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不要提前还贷!现阶段还有更优质的资产在
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-10 22:43
Group 1 - Tencent plans to repurchase HKD 112 billion worth of shares in 2024, with an expected reduction to HKD 80 billion in 2025 due to anticipated stock price increases [1] - The total dividend for Tencent in 2024 is projected to be HKD 34 billion, resulting in a cash dividend yield of approximately 0.7% based on an average market capitalization of HKD 5 trillion [2] - Tencent's adjusted net profit for 2024 is estimated at HKD 222.7 billion, with a projected growth rate of 12% for 2025, indicating a potential investment return of 14.3% when combining share repurchase, dividend yield, and profit growth [3] Group 2 - The current interest rate for existing housing loans is 3.2%, which is significantly lower than the expected return from holding quality assets like Tencent [3] - For individuals holding low-yield bond funds, it may be more beneficial to pay off loans early, as the returns from these funds are currently low, with annualized returns around 1.53% for short-term bonds and 1.28% for long-term bonds [4] - The domestic policy interest rates are expected to remain stable, limiting the potential for significant gains in bond markets, which may not exceed 2.5% in the near future [5] Group 3 - The financing balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets has increased, surpassing CNY 2.3 trillion, indicating a positive market sentiment [6] - The average housing prices in major cities like Shenzhen and Guangzhou have shown slight declines, with Guangzhou's average price decreasing by 0.3% [8][9] - The strategy of not selling land can create artificial scarcity, potentially stabilizing housing prices despite low demand [9]