On February 6, 2026, Larson Financial Group LLC disclosed in an SEC filing that it bought 61,408 shares of JBND in the fourth quarter, an estimated $3.33 million trade based on quarterly average pricing. What happened According to a recent SEC filing dated February 6, 2026, Larson Financial Group LLC increased its holding in JPMorgan Active Bond ETF (NYSE:JBND) by 61,408 shares during the fourth quarter. The estimated value of the additional shares purchased was $3.33 million, based on the average closin ...

证券研究报告 固收点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 24 日 25Q4 保险公司资金运用有何变化？ 投资要点： 张一帆 zhangyifan@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 根据国家金融监督管理总局数据，截至 25Q4，保险公司资金运用余额共计 38.48 万亿元，较 25Q3 增长 2.71%。其中，人身险公司资金运用余额 34.66 万亿元，财 产险公司 2.42 万亿元，分别较 25Q3 增长 2.77%和 1.18%。截至 25Q4，人身险和 财产险公司银行存款投资共计 3.04 万亿元，在此两类公司合计资金运用余额中占比 8.19%；债券投资 18.70 万亿元，占比 50.43%；股票投资 3.73 万亿元，占比 10.07%； 证券投资基金 1.97 万亿元，占比 5.31%；长期股权投资 2.83 万亿元，占比 7.64%。 截至 25Q4 险资（财产险及人身险公司，下同）债券投资余额同比增长 17.43%，其 中 25Q4 单季同比少增。截至 25Q4，险资债券投资余额为 18.70 万亿元，较 24 年 末（1 ...

当债市在政策与风险的博弈中震荡，如何在市场震荡中寻找确定性是核心问题。华商鸿悦纯债债券、华 商鸿丰纯债债券基金经理陈杰在定期报告中阐述了他的应对之道。 陈杰现任华商基金副总经理，华商鸿悦纯债债券型基金经理，华商鸿丰纯债债券型基金经理。具有超17 年证券从业经历(其中13.4年证券研究经历，4.5年证券投资经历)，具备扎实的投资研究经验。 陈杰在基金定期报告中回顾，2025年四季度，国内经济运行整体平稳，结构上仍有一定的分化，呈现出 外需好于内需的格局。出口对经济支撑较强，2025年1-11月出口累计同比增速为5.4%。消费增速边际放 缓，2025年11月社会消费品零售总额增速为1.3%，较前值下滑1.6个百分点。投资显著承压，2025年1- 11月固定资产投资累计同比-2.6%。物价方面，11月我国CPI环比下降0.1%，同比上涨0.7%，PPI环比上 涨0.1%，同比下降2.2%，物价整体维持偏低位运行，国内有效需求不足的现状仍待改善。货币政策维 持适度宽松，宏观层面流动性整体较为充裕。 债券市场方面，2025年四季度，债市利率在多重因素冲击下呈现出震荡格局。具体来看：10月，贸易摩 擦反复、央行重启买债， ...

Group 1: Bond Market Outlook - The current funding and fundamental conditions are favorable for bond assets, presenting a relatively good investment opportunity [1] - Year-to-date, the 10-year government bond yield has decreased from approximately 1.9% to around 1.8%, while the 30-year yield has fallen from 2.3% to about 2.25% [1] - The investment value of bond assets is marginally recovering in the first quarter, marking a rare window of opportunity for the year [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The funding environment remains loose, with government bond issuance expected to rise, and financial support for fiscal bond issuance keeping funding rates low [1] - The overnight rate DR001 has dropped below 1.3%, and DR007 has decreased to around 1.45%, indicating a significant narrowing of the policy interest rate spread [1] - Short-term fundamentals are likely to remain weak, with last year's fixed asset investment growth showing negative growth for the first time, and significant declines in real estate and manufacturing investment [1] Group 3: Industry Operating Rates - The asphalt sample enterprise operating rate was 24.5%, down 1.0 percentage points week-on-week, with a year-on-year growth of 10.9% [3] - The national electric furnace operating rate was 52.56%, down 8.98 percentage points week-on-week, with a year-on-year growth of 86.3% [5] - The operating rate of major steel enterprises' blast furnaces was 73.7%, down 0.1 percentage points week-on-week, with a year-on-year decline of 2.4% [8] Group 4: Production and Capacity Utilization - The steel mill capacity utilization rate was 86.33%, up 0.42 percentage points week-on-week, with a year-on-year decline of 0.6% [30] - The average daily crude steel production of key enterprises was 1.935 million tons in late January, down 44,000 tons from mid-January, with a year-on-year decline of 8.3% [54] - The average daily cement production was 8.118 million tons, down 654,000 tons week-on-week, but up 36.5% year-on-year [71] Group 5: Real Estate Market - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities was 1.395 million square meters, down 42,300 square meters week-on-week, but up 242.2% year-on-year [131] - The land transaction area was 12.0525 million square meters, up 4.4562 million square meters week-on-week [134] - The land transaction premium rate was 3.12%, down 0.45 percentage points week-on-week [135] Group 6: Logistics and Transportation - The subway passenger volume was 419.951 million trips, up 5.1195 million trips week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 44.8% [142] - The domestic civil aviation flight execution was 100,919 flights, up 6.7% week-on-week, but down 1.5% year-on-year [146] - The port cargo throughput was 281.597 million tons, up 9.27% week-on-week [151]

Group 1 - The overall risk in the cross-year bond market is controllable, with a short-term warm sentiment expected to continue. The focus is on the yield curve flattening or becoming concave, particularly the 10-2 year spread narrowing and the 30-10 spread maintaining around 40 basis points [1] - Recent changes in the bond market include an improvement in the supply-demand relationship for long-term bonds, a notable technical improvement, and a stable decline in funding rates, although future space for decline is limited [1] - The 10-year government bonds and policy financial bonds present a high cost-performance ratio, as their rebound has not fully absorbed the benefits of monetary easing, indicating clear potential for recovery [1] Group 2 - For medium and short-term bonds, the benefits of monetary easing have been fully realized, leading to limited downward space and insufficient odds for further declines. The long-term bonds are viewed with a neutral to optimistic stance, with moderate speculation on new bonds [2] - The 30-year government bonds are expected to mainly follow the recovery of 10-year bonds, with compression space in spreads but expected to remain above 40 basis points. Older 30-year bonds face liquidity issues and the challenge of "buying new and selling old" [2] - As of February 9, 2026, the National Development Bank bond ETF has seen a 0.01% increase, marking three consecutive days of gains, with a current price of 107.05 yuan and a one-year cumulative increase of 1.11% [2] Group 3 - The National Development Bank bond ETF has experienced a significant growth of 45.973 million yuan over the past three months [3] - The maximum drawdown for the National Development Bank bond ETF this year is 0.04%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.02%, and a recovery period of 5 days [3] Group 4 - The management fee for the National Development Bank bond ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05% [4] - As of February 9, 2026, the tracking error for the National Development Bank bond ETF over the past three months is 0.009%, closely tracking the China Bond - 0-3 Year National Development Bank Bond Index [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the liquidity in the banking sector remains ample, leading to increased demand for bonds, particularly in the context of the recent operations by the central bank [2] - As of February 5, 2026, the 30-year Treasury ETF (511090) saw a slight increase of 0.01%, with a trading volume of 8.83 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 4.2% [1] - The central bank conducted a 1,185 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a total net injection of 645 billion yuan for the day [1] Group 2 - The central bank's bond purchases have increased since January compared to the end of the previous year, indicating a proactive liquidity injection [2] - The marginal bidding rate for MLF may also be on a downward trend, suggesting a continued easing of monetary policy [2] - The 30-year Treasury ETF closely tracks the China Bond 30-Year Treasury Index, which consists of publicly issued 30-year government bonds, serving as a benchmark for this type of investment [2]

Core Viewpoint - Min Yin Capital (01141) announced the purchase of bonds by its wholly-owned subsidiary, Min Yin Investment (Hong Kong), on the over-the-counter market, indicating a strategic investment move [1] Group 1 - The company purchased bonds with a total principal amount of 6.9 million USD, equivalent to approximately 53.86 million HKD [1] - The total consideration for the bonds was approximately 7.15 million USD, or about 55.80 million HKD [1]

Group 1 - In January, 11 A-share listed banks were surveyed by 373 institutions, with a total of 49 survey instances, focusing on credit issuance, net interest margin, asset quality trends, and bond investment strategies during the peak marketing season [1] - The surveyed banks include Nanjing Bank, Ningbo Bank, Shanghai Bank, Hangzhou Bank, Suzhou Bank, Qingdao Bank, Qilu Bank, Xiamen Bank, Hu Nong Bank, Qing Nong Bank, and Zijin Bank, with six banks experiencing stock price increases, led by Qingdao Bank with over 16% growth [2] - Nanjing Bank was the most favored by institutions, receiving 76 surveys, while Shanghai Bank received 75 surveys, indicating strong interest in their credit issuance during the marketing peak [2] Group 2 - The focus of the credit issuance during the peak marketing season is on corporate credit, with banks reporting better performance compared to the same period in 2025, emphasizing manufacturing, infrastructure, and green transformation projects [2][3] - Shanghai Bank anticipates a continued decline in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) in 2026, which may lead to a slight decrease in net interest margin due to competitive market factors [4] - Qilu Bank aims to stabilize its net interest margin by optimizing asset management and expanding low-cost deposits while managing liabilities effectively [4] Group 3 - The overall pressure on net interest margin for listed banks is expected to ease in 2026, with a narrowing decline anticipated, supported by improvements in funding costs [5] - Shanghai Bank predicts that bond yields will continue to fluctuate within a range in 2026, with low likelihood of a trend reversal [5] - Hu Nong Bank plans to focus on bond investments primarily for allocation, while also employing advanced technologies for trading and risk management [6]

Core Insights - The bond investment strategies of small and medium-sized banks are shifting from capital gains to a focus on stable coupon income due to narrowing yields and limited risk management tools [1][2][3] - Banks are adopting a strategy of shortening duration, controlling positions, and focusing on short-term bonds, which reflects a broader trend affecting the entire bond market's funding structure [1][2] Group 1: Investment Strategy Adjustments - Many banks are strictly limiting long-duration trades and primarily investing in short-duration bonds while selectively using leverage [2] - Some banks have maintained their duration but reduced trading volumes, opting for other assets like deposits and interbank certificates during periods of inactivity [2] - The overall strategy has shifted towards a balanced approach due to internal profit pressures and market volatility, with state-owned banks enhancing trading attributes while rural commercial banks significantly reduce bond market allocations [2][3] Group 2: Market Conditions and Challenges - The bond market is characterized by limited returns, with the ten-year government bond yield expected to fluctuate within a narrow range of 30 basis points in 2025, leading to reduced coupon income [3] - Most small and medium-sized banks lack risk hedging tools, making them vulnerable to market fluctuations, as they do not have the qualifications for derivative trading [3][4] - The reliance on adjusting cash positions rather than utilizing sophisticated risk management tools has led to a cycle of forced selling during downturns and missed opportunities during upswings [4] Group 3: Asset Allocation Trends - There is a clear stratification in bond asset allocation among different types of banks, with state-owned banks being the primary holders of government bonds, reflecting their focus on asset safety and liquidity [6] - Joint-stock banks and city commercial banks have similar holding structures, primarily investing in government and local bonds, while rural commercial banks maintain a higher proportion of financial and credit bonds in pursuit of better yields [6] - The pressure to achieve profit targets often leads to a shift of funds into financial markets when credit lending falls short, but the subdued bond market limits the potential returns on these investments [6] Group 4: Future Outlook - The ten-year government bond yield has decreased from approximately 2.82% at the beginning of 2023 to 1.68% by the end of 2024, resulting in significant floating profits for banks [7] - As net interest margins continue to narrow and bond risk-reward ratios decline, banks are increasingly pressured to realize floating profits to secure returns [7] - If a rate cut window opens in 2026, the pressure to realize floating profits may ease as the bond market enters a phase of declining interest rates [7]

上周（1/19-1/23）债券型 ETF 资金净流出 156 亿元，信用债 ETF、利率债 ETF、可转债 ETF 分别净流出 117 亿元、净 流出 63 亿元、净流入 23 亿元。业绩表现来看，相较于上周，信用债 ETF、利率债 ETF、可转债 ETF 累计单位净值周 度涨跌幅分别为+0.11%、+0.26%、+2.65%。 发行进度跟踪： 上周无新发行债券 ETF。 存量产品跟踪： 截止 2026 年 1 月 23 日，利率债 ETF、信用债 ETF、可转债 ETF 流通市值分别为 1311 亿元、3829 亿元、734 亿元，信 用债 ETF 规模占比为 63%。相较于上周，利率债 ETF、信用债 ETF、可转债 ETF 流通市值分别减少 58 亿元、减少 91 亿 元、增加 43 亿元。从信用债 ETF 来看，基准做市信用债 ETF、科创债 ETF 流通市值分别为 1092 亿元、2950 亿元，较 上周分别减少 50 亿元、减少 74 亿元。 ETF 业绩跟踪： 上周利率债 ETF、信用债 ETF 累计单位净值分别收于 1.19、1.03。从累计回报情况来看，基准做市信用债 ETF 成立以 来回报 ...