Report Title - Asphalt: Demand Recovery, Sufficient Supply — 20250711 [1] Report Analysts - Zhang Yongge, Qualification No.: F0282934, Investment Consulting License No.: Z0011351 [2] - Zhang Yanwen, Qualification No.: F03088843 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - International oil prices are expected to remain low due to factors such as US sanctions on oil - producing countries and OPEC+ production increases. In the short term, there is uncertainty in the change of asphalt production capacity utilization rate, but overall supply is expected to show an increasing trend. The demand is in the critical period of the "14th Five - Year Plan", with infrastructure projects progressing steadily. The demand in the north may increase after reduced rainfall, while the demand recovery in the south is not obvious. In the short term, asphalt spot prices will mainly remain stable due to the game between cost and demand [5] Summary by Directory Spot Market - **Price**: As of July 10, the reference prices of asphalt in different regions vary. In Shandong, the refinery reference price is 3580 - 3700 yuan/ton, and the main - business reference price is 4050 - 4070 yuan/ton; in East China, the trucking transaction range is 3670 - 3850 yuan/ton; in North China, the heavy - traffic asphalt reference price is 3750 - 3760 yuan/ton; in Northeast China, the mainstream reference price is 3850 - 4080 yuan/ton; in South China, the heavy - traffic asphalt reference price is 3600 - 3680 yuan/ton; in Northwest China, the heavy - traffic asphalt reference price is 3650 - 4350 yuan/ton [3] - **Cost End**: The US plan to impose high tariffs on multiple countries has increased market concerns about demand prospects. The market expects OPEC+ to maintain a large production increase in September, raising concerns about supply surplus [3] - **Supply**: This week, some refineries in the Northwest and Southwest slightly increased production, and major refineries in South China and Shandong resumed asphalt production. The capacity utilization rate of 77 heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 32.7%, a 1.0% increase from the previous week. The weekly total asphalt output was 56.7 tons, a decrease of 0.8 tons or 1.4% from the previous week. Next week, Jiangsu Xinhai is expected to resume production, but some refineries in Shandong will continue to switch to producing residual oil, and main - business refineries in East China will operate at low loads [3] Demand - The total shipment volume of domestic asphalt enterprises was 39.8 tons, a 2.6% increase from the previous week. The shipment volume growth in East and Southwest China was prominent. In East China, the main refineries mainly shipped by ship, which increased the shipment volume; in Southwest China, some refineries increased production capacity and sold some goods externally, promoting the increase in shipment volume. The capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt was 14.4%, a 0.4% increase from the previous week. Next week, due to rainfall in some southern regions, the actual rigid demand is limited, while in the north, with less rainfall, market demand is expected to be slightly supported [4] Market Outlook - International oil prices are expected to remain low. The supply may increase, and the demand in the north may be slightly supported after reduced rainfall, while the demand recovery in the south is not obvious. In the short term, asphalt spot prices will mainly remain stable due to the game between cost and demand [5] Data Sources - Steel Union, Longzhong Information, Hongye Financial Research Institute [8][10][12]