-year, five-year, and ten-year government bond yields reported at 1.3734%, 1.5686%, and 1.7059%, respectively [4][51]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Considering the current mediocre fundamental performance, the short - term valuation of asphalt is expected to have no outstanding performance and may remain neutral to weak. Attention should be paid to the possible unilateral crude oil market caused by tariff policies and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Overview - **Supply**: The capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 33.1%, a month - on - month increase of 4.3%. The weekly output of domestic asphalt was 581,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,000 tons (2.1%) and a year - on - year increase of 146,000 tons (33.6%). The cumulative output from January to July was 18.704 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.508 million tons (8.8%) [4]. - **Demand**: Downstream buyers purchase low - priced asphalt as needed. The brand competition in the north - south market has intensified, and prices in some provinces are under pressure to decline. In Shandong, rainy weather affected terminal demand, and in East China, the actual trading volume was light due to rain. However, with the resumption of normal shipping of cargo, the factory inventory pressure in the region is not large, while the social inventory is expected to increase [4]. - **Viewpoint**: The short - term asphalt valuation is expected to remain neutral to weak. Attention should be paid to tariff policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation [4]. - **Valuation**: During the week, BU fluctuated with crude oil, and the month - on - month fluctuation intensified slightly. The average weekly price of domestic asphalt was 3,761 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 23 yuan/ton. The spot price of the asphalt market declined, and the price fluctuation range narrowed. The low - price of asphalt spot was under pressure, with 4 regions seeing price drops, 1 region an increase, and 2 regions remaining stable [4]. - **Strategy**: For the unilateral strategy, no specific suggestion is given; for the inter - period strategy, partially take profit on the reverse spread; for the inter - variety strategy, partially take profit on the short crack spread [4]. 3.2 Price & Spread - **Cost Structure**: The cost of asphalt is related to factors such as Brent, WTI, imported diluted asphalt, and Ma Rui crude oil. There are also substitutes like Oman crude oil and Basra heavy oil. Different crude oils have different asphalt yields, for example, the yield of Ma Rui crude oil is 55% - 60% [7]. - **Futures - Disk Price and Trading Volume and Open Interest**: There are data on the price trends of Brent, WTI, and SC, as well as the trading volume and open interest of asphalt futures [11]. - **Spot - Heavy - Traffic Asphalt and Ma Rui Crude Oil**: There are data on the prices of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions and the production profit of asphalt in Shandong [12]. - **Spread - Basis and Calendar Spread**: There are data on the basis in Shandong and the Yangtze River Delta, as well as the calendar spread of different contract months [18][19]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Demand**: The demand for asphalt is mainly in the road market (including highway construction and maintenance), waterproof market, ship - fuel market, coking market, and export market. Seasonal factors have a limited impact. The demand for modified asphalt in some northern provinces decreased due to precipitation, but the demand in Shandong's highway projects increased, and the overall capacity utilization rate of domestic modified asphalt enterprises increased [24][28]. - **Supply**: - **Output, Maintenance, and Raw Materials**: The weekly output of domestic asphalt was 581,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,000 tons (2.1%) and a year - on - year increase of 146,000 tons (33.6%). As of July 31, 2025, the total inventory of 54 asphalt sample factories was 725,000 tons, a 1.5% decrease from July 28. The inventory in the northwestern region decreased significantly [32]. - **Start - up**: There are data on the weekly start - up rates of asphalt refineries in different regions [36][38][40]. - **Inventory**: There are data on the weekly inventory rates of asphalt refineries in different regions, including the total inventory rate, and the inventory rates in regions such as the Yangtze River Delta, North China, Shandong, Northeast, and South China [46][47][48].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic trends in China, highlighting both upward and downward movements in various sectors, including real estate, consumer goods, and infrastructure, while also noting the impact of external trade dynamics. Group 1: Economic Upturn - Land premium rates have rebounded to 7% as of July 13, with a two-week average of 5.9%, compared to 5.47% in June and 4.93% in May [2][10] - Domestic resource prices continue to rise, with significant increases in coal and steel prices, including a 1.6% rise in Shanxi thermal coal and a 6.7% increase in main coking coal prices [2][35] - Infrastructure activities are performing better than last year, with the oil asphalt operating rate at 32.8%, up 6.3% year-on-year, and cement dispatch rates at 40.1%, compared to 37.4% last year [2][16] Group 2: Economic Downturn - The Huachuang Macro WEI index has decreased to 5.96% as of July 13, down from 7.05% on July 6, indicating a decline in economic activity [3][5] - Retail sales growth for passenger vehicles has slowed, with a year-on-year increase of 6.6% as of July 13, down from 15% in June and 13.3% in May [3][9] - The decline in residential property sales has widened, with a 23.7% decrease in transaction area for 67 cities as of July 18, compared to a 17.6% decline in June [3][9] Group 3: Trade Dynamics - Port container throughput has decreased, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 3.2% as of July 13, down from 4.5% the previous week [3][20] - The number of container ships from China to the U.S. has also declined, with a 15-day year-on-year decrease of approximately 11.1% as of July 19 [3][21] Group 4: Debt and Interest Rates - The issuance of special bonds has accelerated, with 2.59 trillion yuan issued as of July 18, representing 59% of the annual target, faster than the 42% progress of the previous year [4][41] - Bond market yields have shown fluctuations, with the one-year, five-year, and ten-year government bond yields reported at 1.3490%, 1.5256%, and 1.6652%, respectively, as of July 18 [4][60]