Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that international oil prices have been fluctuating at high levels due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly involving Iran and the U.S. [2][9] - Brent crude oil futures settled at $109.03 per barrel, up $7.14 (7.01%) from the previous week, while WTI crude oil futures rose to $111.54 per barrel, an increase of $17.06 (18.06%) [2][24] - The report indicates a decrease in the number of global offshore self-elevating drilling rigs to 367, while the number of floating drilling rigs increased to 138 [2][28] - U.S. crude oil production remained stable at 13.657 million barrels per day, with an increase in active drilling rigs to 411 [2][37] - U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 5.073 million barrels (0.58%) to 877 million barrels, with commercial inventories increasing by 5.451 million barrels (1.19%) [2][57] - The report notes that the global crude oil in-transit and floating inventory reached 1.21 billion barrels, an increase of 10.929 million barrels (0.90%) [2][69] Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - International oil prices have been influenced by escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, leading to significant price fluctuations [2][9] Offshore Drilling Services - The number of global offshore self-elevating drilling platforms decreased to 367, while floating drilling platforms increased to 138 [2][28] U.S. Crude Oil Supply - U.S. crude oil production was stable at 13.657 million barrels per day, with active drilling rigs increasing to 411 [2][37] U.S. Crude Oil Demand - U.S. refinery crude oil processing decreased to 16.379 million barrels per day, with a refinery utilization rate of 92.10% [2][47] U.S. Crude Oil Inventory - Total U.S. crude oil inventories increased to 877 million barrels, with commercial inventories rising by 5.451 million barrels [2][57] Global Crude Oil Inventory - Global crude oil in-transit and floating inventory reached 1.21 billion barrels, reflecting a net increase [2][69] Refined Oil Products - In North America, average prices for diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel were reported, with diesel at $182.48, gasoline at $138.82, and jet fuel at $177.95 per barrel [2][77]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate strongly, with large fluctuations in the market. It is necessary to control risks and participate cautiously, while paying attention to the development of the Middle East situation [1] Summary by Relevant Directory Market Analysis - Supply side: Last week, the asphalt operating rate decreased by 2.5 percentage points to 21.8% week-on-week, 8.9 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at the lowest level in recent years. In April, the domestic asphalt planned production is only 1.527 million tons, a decrease of 440,000 tons or 22.4% month-on-month, and a decrease of 764,000 tons or 33.3% year-on-year [1] - Demand side: After the Spring Festival holiday, downstream industries gradually resumed work, and the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries increased. The operating rate of road asphalt increased by 4 percentage points to 14% week-on-week, returning to the level at the end of January. Last week, the national shipment volume increased by 14.66% week-on-week to 126,000 tons, still at a relatively low level [1] - Inventory: The asphalt refinery inventory rate decreased slightly week-on-week and remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [1] - Price: The asphalt price in Shandong region remained stable, and the basis was repaired to a moderately low level [1] - Raw materials: China's imported crude oil from Venezuela is expected to still be significantly lower than before the US intervention. Coupled with the current attacks on Iran by the US and Israel, the supply of raw materials in the Middle East will be affected, and the market is worried about the shortage of raw materials for domestic refineries [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures contract 2606 fell 1.53% to 4,512 yuan/ton, above the 5-day moving average. The lowest price was 4,440 yuan/ton, and the highest price was 4,630 yuan/ton. The open interest increased by 211 to 274,080 lots [2] - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong region remained at 4,420 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 06 contract rose to -92 yuan/ton, at a moderately low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: Shandong Shengxing switched to producing residual oil, and the asphalt operating rate decreased by 2.5 percentage points to 21.8% week-on-week, 8.9 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at the lowest level in recent years. From January to February 2026, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the actual completed fixed asset investment in the road transportation industry was -0.6%, an improvement from -6.0% from January to December 2025, but still showing a year-on-year negative growth. From January to February 2026, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the completed fixed asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 11.4%, a significant improvement from -2.2% from January to December 2025 [4] - Inventory: As of the week of March 27, the asphalt refinery inventory rate decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 17.1% week-on-week compared to the week of March 20, and the asphalt refinery inventory rate remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In March, affected by the complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the cracking spreads and premiums of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils reached historical highs and then slightly declined. The high - sulfur market was weaker than the low - sulfur market in March. High - sulfur fuel oil is gradually entering the peak - season fundamental logic, while the near - term supply of low - sulfur fuel oil remains tight [4][5]. - In the future, attention should be paid to the processing volume and export logistics of refineries in the near term, the demand - driving rhythm of high - sulfur fuel oil under the tight natural gas situation, and the negative feedback from terminal bunkering for low - sulfur fuel oil [5]. - The recommended trading strategies include a strong high - level oscillation for the unilateral market, paying attention to the positive spread opportunities of FU7 - 9 and LU6 - 7, and the opportunity to narrow the LUFU spread while focusing on the low - sulfur production reduction rhythm and the start of high - sulfur peak - season demand [7][41]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Introduction and Market Review - In March, due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the cracking spreads and premiums of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils reached historical highs. The high - sulfur cracking spread reached about $27 per barrel in mid - March, and the Singapore spot basis reached about $72 per ton. The low - sulfur cracking spread and Singapore spot premium also reached historical highs in mid - to late March. The high - sulfur market was weaker, with supply tension alleviated by Russian exempted oil, and high prices suppressing refinery feed demand. The low - sulfur fuel oil supply was tight both at home and abroad. In late March, there was some negative feedback from downstream demand, and the low - sulfur premium began to decline but remained at a historically high level [4][9]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis of Supply and Demand 3.2.1 Russia - In March, Russian refineries that were previously attacked gradually recovered, and the crude oil processing volume increased. The export of Russian oil products increased due to the exemption order, but the Baltic ports were attacked again at the end of March. The average crude oil processing rate from March 5th to 11th was 5.32 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 240,000 barrels per day. As of March 16th, the total export was about 1.95 million tons, with a daily average of 120,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18,000 tons (+17%) and a year - on - year increase of 27,000 tons (+28%) [15][16][17]. 3.2.2 Mexico - As of March 16th, the total high - sulfur export was about 280,000 tons, with a daily average of 174,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28%. In the week of March 6th, the high - sulfur export surged to about 210,000 tons. However, the total supply is limited due to the reduced production after the secondary device commissioning of Tula and Olmeca refineries [20]. 3.2.3 Middle East - Due to the intensification of the conflict between the US, Iran, and Israel, the Strait of Hormuz was closed, and some refineries in the Middle East reduced production or shut down completely. As of March 16th, the total high - sulfur export was about 1.02 million tons, with a daily average of 64,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 61%. The low - sulfur fuel oil export from Al - Zour refinery was stable but with a stagnant export expectation [23]. 3.2.4 Nigeria - After the secondary device of Dangote refinery resumed stable operation in mid - February, the low - sulfur production and export decreased month - on - month. In March, there was no low - sulfur fuel oil export, and the export to the Pan - Singapore area in February decreased by 70,000 tons to 80,000 tons [28]. 3.2.5 South Sudan - The export of Dar Blend crude oil gradually recovered, with a total loading of 1.8 million barrels in March, returning to the normal level of last year. India began to import and divert Dar crude oil [29]. 3.2.6 Singapore - As of the week of March 11th, the fuel oil inventory in Singapore reached 24.16 million barrels (about 3.8 million tons), a new high in four weeks. The import and export of fuel oil in land - based storage tanks increased. There are concerns about future raw material supply, and alternative supply sources are limited [31]. 3.3 Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - The situation of the Middle East conflict is volatile, increasing the risk of oil price fluctuations. The recent attacks on major Baltic ports in Russia may affect the near - term oil product loading and export. The fuel oil inventory in Singapore remains at a high level. As the second quarter approaches, attention should be paid to the start of power - generation stockpiling and import demand in South Asia, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt. The bunkering demand in Singapore may increase. The near - term supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is tight [41]. - Strategy recommendations: a strong high - level oscillation for the unilateral market; pay attention to the positive spread opportunities of FU7 - 9 and LU6 - 7; pay attention to the opportunity to narrow the LUFU spread [41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In March 2026, the asphalt price turned from weak to strong. At the beginning of March, due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and a sharp rise in oil prices, the asphalt market was just slowly recovering from the Spring Festival holiday, with weak downstream demand. The increase in asphalt prices was less than that of oil prices, and the asphalt crack spread dropped to a historically low level. From mid - to late March, refineries in the Yangtze River Delta, South China, and Shandong reduced production and supply, leading to inventory reduction and a strong rise in asphalt prices [4][11][34]. - The ongoing Middle East conflict increases oil price volatility and raw material concerns. In April, asphalt production is expected to further contract, providing strong support for the bottom of the asphalt price. Currently, downstream demand is weak, and the recovery is slow. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery after the temperature warms up [5][45]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In early March, the asphalt market was in the off - season, and the increase in asphalt prices was less than that of oil prices, with the asphalt crack spread dropping to a historically low level. From mid - to late March, refineries in different regions reduced production, supply contracted, and inventory decreased, supporting the strong rise in asphalt prices [4][11][34]. 3.2 Supply Overview - From January to April 2026, China's asphalt production is expected to be about 7.26 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.25 million tons (-15%). In April 2026, China's asphalt production is expected to be 1.27 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 980,000 tons (-44%). The planned asphalt production of local refineries in April is about 740,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 170,000 tons (-19%) and a year - on - year decrease of 310,000 tons (-30%) [15]. - In 2025, China's total asphalt production was 28.468 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.992 million tons (+12%). In 2025, China's total asphalt imports were 3.928 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 465,000 tons (+13.4%) [16][18]. 3.3 Demand Overview - In March 2026, domestic asphalt demand was weak, with obvious north - south differentiation. The overall demand did not reach the seasonal expectation, and the market trading atmosphere was cold. As of March 20, the operating rate of road modified asphalt was 10%, about 7 percentage points lower than the same period last year; the operating rate of waterproofing membranes was 36%, about 4 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The refinery's shipment volume was at a low level, with a week - on - week decrease of 37,000 tons (-9%) and a year - on - year decrease of 200,000 tons (-35%) on March 20 [28]. 3.4 Inventory and Valuation - In March 2026, the domestic asphalt inventory showed a structural differentiation of a first - decreasing and then - increasing refinery inventory and a continuously high social inventory. The overall supply - demand pattern was tight. The asphalt crack spread dropped to a historically low level, and the basis fluctuated sharply but showed an overall upward trend [32][33][34]. 3.5 Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - The ongoing Middle East conflict increases oil price volatility and raw material concerns. In April, asphalt production is expected to further contract, providing strong support for the bottom of the asphalt price. Currently, downstream demand is weak, and the recovery is slow. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery after the temperature warms up. - Strategy recommendations: 1. For single - side trading, hold long positions in BU2606 and pay attention to geopolitical risks. 2. For arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach. 3. For options, take a wait - and - see approach [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the asphalt market is expected to show a narrow - range oscillation. The asphalt 2606 contract is predicted to oscillate within the range of 4409 - 4655. The market is affected by multiple factors, including supply, demand, cost, and inventory. The supply pressure has been reduced recently due to refinery production cuts, but it may increase next week. The overall demand is lower than the historical average, affected by the off - season. The cost is supported by the strengthening of crude oil, and the inventory shows a trend of continuous destocking [7]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. The positive factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the negative factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward demand with the increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply**: In April 2026, the total domestic asphalt production plan was 1.527 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 440,000 tons (22.4%) and a year - on - year decrease of 764,000 tons (33.3%). The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples was 20.4338%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.34 percentage points. The shipment of sample enterprises was 126,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.66%. The output of sample enterprises was 341,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.26%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 1.2 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.18%. Refineries have reduced production recently to relieve supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - **Demand**: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 19.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.11 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of building asphalt was 5.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.29 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of modified asphalt was 3.1047%, a month - on - month increase of 1.98 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of road - modified asphalt was 14%, a month - on - month increase of 4.00 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of waterproofing membranes was 45%, a month - on - month increase of 9.00 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 497.43 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 69.70%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 844.9771 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 9.86%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to provide short - term support [7]. - **Basis**: On March 27, the spot price in Shandong was 4330 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 06 contract was - 202 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [7]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 1.214 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.59%; the in - factory inventory was 757,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.93%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 590,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.66%. The social inventory continued to accumulate, while the in - factory and port inventories continued to destock, which is bullish [7]. - **Market**: The MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 06 contract closed above the MA20, which is bullish [7]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net long, with a decrease in long positions, which is bullish [7]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the price, change, and basis information of multiple asphalt futures contracts, as well as the price information of some spot and related indicators such as registered warehouse receipts and monthly spreads [14][16]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China from 2020 to 2026 through graphs, which helps to analyze the price relationship between the spot and futures markets [18][20][21]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: The report shows the historical spread trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts of asphalt from 2020 to 2026 through graphs, which is useful for spread trading analysis [23][24]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The report presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2026 through graphs, which helps to analyze the price relationship between asphalt and crude oil [26][27]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The report shows the historical crack spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 to 2026 through graphs, which is important for analyzing the profitability of refining [29][30][31]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The report presents the historical price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2026 through graphs, which helps to analyze the relative price relationship among these products [33][34]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong from 2020 to 2026 through graphs, which helps to understand the price changes in different regions [36][37]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: The report shows the historical profit trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2026 through graphs, which helps to analyze the profitability of asphalt production [38][39]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The report shows the historical profit spread trends between coking and asphalt from 2018 to 2026 through graphs, which is important for analyzing the profit difference between different production processes [41][42][43]. - **Supply - Side Analysis** - **Shipment Volume**: The report shows the historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2026 through graphs, which helps to understand the supply situation [45][46]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The report shows the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2026 through graphs, which is useful for analyzing the supply of raw materials [48][49]. - **Output**: The report shows the historical weekly and monthly output of asphalt from 2019 to 2026 through graphs, which helps to understand the overall supply capacity [51][53]. - **Marine Heavy Oil (Maro) Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Output Trend**: The report shows the historical price of Maro crude oil and the monthly output of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2026 through graphs, which is important for analyzing the impact of raw material supply on asphalt production [54][56]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Output**: The report shows the historical output of local refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2026 through graphs, which helps to understand the supply contribution of local refineries [57][58]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The report shows the historical weekly capacity utilization rate of asphalt from 2023 to 2026 through graphs, which helps to analyze the production efficiency [60][61]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss**: The report shows the historical estimated maintenance loss trends of asphalt from 2018 to 2026 through graphs, which is useful for analyzing the impact of equipment maintenance on supply [63][64]. - **Inventory Analysis** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The report shows the historical exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2026 through graphs, which helps to understand the inventory situation in the futures market [66][67][68]. - **Social Inventory and In - Factory Inventory**: The report shows the historical social inventory (70 samples) and in - factory inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2026 through graphs, which helps to analyze the overall inventory situation [70][71]. - **In - Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio**: The report shows the historical in - factory inventory inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2026 through graphs, which is important for analyzing the inventory management of refineries [73][74]. - **Import and Export Situation** - **Export and Import Trends**: The report shows the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2026 through graphs, which helps to understand the international trade situation of asphalt [76][77]. - **South Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend**: The report shows the historical import spread trend of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2026 through graphs, which is useful for analyzing the price difference in imports [80][81]. - **Demand - Side Analysis** - **Petroleum Coke Output**: The report shows the historical output of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2026 through graphs, which helps to understand the demand for asphalt in related industries [82][83]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The report shows the historical apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2026 through graphs, which helps to analyze the overall market demand [85][86]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Highway Construction and Transportation Fixed - Asset Investment**: The report shows the historical highway construction and transportation fixed - asset investment from 2020 to 2025 through graphs, which helps to understand the demand for asphalt in infrastructure construction [88][89]. - **New Local Special Bonds**: The report shows the historical trend of new local special bonds from 2019 to 2026 through graphs, which is important for analyzing the investment in infrastructure construction and the demand for asphalt [90]. - **Infrastructure Investment Completion Year - on - Year**: The report shows the historical year - on - year change of infrastructure investment completion from 2020 to 2024 through graphs, which helps to understand the growth of infrastructure investment and its impact on asphalt demand [90]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The report shows the historical sales volume trends of asphalt concrete pavers, domestic excavators, and road rollers from 2019 to 2026 through graphs, as well as the historical monthly working hours of excavators from 2020 to 2026, which helps to understand the demand for asphalt in construction machinery [92][93][94][96]. - **Asphalt Construction Rate** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Construction Rate**: The report shows the historical construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 to 2026 through graphs, which helps to understand the demand for heavy - traffic asphalt [97][98]. - **Asphalt Construction Rate by Use**: The report shows the historical construction rates of building asphalt, modified asphalt, and other types of asphalt from 2019 to 2026 through graphs, which helps to understand the demand for different types of asphalt [100]. - **Downstream Construction Situation**: The report shows the historical construction rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2021 to 2026 through graphs, which helps to understand the demand for asphalt in downstream industries [101][102][103]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report presents the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 to 2026, including monthly output, import volume, export volume, downstream demand, social inventory, in - factory inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory, which helps to comprehensively analyze the supply - demand relationship in the asphalt market [105][106].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - International oil prices continue to fluctuate at high levels, with Brent and WTI prices recorded at 105.32 and 99.64 USD per barrel respectively as of March 27, 2026 [2][9] - The oil and petrochemical sector has shown mixed performance, with the oil and gas extraction sector down by 3.81% while the refining and trading sector increased by 1.08% [13] - The U.S. crude oil production decreased slightly to 13.657 million barrels per day, while the active rig count fell to 409 [43][43] - U.S. refinery crude processing increased to 16.598 million barrels per day, with a utilization rate of 92.90% [52] - Global floating and in-transit oil inventory decreased by 7.111 million barrels to 1.199 billion barrels [76] Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - As of March 27, 2026, Brent crude futures settled at 105.32 USD per barrel, down by 1.09 USD (-1.02%), while WTI crude futures increased by 1.41 USD (+1.44%) to 99.64 USD per barrel [26] Offshore Drilling Services - The number of global offshore self-elevating drilling platforms was 368, a decrease of 1 from the previous week, while floating drilling platforms increased to 136 [30] Crude Oil Supply - U.S. crude oil production was 13.657 million barrels per day, a decrease of 11,000 barrels from the previous week [43] - The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. was 409, down by 5 [43] Crude Oil Demand - U.S. refinery crude processing increased by 366,000 barrels per day to 16.598 million barrels per day, with a refinery utilization rate of 92.90%, up by 1.5 percentage points [52] Crude Oil Inventory - U.S. total crude oil inventory was 872 million barrels, an increase of 6.926 million barrels (+0.80%) [61] - The commercial crude oil inventory rose to 456 million barrels, up by 6.926 million barrels (+1.54%) [61] Finished Oil Products - In North America, the average price for diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel was 176.49, 128.44, and 165.02 USD per barrel respectively [82] - In Europe, the average price for diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel was 180.57, 138.05, and 210.57 USD per barrel respectively [86]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, global fuel oil prices continued to decline, approaching the levels at the beginning of the conflict. Due to increased exports from the Middle East and Russia, the spot market has been effectively replenished. Before the geopolitical issues further escalate, the market will reverse the previous risk premium. The price and crack spread of high - sulfur fuel oil declined significantly this week [4]. - In the long - and medium - term, for the price to continue to fall, the Middle East's exports need to gradually recover, or Russia's exports need to reach a historical high. As time passes, during the peak seasons of marine fuel and power generation, prices may regain upward momentum [4]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, in addition to Kuwait being blocked, some countries' low - sulfur exports are also showing a downward trend, especially Brazil, which has maintained stable exports to the Asian market. This will keep the Asia - Pacific spot market tight. However, the east - west arbitrage window has shown signs of opening, which may attract more European spot goods to flow to Asia [4]. - In China, although market news indicates that major refineries tend to increase low - sulfur production in the future, actual processing data shows that some refineries' operations are still declining due to raw material issues. Whether sufficient supply can be maintained in April remains highly uncertain. The low - sulfur marine fuel spot in the domestic bonded area and the deliverable supply on the LU futures may remain tight in April [4]. - The estimated price range for FU is 4300 - 4900, and for LU is 5100 - 5800 [4]. - Investment strategies include: 1) Unilateral: Fuel oil prices may still correct in the short term, but the supply gap will keep prices at a high level. 2) Inter - period: The inter - period spread structure of FU and LU has returned to backwardation. As long as the spot supply gap caused by the conflict persists, the backwardation structure will continue. 3) Inter - variety: The crack spreads of FU and LU have temporarily fallen to a low level; there is a certain probability that the LU - FU spread will continue to narrow [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Supply - **Refinery Operations**: The report presents the capacity utilization rates of independent refineries, major refineries, and general refineries in China, as well as the maintenance volumes of global hydrocracking units, FCC units, coking units, and CDU units from 2018 - 2026 [6][7][8][11]. - **Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commodity Volume**: It shows the monthly production, domestic commodity volume, and low - sulfur production of Chinese refineries from 2021 - 2026 [15]. Demand - **Domestic and International Fuel Oil Demand Data**: It includes the monthly sales volume of fuel oil for ship supply in Singapore, the monthly apparent consumption of fuel oil in China, and the monthly actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China from 2019 - 2026 [18]. Inventory - **Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory**: It shows the inventory data of heavy oil in Singapore, fuel oil in European ARA, heavy distillates in Fujairah, and residual fuel oil in the US from 2018 - 2026 [21][22]. Price and Spread - **Asia - Pacific Regional Spot FOB Prices**: It presents the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Singapore and Fujairah from 2018 - 2026 [26]. - **European Regional Spot FOB Prices**: It shows the FOB prices of 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean from 2018 - 2026 [28]. - **US Regional Fuel Oil Spot Prices**: It includes the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, the cargo price of high - sulfur fuel oil in New York Harbor, and the price of low - sulfur straight - run fuel oil in USAC from 2018 - 2026 [30]. - **Paper and Derivative Prices**: It shows the prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur swaps in Northwest Europe, Singapore, and the prices of FU and LU futures contracts from 2021 - 2026 [32][33][35]. - **Fuel Oil Spot Spread**: It includes the high - and low - sulfur spread and viscosity spread in Singapore from 2018 - 2026 [42]. - **Global Fuel Oil Crack Spread**: It shows the crack spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe from 2019 - 2026 [43]. - **Global Fuel Oil Paper Month Spread**: It presents the month spreads of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe [44]. Import and Export - **Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China from 2018 - 2025 [48][49]. - **Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It includes the weekly changes in global high - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes, with data on major importing and exporting regions [51][53]. - **Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the weekly changes in global low - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes, with data on major importing and exporting regions [54][56]. Futures Market Indicators and Internal - External Spreads - **Review**: Recently, the domestic - foreign spot price spread has continued to decline, and the spread between futures prices and foreign spot prices has also been gradually narrowing [59]. - **Logic**: With the current geopolitical conflict in a stable phase, as foreign spot prices decline, domestic futures prices are gradually reversing more risk premiums. The relatively sufficient deliverable supply has led to a greater decline in the prices of domestic FU and LU, causing the domestic - foreign price spread to continue to narrow [60]. - **Price Spread Data**: It provides the domestic - foreign price spreads of 380 spot, 0.5% spot, and various futures contracts on different dates in March 2026 [61]. FU and LU Position and Volume Changes - It shows the position and volume changes of FU and LU from 2020 - 2026, including main contracts, continuous contracts, and first - month contracts [69][70][72]. FU and LU Warehouse Receipt Quantity Changes - It shows the changes in the warehouse receipt quantities of FU and LU from 2020 - 2026 [81][82].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the oil refining industry Core Insights - The demand side is showing signs of weakness, leading to a narrowing of profits in the polyester filament sector [2] - Domestic key refining project price difference as of March 27, 2026, is 2953.73 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 167.01 CNY/ton (+5.99%) [3] - International Brent crude oil average price for the week is 103.87 USD/barrel, with a week-on-week change of -0.70% [3] Summary by Sections Refining Sector - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has fluctuated, impacting oil prices; Brent and WTI prices as of March 27, 2026, are 112.57 USD/barrel and 99.64 USD/barrel, respectively [14] - Domestic refined oil prices have increased, with diesel, gasoline, and aviation kerosene averaging 8658.57 CNY/ton, 10253.43 CNY/ton, and 7200.52 CNY/ton, respectively [14] - The price difference between domestic refined oil and crude oil has expanded, with diesel at 3424.50 CNY/ton, gasoline at 5019.35 CNY/ton, and aviation kerosene at 1966.45 CNY/ton [14] Chemical Sector - Prices of chemical products have generally risen, with expectations of reduced production from refineries [2] - Polyethylene prices have increased, with LDPE, LLDPE, and HDPE averaging 11650.00 CNY/ton, 9005.86 CNY/ton, and 7600.00 CNY/ton, respectively [52] - EVA prices have risen to 12285.71 CNY/ton, with a significant price difference of 7051.64 CNY/ton compared to crude oil [52] - Benzene prices have slightly increased, with an average of 8457.14 CNY/ton and a price difference of 3223.07 CNY/ton [52] - Styrene prices have significantly increased due to production cut expectations, averaging 10542.86 CNY/ton with a price difference of 5308.78 CNY/ton [52]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate strongly, with large price fluctuations. The current supply - side pressure has not been substantially alleviated, and attention should be paid to the progress of the Middle East situation [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - This week, the asphalt operating rate decreased by 2.5 percentage points to 21.8% week - on - week, 8.9 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at the lowest level in recent years. In April, the planned asphalt production in China is only 1.527 million tons, a decrease of 440,000 tons (22.4%) month - on - month and 764,000 tons (33.3%) year - on - year [1] - After the Spring Festival, downstream industries gradually resumed work. The operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries increased. The road asphalt operating rate increased by 4 percentage points to 14% week - on - week, returning to the level at the end of January [1][4] - This week, the national asphalt shipment volume increased by 14.66% week - on - week to 126,000 tons, still at a low level. The asphalt plant inventory rate decreased slightly week - on - week and remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [1] - The asphalt price in Shandong is stable, and the basis is still at a low level. China's imports of Venezuelan crude oil are expected to be significantly lower than before the US intervention. The attacks by the US and Israel on Iran will affect the Middle East raw material supply, and the market is worried about the shortage of raw materials for domestic refineries [1] - Next week, Qilu Petrochemical will switch to producing residual oil, and the asphalt operating rate is expected to decrease slightly. The non - navigation of the Strait of Hormuz increases the expectation of refinery production cuts. After the Lantern Festival, terminal demand gradually recovers slowly, and the supply - demand situation of asphalt improves [1] Futures and Spot Market - The asphalt futures 2606 contract rose 1.05% to 4,532 yuan/ton today, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 4,433 yuan/ton, the highest price was 4,647 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 4,443 to 280,023 lots [2] - The mainstream market price in Shandong is maintained at 4,330 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 06 contract rose to - 202 yuan/ton, at a low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - Shandong Shengxing switched to producing residual oil, and the asphalt operating rate decreased by 2.5 percentage points to 21.8% week - on - week, 8.9 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at the lowest level in recent years [4] - From January to February 2026, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transportation industry was - 0.6%, an improvement from - 6.0% from January to December 2025, but still in a year - on - year negative growth situation. From January to February 2026, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 11.4%, a significant increase from - 2.2% from January to December 2025 [4] - As of the week of March 27, after the Spring Festival, downstream industries gradually resumed work. The operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries increased, and the road asphalt operating rate increased by 4 percentage points to 14% week - on - week, returning to the level at the end of January [4] - As of the week of March 27, the asphalt refinery inventory rate decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 17.1% week - on - week compared with the week of March 20, and remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt is expected to decrease next week as refineries have recently reduced production. The overall demand is lower than the historical average due to the off - season, and the inventory is in a state of continuous destocking. With the strengthening of crude oil, the cost support will strengthen in the short term. It is expected that the asphalt 2606 contract will fluctuate in the range of 4424 - 4662 [7]. - The bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward demand, and the increasing expectation of economic recession in Europe and the United States. The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [10][11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In March 2026, the total domestic asphalt production was 2.187 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 251,000 tons (13.0%) and a year - on - year decrease of 43,000 tons (1.9%). The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week was 22.7709%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.80 percentage points. The shipment of sample enterprises was 10,989 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 37.59%. The output of sample enterprises was 380,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.31%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 1.163 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.96% [7]. - **Demand**: The开工率 of heavy - traffic asphalt was 21.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.05 percentage points; the开工率 of building asphalt was 4.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.32 percentage points; the开工率 of modified asphalt was 1.128%, a month - on - month increase of 0.40 percentage points; the开工率 of road - modified asphalt was 10%, a month - on - month increase of 1.00 percentage points; the开工率 of waterproofing membranes was 36%, a month - on - month increase of 3.00 percentage points. All were lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The daily processing profit of asphalt was - 686.52 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 769.12 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 48.92%. The loss of asphalt processing decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the market in the short term [7]. - **Basis**: On March 26, the spot price in Shandong was 4,330 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 06 contract was - 213 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [7]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 1.195 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.36%; the in - plant inventory was 788,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.25%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 600,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25.00%. The social and in - plant inventories continued to accumulate, while the port inventory continued to be destocked, which is bullish [7]. - **Disk**: The MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 06 contract closed above the MA20, which is bullish [7]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net long, and the long position increased, which is bullish [7]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and price change rates of different contracts of asphalt futures, as well as the basis, some inter - monthly spreads, registered warehouse receipts, and the price of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong [14]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2026 [18][20]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2026 [23]. - **Asphalt and Crude Oil Price Trends**: The report presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2026 [26]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt and SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils from 2020 to 2026 [29]. - **Ratio Trends of Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil**: The report presents the historical ratio trends of asphalt and SC crude oil, and asphalt and fuel oil from 2020 to 2026 [33]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong from 2020 to 2026 [36]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: The report presents the historical profit trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2026 [38]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The report shows the historical trends of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2026 [41]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: The report presents the historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt from 2020 to 2026 [44]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The report shows the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2026 [47]. - **Production**: The report presents the historical weekly and monthly production of asphalt from 2019 to 2026 [50]. - **Price of Marrow Crude Oil and Monthly Production Trend of Venezuelan Crude Oil**: The report shows the historical price of Marrow crude oil and the monthly production trend of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2026 [54]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: The report presents the historical production of local refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2026 [57]. - **开工Rate**: The report shows the historical weekly开工rate of asphalt from 2023 to 2026 [60]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: The report presents the historical estimated maintenance loss volume of asphalt from 2018 to 2026 [63]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The report shows the historical exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2026 [66]. - **Social Inventory and In - Plant Inventory**: The report presents the historical social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2026 [70]. - **In - Plant Inventory Inventory Ratio**: The report shows the historical in - plant inventory inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2026 [73]. - **Import and Export Situation**: - **Export and Import Trends**: The report presents the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2026 [76]. - **Import Price Spread Trend of South Korean Asphalt**: The report shows the historical import price spread trend of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2026 [80]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: The report presents the historical production of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2026 [82]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The report shows the historical apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2026 [85]. - **Downstream Demand**: - **Highway Construction and Traffic Fixed - Asset Investment**: The report presents the historical highway construction and traffic fixed - asset investment from 2020 to 2025 [88]. - **New Local Special Bonds**: The report shows the historical trend of new local special bonds from 2019 to 2026 [90]. - **Infrastructure Investment Completion Year - on - Year**: The report presents the historical year - on - year change of infrastructure investment completion from 2020 to 2024 [90]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The report shows the historical sales volume trends of asphalt concrete pavers, domestic excavators, and road rollers from 2019 to 2026, as well as the historical monthly working hours of excavators from 2020 to 2026 [92]. - **Asphalt开工Rate**: The report presents the historical开工rate of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 to 2026, and the historical开工rates of asphalt by use from 2019 to 2026 [97][100]. - **Downstream开工Situation**: The report shows the historical开工rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2021 to 2026 [102]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report presents the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 to 2026, including monthly production, import volume, export volume, downstream demand, social inventory, in - plant inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [107].