瑞达期货研究院 「2025.06.20」 沪铅市场周报 沪铅产量低位保持，淡季需求压制期价 业 务 咨 询 研究员 添 加 客 服 :王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 来源：瑞达期货研究院 3 u 行情回顾：本周沪铅期货震荡走弱。从期货市场来看，沪期铅主力合约 2507表现活跃，本周跌幅 0.8%。市场交投平平，受到海外累库影响，沪铅价格震荡下行，但价格下跌幅度不大，国外高库正 压制价格上行，本周08合约涨幅也表现平平，目前来看，市场依旧处于一个谨慎观望状态，短期预 计有所压力表现，移仓换月近期即将开启，注意08合约表现。 u 行情展望：供应端原生铅炼厂受到铅价格震旦影响，开工率下滑，产量下滑。铅价小幅回暖，致使 再生铅亏损压力减小，废电瓶价格本周持平。随着二季度进入传统淡季，电池替换需求减少，再生 铅后续提产难度加大，整体再生铅供应增量有限。在此情况下，再生铅炼厂受亏损及原料制约，被 迫继续下调开工率。需求端看，市场成交整体偏淡，对铅价的支撑较为有限 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.06.13」 沪铅市场周报 沪铅产量低位保持，淡季需求压制期价 业 务 咨 询 研究员 添 加 客 服 :王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 来源：瑞达期货研究院 3 u 行情回顾：本周沪铅期货在国外期货价格影响下呈现震荡走强。从期货市场来看，沪期铅主力合约 2507表现活跃，本周涨幅0.98%。市场交投平平，受到海外去库影响，沪铅价格震荡上行，但价格 上涨幅度不大，国外高库正压制价格上行，本周08合约涨幅也表现平平，目前来看，市场依旧处于 一个谨慎观望状态，短期预计有所压力表现，移仓换月近期即将开启，注意08合约表现。 u 行情展望：供应端原生铅炼厂受到铅价格回升影响，开工率上涨，产量上涨。铅价小幅回暖，致使 再生铅亏损压力减小，部分企业下调废电瓶报价，废电瓶价格本周持平。随着二季度进入传统淡季， 电池替换需求减少，再生铅后续提产难度加大，整体再生铅供应增量有限。在此情况下，再生铅炼 厂受亏损及原料制约，被迫下调开工率。需求 ...

沪铅市场周报 沪铅产量延续下滑，铅价下周加剧波动 业 务 咨 询 研究员 添 加 客 服 :王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.06.06」 来源：瑞达期货研究院 3 u 行情回顾：本周沪铅期货在供需两弱格局下呈现震荡走势。从期货市场来看，沪期铅主力合约 2507表现活跃，本周涨幅0.96%。市场交投平平，受到国内宏观环境，以及海外需求走弱影响，价 格依旧处于承压状态，同时国外高库存亦压制价格上行，本周08合约涨幅也表现平平，目前来看， 市场依旧处于一个谨慎观望状态，下周07合约在技术形态上呈现三角形结构，预计将会有所表现， 期权波动率上看，可能也有明显动作。 u 行情展望：供应端原生铅炼厂受到铅价格不明朗影响，开工率下滑，产量下滑。铅价接连下跌，致 使再生铅亏损压力扩大，部分企业下调废电瓶报价，废电瓶价格本周持平。随着二季度进入传统淡 季，电池替换需求减少，再生铅后续提产难度加大，整体再生铅供应增量有限。在此情况下，再生 铅炼厂受亏损及原料制约，被迫下调开工率。需求端看，市场成交整体偏淡，对铅价的支撑较为有 限。充电桩以及汽车需求均出 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.05.16」 沪铅市场周报 业 务 咨 询 研究员 添 加 客 服 :王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 沪铅产量逐步下滑，海外库存压制铅价 「 周度要点小结」 u 行情回顾：本周沪铅期货在供需两弱格局下呈现震荡走势。从期货市场来看，沪期铅主力合约 2506 表现活跃，本周涨幅 0.39%。对等关税影响消退，市场情绪开始慢慢回暖，但是沪铅整体受 到国内需求走弱影响，价格依旧处于承压状态，国外高库存亦压制价格上行，本周价格波动反映出 市场多空双方力量的博弈，且空头力量在本周后期占据一定优势。 u 行情展望：供应端原生铅炼厂受到铅价格不明朗影响，开工率下滑，产量下滑。铅价接连下跌，致 使再生铅亏损压力扩大，部分企业下调废电瓶报价，废电瓶价格本周小幅下滑。随着二季度进入传 统淡季，电池替换需求减少，再生铅后续提产难度加大，整体再生铅供应增量有限。在此情况下， 再生铅炼厂受亏损及原料制约，被迫下调开工率。需求端看，市场成交整体偏淡，对铅价的支撑较 为有限 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the Shanghai lead futures showed a volatile trend under the pattern of weak supply and demand. The main contract 2506 of Shanghai lead futures declined by 0.21%. The impact of reciprocal tariffs subsided, and market sentiment gradually recovered. However, the overall price of Shanghai lead remained under pressure due to the weakening domestic demand. The price fluctuations this week reflected the game between long and short forces in the market, with the short - side force gaining an advantage in the later part of the week [5]. - On the supply side, primary lead smelters have basically resumed production, with an increase in the operating rate and output. The continuous decline in lead prices has expanded the loss pressure of secondary lead, and some enterprises have lowered the quotation of scrap batteries. As the second quarter enters the traditional off - season, the replacement demand for batteries decreases, and it is difficult to increase the production of secondary lead in the future. The overall supply increment of secondary lead is limited. On the demand side, the overall market transaction is light, and the support for lead prices is limited. In terms of inventory, overseas inventory decreased slightly, and demand was significantly affected by tariffs; domestic inventory increased slightly, but overseas prices restricted the upward space of domestic prices. In general, the Shanghai lead price may rebound slightly in the short term due to inventory reduction, but the rebound height is expected to be limited. Subsequently, it will still fall from a high level due to demand. The Shanghai lead market may continue the volatile trend in the short term [5]. - It is recommended to operate with the main contract 2506 of Shanghai lead fluctuating between 16400 - 17500, with a stop - loss range of 16000 - 18000. Pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control [5]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: The main contract 2506 of Shanghai lead futures was active this week, with a decline of 0.21%. The market was affected by weak domestic demand, and the short - side force had an advantage in the later part of the week [5]. - **Market Outlook**: On the supply side, primary lead production increased, while secondary lead was restricted by losses and raw materials, and the supply increment was limited. On the demand side, the market transaction was light. Overseas inventory decreased slightly, and domestic inventory increased slightly. The processing fee of lead concentrate remained low. The Shanghai lead price may rebound slightly in the short term but will fall from a high level later. The market may continue to fluctuate in the short term [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract 2506 of Shanghai lead fluctuates mainly between 16400 - 17500, with a stop - loss range of 16000 - 18000 [5]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price**: This week, the domestic futures price of lead declined, while the foreign futures price rose. As of May 9, 2025, the futures closing price (electronic disk) of LME 3 - month lead was $1970 per ton, and the futures closing price (active contract) of lead was 16805 yuan per ton. The Shanghai - London ratio of lead was 8.53 [7][11]. - **Futures Market Position Analysis**: No specific analysis content provided, only mentioned the position change chart [12]. - **Futures - Spot Basis**: The domestic futures premium strengthened. As of May 9, 2025, the Chinese futures premium was - 225 yuan per ton, and the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - $9.32 per ton [17][19]. - **Inventory**: Foreign lead inventory decreased, and domestic inventory increased. As of May 8, 2025, the total lead inventory was 47600 tons, an increase of 3300 tons; the total LME lead inventory was 255150 tons, a decrease of 9075 tons. As of May 9, 2025, the warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai lead was 38966 tons, an increase of 291 tons [34][38]. 3. Industry Situation - **Supply - Primary Lead**: As of May 1, 2025, the average operating rate of primary lead in major producing areas was 79.19%, an increase of 5.49% compared with last week; the weekly output of primary lead was 35900 tons, an increase of 3500 tons compared with last week [25]. - **Supply - Secondary Lead**: The capacity utilization rate and output of secondary lead decreased significantly. As of May 1, 2025, the output of secondary lead in major domestic producing areas was 24300 tons, a decrease of 700 tons compared with the previous period; the average capacity utilization rate of secondary lead was 48.9%, a decrease of 5.52% compared with the previous period. The number of secondary lead production enterprises increased. As of March 31, 2025, the total number of secondary lead production enterprises was 68 [29][32][42]. - **Supply - Trade**: In January - February, the export of lead ore and the import of refined lead increased significantly. In March 2025, the import of lead concentrate was 116000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.18% and a year - on - year increase of 59.69%. The export of refined lead was 2828 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 66.57% and a year - on - year decrease of 34.38%. The total export of refined lead and lead products was 16913 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 8.83%. The import of refined lead was 2868 tons, the import of lead alloy was 8988 tons, and the total import of refined lead and lead products was 3981 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 197.96% [44][46]. - **Demand - Lead Concentrate Processing Fee**: As of May 8, 2025, the national average processing fee of lead concentrate was 720 yuan per ton, and the average monthly processing fee (TC) of imported lead concentrate (Pb60) was - $20 per thousand tons, remaining flat overall [50]. - **Demand - Automobile Production and Sales**: In March 2025, China's automobile sales were 2.915 million, a month - on - month increase of 37% and a year - on - year increase of 8.2%. Passenger car sales were 2.468 million, a month - on - month increase of 36% and a year - on - year increase of 10.4%. Commercial vehicle sales were 447000, a month - on - month increase of 42.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.4%. New energy vehicle sales were 1.237 million, a year - on - year increase of 40.1% [55]. - **Demand - Battery and Charging Pile**: The price of batteries declined, and the growth rate of the number of public charging piles increased. As of March 2025, the number of national charging piles was 3899618. As of May 8, 2025, the average price of 48V/20AH waste lead - acid batteries in Zhejiang was 401 yuan per group [60].